SMU or Alabama? This is the College Football Playoff committee’s significant challenge as they approach the concluding rankings on Sunday. The Mustangs fought back against Clemson, tying the game with under 30 seconds remaining before ultimately losing 34-31 to the Tigers on a last-second 56-yard field goal. This defeat brings SMU’s record to 11-2, and […]
SMU or Alabama?
This is the College Football Playoff committee’s significant challenge as they approach the concluding rankings on Sunday. The Mustangs fought back against Clemson, tying the game with under 30 seconds remaining before ultimately losing 34-31 to the Tigers on a last-second 56-yard field goal.
This defeat brings SMU’s record to 11-2, and the Mustangs are likely to drop from their current No. 8 ranking. However, will they be pushed out of the playoff picture?
On Tuesday, Alabama overtook Miami for the last position in the provisional playoff lineup, despite holding a 9-3 record compared to Miami’s 10-2. The Hurricanes have lost two out of their last three games and concluded the season with a defeat against Syracuse.
It’s clear how Alabama could surpass a two-loss SMU from the same conference given the recent events. Still, it’s uncertain if the committee is eager to tackle that controversy. Committee chair Warde Manuel indicated on Tuesday evening that the potential for SMU to drop below Alabama remains, yet it is far from assured.
“If they drop out if they lose, I’m not sure,” Manuel stated. “What we’ll do is assess their performance, again, reviewing the game, holding in high regard those teams that are competing. There are 18 teams playing this weekend, and we will monitor all of them while assessing the outcomes of those matches, and we’ll see how the rankings change, if they change at all. As I mentioned in an interview on ESPN, two years back, TCU lost but retained their No. 3 position that year, so those scenarios can occur. Teams can lose and potentially remain in their spots. They might move down considerably or just a little, depending on the game’s result.”
We believe Clemson’s victory was not substantial enough to completely eliminate SMU from playoff contention. Here’s our final forecast for the playoff field when it is revealed on Sunday at noon ET on ESPN.
First-round byes
1. Oregon (13-0, Big Ten champion)
2. Georgia (11-2, SEC champion)
3. Boise State (12-1, Mountain West champion)
4. Arizona State (11-2, Big 12 champion)
These four teams appear quite clear-cut. Boise State commenced the weekend five ranks ahead of Arizona State and defeated UNLV by 14 points in the MWC title match. Arizona State triumphed over Iowa State in the Big 12 championship and stood two ranks ahead of Clemson in Tuesday’s standings. Clemson didn’t perform sufficiently to secure a first-round bye, and Boise State is likely to remain ahead of Arizona State.
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First-round matchups
No. 12 SMU (11-2, at-large) at No. 5 Texas (11-2, at-large)
No. 11 Clemson (10-3, ACC champion) at No. 6 Penn State (11-2, at-large)
No. 10 Indiana (11-1, at-large) at No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1, at-large)
No. 9 Tennessee (10-2, at-large) at No. 8 Ohio State (10-2, at-large)
Things get particularly intriguing here. We project SMU to claim the last spot in the playoff lineup over Alabama while sitting just below Clemson due to the head-to-head defeat on Saturday night. It would be unusual for the committee to include both Clemson and SMU, placing the Mustangs ahead of the Tigers.
Nonetheless, we are uncertain if head-to-head results will influence the other first-round matchups. Texas and Penn State are set to host first-round games after their conference championship losses on Saturday. We anticipate the committee will rank them ahead of Notre Dame since both losses were within one score. Texas held the No. 2 position in Tuesday’s rankings, ahead of No. 3 Penn State and No. 4 Notre Dame.
With the top four conference champions receiving byes, this would likely push the three teams down to positions 5-7 in the playoff and leave Ohio State at No. 8. Yes, the Buckeyes triumphed over Penn State in the regular season. But can the committee demote Penn State beneath Ohio State without doing the same for Texas?
Positioning Notre Dame at No. 7 behind Texas and Penn State also allows the committee to sidestep rematches or clashes between teams from the same conference in first-round matchups. Indiana seems securely at No. 10 and would face the Fighting Irish instead of Notre Dame or a repeat against Ohio State.
