BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The weekend for conference championship games in college football has arrived. Starting Friday, there will be nine FBS conference championship matchups. From the perspective of Indiana, the Hoosiers are ranked No. 9, and just three championship games matter for their potential outcomes: the Big Ten (Penn State-Oregon, 8 p.m. ET Saturday), SEC […]
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The weekend for conference championship games in college football has arrived. Starting Friday, there will be nine FBS conference championship matchups.
From the perspective of Indiana, the Hoosiers are ranked No. 9, and just three championship games matter for their potential outcomes: the Big Ten (Penn State-Oregon, 8 p.m. ET Saturday), SEC (Georgia-Texas, 4 p.m. ET Saturday), and ACC (Clemson-SMU, 8 p.m. ET Saturday) championships – with the ACC game being significant due to its complicated impact on the rankings.
The Mountain West (UNLV-Boise State, 8 p.m. ET Friday) and Big 12 (Iowa State-Arizona State, Noon ET Saturday) championship contests will influence the playoff landscape, but they will only affect which team secures either the final or second-to-last spot in the top four seeds, acting as the third or fourth-best conference champion or the No. 12 seed as the fifth-best.
Neither of those leagues will place more than one team in the playoffs, and neither will have any effect on Indiana’s seeding in the bracket.
Given that there are three conference championship games to evaluate, there are eight potential outcomes that will shape the Hoosiers’ path following the conclusion of Saturday’s games. This is the straightforward aspect.
The challenging part lies in deciphering the actions of the College Football Playoff committee after these championship games conclude.
How significantly will teams losing in their conference championships drop in the rankings? How much could a lower-ranked team ascend if they win their championship game? To what extent will victory margins sway the rankings?
The answers to these questions remain uncertain, but informed predictions can still be made regarding potential outcomes. Here’s our take on the eight possible scenarios stemming from the games crucial to Indiana’s fate and their implications for the Hoosiers’ trajectory.
That said, this is merely an educated speculation. The CFP committee’s decisions will ultimately determine the final field when it is revealed at noon ET on Sunday.
A vital reminder: rankings do not directly equate to seeds within the bracket. The top four seeds are assigned to the top four conference champions, irrespective of ranking, resulting in discrepancies between the rankings of at-large teams and their seeds. This clarification explains the difference between Indiana’s ranking and seed in these scenarios.
Scenario 1
Winners: Oregon, Texas, SMU
Summary: For any Oregon victory scenario, the margin by which the Ducks win could impact the Hoosiers because it has the potential to dictate how much Penn State’s ranking is affected by their loss. Thus, we provide three sub-scenarios.
If Penn State plays Oregon closely, they likely won’t drop significantly. A narrow loss to a top-ranked team might not even see them drop at all. This could lead to a scenario where Indiana finds themselves facing Ohio State again.
A typical win for Oregon, defined by a margin of 7 to 17 points, alongside other outcomes, would push Penn State below Ohio State, a team they have previously lost to, though probably not by much. This would then mean a matchup for Indiana against Penn State.
If Oregon wins decisively? It’s difficult to predict how far the committee might drop the Nittany Lions. We’ll consider sub-scenarios regarding whether Penn State remains above or falls below Indiana in the rankings, as this will affect Indiana’s potential opponents.
Just a quick note: All eight scenarios assume Boise State wins the Mountain West championship game. Regardless of the outcome, Boise State’s ranking does not alter the first-round pairings as they would secure a bye. Should they lose, UNLV would take the No. 12 seed and the Big 12 champion would be seeded No. 4.
Narrow Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first-round playoff matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner advances to face Texas.
Standard Oregon win
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Georgia 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first-round playoff matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner advances to face Texas.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked below Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Penn State 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner moves on to play Oregon.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked above Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Penn State 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Georgia. Winner faces Texas.
Scenario 2
Winners: Oregon, Texas, Clemson
Summary: All of the outcomes from Scenario 1 apply in this context as well. While a Clemson win influences seeding, it does not alter potential opponents for Indiana.
In each Clemson win scenario, it is assumed that Alabama and SMU are effectively interchangeable based on how the committee may handle a loss from SMU.
Narrow Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner faces Texas.
Standard Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner plays Texas.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked below Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. Tennessee 7. Indiana 8. Penn State 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner moves on to face Oregon.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked above Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Texas 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Georgia 6. Tennessee 7. Penn State 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Georgia. Winner faces Texas.
Scenario 3
Winners: Oregon, Georgia, Clemson
Summary: A Georgia victory merely adjusts who Indiana faces in the significant Oregon win sub-scenario outlined below. Additionally, it could modify Indiana’s potential second-round opponent in several sub-scenarios.
Narrow Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner moves on to face Georgia.
Standard Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Penn State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion 12. Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Penn State. Winner faces Georgia.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked below Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Tennessee 7. Indiana 8. Penn State 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner faces Oregon.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked above Indiana
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Tennessee 7. Penn State 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner faces Georgia.
Scenario 4
Winners: Oregon, Georgia, SMU
Summary: This scenario mirrors Scenario 3 but removes the Alabama or SMU aspect from the rankings.
Narrow Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Penn State 4. Notre Dame 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner advances to face Georgia.
Standard Oregon victory
Rankings: 1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. Penn State 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion.
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner moves on to face Georgia.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked below Indiana
1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Penn State 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 9 Indiana at 8 Tennessee. Winner faces Oregon.
Significant Oregon victory, Penn State ranked above Indiana
1. Oregon 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Ohio State 5. Texas 6. SMU 7. Tennessee 8. Penn State 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 champion
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner faces Oregon.
Scenario 5
Winners: Penn State, Georgia, Clemson
Summary: If Penn State emerges victorious in any of these scenarios, it would obviously exclude them as a first-round opponent for the Hoosiers. A substantial win from Penn State will likely push them to the top ranking and seed.
Should Oregon lose, barring an overwhelming defeat, they are unlikely to fall significantly in the rankings. It is improbable that a one-loss Oregon would rank below Ohio State, whom they defeated in the regular season.
We have positioned Notre Dame ahead of Oregon in this scenario, but that order can easily be reversed, and flipping them wouldn’t alter Indiana’s first-round opponent.
Rankings: 1. Penn State 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Texas 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 or Clemson 12. Big 12 or Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner faces Georgia.
Scenario 6
Winners: Penn State, Texas, Clemson
Summary: This scenario remains consistent with Scenario 5, differing primarily in who Indiana would encounter in the second round, as Texas would be anticipated to be seeded higher than Penn State.
Rankings: 1. Texas 2. Penn State 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. Indiana 9. Boise State 10. Alabama or SMU 11. Big 12 or Clemson 12. Big 12 or Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner moves on to face Texas.
Scenario 7
Winners: Penn State, Texas, SMU
Summary: A victory for Penn State doesn’t create quite as many sub-scenarios for Indiana as an Oregon win would. Similar to Scenarios 5-6, regardless of rankings shuffle, the opponent for Indiana remains unchanged. However, the second-round opponent would vary for the Hoosiers.
Rankings: 1. Texas 2. Penn State 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Ohio State 6. Georgia 7. Tennessee 8. SMU 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 or Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Ohio State. Winner faces Texas.
Scenario 8
Winners: Penn State, Georgia, SMU
Summary: This scenario introduces a twist, placing Texas ahead of Ohio State in the seeding. As a result, Indiana’s first-round opponent shifts from Ohio State to Texas. The same concept can be applied conversely in Scenario 5.
Rankings: 1. Penn State 2. Georgia 3. Notre Dame 4. Oregon 5. Texas 6. Ohio State 7. SMU 8. Tennessee 9. Indiana 10. Boise State 11. Alabama 12. Big 12 or Clemson
Indiana’s potential first round matchup: 10 Indiana at 7 Texas. Winner plays Georgia.
