As the 2024-25 college basketball season reaches its first quarter, we’ve gleaned enough insights from Michigan basketball to confirm two key observations. First, this team is really impressive on the court. This has been evident over the last month as U-M has stringed together a remarkable seven-game win streak. The trend continued on Saturday, with […]
As the 2024-25 college basketball season reaches its first quarter, we’ve gleaned enough insights from Michigan basketball to confirm two key observations.
First, this team is really impressive on the court.
This has been evident over the last month as U-M has stringed together a remarkable seven-game win streak. The trend continued on Saturday, with U-M narrowly defeating Iowa 85-83 at Crisler Center — even after a late surge by the Hawkeyes which saw them score 10-2 in the final two minutes — aided by a game-tying 3-pointer from Payton Sandfort with 20 seconds remaining.
In the face of pressure, coach Dusty May opted for a timeout to strategize. U-M executed precisely as intended. The Wolverines utilized Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin as distractions, setting up a handoff from Tre Donaldson to Roddy Gayle.
From that moment, Gayle − one of five Michigan players hitting double digits − penetrated the lane and was awarded the game-winning layup after a goal-tending call with just 4.3 seconds on the clock. This decisive moment marked Michigan’s (8-1) successful start to Big Ten action at 2-0, a feat not achieved in four years. An undeniably strong team.
The second insight gained is that this team has a limit. The core issue? Turnovers. As per KenPom, Michigan ranks No. 336 (out of 355 NCAA Division I teams) in turnovers, tallying 21.4% of its possessions, and is notably poor at No. 350 in non-steal turnovers.
This has consistently granted opponents more opportunities than the Wolverines.
That was evident again on Saturday, as Michigan lost the turnover differential 17-4, which translated into a staggering 19-2 advantage in points off turnovers for Iowa. Essentially, Michigan dominated the half-court scoring with an 83-62 edge, yet still had to endure a tense game-winning shot attempt from Iowa at the buzzer.“If we can find a way to address this turnover problem — and this requires full commitment from the coaches, players, managers, and everyone involved — and if we can rectify this, our ceiling, our team will evolve into a much more formidable basketball unit almost instantly,” May expressed. “There’s a fine line between discussing it excessively and not addressing it enough, but we have enough evidence now to strategize effective solutions to this issue.” ‘Doing very well, very quickly’ To clarify, identifying the primary concern at this stage of the season is advantageous. At this point, no team nationally is free from some form of weakness or concern they’re actively seeking to improve. However, articulating that is one thing, whereas executing is entirely different.“I’ve been reiterating this after every game; it’s a focal point for us,” said senior Will Tschetter, who tallied a season-best 13 points. “You can observe what occurs when we minimize turnovers − in the Xavier match − everything moves very very efficiently when we maintain possession and protect the ball.” For Michigan, despite executing numerous aspects of the game successfully, addressing the turnover issue seems pivotal in distinguishing between narrow victories and substantial wins. Michigan ranks No. 7 nationally in two-point shooting (60.7%), No. 23 in offensive rebound rate (37.2%), effective FG shooting (57.3%) and checks in at No. 44 in adjusted offensive efficiency (114.4). Yet, surrendering a significant number of possessions occasionally undermines what is a highly skilled offense. U-M posted a shooting percentage of 55% (32 of 58) from the field compared to Iowa’s 42% (32 of 77). The additional 19 shot attempts completely compensated for the shooting efficiency disparity as both teams recorded the same number of successful field goals. “Without question,” May commented about this being the primary reason for Saturday’s close contest. “The first metric I usually assess is how many more shot opportunities we secure than our opponent, but I’ve had to refrain from monitoring it because it’s disheartening.” It could serve as a meaningful lesson for us, illustrating that if we can limit our turnovers to their level, leveraging our finishing ability around the rim… addressing this one aspect could potentially invigorate our defense, too.”Leading the charge in energy is Tre Donaldson. The point guard transfer from Auburn contributed 18 points and five assists with only two turnovers on Saturday. He has maintained an impressive assist-to-turnover ratio of nearly three to one throughout the season. However, if there is a notable concern regarding turnovers, it could be Danny Wolf. The Yale transfer performed well again on Saturday with 13 points and 14 rebounds (his fourth double-double in just nine games) but recorded a team-high four turnovers. This marked his sixth instance in nine games where he has committed four or more turnovers. The last turnover was particularly costly. U-M had possession while leading 83-80 when Wolf attempted to bring the ball up against Iowa’s three-quarter court press and delivered a cross-court skip pass which was intercepted. Iowa then transitioned the ball quickly, and moments later, Payton Sandfort made the game-tying shot from the corner. “If we manage the ball correctly, the game doesn’t become a nail-biter like that,” Donaldson stated. “That’s common knowledge.” Upcoming challenges await Michigan had the support of its home crowd on Saturday, but tough neutral site matches are on the horizon. The Wolverines will travel to New York City on Tuesday to take on recently-ranked Arkansas and its new coach, the legendary John Calipari, at Madison Square Garden in the Jimmy V Classic. Following that, they will face the undefeated Oklahoma (8-0) in Charlotte on Dec. 18 during the Jumpman Invitational. “This is where it truly starts to get tough,” May remarked. “The games are intensifying rapidly; all the external chatter − whether we’re ranked or not − I’m unsure of our current status in the polls, but all of that is irrelevant to me, although it does alter the dynamics.” But I feel positive about where we stand.”Furthermore, the rest of the squad appears to be hitting their stride. After scoring eight points or fewer in five of his first six games, center Vlad Goldin has now recorded 18+ points in three consecutive games, including a 20-point, 11-rebound performance on Saturday, marking his first double-double in the maize and blue. Despite the 83 points not feeling grand, U-M has also been performing admirably on defense. The Wolverines stand at No. 7 according to KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency (93.3), No. 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed (42.4%), No. 8 in two-point defense (41.7%) and ranks No. 5 in defensive assists permitted (36.4% of opponents’ baskets). This victory wasn’t fundamentally based on the team’s usual depth, as the bench recorded a season-low 15 points. However, despite that and a subpar shooting night from beyond the arc (4 of 20), Michigan still managed a win over a top-50 KenPom team. Just visualize the potential if they can eliminate those turnovers. Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
As the 2024-25 college basketball season reaches its first quarter, we’ve gleaned enough insights from Michigan basketball to confirm two key observations.
