MLB Speculations

Juan Soto’s stay in the Bronx lasted just one year, as the superstar outfielder agreed to a deal with the New York Mets in free agency.

Per ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Soto will sign a 15-year, $765 million contract to join the Mets, marking the largest contract in professional sports history. Passan added that the deal has no deferments and includes escalators that can reach above $800 million.

According to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, Soto’s contract includes an opt-out after the fifth year. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that if Soto opts out after five years, the Mets can void the move by raising his average annual value for the final 10 years of the deal.

When the New York Yankees acquired Soto from the San Diego Padres in December 2023, they were able to sign him to a one-year, $31 million deal to avoid arbitration.

General manager Brian Cashman was upfront even before spring training started that he didn’t expect Soto to sign an extension before he could become a free agent after the 2024 campaign.

Given Soto’s age and track record of success, he was in line to sign one of the richest contracts in MLB history. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout are the only other players currently with deals worth more than $400 million.

Soto previously turned down a 15-year, $440 million extension with the Washington Nationals in 2022 that prompted the organization to trade him to San Diego. That contract would have been the richest in MLB history by total value at the time.

When you combine Soto wanting to maximize his negotiating leverage with Scott Boras being his agent, it would have been a surprise if the Yankees had been able to get him to sign a new contract ahead of free agency.

Soto only helped his market with how he performed in New York. The 26-year-old was voted to the AL All-Star team as a starter. He hit .288/.419/.569 with a career-high 41 homers.

The postseason only helped increase Soto’s leverage, particularly his go-ahead homer in the 10th inning in Game 5 of the ALCS to send the Yankees to the World Series.

Since being called up to the big leagues as a 19-year-old in 2018, Soto has done nothing but hit. His career OPS+ of 160 is the 19th-best in MLB history. The only active players ahead of Soto in OPS+ are Mike Trout (173) and Aaron Judge (173).

Mets owner Steve Cohen has not hesitated to make big moves if he believes it will improve the team’s chances of winning a World Series.

There have been times when that aggressiveness has backfired. The Mets traded Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer midway through the 2023 season because the team was struggling so badly.

Other times, it has worked to the Mets’ benefit to have Cohen’s deep wallet. There probably aren’t a lot of fans in Queens who are upset that Francisco Lindor is the highest-paid shortstop in MLB right now.

While every deal of this magnitude contains some element of risk, it’s hard to imagine this deal for Soto goes bad for the Mets any time soon. He’s arguably the best hitter in all of baseball and should have several more years of high-level performance given his age.

The Mets were two wins away from reaching the World Series last season without a great lineup. They are much more formidable now with Lindor and Soto hitting at the top of the order as the club looks to get back to the postseason following their surprise run in 2024.