NIL
2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Way-too-early Bracketology projections for 68, 72, 76-team fields
After the final set of NBA Draft withdrawals became official, the picture of college basketball’s 2025-26 season became much more clear. With NIL drawing a large amount of talent back for an extra season, the top of this season’s bracketology contenders could be loaded.
The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm which ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the 68-or-more-team bracket in March. In the absence of those numbers for next season, bracketology must rely on preseason projections of how each team will perform with their incoming transfers and recruits.
Another wrinkle in the offseason is the NCAA’s pursuit of tournament expansion, with 68, 72 and 76-team formats all on the table in 2026. Here is a way-too-early look at the 2026 NCAA Tournament field based on what we know.
Bracketology
Projected 1-line: Purdue, Houston, Duke, Florida
Last four byes: Iowa, Clemson, St. Mary’s, Oregon
In if Field of 68: Vanderbilt, Virginia, USC, Kansas State
In if Field of 72: LSU, Maryland, Cincinnati, Miami
In if Field of 76: Georgia, Butler, SMU, Ohio State
First Four (Dayton)
16 Norfolk State (MEAC) vs. 16 Southern (SWAC)
16 CCSU (NEC) vs. 16 Merrimack (MAAC)
11 Vanderbilt vs. 11 USC
11 Virginia vs. 11 Kansas State
Midwest (Chicago)
St. Louis
1 Purdue (Big Ten) vs. 16 CCSU/Merrimack
8 Gonzaga (WCC) vs. 9 Ole Miss
Portland
5 Arizona vs. 12 Yale (Ivy)
4 UConn vs. 13 Akron (MAC)
Philadelphia
6 Wisconsin vs. 11 Virginia/Kansas State
3 Tennessee vs. 14 McNeese (Southland)
Buffalo
7 Texas A&M vs. 10 Clemson
2 St. John’s (Big East) vs. 15 Vermont (AEC)
1-seed Purdue

Purdue again brings back a wealth of returning talent, including multiple All-Big Ten selections from the past season. Head coach Matt Painter complements what he had with a pair of big-time transfer portal players and an intriguing international prospect.
2-seed St. John’s

Under Rick Pitino, there is no question that St. John’s will continue to invest big in the roster, which got multiple top-end additions which promise to pay off big-time this year. How those players mesh with each other and the returning talent will set the tone.
West (San Jose)
Tampa
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 Colgate (Patriot)
8 Marquette vs. 9 Oklahoma
San Diego
5 Illinois vs. 12 UC Irvine (Big West)
4 Kansas vs. 13 Murray State (MVC)
Buffalo
6 Creighton vs. 11 Vanderbilt/USC
3 Iowa State vs. 14 James Madison (SBC)
Greenville
7 Indiana vs. 10 St. Mary’s
2 Auburn vs. 15 Oakland (Horizon)
1-seed Florida

Fresh off a national championship, Todd Golden promises to get a large portion of his frontcourt back this season. While they lose a lot at guard, they restocked in the transfer portal with multiple big splashes and got depth in a pair of Top 50 recruits on the way.
2-seed Auburn

Auburn had to overhaul its veteran roster which made a deep NCAA Tournament run last season, and did so through the transfer portal. Bruce Pearl complemented some high-profile moves with a combination of Junior College players and incoming freshmen.
East (Washington DC)
Oklahoma City
1 Houston (Big 12) vs. 16 SEMO (OVC)
8 Missouri vs. 9 NC State
San Diego
5 Louisville vs. 12 Grand Canyon (WAC)
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 Charleston (CAA)
Philadelphia
6 Texas vs. 11 St. Bonaventure (A10)
3 Michigan vs. 14 Lipscomb (ASUN)
Tampa
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Oregon
2 Alabama vs. 15 North Dakota State (Summit)
1-seed Houston

Houston brings a solid combination of retuning production and incoming talent which centers on the No. 1 recruiting class in the On3 Industry Rankings. With head coach Kelvin Sampson running the defense, the offensive upside of these players could make something special.
2-seed Alabama

Alabama overhauls the core of its team with multiple starts aging out of college basketball, but gets a big boost with the surprise decision of Labaron Philon to return for a sophomore campaign. Under Nate Oats, a new group of transfers and highly-ranked freshmen look ready to contend again.
South (Houston)
Greenville
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Norfolk State/Southern
8 SDSU (MWC) vs. 9 Mississippi State
Portland
5 BYU vs. 12 Liberty (CUSA)
4 Michigan State vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Oklahoma City
6 Arizona vs. 11 Memphis (AAC)
3 Arkansas vs. 14 Furman (SoCon)
St. Louis
7 Baylor vs. 10 Iowa
2 Kentucky vs. 15 Northern Colorado (Big Sky)
1-seed Duke

Duke has a clear plan under head coach Jon Scheyer to surround talented freshmen with a specific mold of veterans from the transfer portal. That vision is clear again with top-ranked prospects helped by returning talent and role players who bring length and defensive intensity.
2-seed Kentucky

Kentucky enters Year Two under Mark Pope with high hopes that he can combine the culture of last season’s team with the influx of incoming talent. Multiple Top 50 freshmen round out a group of returning production and high-end transfer portal prospects.
NIL
Can I say it now. College football is losing me as a fan.
I don’t understand.
Overwhelmingly on this board the sentiment was to pay players. No forethought or implication considerations, just pay them. They deserved it.
Now, the aftermath isn’t so cozy anymore. I read where upwards of 70% of transfers will not receive a scholarship at the next school.
So they either get paid NIL riches or they find themselves in a pickle. In either case this is what the vast majority wanted.
Remember, you wanted this.
Ready shoot aim is eviserating college sports. These are minor leagues. Get what you can while you can. It’s a business now since NIL was introduced. Free movement has little to do with it. It’s all about getting it now
Remember y’all wanted this
NIL
Why college football fans should care about the transfer portal
College Football Enquirer co-hosts Andy Staples and Steven Godfrey discuss why college football fans should care about the transfer portal and all its storylines. Hear the full conversation on the “College Football Enquirer” podcast – and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube or wherever you listen.
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Video Transcript
We want to have a transfer portal discussion that is really not for recruitment.
It is for the mainstream college football fan.
Yes.
…who wants to know why all of this rigmarole matters.
And I feel like you’ve gotten enough evidence in the last few days, In the last few weeks, the last few months, to understand why this matters.
Mm-hmm.
Yeah.
Why, when, when a D2 quarterback from Ferris State commits to be the backup at Ole Miss out of the transfer portal.
Might be important.
…could be important later on.
Why, when the quarterback from a .500 Cal team decides to go to Indiana, and you may not have known who else was looking at him during his Recruitment, that it may matter, that he might wind up holding the Heisman Trophy.
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He might wind up destroying Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
So this matters quite a bit.
It does.
Quite a bit.
It matters, and yet, as the sort of Everyman proxy on this program, I think people are still learning how to, Pick up on the portal and figure out what’s important about it.
Like, I’ve had a lot of just college football dads in the real world just say, Like, “Hey, I, you know, I get it.
I, I get that Fernando Mendoza, I didn’t know who that guy was last year, and now he’s quarterback of probably the best team left in our tournament.
But am I, like, really fired up right now about The Cincinnati quarterback?
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Like, am I, like, “Why does my team need Brendan Sorsby?”
I think there’s, There’s a lot, there’s a lot that’s kind of lost in translation about this one.
Like, who to target, who to get excited about.
NIL
$2.1 million QB weighs 2026 NFL Draft decision after College Football Playoff loss
The offseason ahead of the 2026 season is eventful for many players. With the transfer portal open, thousands of college football players are explosing transfer options. That said, the NFL Draft opens for underclassmen on January 5th, except for CFP competitors, who may declare on January 23rd.
While only third-year players or later are eligible for the NFL Draft, there are still plenty of players trying to weigh the decisions to either return to school, hit the transfer portal, or enter the NFL Draft. Those players have the most complicated offseason.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson is perhaps foremost among those players weighing options. On3.com projects an NIL valuation of $2.1 million for Simpson in the 2026 season. That figure ranks 19th of all college athletes, and includes four college basketball players.
Simpson has also commanded significant respect as an NFL Draft prospect. Draft guru Mel Kiper has Simpson as the third projected QB on his 2026 NFL Draft board, trailing only Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore.
Simpson’s agent Peter Webb told On3, “No decisions have been made about Ty declaring for the Draft at this point, and he is still evaluating everything with his family and close advisors.”
The other issue here is that if Simpson’s value is $2.1 million, it would likely be more on the open market. Cincinnati QB Brendan Sorsby, for instance, has been valued by some at over $5 million. If that figure is accurate, it would not be surprising if Simpson commanded a similar value.
In 2025, Simpson took over at Alabama after throwing only 50 total passes in his first three years at UA. He passed for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns in leading the Tide to the College Football Playoff and a second-round battle with Indiana. With other QBs like Brendan Sorsby, Sam Leavitt, or others headlining the portal, it’s not hard to imagine that Simpson would be at the top of the group.
Meanwhile, 2026 NFL Draft valuation says that the pure finances of the decision could be tough. A $2.1 million price tag for 2026 would be the rookie scale amount for picks 39-41 of the Draft. On the other hand, $5 million would be the rookie scale amount for the 11th pick.
Simpson thus is stuck trying to firm up his NIL market situation, weigh his NFL Draft decision, and decide what role competing at Alabama versus potentially playing in the NFL would pay. It’s an interesting situation, but it’s also unsurprising that Simpson is still weighing his options.
NIL
The NCAA further fails high schoolers with G League Rulings
If the road to college basketball scholarships was not already difficult for high school players, the NCAA’s decision to allow NBA G League athletes to enter or re-enter college basketball has created another obstacle. One of the most impactful rulings of 2025, the policy arrives at a moment when NIL and the transfer portal have already reduced access to scholarships and roster spots. By granting G League players immediate eligibility, the NCAA further dilutes opportunities for first-time college athletes.
G League to College: The Precedent Is Already Set
The first notable example of this shift was Thierry Darlan. Darlan spent two seasons in the G League, appearing in 58 games. He suited up for Ignite during the 2023–2024 season and later joined the Delaware Blue Coats in 2024–2025. He was not on the fringe of the league. Instead, he emerged as a legitimate contributor and started roughly half of his games.
Despite that professional experience, Santa Clara granted Darlan eligibility for the West Coast Conference. Because Santa Clara carries a limited national profile, his return to college basketball drew little attention.
That changed when the NCAA restored eligibility for London Johnson at a true “blue blood,” the University of Louisville. Johnson’s case sparked national outrage and forced the college basketball world to confront a new reality. Players could now return to NCAA competition after playing in the NBA G League. The trend continued in November when BYU signed Abdullah Ahmed, a former player for the G League’s Westchester Knicks.
James Nnaji Pushes the Boundary Even Further
Baylor’s signing of James Nnaji brought the issue into sharper focus. Nnaji was selected 31st overall in the 2023 NBA Draft and later became part of an NBA trade in 2025. His move back to college basketball showed just how far the boundaries had shifted.
NCAA Responds as Backlash Grows
As concerns mounted, NCAA President Charlie Baker addressed the issue publicly.
“The NCAA has not and will not grant eligibility to any prospective or returning student-athletes who have signed an NBA contract,” Baker said. “As schools increasingly recruit individuals with international league experience, the NCAA is exercising discretion in applying the actual and necessary expenses bylaw. This ensures that prospective student-athletes with experience in American basketball leagues are not at a disadvantage compared to their international counterparts. Rules have long permitted schools to enroll and play individuals with no prior collegiate experience midyear.”
High School Players Were Already Losing Ground
Even before these rulings, opportunities for high school athletes were shrinking. The transfer portal now functions like free agency. As a result, Division I coaches-including those at HBCUs-often prioritize experienced transfers over developing high school talent. A brief review of HBCU Division I rosters highlights the impact.
Transfer Numbers Tell the Story
According to Real GM, a basketball tracking service, 99 MEAC players transferred from other institutions. In the SWAC, that number rises to 161. Together, those 260 roster spots no longer exist for high school athletes. Football numbers paint an even starker picture.
NIL Is the Driving Force
So what draws these players back to college? NIL.
The financial landscape has changed dramatically. In many cases, college athletes now earn more through NIL than NBA G League players earn through salaries. High-profile exceptions exist, such as Bronny James, whose endorsement portfolio-often linked to his father, NBA legend LeBron James-sets him apart.
BYU star AJ Dybantsa reportedly earns $4 million this season. Texas Tech’s JT Toppin is also positioned for a $4 million payday. When combined with what Duke’s Cooper Flagg earned last season, NIL compensation now exceeds typical NBA rookie salaries and far surpasses G League pay.
The Illusion of a Safety Net
NIL rumors have also fueled speculation about college athletics as a financial safety net. One widely circulated but unconfirmed report suggested Ohio State supporters planned to offer wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. more money than he would earn as a first-year NFL player. The goal was to keep him in school.
Harrison ultimately declared for the 2023 NFL Draft and was selected fourth overall by the Arizona Cardinals in 2024.
HBCUs Feel the Same Pressure
HBCUs face the same challenges and must “keep up with the Joneses.” The first nationally televised SWAC matchup of the season illustrated that reality. Bethune-Cookman defeated Florida A&M 87–83 in a high-level contest loaded with transfers.
Bethune-Cookman’s Arterio Morris, a transfer from Texas, scored 20 points. Florida A&M’s Jaquan Sanders, a transfer from Hofstra, led all scorers with 22. Most key contributors in the game came from the transfer portal.
Of the 28 total players on both rosters, only eight came directly from high school. That number even includes prep school players, who are not always truly straight out of high school. Florida A&M’s roster consists of roughly one-third high school players. Bethune-Cookman’s roster sits closer to one-quarter.
A Broader Concern Across College Sports
Across all sports, coaches increasingly worry that athletes prioritize NIL opportunities over skill development. Many cite this shift as a factor in the retirement of one of college football’s greatest coaches, Nick Saban.
After a historic run at Alabama, Saban stepped away from the program. During a roundtable discussion in Washington, D.C., led by U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, Saban explained his frustration.
“All the things that I believed in for all these years, 50 years of coaching, no longer exist in college athletics,” Saban said. “It was always about developing players. It was always about helping people be more successful in life.”
What Comes Next?
Baker closed by emphasizing that while the NCAA has lost control in several legal battles, it does not plan to concede this one.
“I will be working with DI leaders in the weeks ahead to protect college basketball from these misguided attempts to destroy this American institution.”
So what’s next? Perhaps LeBron James-who never played college basketball-and Bronny James-who left early and spent time in the G League-will enroll at the University of Arizona to play alongside Bryce.
At this point, what would stop them?
The post The NCAA further fails high schoolers with G League Rulings appeared first on HBCU Gameday.
HBCU Gameday
This story was originally published January 4, 2026 at 2:08 PM.
NIL
College football scout hypes up $3.3 million QB amid interest from major programs
Half the fun of the transfer portal is the endless evaluation. Considering a player in one system and projecting him into possible landing spots can make everything different. It’s why a Division II QB and a mildly above average ACC QB can morph into two of the best passers in the nation a season later.
ESPN’s Tom Luginbill has scouted QBs for over 20 years at ESPN. Luginbill was once a QB himself and where he once might have spent much of his energy scouting college QBs for the NFL Draft, he’s now contemplating the portal college football market increasingly.
Luginbill saw a standout QB he is impressed with in Cincinnati transfer Brendan Sorsby. Luginbill praised Sorsby’s “excellent size, arm strength, and mobility.” Sorsby also caught Luginbill’s attention as a “powerful runner” who “anticipates extremely well and helps players get open with his throws.” ESPN ranks Sorsby as the top prospect in the portal and Luginbill terms him “an instinctive player… with elite processing and navigation skills when pressured.”
On3 wasn’t quite as impressed with Sorsby. While the site’s NIL valuation estimator gives Sorsby a hefty $3.3 million valuation, he is ranked No. 15 nationally in the site’s transfer portal rankings. That’s behind other QBs like Sam Leavitt, Byrum Brown, and Dylan Raiola. 247sports ranks Sorsby second behind only Leavitt.
Of course, the bigger question than whether Sorsby is the best or second-best or even sixth-best portal prospect is where the passer will spend the remainder of his career. Unsurprisingly, that’s not very clear either. On3’s picks favor Texas Tech while 247’s picks favor LSU.
Among the other schools mentioned as possibilities for Sorsby have been LSU and Miami from one expert. Other rumors have circulated that Sorsby will command a payment of over $5 million for his final portal destination.
Sorsby started his collegiate career at Indiana, where he sat in 2022 and split time in 2023 ahead of the hiring of Curt Cignetti. Sorsby passed for 1,587 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2023. He continued to blossom at Cincinnati, throwing for over 5,600 yards and rushing for another 1,000 yards across the 2024 and 2025 seasons.
In his total college career, Sorsby has thrown for 7,208 yards and 60 touchdowns against 18 interceptions. He’s rushed for another 1,295 yards and 22 touchdowns. In 2025, Sorsby led the Big 12 in total touchdowns created (36) and yards per passing attempt (9.3).
He’s one of the most experienced and talented players in the portal and the evidence of Luginbill’s testimony certainly is unlikely to hurt his seven-figure NIL offers. Sorsby may end up pacing the NIL market in 2026.
NIL
No. 1 transfer portal player linked to four major college football programs
The NCAA transfer portal officially opened for all college football players looking to compete for different programs on Friday. The transfer portal will remain open until Jan. 16.
A myriad of players from all different levels decided to enter the portal in the weeks after the end of the 2025 regular season. Power Four quarterback transfers have been a major talking point, but plenty of other coveted offensive skill players are entering the portal.
One skill player that is sought after by multiple major college football programs is former Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman. He will have two seasons of eligibility remaining at his second school.
The 6-foot-3, 201-pounder arrived at Auburn as a freshman in 2024. He appeared in 10 of 12 games for the Tigers in his freshman season, catching 37 passes for 598 yards and eight touchdowns. He was named to the SEC All-Freshman Team for the strong start to his college career.
Coleman was Auburn’s most productive wide receiver in 2025. He grabbed 56 receptions for a team-high 708 yards and five touchdowns in his final season at Auburn. Head coach Hugh Freeze was fired following Auburn’s loss to Kentucky, and Coleman officially decided to transfer on Dec. 29, 2025.
Every recruiting service ranks Coleman as the No. 1 overall prospect in the transfer portal, something that will have some of the top programs in the country interested in him. Pete Nakos of On3 reported that four different schools are jockeying for Coleman in the portal.
USC
The Trojans have positioned themselves well enough to receive a visit from Coleman on Thursday. Quarterback play was an inhibitor for Coleman’s production at Auburn the last two seasons, but that would not figure to be an issue with Jayden Maiava set to return for USC next year.
2025 Trojans wide receivers Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane have both declared for the 2026 NFL draft, so Coleman could slide in to fill a need for USC. CeeDee Lamb, Hollywood Brown and Jordan Addison are among the wide receivers to play for Lincoln Riley and find success in the NFL.
Texas A&M

Coleman has a visit to Texas A&M scheduled for Sunday. The Aggies had Coleman committed to their 2024 signing class for four months before he flipped to the Tigers on Early Signing Day.
Texas A&M will return starting quarterback Marcel Reed for at least one more season. Reed has experience working with transfer wide receivers in KC Concepcion and Mario Craver, the former of which has declared for the 2026 NFL draft.
Texas
Steve Sarkisian has helped multiple high profile wide receiver prospects make their way to the NFL as an offensive play caller. 2020 Heisman Trophy winner DeVonta Smith, Xavier Worthy and Matthew Golden are among the wide receivers taken in the first round of the NFL draft and play for Sarkisian.
The return of an improving quarterback in Arch Manning figures to be a draw for high-profile portal receivers to Texas. Ryan Wingo will return for the Longhorns in 2026, but the second and third most productive receivers, DeAndre Moore Jr. and Parker Livingstone, are both heading for the transfer portal.
Livingstone issued a statement that said “some things are out of my control,” potentially implying he was asked to leave in favor of a transfer.
Alabama

If proximity to home matters, and Auburn was not going to be a good fit with Alex Golesh, Alabama is the only other option for Coleman in his home state. Of course, Coleman transferring to Alabama would add an extra level of intrigue to the 2026 Iron Bowl.
The quarterback situation in Tuscaloosa is less certain than the prior three schools competing for Coleman, as it is unclear what Ty Simpson will do in 2026. The Crimson Tide will lose its lead receiver from 2025 in Germie Bernard, but neither Ryan Williams nor Isaiah Horton appears to be going anywhere.
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