NIL
College basketball winners, losers from House settlement decision
The historic House settlement decision came down last week, setting the tone for a new era of college sports. Athletic departments across the country now have a new set of rules to play by, from revenue sharing to roster limits, but it will not impact everyone the same way.
From sport to sport, the reaction will be different. In college basketball, there is widespread concern over how it could impact teams from the Power Four to the mid-major level. Clear answers might not emerge for several years as the adjustment it made, but the initial indicators point to clear winners and losers.
Here is a breakdown of which conferences and programs fit into each category moving forward.
Winners

Big East
The Big East conference enters the new era of college athletics with a unique position, bringing a group of programs which prioritize basketball over football into a world which artificially caps the ability of schools to invest in both. While the conversation surrounding the benefit could be outsized, it provides each coach with an easier view of the change.
Where the conversation on benefit moves past reality comes with the $20.5 million number. While that is the maximum, it is based on the incoming revenue. In the case of the Big East, the current TV deal disperses about $7 million to each school per year which is significantly less than the multi-sport conferences. This is not the full budget available, but is the largest sum of guaranteed money each school can count on.
Early projections for elite Power Four schools, which would have the full – or close to the full – sum, sit somewhere between $10-15 million to run football. The gap would then exist from many college basketball teams, but not all. Of course, there are many other programs on campus which need a slice of both pies.
Gonzaga
No program in the country positioned themselves better to benefit from the House settlement decision than Gonzaga. The long-time WCC powerhouse, which moved from mid-major darling to a blue-blood debate over the past 20-plus years, is set to join the new Pac-12.
In addition to added TV deal revenue and access to better competition, which would come with the conference move regardless of the changing landscape, there is a new leg up on the competition. Since the Bulldogs bring a basketball team and no football team to the conference, the ratio of revenue they are allowed to allocate under the salary cap will seem outsized.
Where many WCC teams will be on an even playing field under these rules, they hold an advantage over the existing Pac-12 teams and incoming Mountain West programs. Even when the revenue allocated is cut down based on the lack of football, the salary cap limits the opportunity of their rivals to keep up.
Lawyers
The House settlement was a large step forward for college athletics, finally hitting reset on a set of enforceable rules. However, from the clearing house designed to accept or reject NIL deals outside the $20.5 million paid by schools to the ongoing NCAA eligibility questions, there is plenty left to challenge.
Ultimately, without a collectively bargained agreement or congressional intervention, there are plenty lawsuits left to try. Even the future interaction between the NCAA and the new governing body remains a question which could require additional legal input to unpack.
Losers

Football powerhouses
No matter how much revenue a school makes, the cap is currently set at $20.5 million, with ambiguity on the ability to sign traditional NIL deals outside that. Given some projections that it will take close to $15 million to compete at the highest level in football, there is only a small slice left for men’s basketball, women’s basketball, baseball, softball and Olympic sports to share.
For those teams expected to compete in the College Football Playoff every season, the basketball staff will have to accept less money than their competition in the NCAA Tournament. It is a give-and-take which has existed on a different scale for years, with facility upgrades and staffing decisions being prioritized for one program over the others but takes on a new life here.
These schools still have plenty to offer, with new Texas basketball coach Sean Miller addressing the pros and cons of his move this offseason. Based on their commitment to making it happen, and standing in the sport, many of these teams will kind a way to maximize their opportunity and invest in success.
Traditional mid-major
Perhaps the biggest loser in the House settlement decision is the traditional mid-major program, which continues to move further away from relevance as the power conferences leave them behind financially.
The AAC, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt were all viewed as challengers who challengers who could at least provide a fun storyline at one time. They are now further reduced to feeder schools in this model, given the lack of TV deal money and revenue share to spend.
Where the Big East can counter the money gap with a commitment to one sport, these conferences compete across all sports. That leaves them with less money than the competition across the board, allowing specialized schools to pass them with no recourse outside of program-slashing decisions.
Rule-following
Unfortunately, one of the consequences of a return to concrete rules is the inevitable desire to bend them. With the gray area of outside NIL deals already a potential sticking point, there is no question that the governing bodies of college sports will ramp up the number of investigations once again.
While no one particularly likes living in the “Wild West” era of college sports, a return to rules will not reduce the number of outlaws – especially when they are all publicly aware of the treasure chest the current model allowed them to access.
NIL
Dante Moore doesn’t lose ground in latest College Football HQ Mock Draft
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza – QB, Indiana

It’s hard to rethink this after a brilliant Peach Bowl performance from Mendoza. Raiders fans should be excited for the opportunity to select this talent at the quarterback position.
2. New York Jets: Dante Moore – QB, Oregon
The big question over the next week or two is whether or not Moore will return to school. His struggles against pressure in the Peach Bowl may warrant more development. If Moore declares it would be hard for New York to pass on him.
3. Arizona Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa – OT, Miami

Mauigoa’s impressively clean year of pass protection has mattered greatly on Miami’s national championship run. The Cardinals with this selection have locked down both tackle positions for the future.
4. Tennessee Titans: Arvell Reese – EDGE, Ohio State
It’s a shame we didn’t get to see more of Arvell Reese, but he put enough on tape to be a top five selection. Tennessee lacks an identity on defense and this pick might create an energetic pass rush.
5. New York Giants: Carnell Tate – WR, Ohio State
Tate opposite Nabers creates headaches for any defense looking to play man coverage. This gives Jaxson Dart multiple targets who can win downfield and above the rim.
6. Cleveland Browns: Jordyn Tyson – WR, Arizona State

The quarterback position will be a question mark in Cleveland, but at least they can improve the situation. Tyson has the route running ability and body type of a true number one receiver.
7. Washington Commanders: Caleb Downs – S, Ohio State
The Commanders need impact players of any kind on defense. Caleb Downs is the closest thing to this definition in the draft. It’s a slam dunk if he’s available here.
8. New Orleans Saints: Rueben Bain – EDGE, Miami
With Chase Young’s late season emergence and Cam Jordan’s age, the Saints look to build out a reliable edge duo with Bain. Led by Bain’s efforts, Miami’s pass rush has dominated in 2025.
9. Kansas City Chiefs: Jeremiyah Love – RB, Notre Dame
The Chiefs need another mismatch weapon on offense as Travis Kelce ages. Jeremiyah Love adds formational versatility and an explosive element in the run game.
10. Cincinnati Bengals: David Bailey – EDGE, Texas Tech

Cincinnati has a bunch of bigger bodies at edge and need to add a pure pass rusher. Bailey’s relentless use of hands and pursuit to the quarterback charges up this defense.
11. Miami Dolphins: Spencer Fano – OT, Utah
Austin Jackson is under contract for another year in Miami, but Fano could be an immediate upgrade. Regardless, Miami can invest in the position long term and give Fano a chance to bulk up in the meantime.
12. Dallas Cowboys: Sonny Styles – LB, Ohio State
Dallas needs a communicator in the middle of their defense to tie both ends together. Sonny Styles supplies a floor against the run game while improving their ability to cover tight ends.
13. Los Angeles Rams: Jermod McCoy – CB, Tennessee

The Rams could use more physicality at the cornerback position. McCoy is rehabbing a torn ACL from late last season and would benefit from slotting in on an already talented roster.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Makai Lemon – WR, USC
If Isaiah Likely walks in free agency, the Ravens need another reliable weapon for Lamar Jackson. Makai Lemon was a consistent chain mover this season at USC and brings some toughness to the middle of the field.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Olaivavega Ioane – OG, Penn State
When the Buccaneers’ offense was at its best in 2024, they were consistently able to run the football. Depth issues and injuries killed this offensive line in 2025, and it can’t happen again.
16. New York Jets: Peter Woods – DT, Clemson

After trading Quinnen Williams the Jets have a massive hole at defensive tackle. Woods immediately slots in on early downs to provide some stoutness up front while he develops as a pass rusher.
17. Detroit Lions: Mansoor Delane – CB, LSU

There’s not much Detroit can do about their defensive depth issues other than continue to throw darts at key positions. Delane could end up getting selected much higher than this after an excellent season in the SEC.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Kenyon Sadiq – TE, Oregon
There’s a chance the Vikings release TJ Hockenson and they’d need a pass catching tight end to replace him. JJ McCarthy gets a physical target over the middle of the field to develop with.
19. Carolina Panthers: Cashius Howell – EDGE, Texas A&M
This Panthers’ defense finished the season flying around on their way to a near playoff upset of the Rams. Howell brings similar energy with his “see ball carrier, get ball carrier” attitude from the edge position.
20. Dallas Cowboys: Avieon Terrell – CB, Clemson
The Cowboys like cornerbacks who can move in and out of the slot when formations shift. Terrell has that ability, and adds more versatility to a secondary that already has Da’Ron Bland.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Denzel Boston – WR, Washington
If there’s a chance Aaron Rodgers is back in Pittsburgh in 2026, they need to add more size at pass catcher. Right now, Rodgers favorite weapons are all big bodied targets.

22. Los Angeles Chargers: Emmanuel Pregnon – OG, Oregon
Pregnon is a late riser in this draft process as a mauling run blocker. The Chargers invested in Omarion Hampton last season and can’t seem to keep Justin Herbert upright. They need more security along the offensive line.
23. Philadelphia Eagles: Kadyn Proctor – OT, Alabama
Jordan Mailata entered the league as a hulking offensive tackle before rounding into one of the league’s best. The Eagles take pride in their size up front, and Lane Johnson’s inconsistent health warrants foresight.
24. Cleveland Browns: Kayden McDonald – DT, Ohio State
McDonald would be the final piece of a truly dominant Cleveland defensive line. Right now, Myles Garrett is the best defensive player in football. It never hurts to make his job easier.
25. Chicago Bears: Colton Hood – CB, Tennessee

The cornerback room in Chicago operates solidly when fully healthy, but there’s a massive dropoff to their first backup. Hood gets to step in as an elite athletic talent with the opportunity to learn and develop.
26. Buffalo Bills: Keldric Faulk – EDGE, Auburn
The Bills like big bodies like Faulk who can rotate to 3-technique on passing downs. Faulk has the ability to add weight and fit in wherever the Bills need a boost of talent along the defensive line.
27. San Francisco 49ers: CJ Allen – LB, Georgia
The 49ers need a player who can freelance in the box against the run. CJ Allen has the necessary range and blockshed ability to apply support behind this pass rush against the league’s best offensive lines.
28. Houston Texans: Caleb Lomu – OT, Utah
Houston’s run game is showing signs of growth in 2025 but still needs more talent. Caleb Lomu comes from a Utah offense predicated on outside zone and immediately adds athleticism to the Texans’ run blocking unit.
29. Los Angeles Rams: Trevor Goosby – OT, Texas
The Rams offensive line is essential to keeping an older Matthew Stafford and an eventual young replacement upright. They need more depth at tackle and have the time and resources to invest in developing a young toolsy player.
30. New England Patriots: Caleb Banks – DT, Florida
The Patriots found consistent pass rush from their interior in 2025 but could use more size on early downs. If Banks hits his ceiling as a disruptive mismatch nose tackle, the defense would have extra versatility to disguise pressures with three massive defensive linemen on the field.
31. Denver Broncos: Romello Height – EDGE, Texas Tech

Nik Bonitto’s ability to get after the quarterback is an incredibly important part of the Broncos defense. Height has the ability to step in and become Bonitto’s understudy while providing personnel depth for one of the league’s best units.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Brandon Cisse – CB, South Carolina
Mike Macdonald’s time in Baltimore shows the importance of constant investment at the cornerback position with this defensive scheme. Cisse has the versatility to play in the slot and adds more physicality to this already ferocious secondary.
NIL
Nick Saban claims major college football program is ‘back’ to national relevance
The stage is set for the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship. No. 1 Indiana (15-0, 9-0) will face No. 10 Miami (13-2, 6-2) in Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida, on Jan. 19 (7:30 p.m. EST, ESPN).
The national championship matchup will feature a pair of programs that have not reached this level of success in quite some time. Indiana has never seen this amount of success, as it did not win more than 10 games in a regular season until Curt Cignetti’s arrival. As for Miami, 2025 has been about a return to national relevance that has been missing for nearly two decades.
Retired seven-time national champion head coach Nick Saban is buying into Miami’s return to national relevance. He discussed the importance Hurricanes’ run in the 2025 College Football Playoff at halftime of the Peach Bowl on the ESPN set Friday.

“I’m happy for them too. I think this is great for the city of Miami. The U is back, and that’s really, really good. Glad they’re going to be playing in Hard Rock (Stadium), that’s all great,” Saban said. “But, I tell you what, they helped Ole Miss a lot in the game last night. But what impressed me the most was the resiliency they showed to keep playing the next play and overcome the adversity that they created themselves.”
Saban has a professional connection with Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal. After Florida International fired Cristobal in the 2013 offseason, Saban hired him to his Alabama staff. Cristobal served as an associate head coach, recruiting coordinator and offensive line coach for four seasons before departing for Oregon in 2017.
Cristobal spent a season as the Ducks’ co-offensive coordinator and offensive line coach before taking over for the outgoing Willie Taggart as head coach. He was in the role for four seasons before accepting the head coaching job at Miami.
Under Cristobal’s leadership, the Hurricanes are playing in their first national championship since 2002. Following the national championship loss to Ohio State and their eventual movement to the ACC, the Hurricanes gradually regressed to the point where they fired Larry Coker in the 2007 offseason.
Between Coker and Cristobal, the Hurricanes employed Randy Shannon, Al Golden, Mark Richt and Manny Diaz as head coaches. All four finished with winning records as head coaches, but only Richt won 10 games in a season (2017). Richt retired from the post after three seasons, while the other three were relieved of their duties by the university.

NIL
$2.6 million QB ranked No. 1 NFL Draft prospect amid College Football Playoff
Indiana enters the College Football Playoff national championship game on January 19, riding one of the most improbable runs in modern college football.
The Hoosiers finished the regular season unbeaten, captured the Big Ten title, and earned the No. 1 seed in the expanded playoff before dismantling No. 9 Alabama (38–3) and No. 5 Oregon (56–22) in the first two rounds of the postseason.
Indiana’s dominant Peach Bowl victory over the Ducks cemented the Hoosiers’ place in the national title game, marking the program’s first appearance in a national championship and representing the pinnacle of head coach Curt Cignetti’s rapid rebuild.
At the center of Indiana’s historic 2025 campaign is quarterback Fernando Mendoza, the Cal transfer who arrived in Bloomington after spending his first two seasons with the Golden Bears.
In his lone season at Indiana, Mendoza has delivered elite efficiency and command of the offense, throwing for 3,349 yards with a nation-best 41 touchdowns against just six interceptions, while completing 73% of his passes across 15 games.
That breakout campaign helped guide Indiana to a 15–0 record, earning Mendoza widespread national recognition, becoming Indiana’s first Heisman Trophy winner, adding AP Player of the Year honors, and sweeping the major national quarterback awards.
With Mendoza widely expected to declare for the NFL Draft following the season, speculation has intensified regarding his draft position and potential landing spot.
ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. added fuel to that conversation on Monday by placing Mendoza No. 1 overall on his latest 2026 NFL Draft Big Board following the CFP semifinals.
“Mendoza transferred to Indiana after playing two seasons at Cal, and his game has taken off,” Kiper wrote. “The key? He has cut down on sacks, with 22 so far this season after taking 41 in 2024.”
“Mendoza is getting the ball out quicker. And while he doesn’t have a huge arm, he can make all the necessary NFL-level throws. His ball placement is fantastic. I wouldn’t consider him a dual threat, but Mendoza also has enough mobility to pick up first downs as a scrambler.”

Kiper’s Big Board places Mendoza ahead of other highly regarded quarterbacks expected to headline the 2026 NFL Draft class, including Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson.
While those passers bring different physical profiles, Mendoza’s combination of efficiency, decision-making, and a proven winning resume has increasingly separated him from the pack in early evaluations.
He has also emerged as one of the sport’s most marketable stars, ranking eighth nationally in NIL valuation at an estimated $2.6 million, a figure that reflects both his on-field success and national profile.
Indiana’s season is not yet complete, as a national title win over Miami would cement the Hoosiers’ campaign as one of the most memorable in college football history and further strengthen Mendoza’s case as the top overall prospect.
Regardless of the outcome, his ascent from transfer addition to Heisman Trophy winner and projected No. 1 pick stands as one of the most notable quarterback rises in recent college football history.
The 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 23–25 in Pittsburgh, but Mendoza’s trajectory suggests the conversation surrounding the first overall selection may already be taking shape.
Read More at College Football HQ
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- College football team loses 29 players to transfer portal
NIL
Joel Klatt declares there’s a new top head coach in college football
A college football champion will be crowned on Jan. 19 after the No. 10-seed Miami Hurricanes and No. 1-seed Indiana Hoosiers face off at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
As many fans have noticed and have thoroughly enjoyed pointing out online, the SEC does not have a representative in the title game for the third consecutive year. Many in the sport have attributed this to NIL and the transfer portal, which allow non-traditional programs like Texas Tech or Indiana to contend, while programs like Georgia or Alabama no longer have significant talent advantages.
When it comes to the Bulldogs, Fox’s Joel Klatt revealed on a recent episode of “The Next Round” that Georgia can’t even say they have the best coach in college football anymore, going as far as to say that Indiana’s Curt Cignetti has surpassed him.
“It leads into this idea of Kirby (Smart) is the best coach in college football,” Klatt said in reference to the SEC being the best conference narrative. “Well no he’s not. He hasn’t even played in the final four in the last three years with good teams by the way. And in some cases based on the composite, the most talented team.

“So Curt Cignetti is doing more with less than anybody,” Klatt said. “And he’s doing it on a stage and at a pace right now that is fairly unprecedented. He did it at Indiana. Guys Indiana is likely to win the national championship. That blows my mind. It just does.”
While it seemed extremely brash or arrogant at the time when Cignetti told college football fans to Google him at his introductory press conference, that appears to have been a legitimate warning that no one was really ready for.
In his four years as an FBS head coach, which include his final two seasons at James Madison, Cignetti has compiled a 45-6 record. At Indiana alone, he has put together a record of 26-2, leading the Hoosiers to the program’s first outright Big Ten title since 1945, the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and also helped Fernando Mendoza have a breakout year that saw him win the Heisman trophy.
Arguably the most interesting part about Cignetti’s success outside of his one-liners and otherworldly confidence is the fact that he isn’t chasing someone else’s legacy at another program, he is working to build his own.
Despite being the hottest coach on the market this coaching cycle, Cignetti inked an 8-year extension worth around $93 million that will keep him in Bloomington.
So, for those college football traditionalists who are struggling to accept the new reality of what this sport has become, it appears that accepting Indiana as a powerhouse is another thing they’ll have to add to the list.
NIL
Pat McAfee dealt blunt reality check from college football fans
Pat McAfee remains one of the more polarizing voices in the college football media landscape, and it appears the College GameDay personality is losing some of his base of support among fans, according to a new survey.
McAfee’s approval ratings among college football fans have fallen to an all-time low coming out of the 2025 season, according to a poll taken by The Athletic this week.
How do you feel about Pat McAfee?
Fans were asked a simple question: “How do you feel about Pat McAfee on College GameDay?” And the answers definitely tilted one way.
Nearly half of those who answered the question said they “Don’t like it,” with 49.5 percent of fans who took part saying they didn’t approve of McAfee’s contribution to the weekly College GameDay program.
That contribution has been noteworthy from the beginning, capped off by his bombastic (and often shirtless) game predictions that helped give the program a transition from Lee Corso’s famous headgear picks as a method of closing out each show on Saturday.
The field-goal kicking contest that McAfee hosts on GameDay, which includes him paying out serious money to the winners, is also highly-regarded among fans who watch.
Those who do like what McAfee brings to the table? That number is down to 31.6 percent of those who were surveyed by The Athletic.
Just under 20 percent of those asked, 18.9 percent, said they had no opinion of him.
Previous polls agree on McAfee
This marked the third year that The Athletic polled fans on McAfee, but this edition of the vote saw the highest mark among those who answered negatively about him.
Last year, 42.5 percent of respondents said they didn’t like McAfee, and in 2023, that number swelled to 48.9 percent.
Two seasons ago, the negative conversation around McAfee’s performance on College GameDay even resulted in viral speculation that he considered leaving the program.
Last offseason, it was revealed that McAfee did not have a contract to appear on College GameDay that fall and it was an open question for a time whether or not he would return.
Those rumors were put to bed about a month later, when McAfee revealed that he signed a new deal with ESPN to appear on the show that season.
College GameDay is still very popular
Whatever fans may think of McAfee, they are very clear on the College GameDay program overall: they love it.
The overwhelming majority of those fans polled, 83.6 percent of them, said they prefer College GameDay to the Fox pre-game program Big Noon Kickoff.
That confidence was expressed in the TV ratings this season, as College GameDay established viewership records in the 2025 season averaging 2.7 million viewers per show, up 22 percent from last year.
(Athletic)
Read more from College Football HQ
NIL
Mailbag Call: So…Indiana? | Off Tackle Empire
Is this the new normal? The new Bloomington? The new Big Ten?
Good afternoon, and happy Monday. Three-quarters of the MNW household are struggling with some form or residuals of the flu, and the other one is me. That, of course, has led to no resentment of the fact that I am healthy other than a little cough, no sir.
Indiana feels inevitable at this point, do they not? The Hoosiers have, through Curt Cignetti’s shrewd use of the transfer portal and quality coaching, turned college football completely on its ear.
Well, a deep-pocketed donor by any other name is…a deep-pocketed donor, still. Add to that Mark Cuban’s money for 2026? We might be dealing with the Hoosiers until Curt Cignetti gets bored.
Of course, there have been flashes in the pan before: the wisconsin Rose Bowls, the Peak Weather Machine years of Michigan State, that one time Minnesota won ten games or whatever—but it’s undeniable that none of those programs ever made a national championship and that none of them did it in the style that Indiana is doing it right now.
Watching Indiana do it—or, indeed, the entire SEC going belly-up in the postseason—is certainly cathartic. It’s better than the usual suspects doing it over and over again, and it’s at least more above-board than the standard SEC model of used car dealers buying themselves a championship. I take little solace in knowing that there’s less program-building, less connection to a campus, less-anything that feels “authentically” college football, but it’s incredibly possible that my feelings of “authenticity” always relied on a lie—the lie that it was possible to square “belonging” or “identity” of a college campus with athletes being fairly treated.
Congratulations, of course, to Indiana on their seemingly inevitable championship. It is truly exciting for the Hoosiers and their fans, as well as those coming back to football to join the thousand or so of their long-suffering brethren. Glad you’ve finally left the tailgate lots and headed in. Enjoy Miami.
Of course, you might have questions or comments about completely different things—basketball, wrestling, the best episode of Magic School Bus, the worst way to cook cod. We in the OTE Hive were recently discussing our careers as Quiz Bowl contestants (MNW, AlmaOtter, LPW), speech wannabes (LPW, Kind of…, Dead Read), or speech titans (BRT, Jesse, et al). Ask us what you’d like, and we’ll answer how we’d like.
This is a Mailbag call, and I hope you’ll treat it as such.
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