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A college degree is no longer a risk-free investment

My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t. Look at any financial crisis or minor blowup, and that’s always where it starts. Lately I have been wondering if my hypothesis applies […]

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My unifying theory of finance is that everything goes seriously wrong when people start seeing something — a bond, a mortgage-backed security, a crypto exchange — as risk-free when it isn’t. Look at any financial crisis or minor blowup, and that’s always where it starts.

Lately I have been wondering if my hypothesis applies to areas outside of finance — specifically, to education. For years, a college degree was seen as a risk-free asset. It took money and time, but it was near certain it would pay off in the form of increased lifetime earnings.

No wonder that we are now in an education bubble: Lots of people went to college, studied things that aren’t useful, and found themselves overwhelmed with debt. Many more can pay their debt, but work in jobs that don’t require a degree anyhow.

In the postwar era, college was a bet that couldn’t fail. Not many people went to college in the first place, and those who did were rewarded with much higher earnings. And as technology evolved, it made college-educated workers even more productive.

This trend has started to turn. Not only does technological knowledge now command less of a premium, but many more Americans now have a degree, making it less valuable. There has also been a proliferation of for-profit schools that offer less great education, and more college dropouts.

Still, you might ask: Even if the returns to education have declined, at least getting a degree is less of a risk than not getting one, right? Maybe not. For decades, recent college graduates were less likely to be unemployed, and if they lost a job they tended to find another one more quickly. But in the years before the pandemic, a new trend emerged: Recent graduates (age 22 to 27) had higher rates of unemployment than the general population. (They still had lower rates of unemployment than people the same age with no degree, though that difference is narrowing.)

Some of this has to do with the state of the labor market; in the years after the Great Recession, for example, graduates had a harder time finding work, and this depressed their earnings for years. But the concern is that this is more structural than cyclical. Industries that were once stable and lucrative sources of employment, such as consulting and banking, can now use AI for many entry-level tasks. While they still hire young graduates, they need fewer of them.

It’s only a matter of time before AI reduces demand for all entry-level corporate jobs. AI is great at doing what new hires fresh out of college tend to do — writing emails, putting together PowerPoints, summarizing the highlights of last night’s game. So far there is not much evidence this is driving hiring decisions, but the trendlines are not good.

This is not to say that college is no longer worth it. But it’s no longer a sure thing, where you can go to pretty much any school, and study pretty much anything, and be confident that it will pay off.

College is still a good investment, if you study the right things and go to a reasonably good school. But more graduates will find it harder to find work, and when they do, they will discover that their degree wasn’t necessary. Eventually, because a college education will have a smaller payoff, fewer people will probably go to college.

I know it’s commencement season, and I don’t want to sound too apocalyptic, so: It is important to keep in mind that a college education is an investment in lifetime earnings, so the payoff relative to any current job may not pencil out. It’s also worth noting that careers will require more risk management. Historically, at least, income for college graduates has grown much faster than that for non-graduates. This will probably remain the case for graduates who can complement new technology, and those will tend to be the ones who have learned how to adapt and think critically.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently released a report on the labor market for recent college graduates, including data on unemployment and underemployment rates by major. On the one hand, it looks like ethnic studies is a sure bet compared to computer engineering. On the other, ethnic studies majors are more likely to be underemployed or have a job that does not use their degree — which risks slower wage growth. The lesson here is that it is critical to both choose a major that will be in demand, and to learn skills on the job — skills that will be valuable in a changing work force.

Another way to manage risk is to be more open about where you live after graduation. Moving to a big city used to increase your earning potential if you had a degree. But one study suggests that more job and wage growth may now occur in smaller cities.

It has always been hard to say exactly what the labor market holds for new graduates. True, current conditions do seem tougher than they have been, and it’s likely that the change will last. Gone are the days when a college degree automatically made you more likely to have higher earnings and better employment prospects. But that degree is still worth it, even if it’s not quite the risk-free investment it used to be.

Allison Schrager is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering economics. A senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, she is author of “An Economist Walks Into a Brothel: And Other Unexpected Places to Understand Risk.”



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Big 12 commissioner doubles down on preference for 5-11 playoff model if CFP expands

Associated Press FRISCO, Texas (AP) — Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark is doubling down on his preference to stay with only five automatic qualifiers if the College Football Playoff does expand from 12 to 16 teams as many expect after this season, instead of each of the four power conferences being guaranteed multiple bids. “We […]

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Associated Press

FRISCO, Texas (AP) — Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark is doubling down on his preference to stay with only five automatic qualifiers if the College Football Playoff does expand from 12 to 16 teams as many expect after this season, instead of each of the four power conferences being guaranteed multiple bids.

“We have the responsibility to do what’s right for college football … not what’s right for one or two or more conferences,” Yormark said Tuesday at Big 12 football media days. “I think 5-11 is fair. Earn it on the field, assuming we want to expand. I love the current format, but if we’re going to expand, let’s do it in a way that’s fair and equitable and gives everyone a chance.”

While the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten will have more of a say on the playoff format starting in 2026, when ESPN’s $7.8 billion contract kicks in, Yormark believes the 5-11 format would be good for now and in the future. He said ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips feels the same way, and is expected to express that during his league’s media days in two weeks.

“We do not need a professional model because we are not the NFL,” Yormark said. “We are college football and we must act like it.”

In the 12-team format still in place for this season, the five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed spots in the playoff. The difference this year is that the top four highest-ranked champions are no longer guaranteed the top four seeds that come with first-round byes.

Among potential 16-team formats would be four automatic qualifiers from both the SEC and Big Ten, and two each for the Big 12 and ACC. The Big 12 last season had only conference champion Arizona State make the playoff last season.

“We want to earn it on the field,” Yormark said. “It might not be the best solution today for the Big 12, given your comments about (automatic qualifiers), but long term, knowing the progress we’re making, the investments we’re making, it’s the right format for us.”

Yormark, who is going into his fourth year as Big 12 commissioner, believes that the landmark NCAA House settlement will have a positive impact for all conferences, especially if the College Sports Commission works the way it is intended in enforcing the rules in the remade system.

“It will. I have a lot of faith in Bryan Seely,” Yormark said of the former Major League Baseball executive named CEO of the new CSC. “It should create a level playing field, and I’m not giving that up.”

The Big 12 was already in transition and still at 10 teams when Yormark arrived in 2022. BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF joined the league the following year.

Texas and Oklahoma, who won football national championships while in the Big 12, completed their long-planned move to the SEC last year. That is when Pac-12 schools Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah came into what is now a 16-team Big 12.

“I think parity matters, and I think ultimately over time, and that’s hopefully sooner than later, there’ll be a couple of our schools that will emerge, you know, as elite schools that are always part of the conversations at the highest levels. And that’s what we’re working towards,” Yormark said. “But it starts with parity and being competitive top to bottom. And I think we’re there.”

___

AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football





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Olivia Dunne Rejected From Buying Babe Ruth’s $1.6M Apartment

iStockphoto / © Brad Penner-Imagn Images // © Brad Penner-Imagn Images Audio By Carbonatix Olivia Dunne is not allowed to purchase the former home of Babe Ruth in New York City. Her application was rejected. The co-op board ultimately decided that she was not the right fit. Dunne, who recently exhausted her college gymnastics eligibility […]

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Olivia Dunne Babe Ruth Apartment New York City
iStockphoto / © Brad Penner-Imagn Images // © Brad Penner-Imagn Images
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Olivia Dunne is not allowed to purchase the former home of Babe Ruth in New York City. Her application was rejected.

The co-op board ultimately decided that she was not the right fit.

Dunne, who recently exhausted her college gymnastics eligibility at LSU, decided to buy her first piece of real estate. The girlfriend of Paul Skenes is going to buy an apartment and/or condo in the city that never sleeps. Her eyes were set on one property in particular but she will have to go back to the drawing board.

According to Dunne, her plan was to purchase a historic co-op at 345 W 88th Street on the Upper West Side. In New York City, a co-op (short for cooperative) is a form of housing where the resident does not own the individual apartment outright. The owner instead purchases shares in a corporation that owns the entire building. It is not uncommon in the Big Apple.

Olivia Dunne was ready to move in!

This specific unit on W 88th is located just a few steps from the Hudson River, five blocks from Central Park. It features three bedrooms and two and a half bathrooms over approximately 1,500 square feet and comes with an incredible backstory.

Built in 1915, the prewar apartment was once the primary residence of Babe Ruth! The Sultan of Swat lived in this specific unit for the last decade of his legendary baseball career with the New York Yankees. You can get a peek at the property through its listing on Zillow. It is listed at a price of $1,595,000 with an HOA fee of $4,262 per month.

Olivia Dunne has money like that! She was going to pay cash.

However, the 22-year-old will not be allowed to buy the historic apartment despite her best attempt to do so. Finances were not the issue. Her background check cleared.

The co-op board voted against the purchase. It decided to reject Dunne’s application.

This is well within the rights of the board. It might’ve decided against the purchase for a variety of different reasons. I would guess the board didn’t want to deal with her status.

Whatever the reason, Olivia Dunne will not buy Babe Ruth’s apartment in New York City. Onto the next.





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Gavin McKenna, projected top pick for 2026 NHL Draft, expected to sign with Penn State for upcoming NCAA season

Gavin McKenna, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, is reportedly expected to sign with the Penn State Nittany Lions for the upcoming 2025-26 NCAA hockey season. Elite Prospects’ Cam Robinson dropped the news on Monday, adding that the 17-year-old forward chose State College over East Lansing, home of the Michigan […]

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Gavin McKenna, the projected No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, is reportedly expected to sign with the Penn State Nittany Lions for the upcoming 2025-26 NCAA hockey season.

Elite Prospects’ Cam Robinson dropped the news on Monday, adding that the 17-year-old forward chose State College over East Lansing, home of the Michigan State Spartans.

“Multiple sources indicate that Gavin McKenna will commit to Penn State University for 2025-26,” Robinson wrote on X. “One of the most electrifying prospects chooses the Nittany Lions. A game-changing get for PSU hockey.”

Independent hockey insider Jordan Schmaltz – a former member of the St. Louis Blues for parts of three seasons – indicated that McKenna could put pen to paper as soon as Monday.

“Sounds like Gavin McKenna will be signing with Penn State sometime this week. Maybe even as early as today,” Schmaltz posted on X. “He was added to the team group chat last night.”

Whispers of McKenna’s eventual decision began in early June when SportsNet’s Elliotte Friedman dropped hints on the 32 Thoughts Podcast.

“I was asking a few people around hockey what they thought, and informal straw poll, I would say Penn State. That’s who the favorite is,” Friedman said. “Nothing’s done until it’s done. I was told it would be premature to make any enormous proclamation. But I asked a bunch of people around and said if you had to pick where he’s going to play next year, most of them picked Penn State.”

McKenna has spent the past three seasons in the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers, recording 129 points (41g, 88a) in 56 games during the team’s championship campaign last year. The Whitehorse, Yukon native could’ve stayed for a fourth season but it seems he wants to help the Nittany Lion program take the next step.

Penn State is coming off their first-ever appearance in the Frozen Four this past April, ultimately falling to the Boston University Terriers 3-1 in the semifinal round. With a so-called generational talent like McKenna on the roster, a national championship pursuit could be even more attainable now.

McKenna is eligible to jump into the college ranks due to the NCAA’s vote last November to permit Canadian junior players to participate in Division I play beginning with the upcoming season. Previously, all players in the OHL, WHL, and QMJHL were deemed ineligible by the NCAA because some had already signed professional contracts with NHL teams.

Penn State has produced three NHL talents, including Brett Murray, Brandon Biro, and Casey Bailey. Other pro standouts from the school include AHLers Alex Limoges, Ryan Kirwan, Connor MacEachern, Simon Mack, Kris Myllari, Nikita Pavlychev, Nathan Sucese, and Kevin Wall.



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2025 SJC Field Hockey Schedule Preview

Story Links STANDISH, Maine – The 2025 Saint Joseph’s College field hockey regular season schedule has been announced. The Monks are slated to play 17 games this fall, beginning with a road contest at Thomas College on Wednesday, September 3rd (7:00 PM) and concluding the regular season with a non-conference tilt at […]

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STANDISH, Maine – The 2025 Saint Joseph’s College field hockey regular season schedule has been announced. The Monks are slated to play 17 games this fall, beginning with a road contest at Thomas College on Wednesday, September 3rd (7:00 PM) and concluding the regular season with a non-conference tilt at Wellesley College on October 28th.

Under the direction of second-year Head Coach Theresa Arsenault ’14, Saint Joseph’s will play 10 Great Northeast Athletic Conference (GNAC) contests and seven non-conference match-ups, including challenging regional games against Babson College (Sep. 10, home) and Endicott College (Oct. 8, away).

The Monks open GNAC play at home versus Lasell University on Saturday, September 6th at 11:00 AM.

The 2025 GNAC Tournament begins with quarterfinal action on November 1st and continues with the semifinal and championship rounds on November 5th and 8th, respectively. The tournament champion earns an automatic bid to the NCAA Division III Tournament, which begins on November 12th.

Saint Joseph’s looks to build on a solid 2024 campaign under Coach Arsenault, when the Monks finished 10-11 overall and 7-5 in GNAC play to earn the No. 5 seed in the conference tournament. SJC defeated fourth-seeded Colby-Sawyer in the quarterfinal round before falling to top-seeded Johnson & Wales, the eventual GNAC Champion, by a 2-1 score in the semifinal on November 6th.


Games to Watch

Sept. 20 vs. Simmons University – Simmons has had the upper hand in recent years, winning four straight against SJC, including a 3-0 decision last fall. The Sharks reached the 2024 GNAC Championship game, falling 4-2 to Johnson & Wales, and remain a key conference rival.

Sept. 29 at University of Southern Maine – Saint Joseph’s aims to avenge a 4-3 overtime loss suffered in Standish last season. A win in Gorham would be the Monks’ first road victory over USM since 2021.

Oct. 8 at Endicott College – This late-season match-up pits the Monks against one of the region’s perennial powers. The two programs last met in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament, where Endicott earned a 3-1 win. This contest will serve as a strong benchmark heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

2025 Field Hockey Schedule Synopsis

 















CLOSER LOOK AT THE 2025 SCHEDULE/OPPONENTS:
Total Games: 17
Home/Away/Neutral: 7 / 10 / 0
Opponents’ Overall Record in 2024: 159-163 (.494)
Monks’ All-Time Record vs. 2025 Foes: 175-131 (.572)
Longest Current Winning Streak vs. 2025 Opponent: 10 – Regis College
Longest Current Losing Streak vs. 2025 Opponent: 6 – Babson College
2024 NCAA Tournament Teams on 2025 Schedule: Babson College
First Time Opponent(s) on 2025 Schedule: None
2025 GNAC Tournament Dates: Nov 1 (Quarterfinal), Nov 5 (Semifinal), Nov 8 (Championship)
2025 NCAA Tournament Dates: Nov 12 – Nov 23

 



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Samoskevich’s coaching journey added a new stop in Columbus

But the conclusion of her collegiate hockey career left her at a crossroads. When Samoskevich finished at Quinnipiac in 2019, there was no stable league for professional women’s hockey. Samoskevich continued with the national team, winning gold at the 2019 Women’s World Championship, before stints in the Swedish Women’s Hockey League and with the Connecticut […]

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But the conclusion of her collegiate hockey career left her at a crossroads.

When Samoskevich finished at Quinnipiac in 2019, there was no stable league for professional women’s hockey. Samoskevich continued with the national team, winning gold at the 2019 Women’s World Championship, before stints in the Swedish Women’s Hockey League and with the Connecticut Whale in the now defunct National Women’s Hockey League.

“I graduated at a tough time,” Samoskevich said. “We just didn’t have a steady league yet. “There were two pathways for girls coming out of college – I actually chose coaching right away, and then playing was kind of like another thing I did. But my income was (from) coaching.”

While playing with the Whale, Samoskevich served as an assistant coach for the Penn State women’s hockey team – not before turning down a coaching position with her alma mater.

“My coach asked me if I want to coach. I told her no, because I saw how much work she did and how much noise she dealt with,” Samoskevich said with a laugh. “And I was just like, ‘No, I don’t want to do that.’”

But there was one small issue with that, one of the unfortunate realities of the professional women’s hockey landscape at the time.

“I needed a job,” Samoskevich said. “Jeff Kampersal at Penn State called me. He coached me at the U-18 national team. He’s like, ‘Would you be interested in this?’ And I was like, ‘Maybe I am. Let me give it a go.’”

After studying to become a teacher at Quinnipiac, coaching was a natural fit. And despite Samoskevich’s intrigue with figure skating as a child and her skepticisms about coaching as a young adult, there’s no other path she could envision herself on at this point.

“I really don’t know what else I would do,” Samoskevich said. “Like, there are some days where the job is hard. There’s perks to a 9-to-5 job, but there’s perks to this job. … I don’t know what else I would do.”

Samoskevich eventually rejoined Quinnipiac as a director of hockey operations in 2022-23 and was an assistant coach for two years with Princeton. She’s coached her fair share of all-stars – including the first overall pick in the 2024 PWHL Draft, Sarah Fillier – but her favorite student is her little sister. After following in her older sister’s footsteps through high school and college, Maddy will get an opportunity that Melissa never got – the opportunity to play professional hockey.

In addition, Samoskevich will still shoot Mackie a text here and there with little things she notices about his game. But what Samoskevich learned on the ice last week at CBJ development camp will undoubtedly be shared with Maddy, who will take her talents to Vancouver to continue her playing career.

“Maddy, she’s just a girl,” Samoskevich said. “We had almost an identical path from Shattuck to Quinnipiac. I’ve been in her shoes, so it’s easier to kind of give her advice and just talk her through things.”

Samoskevich was one of a handful of female coaches that assisted at development camps around the NHL this summer. Though she never got the opportunity to play professional hockey long-term, she finds these camps to be a pretty solid substitute.

“I feel so lucky that I got this week under my belt,” Samoskevich said. “Seeing how an NHL club runs – it’s different than women’s collegiate hockey, but we’re all talking the same language.”

Though the NHL Coaches Association allows her an opportunity to make the jump into the men’s hockey stratosphere, Samoskevich is excited to join the Delaware program as an assistant coach. The team’s inaugural Division I season is set to begin this fall.

“We’re starting a brand-new program at Delaware, and I plan to be there for a while,” Samoskevich said. “We just want to grow an amazing program and an amazing culture … just something special.”



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Florida Gymnast Riley McCusker Announces Fifth Year

Florida Gymnastics senior Riley McCusker announced her return for a fifth year on Instagram Monday afternoon. After spending her junior year sidelined due to an ankle injury, the 2025 SEC Uneven Bar Champion will use her final year of eligibility in the 2026 season. Riley McCusker announced today that she is officially coming back for […]

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Florida Gymnastics senior Riley McCusker announced her return for a fifth year on Instagram Monday afternoon. After spending her junior year sidelined due to an ankle injury, the 2025 SEC Uneven Bar Champion will use her final year of eligibility in the 2026 season.

Before Florida

This Gator was a six-time U.S. National Team Member in her elite gymnastics career. McCusker also won the team gold at the 2018 World Championship and won four medals at the 2019 Pan American Games, including a gold on uneven bars and in the team competition.

She committed to compete for Florida in 2016 and was set to enroll in the fall of 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic pushing back the Tokyo Games, McCusker deferred for another year to pursue her Olympic dreams. However, because of an injury she sustained at the 2021 U.S. Classic a month before the team selection, she was only able to compete bars at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Team Trials, limiting her chances.

A fourth place finish in the bar competition prevented her from making the team, and McCusker shifted her focus toward being a Gator.

Gator Career

In her time at Florida, McCusker has specialized in the uneven bars, but has also appeared on beam. She has a career high of 9.95 on the beam, and her most recent performance came when she filled in for fellow senior Sloane Blakely just after her injury at Oklahoma on Feb. 21.

McCusker achieved her one career perfect 10.0 when she anchored bars for the Gators at the 2025 SEC Championship. She contributed to the record-breaking lineup, as Florida achieved the highest team bar score in NCAA history (49.85).

“I honestly couldn’t believe it,” McCusker said on March 22 following the Gators’ third place finish at SECs. “It’s been a lifelong dream of mine to get a 10 in NCAA, so I’m just so excited.”





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