Who will win Rookie of the Year in '25? We polled baseball execs

Last year wasn’t quite as successful as a majority of those polled picked Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the National League and Evan Carter won the vote in the American League. To their credit, Paul Skenes, the actual 2024 winner, and third-place finisher Jackson Chourio did get votes. Over in the American League, Wyatt Langford received votes in the poll and the eventual voting, even if he finished a distant seventh to winner Luis Gil.

Just how good are executives across Major League Baseball at predicting the future? That’s what we aim to find out in our annual MLB Pipeline Poll. Two years ago, they were on the money, choosing Corbin Carroll and Gunnar Henderson to win Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.

Will Roki Sasaki be the favorite to win Rookie of the Year in 2025 regardless of who signs him?

Lawlar missed most of the 2024 season, but did post an OPS of .899 in the Minors over 23 games. Still just 22, he needs to stay healthy and given a long-term opportunity to show what he can do in Arizona.

Those who singled out Chandler were likely looking at what Paul Skenes did last year. Even if Chandler starts the year in Triple-A (like Skenes did), he should pitch his way into enough meaningful innings to warrant conversation. The Pirates trading away Luis L. Ortiz in the Spencer Horwitz deal could have opened the door even more.

Campbell was MLB Pipeline’s hitting and breakout prospect of the year and finished with a .997 OPS. He might have a clearer path to the big league lineup because the Red Sox need a second baseman and right-handed hitting.

Yes: 79.2 pct
No: 20.8 pct

Who is going to win the rookie hardware in 2025? There is no clear-cut favorite in the American League, but there appears to be one in the NL, though the expected signing of Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki should vault him to the top of the frontrunners list in whichever league he lands.

Jobe, who tied Anthony for the most votes, got his feet wet late last year and then got thrown into the very hot postseason fire. He’s ready for a shot at the Tigers’ rotation. If Domínguez hadn’t gotten hurt, he probably wouldn’t be in this conversation anymore at this point. Mayo doesn’t have a clear path to a spot in the O’s lineup, but his power potential should be unleashed in the AL East full-time soon. Wilson also would have graduated if he hadn’t gotten hurt, but he should be given every opportunity to be the A’s regular shortstop in 2025.

We asked front office officials, from general managers to members of scouting, player development and analytics departments, a vast array of questions in this year’s survey. We received responses from all 30 organizations in the hopes of providing as large a cross-section of opinion as possible. Answers on many topics will be discussed in a week-long series, starting with their collective take on who will be the 2025 Rookie of the Year winners.

The main issue, of course, is we don’t know yet which league he’ll call home, and we’ll have more on that as the series continues. For now, the one conclusion is that wherever he goes, he’ll immediately be installed as a favorite to win some hardware for his rookie season.

Four of the players on the “leaderboard” have gotten some big league experience, with the expectation that they’re going to stick — assuming health — in 2025. The two newcomers are the two members of the Red Sox organization on the list. Both Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell made it to Triple-A last year and are very much knocking on the door. The Red Sox outfield is pretty full at present, but there clearly is some sentiment that the organization will make room for Anthony’s bat after he finished the 2024 season with a combined .894 OPS at age 20.

Dylan Crews, OF, Nationals, 50 pct
Matt Shaw, 3B, Cubs, 18.8 pct
Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates, 10.4 pct
Jordan Lawlar, SS, D-backs, 6.3 pct

Also received votes: Dalton Rushing, C/OF, Dodgers; Thomas Saggese, INF, Cardinals

Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox, 19.1 pct
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers, 19.1 pct
Jasson Domínguez, OF, Yankees, 17 pct
Coby Mayo, 3B/1B, Orioles, 14.9 pct
Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF/SS, Red Sox, 8.5 pct
Jacob Wilson, SS, A’s, 8.5 pct

Also received votes: Jac Caglianone, 1B, Royals; Nick Kurtz, 1B, A’s; Kumar Rocker, RHP, Rangers; Kyle Teel, C, White Sox

When the Cubs traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros, it made it seem much more likely that Shaw will get the chance to start at the hot corner in Chicago. The 2023 first-round pick made it to Triple-A in 2024, finishing with 21 homers and 31 steals, before starring for Team USA in the Premier12 Tournament.

Part 1: Rookies of the Year
Part 2: Prospects
Part 3: Tools
Part 4: Farm Systems

This vote left little question: Among those currently eligible for the award (more on that below), Crews is the clear favorite to win the award in the National League in 2025. He had a solid 2024 season in the Minors and got his feet wet over 31 games in the big leagues. He should be the Nats’ right fielder on Opening Day.

For those of you reading and wondering throughout, “What about Roki Sasaki???” here you go. The Japanese phenom is obviously a game-changer is so many ways and where the right-hander signs is one of the big storylines of this offseason. I actually posed this question first among the set about Rookie of the Year to separate him out, guessing (correctly) that Sasaki would likely be the choice for ROY for most surveyed.