Noah Schultz, LHP, White Sox

The White Sox lefthander has been one of the most celebrated pitching prospects in recent seasons (he’s No. 15 on the BA Top 100 Prospects list), but his lack of track record led to questions entering the season. While Schultz has shown an ability to handle more innings this season, pitching into the fifth inning or later in four out of seven starts, his command has been shaky with a 12.8% walk rate.

As far as the stuff, goes Schultz is still in the neighborhood of last year’s markers, but his velocity is down slightly on his two-seam fastball and slider. Those two pitches are his primary offerings. Both his slider and two-seamer generate a tremendous amount of horizontal movement, with each pitch moving heavily to each side of the plate. The sinker sits 94-95 mph with an average of 16 inches of horizontal break and eight inches of vertical break. His slider works the opposite side of the plate, moving 13 inches gloveside with -4 inches of vertical break. The slider has not generated the whiffs it has in previous seasons, as his whiff rate is down from 41% in 2024 to 26% in 2025. His two-seam has been more effective this season, however, generating more whiffs (29%) than in previous years.

Schultz has also leaned more into his cutter, upping the usage from under 10% in 2024 to 20% in 2025. The cutter sits 89-91 mph with around nine inches of ride and nearly zero horizontal break. He’s used the changeup far less this season, and it lacks vertical and velocity separation from the fastball.

Overall, Schultz’s command has been his biggest bugaboo this season, as he’s struggled to land his pitches consistently in the zone. 

Chase Burns, RHP, Reds

The Reds 2024 first-round pick was the No. 2 overall selection in the draft and signed for a record bonus of $9.25 million. After being held back post-draft, Burns made his professional debut earlier this season. So far so good, as Burns has made seven starts, pitching to a 2.35 ERA with 48 strikeouts to seven walks. Burns quickly worked his way through High-A and has now made three starts with Double-A Chattanooga.

So far, Burns’ stuff has been electric, giving rise to the belief that the Reds righthander could be the best pitching prospect remaining in the minor leagues.

He mixes four pitches: a four-seam fastball, slider, changeup and curveball. His primary mix is his fastball and slider, which account for around 90% of his usage. Burns’ fastball is a double-plus offering sitting 99 mph and touching 102 at peak. It shows 18-19 inches of ride and two inches of horizontal, leading to heavy cut. So far, the pitch has generated whiffs at a rate of 28%.

His slider sits 89-91 mph with about an inch of drop and 6-7 inches of horizontal break. The pitch has dominated this season with a 74% strike rate (well above-average), 50% whiff rate and 54% chase rate—an elite blend of numbers.

Burns also throws a changeup and curveball, but each pitch is used less than five percent of the time. There are some questions regarding whether or not Burns truly has a third pitch, but his fastball and slider combination is elite. 

Thomas White, LHP, Marlins

The first time I saw White was during the summer of 2020. After the early days of the pandemic, it was the first game I had attended in close to a year. That day, a 15-year-old White dominated a lineup of high school seniors, as not a single ball was put in play. White continued to impress over the next three years, capping off one of the most decorated careers in Massachusetts high school baseball history.

Since turning pro, White has grown by leaps and bounds, and he’s added physicality to his 6-foot-5 frame in recent years. After a strong first full season in 2024, White has begun 2025 with High-A Beloit. Over six starts, he’s pitched to a 3.24 ERA with a 34.3% strikeout rate but struggled with control, posting a 14.8% walk rate.

While the control has been a struggle early, White has shown swing-and-miss stuff, mixing a four-seam fastball, changeup, curveball and slider. White’s fastball sits 95-97 mph with around 18 inches of vertical break and nine inches of horizontal break, resulting in a flatter approach to the plate. The pitch boasts a 38% whiff rate, but his command of the pitch has been iffy.

The changeup has become White’s primary secondary this season, and he’s seen success with it due to improved shape. He has created more vertical separation off of his fastball with a -3 degree difference in plane of approach.

His two breaking ball shapes are different from previous seasons. His curveball, which is his primary breaking ball, is generating more depth and horizontal sweep. His slider sits 86-87 mph with gyro shape, which is a departure from last season’s slider that was more of a cutter. While White’s command has been fringe this season, the evolution of his pitch mix is impressive. 

Hagen Smith, LHP, White Sox 

The second pitcher selected in the 2024 draft, Smith had a highly successful career in the SEC at Arkansas. After three appearances with High-A in 2024, he began 2025 with Double-A Birmingham. Smith has pitched to a 2.10 ERA over seven starts, but his control has been an issue with a scary 18.1% walk rate. While strike-throwing has been deflating, his ability to still generate strikeouts has limited the damage to his overall line.

Smith mixes three pitches in a four-seam fastball, slider and changeup. To begin the season, he’s been heavily fastball and slider, using the changeup less than five percent of the time. His fastball has sat 93-95 mph with 15-16 inches of vertical break and 11-12 inches of horizontal movement. His 5-foot-5 release height allows the pitch to play above its velocity and pure movement, as he generates a flatter approach to the plate. These traits have led to a plus whiff rate of 34% against the pitch this season. His command of the fastball, however, has been his greatest hurdle, as his 58% strike rate is well below-average.

Smith has shown better command of his slider, which in many ways has a similar profile to the “deathball” curveball that’s been popularized in recent years. It’s slurvy shape in the low 80s and has an equal amount of drop and sweep. Smith has commanded the breaking ball far better than his fastball to begin the season with a 60% strike rate (around average for a slider) and a 49% whiff rate (well above-average).

The development of a third pitch has been a question for Smith dating back to his amateur days, and it’s still a lingering question, as the changeup is not a major part of his plan of attack. 

Robby Snelling, LHP, Marlins

Our 2023 Minor League Pitcher Of The Year endured a difficult go-round in his second full professional season last year, as everything seemed to tick downward. After a trade to the Marlins at the 2024 trade, Snelling continued to struggle. However, following a full offseason with Miami, Snelling has returned to prominence to begin 2025. All of his stuff is better than ever, and the results so far have followed.

Snelling mixes four pitches in a four-seam fastball, curveball, changeup and newly-added slider. The fastball is up 1-2 mph on average with a spin rate that’s increased by 200 rpm. These added traits have led to not only more ride on the pitch but also a flatter plane of approach to the plate. His whiff rate on the pitch has taken a noticeable jump from 22% in 2024 to 27% in 2025.

His curveball has also added spin and some velocity, leading to improved results, as he’s generated more swings and chases. His changeup has taken a step forward, too, as he’s killing more lift on the pitch while creating more vertical and velocity separation. His whiff rate against the changeup has nearly tripled this season, giving him a true third pitch and a way to pacify righthanded hitters.

His slider is still only used around 12% of the time, but it has become a more significant piece of his arsenal. The pitch sits 84-86 mph with true gyro shape. While it has not generated a ton of whiffs, it is another option and a bridge pitch between his fastball and slider.

With good command, an improving arsenal and a new fourth pitch, Snelling is back on track for a midrotation spot in the coming years.

Ryan Sloan, RHP, Mariners

Sloan’s arm strength and pure power is tantalizing. The 2024 second-round pick from the Illinois prep ranks has begun his professional career with Low-A Modesto to begin the season. Over five starts, he has struck out 23 batters across 20.1 innings while pitching to a 3.54 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Sloan has shown command of his four-pitch mix with a 7.1% walk rate to begin his career. His pitch mix features plus velocity and power, but his shapes still leave something to be desired.

Sloan mixes a four-seam fastball, slider, cutter and changeup, with his fastball and slider seeing just under 90% of his usage at present. His fastball sits 95-97 mph and touches 98 at peak, but it shows below-average shape with between 12-13 inches of vertical break from a 5-foot-5 release point. The fastball has been well-commanded with a 71% strike rate and 60% zone rate, and it’s missed an average amount of bats with a 23% whiff rate. It’s lack of ride, sink or run, however, give it questionable shape.

His primary secondary is his slider, a low-to-mid-80s sweeper with an average of 14-15 inches of horizontal break and 2-3 inches of drop. It has been his primary whiff-generating pitch with a 48% whiff rate and a 40% chase rate. The slider is performing like a plus pitch at present and will be a primary piece of his arsenal going forward.

Sloan’s cutter looks like a bridge pitch between his slider and fastball and, in many ways, it resembles more of a gyro slider than a cutter. The changeup is his most interesting pitch, as he boasts traits that could project success in the future. His low spin rate of 1050-1100 rpm is almost splitter-like and it generates 12-13 inches of armside run and a negative vertical break. While the velocity separation off the fastball is minimal, his vertical separation is substantial, hinting at future success.

Sloan very much looks like a talented prospect whose arsenal is not yet fully formed.   

Payton Tolle, LHP, Red Sox

The Red Sox targeted the former two-way player in the second round last July, signing him for a bonus of $2 million out of TCU. Entering 2025, it’s the first season of Tolle’s life where he’s been a pitcher only. With this move the results have followed.

Assigned to High-A Greenville to begin the season, Tolle has made five starts as a professional. After a rough first outing in which the lefty allowed six earned runs over 1.2 innings, Tolle has allowed just two runs in his subsequent 18 innings while racking up 31 strikeouts to three walks and 12 hits. It’s been an impressive run for Tolle, who leads a talented group of Red Sox pitchers in the lower levels.

Mixing four pitches, Tolle throws a four-seam fastball, gyro slider, sweeper and changeup. The fastball is the selling point, as his velocity is up a couple ticks from last year with the four-seam fastball now sitting 93-95 mph. Outlier extension on the pitch of nearly seven-and-a-half feet allows Tolle to generate a flat plane of approach to the plate, giving him the ability to eat up barrels at the top of the zone. So far on the season, the pitch has a 50% whiff rate with strong command metrics, giving it the look of potential plus pitch when you factor in his 17 inches of induced vertical break from a 5-foot-7 release height.

Tolle’s pair of breaking ball shapes are average but have the potential to improve with added power. His changeup is a fringe-average offering that will flash average-or-better for spurts. Tolle has a starter’s build at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, and his fastball shows plus major league traits. Now, it’s simply a matter of developing his secondaries over the next year-plus. 

Brandon Clarke, LHP, Red Sox

The Tolle vs. Clarke debate has raged over the early part of the season. While Tolle ranks higher in our rankings, Clarke is certainly neck-and-neck with his fellow lefthander.

Like Tolle, Clarke generates outlier extension and has unusual traits for a lefthander. His fastball shape and release traits aren’t quite as outlier as Tolle, but his slider is the best pitch thrown by any Red Sox pitching prospect at present.

Clarke sits 97-98 mph on two fastball shapes, with his two-seamer getting the majority of his usage. His sinker generates around nine inches of vertical break with 12-13 inches of armside run. His four-seam has well below-average shape and lacks whiff potential despite its upper-90s velocity.

Clarke’s high-80s sweeper is his primary pitch, seeing a 42% usage rate. There’s a good reason behind its high usage, as it has an outlier combination of power (sitting 87-89 mph) and movement (10 inches of horizontal break on average). There are few sliders on the planet that move as much with that type of velocity, and the pitch has overwhelmed hitters across both levels of A-Ball. Clarke boasts an insane 72% whiff rate on a swing rate of 52% against the offering, absolutely gaudy numbers for any level of professional baseball. However, the numbers against the pitch have been heavily boosted by a 43% chase rate, leading some to question whether or not upper-level or major league hitters will bite on the pitch at the same rate.

Clarke also mixes a low-80s, two-plane curveball and changeup. However, each are used less than five percent of the time, and he’s shown an inability to land either.

While Clarke is one of the fastest-rising prospects over the first half of the season, his lack of fastball shape, questions around how upper-level hitters will be fooled by the breaking ball and checkered injury history as an amateur give some reasons for pause.