1. Nationals — Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU

The Nationals continue to play things close to the vest, though most people’s guess in recent days is that the pick will be either Ethan Holliday, the top-ranked player in the class, or Kade Anderson, the top-ranked college pitcher in the class. I don’t have a strong read on which player is more likely to be the pick.

One interesting wrinkle to the Holliday/Anderson dynamic is that both players are represented by Scott Boras, which means Washington won’t be leveraging them against each other in any way. I still think Seth Hernandez is in play in some capacity here, but I wouldn’t say he’s the favorite. It’s also hard to discount Eli Willits as a real option.

2. Angels — Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

If Anderson doesn’t go first overall, I’d expect him to be the favorite to be picked second by the Angels. With that not being an option here, Liam Doyle could be a fit and has been tied to Los Angeles throughout the spring. It seems more likely today than two months ago that Doyle could slip a bit further down the board, but he does get lots of play for the No. 2 pick.

If the Angels are looking to hunt a deal, two college players who might be surprising but wouldn’t shock me are Tyler Bremner and Ike Irish. Those are both more speculative guesses than Doyle, which is why he’s the pick.

3. Mariners — Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State

I’m sticking with Arquette here for the Mariners. I’ve previously mentioned that Doyle could be a fit here, as well, but now I’m thinking Jamie Arnold might be a more likely pitching option for the Mariners if they don’t go with the top college hitter in the class. Eli Willits and JoJo Parker are both interesting hitting options for Seattle on the prep side, and Seth Hernandez would be, as well, but it sounds like he might be less likely to go here. It sounds like this could be the floor for Kade Anderson if he makes it here.

4. Rockies — Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater (Okla.) HS

The buzz for months now has been that Holliday won’t get past the Rockies if he’s on the board. That makes him the easy pick in this iteration. If Holliday is off the board, Arquette could be the top option. I’ve also heard the Rockies are linked to all three of the top college lefties in the class, though I might lean towards Doyle more than Arnold, and I’m not expecting them to have a chance at Anderson. 

5. Cardinals — Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS

There could be a run on high school shortstops starting here, and Willits is consistently the top name of the group after Holliday and a common link to the Cardinals. If he doesn’t go here, he has real landing spots with the Pirates, Marlins and Blue Jays. This also sounds like a potential landing spot for Arnold, giving the draft a real chance to see three college lefties taken in the first five picks.

6. Pirates — Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS

I’m sticking with Hernandez here, our top-ranked pitcher in the class. It sounds like he’s more likely to go in the 6-9 range, but he could have a real chance to go throughout the first 10 picks. The Pirates, Reds and Marlins sound like the most likely landing spots for him, with the Nationals and Mariners being options, as well, but less likely. Any of the top high school shortstops make sense for Pittsburgh potentially, including Willits if he’s on the board and either Billy Carlson or JoJo Parker if he’s not.

7. Marlins — Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS 

The Marlins have been heavily linked to high school shortstops. If Willits were available here, he would make a ton of sense. If he’s off the board, it’s hard to know whether the Marlins would prefer the best glove in the class in Billy Carlson or one of the better hit/power combinations in JoJo Parker. Both players get tons of mentions at this spot.

8. Blue Jays — JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS

Like with the Marlins, I am hearing a lot of prep shortstop noise with the Blue Jays. In this scenario, JoJo Parker is the best available. It sounds like Parker’s range could easily be in the 7-12 bucket, and more and more people have told me lately they don’t expect him to get out of the first 10 picks. If Parker isn’t the pick or if he’s off the board, Kyson Witherspoon is a name that makes a lot of sense. If Liam Doyle gets this far, he could be a fit, as well. 

9. Reds — Ike Irish, C/OF, Auburn

The Reds are one of the teams most heavily tied to Seth Hernandez, but I’ve got him going to the Pirates in this mock. So, I’ll stick with Ike Irish, who continues to get a lot of buzz inside the first 10 picks. In a class lacking on college bats at the very top, it sounds like Irish’s name is going to be quite popular for teams exploring hitting options on a deal. He shouldn’t fall too much further than the middle of the first round if he doesn’t go here. Jamie Arnold is another name who could make some sense. This could also be the high-water mark for athletic high school shortstop Steele Hall. 

10. White Sox — Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State

It sounds like the White Sox might be into both Billy Carlson and JoJo Parker but get a shot at neither in this mock. The best players available are college arms—Jamie Arnold, Kyson Witherspoon, Tyler Bremner—and the top pure hitter in the class, Texas prepster Kayson Cunningham. Cunningham’s market could start a bit later than this, and Arnold would fit Chicago’s low-slot lefty tendency. College hitting options could include Jace LaViolette, Gavin Kilen or Marek Houston. 

11. Athletics — Tyler Bremner, RHP, UC Santa Barbara

For four straight mock drafts I’ve had the A’s tied to hitters. I’m pivoting to Tyler Bremner in today’s mock, however. This might be towards the higher range of his outcomes if he doesn’t go on some surprise deal inside the top 10, but the A’s do sound like one of the teams most heavy on him. Bremner has a high-probability starter profile and could move quickly. 

12. Rangers — Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma

The Rangers sound like either the floor or something very close to it for JoJo Parker. He’s mentioned here with the Rangers as much as any team, but he also has a few possible landing spots in front of them. Generally, I hear the Rangers connected with bats more than pitchers—names like Ike Irish, Billy Carlson, Steele Hall, Daniel Pierce, Marek Houston, Xavier Neyens or Gavin Kilen could all make sense—but Witherspoon’s impact upside might be too much to pass up if he gets outside of the top 10. 

13. Giants — Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

The buzz on the Giants is that their pick will be much more of a “scout-driven” name than previous regimes, largely because of the presence of Buster Posey in the front office. Both Billy Carlson and JoJo Parker should be in play here if they’re available. This could be near the absolute floor for both, but they both seem unlikely to get here in the first place. The next tier of high school shortstops seems to start with Steele Hall and also includes Kayson Cunningham, Daniel Pierce, Gavin Kilen and Josh Hammond. Xavier Neyens could make sense as an upside play, while Houston might be one of the safest options as a sure-handed defender with contact skills. 

14. Rays — Steele Hall, SS, Hewitt-Trussville (Ala.) HS

The Rays sound enamored with Hall, who has some of the best athletic ability in the class and might be the favorite to be the fifth high school shortstop off the board. Like most of the teams in the 12-19 range, the Rays are linked to plenty of bats, and there aren’t any obvious arms that make sense in this range once Bremner and Witherspoon come off the board.

15. Red Sox — Gavin Kilen, 2B, Tennessee

We’ve mostly had hitters linked to the Red Sox this spring. I don’t have any strong reason to move off the Kilen pick from the last mock, so I’ll stick with it here. That said, all of the top college bats—Marek Houston, Brendan Summerhill, Wehiwa Aloy, Luke Stevenson Jace LaViolette—could make sense here, as could a high school shortstop like Steele Hall.

Over the last few weeks, California righty bat Gavin Fien has had a bit of a resurgence in buzz. Most of that Fien chatter has been connected to the model-heavy clubs in the 15-20 range. Many of Boston’s big-money high school bats have been on the younger side. I wonder if names like Hall and Fien (for this pick) or Slater de Brun and Brady Ebel (for a later pick) are more likely fits than Pierce, Cunningham and Sean Gamble—who are all 19 on draft day. 

16. Twins — Brendan Summerhill, OF, Arizona 

I’m hearing a lot of the same college profiles here with the Twins, including Summerhill—who might be the best pure hitter available—Gavin Kilen, Tyler Bremner, Ike Irish and Wehiwa Aloy. 

17. Cubs — Wehiwa Aloy, SS, Arkansas

With all of the college arms off the board, this range generally feels pretty hitter heavy. Aloy has a strong combination of athleticism, premium defensive profile, power and an improved offensive approach this spring. 

18. Diamondbacks— Kayson Cunningham, SS, Johnson HS, San Antonio

Among the first-round prep shortstops, Cunningham’s name seems to come up less in the first half of the first round than I would expect for someone who might be the best overall pure hitter in the draft. Arizona has been a team willing to take shorter hitters who can rake, and that is the player Cunningham is. If he doesn’t go here, he could slip into the 20s. 

19. Orioles — Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M

I’m sticking with LaViolette here, but I could see the Orioles going with other big power, big OBP hitters, including Luke Stevenson or Xavier Neyens. Steele Hall or Brendan Summerhill could also be options that make sense for Baltimore if either get here.

20. Brewers — Luke Stevenson, C, North Carolina

I’ve heard the Brewers linked to both of the true college catchers in the class—Luke Stevenson and Caden Bodine. It’s a bit odd, because they have equally-polarizing and contrasting offensive profiles that lead to lots of split-camp feedback, even if both are high-probability strong defenders at the position. Stevenson has more impact but comes with pure hit questions, while Bodine makes as much contact as anyone in the college class but doesn’t have much in the power department.

Marek Houston might not get past the Brewers if he makes it here, and Gavin Fien or Xavier Neyens could be an option on the high school side. If both Steele Hall and Daniel Pierce were staring at Milwaukee, I might lean towards Pierce.

21. Astros — Xavier Neyens, 3B, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS

The Astros are shaping up to be something of a wild card. They get tied to a significantly larger pool of names than most teams. Given their bonus pool capital—$7.2 million, fourth smallest—and lack of a second-round pick, they could make a lot of sense for an off-the-board play on a deal. Xavier Neyens, Gage Wood and Slater de Brun are some of the names linked to them who could all fit here as more obvious names. They’ve taken a college hitter in each of the last three drafts. The best available of that demographic could be some combination of Caden Bodine, Andrew Fischer, Ethan Conrad and Cam Cannarella.

22. Braves — Gage Wood, RHP, Arkansas

If the Braves want to continue their run of arms, they could be in a good spot, since most of the teams picking right in front of them sound focused on bats. Atlanta is consistently mentioned with big fastball arms like Gage Wood, Patrick Forbes and Kruz Schoolcraft, each of whom have a fairly wide ranges of outcomes. How teams view Wood’s medical is going to be key. Forbes had real struggles with control down the stretch. Schoolcraft has huge upside but could take some time to develop—which has not been an issue for previous Braves picks—and also might be a tough sign. Josh Hammond could also make sense for the Braves. 

23. Royals — Daniel Pierce, SS, Mill Creek HS, Hoschton, Ga.

Pierce has real action throughout the teens and into the 20s as we get into the most high school-heavy clubs in the draft. The Royals have more money to throw his way than any team picking after 15 outside of the Orioles and Brewers. This also feels like one of the more likely landing spots for Kruz Schoolcraft.

24. Tigers — Slater de Brun, OF, Summit HS, Bend, Ore.

The Tigers have been linked to de Brun so frequently, it’s hard not to think it’s just smoke. But it does sound like there is real interest here, even if this might represent the top-end of potential outcomes from the speedy center fielder. It would be hard to see the Tigers passing on Cunningham if he slides, and I wonder if the Tigers could also be one of the teams interested in trying to sign Coy James out of his Ole Miss commitment. That’s three hitterish preps. 

25. Padres — Sean Gamble, OF/2B, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla.

Gamble will be 19 on draft day and also has more pure hit tool risk than others in the high school class. But he’s massively tooled up with tons of athleticism, and the Padres gravitate towards those profiles. They also tend to penalize age much less than other clubs. Like the Astros, the Padres are in a tight spot because they lack a second-round pick and have just $6.6 million in bonus pool money to spend—the third-smallest pool in this year’s class. 

26. Phillies — Gavin Fien, 3B, Great Oak HS, Temecula, Calif.

Fien is getting some traction in the mid-to-late teens, but could easily wind up going in the final third of the draft. This pick would be reminiscent of their 2023 Aidan Miller pick, as both were prep hitters with unconventional swings who had down springs for different reasons but boast some of the best pure hitting ability and power in their respective classes. 

27. Guardians — Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina

Hitters who make a ton of contact always feel like good fits for the Guardians. Bodine could be at the top of that list, but Clemson outfielder Cam Cannarella also makes sense, as does Kayson Cunningham if he somehow manages to slip here. College bats with a bit more power, like Andrew Fischer and Ethan Conrad, could also fit. I haven’t heard Brady Ebel linked to Cleveland, specifically, but given his pure hitting ability, youth and makeup, he would feel like a Cleveland-ish pick to me as well, even if his realistic range sounds like it starts after this. 

28. Royals — Kruz Schoolcraft, LHP, Sunset HS, Portland, Ore.

If the Royals don’t grab Schoolcraft with their first pick they could still find a way to grab him here. Kansas City could also be interested in other prep arms like Briggs McKenzie or Aaron Watson, both of whom might be better fits as overpays a bit later. I’ll reiterate the Josh Owens connection here, as well. He’s one of the most interesting dark horse candidates in the draft.

29. Diamondbacks — Andrew Fischer, 1B, Tennessee

It’s tough for me to get a clear understanding of how narrow Fischer’s range actually is. While that maybe suggests it’s reasonably wide, his well-rounded offensive package feels like it should be a slam dunk first-round pick.

30. Orioles — Ethan Conrad, OF, Wake Forest

Conrad’s shoulder makes him tricky, but he should have real landing spots throughout the twenties and into the comp round. 

31. Orioles — Josh Hammond, SS/RHP, Wesleyan Christian Academy, High Point, N.C.

I’ve heard Hammond linked to the Braves and Orioles more than other clubs. He has some of the most exciting power potential in the prep class. Another prep bat with power who could fit for Baltimore is Iowa prep catcher Taitn Gray.

32. Brewers — Cam Cannarella, OF, Clemson

I’d originally had Caden Bodine at this spot, but a lot of people in the industry think he could be gone by this point. It would be interesting to think whether or not the Brewers would take both Stevenson and Bodine at 20 and 32 if they had the opportunity. I would guess they wouldn’t, but I don’t think it would be a bad idea, as catchers are rare and valuable. Instead of Bodine, how about another premium position defender and contact hitter in Cam Cannarella. 

33. Red Sox — Brandon Compton, OF, Arizona State

Compton had an up-and-down spring but finished with an exclamation point at the MLB Draft Combine and has huge power upside. Brady Ebel could make sense, as well. 

34. Tigers — Riley Quick, RHP, Alabama

Depending on what happens with Gage Wood, there could be something of a vacuum with college pitchers in the second half of the first round. Quick could easily jump into that. If not, he could make sense here with Detroit. 

35. Mariners — Anthony Eyanson, RHP, LSU

Like Quick, Eyanson is a college arm who could go higher than expected simply because the supply of college arms in the back half of the first round is lighter than what teams want. He posted a 3.00 ERA over 18 starts and 108 innings and was rock solid the entire season. 

36. Twins — Devin Taylor, OF, Indiana

Taylor sounds like a real fit for the Twins, who would be getting a no-doubt first-round bat with a more limited defensive profile and athletic foundation. 

37. Rays — Ryan Mitchell, SS, Houston HS, Germantown, Tenn.

Mitchell has been tied to the Rays for a while, and I’m going to stick with it here. I’ve heard a number of high school shortstops linked to Tampa Bay, including Brady Ebel and Jordan Yost. They could also be a fit for Taitn Gray. 

38. Mets — Tate Southisene, SS, Basic (Nev.) HS

Southisene’s athleticism and well-rounded game sounds like it could easily be a fit somewhere in the 30-45 range. 

39. Yankees — Aaron Watson, RHP, Trinity Christian Academy, Jacksonville

Watson’s a high school righty, but he feels more polished in some ways compared to some of the high-octane college arms the Yankees drafted last year. It sounds like New York might be one of the teams kicking the tires on him. 

40. Dodgers — Patrick Forbes, RHP, Louisville

I’ve mocked Forbes to the Dodgers in three straight mocks. Please don’t come after me if this doesn’t happen.

41. Dodgers — Quentin Young, 3B/OF, Oaks Christian HS, Westlake Village, Calif.

Young’s power and physical toolset is as exciting as any player in the class at this range, and he checks the athlete box that Los Angeles is always targeting.  

42. Rays — Alex Lodise, SS, Florida State

This feels low for an ACC shortstop who has a real chance to stick at the position and also comes with tools and some of the best performance in the country. I’ve just heard his name a lot less than I’ve been expecting to. 

43. Marlins — Dax Kilby, SS, Newnan (Ga.) HS

There are a lot of high school shortstops associated with the Marlins. Kilby has a great frame and a well-rounded game. Coy James could also be a fit and is probably a better hitter than Carter Johnson was at the same time.