Men’s basketball was supposed to save us. Ranked ninth heading into the season, Tommy Lloyd’s team was going to allow us to move on from a disaster of a football season and enjoy plenty of wins, big-time matchups and hopefully a deep tournament run. Nine games into the season there have been few wins, no […]
Men’s basketball was supposed to save us.
Ranked ninth heading into the season, Tommy Lloyd’s team was going to allow us to move on from a disaster of a football season and enjoy plenty of wins, big-time matchups and hopefully a deep tournament run.
Nine games into the season there have been few wins, no big-time victories and the tournament seems like anything but a guarantee.
The good news for Arizona is that despite its 4-5 non-conference record, one whose latest loss was a game the Wildcats coughed up in Phoenix against UCLA, there is still time to turn things around.
The bad news is that up to now the team has not shown much to make you think it is capable of righting the ship and rolling through the Big 12.
This is where Lloyd comes in. More specifically, this is where his abilities as a coach — to motivate, to tinker, to create — will be shown. Or not.
It’s clear this year’s Cats are lacking in some key areas. Their three-point shooting has been inconsistent at best and there is no true low-post scoring threat. Rim protection is tough to come by and the high-low game that has defined Arizona’s attack is unavailable at the moment.
What the team does have is a dynamic back court, athleticism and enough depth to in theory be able to find a lineup or lineups that work.
It’s on Lloyd and his staff to figure out how to use it.
The coach said as much after Saturday’s loss to the Bruins, especially in light of Mo Krivas’ latest injury troubles.
“Obviously with big Mo not playing we kind of are figuring out on the fly how this team is going to look going forward and trying to tweak some things,” he said. “Maybe see this team has some other strengths. So I just didn’t feel like we had a great, maybe not the players’ fault, but I just didn’t think we have a great understanding of how we wanted to attack and play today, pressure situations. Obviously, we gotta continue to work on that and build that certainty and that identity within the guys now that it looks like Mo is going to be out for a little bit.”
Certainty and identity, two things that every good team needs and both of which are lacking with this group. It is missing toughness, grit and the ability to close out games.
Arizona under Lloyd certainly had an identity the last three seasons. But now? Arizona’s offense is ranked 37th in KenPom. The Wildcats are struggling from the outside and are averaging just 15.4 assists per game, which is tied for 102nd in the country.
Something has not been working.
Known for offense over the last few years, if this season’s team is to reach its potential things will have to look different. For the first time since Lloyd arrived there is no dominant or consistent low-post scoring presence, and further there is no hybrid, Swiss Army Knife-wing like Pelle Larsson who could do anything and everything on the court.
What the team does have though is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year who, as a fifth-year senior Caleb Love has the kind of experience coaches dream of. It also has a point guard in Jaden Bradley who looks ready to be among the country’s best, a talented freshman in Carter Bryant and a bouncy wing in K.J. Lewis.
There’s also veterans Trey Townsend and Tobe Awaka, each of whom are in their first seasons with the program but have postseason experience. Anthony Dell’Orso has taken a step up in competition but has brought his 3-point shot with him and Henri Veesaar, in this third college season, and should finally be ready for minutes as a 7-footer who can step out to the 3-point line (and is not afraid to let it rip, as was seen against UCLA).
Is this as good a roster as last year’s or any of the two before it? So far the answer is a resounding no, but that comes with a catch.
It’s important to note that while Arizona is certainly not off to the start any of us wanted or expected, things may not be quite as bad as they appear. If you are a believer in analytics, as of Dec. 16th EvanMiya.com has the Cats as the 24th-best team in the country while Haslemetrics.com lists them at 19th.
EvanMiya shows Arizona to have both a top-25 offense and defense, which if that holds for the rest of the season should result in plenty more wins than losses.
Then again, things could go the other direction.
Lloyd said after the UCLA loss that it was important for the team to stick together and not splinter. With plenty of big games ahead and a path to the dance still very much in front of them, that probably won’t be an issue.
What could be a problem is if the coaches and players either can’t figure out how to maximize what they have and are or figure things out too late. A subpar nonconference performance does not end the season, but it does plenty to whittle down the margin for error.
As of now there are four top-25 teams left on Arizona’s schedule, with another three who received votes in the latest AP Poll. That group makes up 10 of the 20 Big 12 conference games, and while the rankings are sure to change over the next handful of weeks the fact is despite how it may feel, the season is far from over and opportunity to make this a good one still very much exists.
