Mizzou hoops offers peek at analytics process

COLUMBIA, Mo. — Tucked in a media room within the bowels of Mizzou Arena, Missouri men’s basketball coach Dennis Gates and his staff did something unprecedented Thursday afternoon.

He taught a class to reporters. Basketball Analytics 101, you could call it.

For 75 minutes, Gates, assistant coach Ryan Sharbaugh and two consultants from HD Intelligence — the advanced and proprietary statistics service that MU contracts with for proprietary data — opened the books for reporters to explore the numbers used by the team and ask questions.

“This is unique,” said Andy Schmitt, an HD Intelligence vice president who was part of the educational session. “This is special.”

Gates has been clear and consistent in wanting to help outlets that cover his team, including the Post-Dispatch, have access to the statistics that drive the Tigers’ internal analysis and decision-making processes. He said as much during a sit-down interview almost exactly a year ago.

“I wish HD Intelligence would be able to be accessible to all media writers because it would help you see the game a completely different way,” Gates told the Post-Dispatch last December. “And I think that would allow more intriguing articles to be written because you’ll see it in a totally different lens. It’s like watching a black-and-white movie versus watching in 3D.”

And sure enough, it is.

HD Intelligence provides four-page box scores chock-full of rich, detailed stats compared to the one-pager traditionally printed out after games. Want to know how many points Missouri scored on possessions that took between seven and 12 seconds off the shot clock against California? Or how often forward Mark Mitchell attempted two-point shots away from the rim against Kansas? Or how many fewer 3-pointers the Tigers tried against Cal versus their benchmark heading into the game?

All of that is delivered almost instantly to the MU coaching staff and was part of example analytical box scores that Gates and HD Intelligence shared with reporters. One of the conditions of Thursday’s meeting was that the full box scores, which are proprietary and kept under wraps, could not be shared.

But Gates was happy to share examples of how he uses analytics to make decisions.

Before each game, for example, Mizzou and HD Intelligence meet to establish a statistical game plan for how to attack an upcoming opponent. They set benchmarks for shot selection — at the rim, from the mid-range and from behind the 3-point arc — and how well they need to shoot from each spot to beat a team.

Against Cal, for example, analytics called for 37% of MU’s shots to be at the rim, 43% to be from 3 and 20% to come from the 2-point range in between.

And that game was a clear example of Gates knowing when to throw an analytical game plan out the window. The HD Intelligence box score he received at halftime of that game, when the Tigers trailed by 16 points, told him something needed to change. They needed more free-throw attempts, so he instructed players to get to the line versus shoot 3s.

As a result, Missouri exceeded its rim attempts benchmark but came in far below its goal for 3-point attempts.

“It’s not only telling me who to play,” Gates said of the halftime numbers he receives, “it’s telling me what to say.”

He and Sharbaugh also explained where traditional stats fall short in getting at coaches’ decisions and instructions through the example of points off turnovers — one of the standard stats on the basic box scores provided to media between the end of a game and the start of a news conference.

“Points off turnovers are great, but what HDI has, truly it’s points off steals,” Sharbaugh said. “A turnover can happen, but it could be a dead-ball turnover.”

And yes, the HD Intelligence report breaks down how each team did with possessions that started in different ways: inbounding after a dead ball, after a made basket, off of a rebound and off of a steal. The differences can influence coaching decisions.

Here’s how: Cal scored a whopping 2.11 points per possession after stealing the ball from Missouri, which is lethal offense. However, on dead-ball possessions, the Golden Bears were getting only 0.93 points per possession off of Mizzou. The distinction between a turnover that led to a live ball and a dead ball was a stark one in that game and generally is in most games.

So when, a few days later, the Tigers committed some shot clock violations against Kansas, Gates wasn’t mad — the numbers told him that was better than chucking up a shot or committing a live-ball turnover that would have given KU an analytical edge.

“There’s no advantage” on dead balls, Gates said. “They took the ball out. And how was they scoring (well against MU)? Rebound, push. Where the common fan or you guys will be like, ‘Oh, they had 10 shot clock violations. Offense sucks.’ That was the best offense sometimes, to have that ball dead and take the air out the game a little bit.”

The live ball-dead ball difference shown in analytics also influences one of the team’s broad instructions to players.

“Our message to our guys (is): ‘If you get trapped, throw the ball to the 10th row,’” Gates said. “Don’t just throw it in play. Throw it to the 10th row, and now we can defend five-on-five and reset with no disadvantages.”

Thursday’s look behind the curtain could wind up being the start of a bigger movement from Gates, Missouri and HD Intelligence to better connect reporters with analytics so fans see and understand the statistics that drive coaching decisions and determine the outcomes of games. It’s one of Gates’ visions for the program he’s building: He frequently praises the basketball intelligence of Mizzou fans and now wants to cater to it.

“My goal, my intention is to just allow you (reporters) to get the deeper dive and the perspective that I have, our staff have and the business around us have,” Gates said. “It will also help you guys in narration of the stories — good, bad or ugly. … My hope is that our common fan, the ones that are in the stands, the ones that are at home, they get a better understanding through you guys’ work — a different perspective to see the game of basketball being played (and) the decisions that’s being made.”