USATSI Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys […]
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn’t be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you’ve got the right guys in — and the wrong guys out.
It’s too early to be absolutely sure which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We’ll go through every game and highlight the players who aren’t obvious starts and sits (because you don’t need to be told to start Derrick Henry). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
More Week 15 content:
Thu, Dec 12 at
8:15 pm ET
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It’s really hard to get a grip on the 49ers defense — last week, they dominated an ill-prepared Bears offense, the week before, they were shellacked in a snowstorm, the week before that, they played without Brock Purdy in chilly Green Bay, and dealt with a negative game script. I think we can count on them to be zone heavy — their past three games without the cold weather saw them play that coverage at an 80%-plus clip. And they probably won’t blitz much, that’s not who they are, even without Nick Bosa on the field. Matthew Stafford is far more efficient and doesn’t attack downfield as much against zone, but his TD rate collapses from 8% against man-to-man coverage to 1.7% versus zone coverage. It might explain why Stafford has one game with multiple passing touchdowns in his past five against the 49ers, playoffs included. That includes Week 3 when the Rams beat the 49ers by three, though the better explanation is that Stafford didn’t have Puka Nacua nor Cooper Kupp for the game. I still think Stafford will struggle — only three quarterbacks have posted more than 18 Fantasy points against them this year, and all three had at least modest rushing production to help them out.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp (high-end No. 2 WR), George Kittle
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, Isaac Guerendo (low-end No. 2 RB)
FLEX: Deebo Samuel
SITS: Matthew Stafford, Demarcus Robinson, Patrick Taylor, Ricky Pearsall, Colby Parkinson, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Israel Abanikanda, 49ers DST, Rams DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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Perhaps my favorite stat from Adam Thielen’s Week 14 game was that 6 of 11 targets thrown his way went at least 12 Air Yards. A week after I thought he was a high-volume, low-ADOT receiver, Thielen punks me and everyone else in the world by picking up some big gains against the vaunted Philadelphia defense. His route near the right sideline against Cooper DeJean left the rookie in a blender as he picked up 24 yards on a deep throw from Bryce Young. Yes, Thielen is target-dependent, and yes, Young is playing better but far from a finished product, but the Panthers veteran feels like a safe pick against a Cowboys pass defense that’s let up at least 15 PPR points to a receiver in four of its past five games (and nearly did in each of the past five).
OBVIOUS STARTS: CeeDee Lamb (No. 2 WR)
STARTS: Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle (No. 2 RB), Adam Thielen (low-end No. 2 WR in PPR, flex in non-PPR), Jake Ferguson
SITS: Cooper Rush, Bryce Young, Brandin Cooks, Xavier Legette, David Moore, Jalen Tolbert, Tommy Tremble, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys DST, Panthers DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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STARTS: Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams, Brian Thomas Jr., Jets DST
FLEX: Braelon Allen, Isaiah Davis, Travis Etienne (low-end flex)
SITS: Aaron Rodgers (high-end No. 2 QB), Mac Jones, Brenton Strange (desperation starter in TE-premium), Parker Washington, Tank Bigsby, Tyler Conklin, Jaguars DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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If there’s one thing the Steelers really exposed in their two games against the Browns, it’s that Jameis Winston’s kryptonite is pressure. They got close to him on over 40% of their snaps in each game, and he struggled in both. Specifically, last week, Winston was pressured on 18 dropbacks and completed five passes for 50 yards when pressured, though that includes the 15-yard TD to David Njoku in the fourth quarter. If the Chiefs can pressure Winston like the Steelers did, they might be able to keep him from putting up huge stats even with huge passing volume. That’s easier said than done — Kansas City’s blitz rate has increased over its past five games, but its pass rush pressure rate and sack rate have decreased. The Chiefs have 10 sacks in those five games, which is about league average. Tack on the Chiefs losing cornerback Joshua Williams, who had been having a solid year, and the potential is there for Winston to have another game with over 29 Fantasy points, something he’s done in 3 of 4 starts against non-Steelers defenses.
Note: Forecast on Sunday calls for strong winds with gusts up to 30 miles per hour. Once confirmed, this weather would downgrade the passing games and kicking games.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Travis Kelce
STARTS: Jerry Jeudy (top-15 PPR WR), Chiefs DST
FLEX: DeAndre Hopkins (PPR), Isiah Pacheco (borderline starter)
SITS: Jameis Winston, Patrick Mahomes, Elijah Moore (decent No. 3 PPR WR), Xavier Worthy, Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, Browns DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara, Terry McLaurin
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Zach Ertz, Commanders DST
SITS: Jake Haener, Juwan Johnson (streaming TE), Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jeremy McNichols, Kendre Miller, Foster Moreau, Saints DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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I watched Waddle’s 25 targets over his past three games. Only six of them were on pass routes where Waddle ran at least 10 yards, and of those six targets, Waddle appeared to be the first read on three of them. I don’t mind that Waddle is a second read, especially since he is more than capable of exploding into empty space against zone coverage, but there’s such an emphasis by Miami for Tua Tagovailoa to get the ball out of his hands as fast as possible that it keeps all of their receivers from having splash plays. And if Tagovailoa’s first read isn’t Waddle, then it’s going to show up in his target volume and his statistics. Case in point: Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jonnu Smith each have had a higher target share than Waddle since Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8. Houston’s pass defense has been struggling, and I suspect they’ll play a lot of zone, just as they have in most of their past seven games. That puts a damper on Waddle’s potential for another big game, especially since Miami’s seen more man-to-man coverage lately, and Waddle’s had a 30% target share against that kind of coverage in his past three.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De’Von Achane, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill
STARTS: Tua Tagovailoa, Jonnu Smith
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle
SITS: C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell, Dalton Schultz, Raheem Mostert, Dolphins DST, Texans DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Malik Nabers (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Mark Andrews, Ravens DST
FLEX: Zay Flowers, Tyrone Tracy Jr.
SITS: Tommy DeVito, Justice Hill, Rashod Bateman, Dan Bellinger, Isaiah Likely, Darius Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
1:00 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown
STARTS: Tony Pollard, Tee Higgins
FLEX: Calvin Ridley
SITS: Will Levis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (low-end No. 3 WR), Andrei Iosivas, Tyjae Spears, Mike Gesicki, Chig Okonkwo, Bengals DST, Titans DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
4:25 pm ET
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Based on the past three weeks, it sure looks like Trey McBride has assumed the role of Arizona’s No. 1 option in the passing game. He’s come out of the Cardinals‘ Week 11 bye with a 35.7% target share and an insane 13.7 targets per game. By comparison, Marvin Harrison Jr. has a 22.6% target share with 8.7 targets per game, which isn’t bad at all! But McBride has dominated red-zone targets (8 to 3) and has been more efficient with his work (2.35 yards per route run and 7.3 yards per target is, well above Harrison’s 1.22 and six, respectively). Both have had four end-zone targets each (Harrison has one touchdown). It’s tough to expect this to change, and given the track record of No. 1 targets from Kyler Murray, it’s probably going to make Harrison more of a touchdown-dependent Fantasy option, which he’s sort of been all year. All six of Harrison’s games with over 15 PPR points have included a touchdown, while all six of his games without a touchdown have resulted in 8.9 PPR points or less, including last week versus Seattle. The Patriots have afforded a receiving score to an outside receiver (the same role Harrison typically plays) seven times over 13 games but just three in their past six. The Pats do tend to play a lot of man-to-man coverage, and Harrison has seen a much better target per route run rate against man (30.5%) than zone (19.3%), so that could help, but in a game where game script probably will favor James Conner more than Harrison (and McBride too), it makes Harrison a difficult player to trust.
OBVIOUS STARTS: James Conner, Trey McBride
STARTS: Kyler Murray (low-end starter), Rhamondre Stevenson (low-end No. 2 RB), Hunter Henry (low-end No. 1 TE), Cardinals DST
FLEX: Marvin Harrison Jr. (low-end flex)
SITS: Drake Maye, Demario Douglas (PPR), Michael Wilson, Antonio Gibson, Austin Hooper, Emari Demercado, Patriots DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
4:25 pm ET
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Only two quarterbacks — Lamar Jackson and Jameis Winston (on 58 pass attempts) have crossed the 20-point mark against the Broncos this season. They are also two of four quarterbacks on the year to record multiple touchdowns, passing or rushing, on Denver. It’s the kind of stingy, opportunistic, detailed defense that could really hinder the Colts. As for Richardson, he hasn’t attempted anywhere near as many passes as Winston did this year, and Richardson has three games with multiple touchdowns, not to mention just three games with over 200 passing yards. Most of those multi-score games came against defenses that played a good amount of man-to-man coverage, something the Broncos did a lot of at the beginning of the year but not lately. Richardson has a 44% completion rate and a 1.5% TD rate against zone coverage in his past four games, and his completion rate dips even further to 40.6% when he’s pressured. Denver’s had a bunch of games where they have success pressuring the quarterback without blitzing and with zone coverage — that’s probably how they’ll attack Richardson. I would be nervous to trust him in Fantasy lineups, even with Josh Downs back.
STARTS: Courtland Sutton, Jonathan Taylor (low-end No. 2 RB), Broncos DST
FLEX: Josh Downs
SITS: Bo Nix (borderline starter), Anthony Richardson (borderline starter), Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Colts DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
4:25 pm ET
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The Bills defense struggled last week and arguably face a tougher test this week at Detroit. Buffalo gave up a huge 5.2 yards per carry to running backs in Weeks 9 through 13 before corralling Kyren Williams to three yards per rush, but I’d be a little surprised if David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs were held to a similar rushing average. If the Lions dictate the game flow with the run and build a lead that way, then Josh Allen will be playing from behind again. It’s been rare for the Bills to be in that situation, but last week, it meant a huge bump in targets for Amari Cooper. Before Week 14, he was on the field for a grand total of 18 plays when the Bills were losing. And even with all of the targets he had, Cooper and Josh Allen weren’t quite on the same page on a number of plays. Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid are expected to play, and they’ll snag some targets away from Cooper and Khalil Shakir. Detroit’s pass rush remains suspect due to injuries, and their pass defense has been especially generous to outside wideouts in its past three games (16.3 yards per catch and 6.8 yards after catch per reception). I figure one of Coleman or Cooper will have a decent game, but neither should be considered reliable, and Shakir’s role feels so locked in that Fantasy managers shouldn’t be afraid to trust him as a high-end No. 3 WR.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, James Cook, Khalil Shakir (low-end No. 2 WR), Sam LaPorta (borderline starter)
FLEX: Jameson Williams
SITS: Dalton Kincaid (borderline starter), Amari Cooper (low-end No. 3 WR), Keon Coleman (stash), Tim Patrick (desperation starter), Ty Montgomery, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Bills DST, Lions DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
4:25 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Mike Evans
STARTS: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White (if Bucky Irving is out), Cade Otton (borderline starter)
SITS: Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston (desperation starter), Josh Palmer (desperation PPR starter), Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Kimani Vidal (desperation RB), Gus Edwards, Stone Smartt, Chargers DST (low-end option), Buccaneers DST
Sun, Dec 15 at
4:25 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown (low-end No. 1 WR)
STARTS: Najee Harris (low-end No. 2 RB), Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith
SITS: Russell Wilson, Pat Freiermuth (streaming TE), Jaylen Warren (desperation PPR RB), Calvin Austin III, Van Jefferson, Mike Williams, Grant Calcaterra, Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers DST (low-end option)
Sun, Dec 15 at
8:20 pm ET
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There wasn’t consistency to DK Metcalf’s speed, explosiveness, footwork or timing with Geno Smith last week. At times he ran really fast, but usually only in a straight line. At times his footwork was clumsy, making it harder for him to separate and easier for defenders to defend him. Smith rarely hit him in stride, frequently resulting in open targets becoming contested catches, some of which he did not win. And in the first half he ran a lot of downfield routes that didn’t work with Smith’s get-it-out nature when he was pressured. Worst of all, Metcalf looked noticeably slower last week than he did in the beginning of the year. It’s very likely he’s playing with the injury that sidelined him for Weeks 8 and 9, and some stats prove it:
| Wks 1-7 (7 gms) | Wks 11+ (4 gms) | |
| targets per gm | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| 15+ air yards tgts/gm | 3.7 | 2.7 |
| end-zone targets | 5 | 2 |
| yds per rec | 16.2 | 12.8 |
| yds after catch per rec | 5.5 | 2.5 |
| PPR per gm | 15.11 | 10.85 |
The Packers aren’t a blitz-heavy team, nor is their defense among the best at getting pressure on the quarterback or even sacking the quarterback (about league average in both). This is a positive for the Seattle passing game since Geno Smith should be able to stay on time and hit his intended targets without having to move a ton. Theoretically, that’s a plus for Metcalf, but it just means he’ll have a solid target share which we’ve already seen and still haven’t gotten great results from. It doesn’t help that overall the Packers are top-10 in fewest PPR points allowed to receivers, nor that Jaire Alexander is on track to play on Sunday and potentially match up with Metcalf. You’re best off considering Metcalf as a middle- to low-end flex or No. 3 WR until he shows signs of bouncing back.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: Zach Charbonnet (No. 1 RB), Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tucker Kraft, Packers DST, Seahawks DST
FLEX: DK Metcalf (low-end flex), Jayden Reed (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Jordan Love, Geno Smith, Christian Watson (desperation boom-bust WR), Romeo Doubs, Tyler Lockett, Dontayvion Wicks, Noah Fant
Mon, Dec 16 at
8:00 pm ET
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Chicago’s offense was the messiest it’s been since Shane Waldron’s firing last week. Caleb Williams was jumpy in the pocket, sometimes without the 49ers pass rush close by, and there were timing issues all over the place. D.J. Moore wasn’t working downfield, Keenan Allen wasn’t getting targeted, and no one in the Bears offense was separating much from the Niners’ talented defensive backs. The 49ers blitzed at 9.1% of their snaps last week and sacked Williams seven times, so color me nervous to start any Bears players with confidence against a Vikings defense that blitzes at the highest rate (40.1%) of anyone in the entire NFL! I should also point out that the Vikings didn’t blitz Williams much in their first meeting in Chicago, and it led to him and his wideouts having a great game and the Bears almost winning. Hence, expect the juice to get turned up by the Vikings and for Williams to be forced into short throws.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Jordan Addison, Vikings DST
FLEX: D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen
SITS: Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze (low-end flex at best), D’Andre Swift, T.J. Hockenson, Cole Kmet, Cam Akers, Bears DST
Mon, Dec 16 at
8:30 pm ET
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OBVIOUS STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Brock Bowers
STARTS: Drake London, Darnell Mooney, Jakobi Meyers, Falcons DST
FLEX: Sincere McCormick (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Desmond Ridder, Ray-Ray McCloud (desperation PPR WR), Kyle Pitts, Tre Tucker, Alexander Mattison (desperation PPR RB), Tyler Allgeier, Michael Mayer, Raiders DST
