Ladies and gentlemen — we did it! The last mailbag before the first game week of the 2025 season is comprised entirely of questions about the 2025 season.
It was nice working with you, House settlement, NIL clearinghouse and CFP format debates, but your services are no longer needed here.
When was the race to the national championship this wide-open? For my entire viewing life (decades), I don’t recall more than a few teams having a realistic chance at the title. This year I count 10ish? — Anonymous
On the weekly Mailbag submission form, I always ask readers to include their city. It hadn’t occurred to me that I also need to say, please include your name.
You’re absolutely right about this feeling like an unusually wide-open field — beginning right at the top of this week’s preseason AP poll. No. 1 Texas (25 first-place votes) and No. 2 Penn State (23) are separated by just five points, the tightest margin since 1998. Meanwhile, six teams earned first-place votes — those two, plus Ohio State (11), Clemson (four), Georgia (one) and Oregon (one). That’s the most since 2016, when there were seven.
I’m surprised that 2016 would be an analog because that was smack-dab in the middle of the six-year Alabama/Clemson hegemony over the sport (LSU in 2019 excluded.) Those teams had in fact played in the national title game just the year before. But Alabama’s QB situation was murky (remember Blake Barnett?) and Dabo Swinney’s dynasty was just getting started. The Tide got 33 first-place votes, the Tigers 16, and then Baker Mayfield/Oklahoma (four), Jimbo Fisher/FSU team (five), Leonard Fournette/LSU (one), Urban Meyer/Ohio State (one) and Jim Harbaugh/Michigan (one) split the rest of the votes.
My 2016 season predictions are mercifully scrubbed from the Internet (I think), but that field would have felt much stronger than this one. Alabama was still a machine and most people’s default No. 1 every year. I don’t think anyone is suggesting Steve Sarkisian’s Texas program inspires that level of confidence yet. And even I, as someone who’s been on the Penn State bandwagon since January, do so holding my nose.
In the 11-year history of the CFP, no team from outside the preseason top 6 has won the championship. And yet, my list of teams that could pull it off runs 10 deep: Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Clemson, Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M, a dark horse that ranks fourth in Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio (82 percent).
A few of those teams will inevitably miss the Playoff altogether, and none of them are without question marks. But talent-wise, the gap between No. 1 Texas and No. 9 LSU, if it even exists, is a fraction of what it was in 2016 between No. 1 Alabama and … No. 9 Tennessee.
The Tide beat Butch Jones’ Vols 49-10 that season. Though Tennessee did go on to become both “Champions of Life” and champions of the Music City Bowl.
Stew: With both the AP and coaches’ preseason polls now out, it’s time for my annual question. Which top-10 team is most likely to finish unranked, and which unranked team is most likely to finish in the Top 10? — Nicholas R.
Thank you, Nicholas. The preseason would not be complete until I got asked this question.
Whoever I say for the first one, their fans are going to be furious. No one believes their preseason top-10 team could possibly finish the season unranked. But according to my colleague/AP poll aficionado Ralph Russo, it happens to an average of 1.7 teams per season. That includes two of last year’s preseason top-10 teams, No. 9 Michigan (8-5) and … No. 10 Florida State (2-10).
My leading candidate this season: No. 7 Oregon. Folks are placing a whole lot of confidence in QB Dante Moore, presumably because he was a five-star recruit, despite watching him struggle mightily as a true freshman starter for UCLA in 2023. We assume he’ll be better. But what if he’s not?
I realize it’s probably not smart to bet against Dan Lanning, who’s 35-6 through three seasons. I have little doubt Tulane transfer RB Makhi Hughes will be a star. But Lanning is banking heavily on several other transfers — offensive linemen Isaiah World (Nevada) and Emmanuel Pregnon (USC) and defensive tackle Bear Alexander (USC) — who have garnered considerable hype but are no sure things.
Dante Moore will lead the Ducks from under center in his junior season. (Soobum Im / Getty Images)
As for unranked to the top 10, I looked to the Big 12 to find someone who could be this year’s Arizona State. And that someone could be Utah. After three straight double-digit win seasons (not counting 2020), Kyle Whittingham’s team slipped to 8-5 and 5-7 the past two seasons. It felt like the Utes were in purgatory forever waiting on quarterback Cam Rising to be healthy. But former New Mexico OC Jason Beck and his star QB, Devon Dampier, have the ability to completely reinvent that offense. If Morgan Scalley fields his usual reliable defense, the Utes could challenge for the Big 12 title.
No. 17 Kansas State vs. No. 22 Iowa State in Dublin is the first Week 0 game between ranked opponents since 2000. It’s also potentially significant for the Big 12 title race. Yet it doesn’t feel like there has been much national attention on that game, with previews already looking ahead to Week 1 games like Texas at Ohio State. Is there a reason that game is under-the-radar nationally? — Aaron M.
We didn’t call it Week 0 back then, but you’re bringing back some great memories of those high-profile Kickoff/Pigskin/Eddie Robinson Classics.
The last “big” Week 0 game I remember was in 2004, No. 1 USC vs. Virginia Tech in Washington, D.C., when Reggie Bush caught three touchdown passes. Those games all went kaput the next year when the NCAA went to a permanent 12-game schedule, and Week 0 did not return until Cal-Hawaii in Australia in 2016, which helps explain the long drought.
To be blunt, the reason it’s flying under the radar is because it’s not a Big Ten or SEC game. K-State and Iowa State are good programs, but they are not big national brands. Outside of Colorado, there aren’t any in the Big 12 right now. I know in my head I’ve been thinking ahead to No. 1 Texas vs. No. 3 Ohio State myself. But come kickoff on Aug. 23, I’d imagine most college football fans will come to the realization that, wow, there’s a really good game on today.
In fact, I could have easily seen myself picking this to be the Big 12 championship matchup, but it’s tough to see that happening when one of the two is already going to be 0-1 in league play. The loser basically has no margin for error the rest of the way, especially if the two schools end up in a tiebreaker situation.
And if you’re a CFP aspirant from the Big 12, you’d better win your conference.
So needless to say, this is not Northwestern-Nebraska. Iowa State-K-State is legit high stakes. Tune in.
I need help. Penn State hasn’t had a preseason ranking or expectations this high in over a quarter-century. How do Alabama/Georgia/Ohio State fans handle this pressure regularly?! — Connor from Philly
It’s not the expectations they struggle with; it’s the accompanying despair when they’re not met.
I’d ask Georgia fans in particular how they managed those 40 years of letdowns between Herschel Walker and Stetson Bennett. Though I assume the answer is a lot of liquor.
Stewart, who is your SEC dark horse? What I mean by dark horse is a team that no one else is picking for the CFP? — Franklin R.
I may have given this away in the national champions answer earlier, but it’s Texas A&M. I’m sure someone is picking the Aggies to make the CFP, but they were picked to finish eighth in the SEC at conference media days last month. Not only that, 11 schools got at least one vote to win the championship, a list that included Vanderbilt and Auburn, but not Texas A&M.
Which seems odd, seeing as Mike Elko’s team went into the season-ending Texas game last year with a chance to clinch a spot in the championship and led the SEC in scoring (29.4 points) in conference games.
Even though it finished 8-5, A&M overachieved in Elko’s first season. I expect the Aggies to take a notable jump this season. They boast the highest returning production (71 percent) in the SEC, per ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s rankings. Marcel Reed seems to get overlooked in the SEC’s deep QB lineup, but the dual-threat sophomore has a chance to be special. He made eight starts last season and seemed to be learning on the fly. He was great against Florida, LSU and Auburn, while taking his lumps against South Carolina, Texas and in the bowl game against USC (those two interceptions).
If Reed becomes a more consistent passer, look out, because the Aggies could run it down people’s throats. Le’Veon Moss, Amari Daniels and Rueben Owens, a 2023 SEC All-Freshman pick who missed the entire 2024 regular season, are all back, as are four starters up front.
But any CFP prediction requires faith that Elko and DC Jay Bateman will get the defense shored up. The D-line, in particular, has a lot to prove after losing Shemar Stewart, Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner, all who went in the first two rounds of the draft.
We’ll learn a lot about the Aggies when they visit Notre Dame in Week 3. It’s tough to see a CFP path if they get blown out in that one. In conference play, they visit LSU and Texas but get Florida and South Carolina at home and miss Georgia and Alabama altogether. All in all, manageable.
Just saw the headline on The Athletic, “Submit a question for Stewart Mandel’s College Football Playoff.” Congrats on purchasing the naming rights to the Playoff! — Brad P.
Just trying to keep it out of Tony Petitti’s hands.
(No, it was a brain fart.)
What three teams have the best shot from the Group of 5 of making the Playoff? — Jim S.
Jim has become the Mailbag’s resident G5 zealot, asking a new question like this every week. I do like a good G5 question, but I have to spread the love around, Jim.
First, the obvious one: Boise State. Obviously, it will be a much different team without Ashton Jeanty, but we got a brief glimpse last year of then-true freshman Sire Gaines, Jeanty’s heir apparent, when he gained 110 yards on 12 carries — one of them a 38-yard touchdown — in the Broncos’ season-opener at Georgia Southern. He ended up redshirting following an ankle injury.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen did not get enough credit for his role on last year’s CFP team. Receiver Latrell Caples and tight end Matt Lauter were great, and there’s a lot of buzz around former Texas A&M transfer receiver Chris Marshall. The defense brings back a lot. But remember, Boise made its reputation largely off taking Oregon to the wire in Week 2, before the Ducks figured out their offensive line. This year’s equivalent is an Oct. 4 trip to what could be a highly polished Notre Dame team.
Maddux Madsen returns to the Broncos after helping last year’s team reach the CFP. (Joe Rondone / USA Today Network)
Next up: Whoever wins the AAC will be in the mix. Despite a lot of depth-chart turnover, my best bet is Tulane. Jon Sumrall is a fantastic coach, for one, and he solidified the QB spot by landing BYU transfer Jake Retzlaff. The Green Wave’s offense won’t be as explosive as it has been the past few seasons, but the defense could be outstanding. And they get three chances to prove themselves against P4 competition with Northwestern and Duke at home and Ole Miss on the road.
Finally, James Madison intrigues me. Quarterback Alonza Barnett was impressive last season but got hurt late, and now he’s in a fight for his job with, among others, former UNLV defector Matthew Sluka. The Dukes have two good running backs in Ayo Adeyi and George Pettaway. And unlike the typical Sun Belt school that gets blown out by a couple of SEC heavyweights, JMU, which upset North Carolina last season, is at Louisville, at Liberty and home against Washington State. That’s an ideal mix for pulling off an upset or two.
And if it ends up being someone other than these three … that will not surprise me. Most G5 teams now have very little continuity from one year to the next, with all the poaching. And their own portal adds are barely known outside of the staff’s own meeting rooms. Boise State is the one notable exception. It remains a destination school. The Broncos are in the best position outside of the P4 to become a regular CFP participant.
Stewart: It seems like the season previews for many of the preseason top-15 teams casually mention something like Team X “is replacing four offensive linemen and will have a new starting quarterback” or “will have eight new defensive starters.” Given that, do you think the preseason Top 25 should be viewed as an expectation of where teams are in Week 1, where they will be by season’s end, or a mix of the two? — Adam Z.
Every voter has a different approach. When I voted in the AP poll, back in the BCS era, I treated my preseason ballot as a starting point — like pole position in a race. It was an assessment of where the teams stand going into the season based on who they lost, who they have coming back, key freshmen/transfers, etc. How would I know who’s going to get better or who’s going to get worse over the course of the season?
Ralph, a first-time voter this year after 20 years at AP overseeing the poll, is taking a similar approach. “I did not assess schedules and project wins and losses,” he writes. “… Ranking Penn State ahead of Ohio State right now doesn’t mean I’m picking Penn State to beat Ohio State on Nov. 1. I’ll deal with that when it happens.”
To be clear: I do predictions. I’m working on my ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC predicted standings right now, to run next week. You will definitely find discrepancies between that and the last Top 25 I put out in May. That’s because I only now got in the weeds on teams’ schedules. And even when I do that, I look for possible upsets, long travel, someone playing on the road on a short week, etc.
But I don’t care how scientific one gets with their preseason ballot: This exercise is increasingly pure guesswork. Not as much at the top, where the leading programs have a baseline talent level from year to year and don’t usually experience massive roster turnover. I’m talking about the next rung or two down.
Case in point: Everyone keeps asking me how Bill Belichick is going to do in Year 1 at North Carolina, and the honest answer is, nobody knows. The Tar Heels have six returning starters total. They have a transfer quarterback, South Alabama sophomore Gio Lopez, who looked good as a freshman, but against G5 competition. Almost all of UNC’s key defensive players from last season have left, but that defense ranked 72nd nationally, so it’s possible the new guys are upgrades.
Then on top of that, when you start playing out the schedule, you see the Tar Heels are playing several teams — UCF, Syracuse, Stanford, Wake Forest — that may be even bigger mysteries than they are.
It honestly would be easier just sticking to a preseason Top 25, because you don’t have to put a predicted record next to the teams’ names. But people tend to remember when your No. 5 team goes 7-5 much more so than your 13th-place team in the Big Ten going 8-4.
Hypothetically speaking, a team goes 0-10 over its first 10 games, but just happens to play teams ranked 1 through 10. Furthermore, said team loses every game by one point. In Game 11, it beats the 11th-ranked team by 21 points. Are they the 11th-strongest team in the country? Should they be ranked No. 11? Should they be ranked at all? Should they make the 12-team CFP? — Donald B.
This makes my brain hurt. But I don’t think that school would care where it’s ranked. It would be too busy trying to hire a new coach.
(Top photo: Sam Hodde / Getty Images)
