2024 College Football selections Week 15

This week in college football Week 15 is going to be illuminating.

Supporters and bettors alike will see if Georgia can secure consecutive victories against Texas, whether Ashton Jeanty can accumulate even more yards in his already stellar season, and if my Ducks can stay unbeaten.

And wow, the suspense will be thrilling until the final whistle.

Let’s jump into my top bets for conference championship weekend.

(All times ET)

FRIDAY, DEC. 6

No. 19 UNLV @ No. 10 Boise State (8 p.m., FOX and FOX Sports app)

I will place a bet on the Mountain West Conference championship game.

This marks a rematch from a previous clash where Boise State triumphed 29-24 in Las Vegas. This game will take place on the famed blue turf of Albertson Stadium amid the chilly evening weather. I have a betting strategy where I typically go against teams from Southern California (like UCLA and USC) when they travel to the Pacific Northwest or mountainous regions in November.

The cold is harsh, and these teams used to warm weather are not prepared for it. The same applies to UNLV in this scenario.

The Rebels are venturing from their warm environment to the cold, and they might encounter a similar outcome. The reason I’m avoiding a wager on Boise State is due to my concerns regarding their recent performance. They’ve had narrow victories and struggle to cover against weaker teams. Their exceptional running back Ashton Jeanty is banged up but continues to receive plenty of carries. He’s had under 30 carries just once in the last seven matches. He will get his share on Friday night, and UNLV is aware of it.

Jeanty may still excel due to his remarkable talent, but UNLV will be prepared for him.

The Rebels will commit to stopping him, which will create some opportunities in the passing game for Boise State’s quarterback Maddux Madsen to exploit play-action opportunities. UNLV ranks 110th nationally in giving up pass plays longer than 10 yards. The Rebels are tied for 93rd in allowing pass plays over 20 yards and 57th for those over 30 yards. You get the idea; they concede a significant number of explosive passing plays.

UNLV focuses on halting the run, which opens more pathways in the air.

PICK: Maddux Madsen Over 219 passing yards

SATURDAY, DEC. 7

No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (4 p.m., ABC)

This SEC title clash will be thrilling as these rivals have faced off before this season.

Georgia emerged victorious 30-15 in Texas, showcasing their capability to disrupt the Longhorns’ offensive line and derail Texas’s strategy. The Dawgs surged to a 23-0 lead before Texas narrowed the gap to 23-15, only for Georgia to regain momentum.

Will Saturday’s game follow a similar trajectory?

I do not always think previous encounters should dictate current expectations. Teams often evolve between matches. This is particularly accurate regarding Texas compared to Georgia.

Following the game against Georgia, Texas made a commitment to establishing the run as a foundational element of their offense. Quintrevion Wisner, who has been the primary ball carrier for the Longhorns in the latter part of the season, has received at least 17 carries in four of the last five games, including a staggering 26 and 33 in his past two outings.

The Longhorns also boast a Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line, and even without left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr, they should find success in improving their rushing performance against Georgia. Effectively rushing the ball also reduces reliance on Quinn Ewers — which is Texas’s preferred approach.

Georgia’s offensive strategy similarly focuses on establishing the run for reasons akin to Texas, aiming to assert dominance at the line of scrimmage and minimize the visibility of Carson Beck. The more Beck throws, the more potential there is for trouble.

Both teams aspire to run the ball effectively against formidable defenses. They both wish to prevent their quarterbacks from making errors. I anticipate both teams will approach the game with cautious game plans to gauge one another during this rematch.

PICK: Under 23.5 first-half combined points scored by both teams

No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (8 p.m., CBS)

Rather than picking a side for or against my alma mater Oregon, I will focus on the total — specifically, the team total for Penn State.

I simply don’t think the Nittany Lions will be able to score more than three touchdowns in this matchup.

To begin with, this offense has had difficulty generating points in recent games against Ohio State (twice) and Michigan, both of which closely resemble Oregon. Despite Penn State showing decent offensive efficiency, they fall short in producing significant plays in these encounters. The Nittany Lions struggle with blocking effectively, making this a notable advantage for Oregon’s strong and deep defensive line.

Oregon’s defense is ranked second in havoc rate, and they just sacked the Washington quarterback 10 times last Saturday.

Penn State’s strategy revolves around successfully running the football and effectively utilizing tight end Tyler Warren. When the Nittany Lions fail to succeed on first down, they find themselves in undesirable passing situations.

Oregon’s pass defense is exceptional. In terms of pass defense, the Ducks rank first in target contest rate, second in targets that are wide open, fifth in passing rate, and second in adjusted completions. If they can effectively limit the rushing game and wide receiver productivity, while allowing Warren to do his thing, it’s improbable that Penn State will score 22.5 points.

PICK: Penn State Under 22.5 points scored

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL across five different teams. He was a right tackle for three seasons at the University of Oregon and earned second-team All-Pac-12 honors during his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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