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CBS Sports predicts each SEC Football team's first loss in 2025

August is officially here, and the 2025 college football season officially begins three weeks from Saturday with select teams competing in Week 0 beginning Aug. 23. Of course, the real action doesn’t start until the following weekend when the SEC kicks off its season on Thursday, Aug. 28.
Before that, though, CBS Sports pulled out its own crystal ball and provided a glimpse into when each of the SEC’s 16 teams could suffer their first losses of the 2025 season. Given the current parity of college football, especially in the day and age of NIL and the NCAA Transfer Portal, CBS Sports isn’t projecting any SEC team to go undefeated during the regular-season.
So, with that in mind, CBS Sports went through the schedules for all 16 SEC teams and identified where each program could face its first stumbling block of the season. Check out how CBS Sports sees things shaping out for the SEC in 2025 below:
First loss: at Georgia, Sept. 27
This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, especially given how difficult the game was a year ago in Tuscaloosa, where Alabama needed a SportsCenter Top 10 play from star freshman WR Ryan Williams just to escape with a victory. Add to the fact that Georgia hasn’t lost in Athens since mid-2019, and this certainly could be the Crimson Tide’s first loss in 2025.

First loss: at Ole Miss, Sept. 13
The Rebels have won the last two games in this series and the last four games played inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. And while Ole Miss certainly enters the 2025 season with serious question marks, it still has the superior roster in terms of sheer talent compared to the Razorbacks. That said, an 0-1 start to SEC play could signal the beginning of the end for Arkansas’ Sam Pittman.
First loss: at Oklahoma, Sept. 30
CBS Sports predicts Auburn will open 3-0 on the season and be in the Top 25 when it travels to Norman in Week 4. This game will also be the much-anticipated return of former Sooners transfer Jackson Arnold, who is the Tigers’ new QB1 this season. But given Auburn’s struggles in SEC openers under third-year head coach Hugh Freeze, this could be another 0-1 start to SEC play for the Tigers.
First loss: at LSU, Sept. 13
After snapping a five-game losing streak in its series with a 27-16 upset of LSU last season in Gainesville, CBS Sports expects the host Tigers won’t be as forgiving in Baton Rouge this season. The Gators are also just 1-6 in its last seven games in Death Valley, with the lone road win coming in 2016. While the QB battle will be one to watch, LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier has the weapons to outduel UF’s DJ Lagway.

First loss: at Auburn, Oct. 11
It’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry where anything and everything can happen in this series — just look back at 2013’s “Prayer in Jordan-Hare.” That said, the Bulldogs have completely dominated this series of late, winning eight straight, including in the 2017 SEC Championship game. But given the pressure already building around Freeze, this could be the perfect time for a program-defining upset.
First loss: vs. Ole Miss, Sept. 6
This is a rare Week 2 SEC opener for both teams, and after the Wildcats slapped the host Rebels with a 20-17 upset in Oxford last season, expect Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss to be eager for a little revenge this season in Lexington. The Rebels have actually won their last two games inside Kroger Field and three of the last five on the road dating back to 2001.
First loss: at Clemson, Aug. 30
CBS Sports clearly doesn’t expect the visiting Tigers to come out on top in this season’s much-anticipated Week 1 showdown in the Battle of the Death Valleys. Should this loss come to pass, it’ll be LSU’s sixth consecutive season-opening loss, and fifth straight under head coach Brian Kelly. Of course, the Tigers will have a chance to avenge this loss next season, but that won’t sit well with the growing Kelly critics.

First loss: vs. Tennessee, Sept. 27
CBS Sports is clearly higher on Hail State than others, predicting a 4-0 start to the 2025 season, including a Week 2 home win over defending Big 12 champ Arizona State. Should that come to pass, the Volunteers would certainly pose the greatest threat to knocking off Jeff Lebby‘s upstart Bulldogs. Of course, given Tennessee’s own question marks, especially at quarterback, this could be a lot closer than expected.
First loss: vs. Alabama, Oct. 11
Due to a rare scheduling gift, the Tigers don’t leave their home state of Missouri until a mid-October trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn. Of course, CBS Sports doesn’t expect Mizzou to leave home unscathed, predicting a loss to a likely Top 10-ranked Crimson Tide in Week 7. Alabama has won the last six straight in the series vs. Missouri, outscoring the Tigers by an average score of 39-12 since 1978.
First loss: vs. Texas, Oct. 11 (Dallas)
The Red River Shootout remains one of the most competitive rivalries in college football, with both teams trading wins each of the past three years. Should the Sooners remain undefeated entering Week 7 as CBS Sports’ predicts, this’ll be another potential Top 10 matchup. No team has won back-to-back games in this rivalry series since OU won three straight (2019-21) and five of six between 2016-21.

First loss: vs. LSU, Sept. 27
In what has become a budding rivalry series given its back-and-forth nature with the home team winning the last five meetings. That includes the host Tigers edged out Ole Miss in overtime last season from Baton Rouge. CBS Sports clearly likes LSU to snap that trend with a win in Oxford this season, and if it doesn’t, a road loss at Ole Miss could be the beginning of the end for the Tigers’ Playoff hopes in 2025.
First loss: at Missouri, Sept. 20
The Gamecocks were arguably one of the college football’s hottest teams last season, closing out the regular-season on a six-game win streak. And based on this scenario, CBS Sports expects that roll to carry over with three straight wins to open the 2025 season. But that run could come to an end in the SEC’s OTHER Columbia, where new Mizzou QB Beau Pribula will face his first serious test vs. the Gamecocks.
First loss: vs. Georgia, Sept. 13
This is another one that shouldn’t come as a surprise simply based on recent history, with the Bulldogs and Kirby Smart having won eight straight in the series by a dominating average score of 38-13 since a 41-0 blowout in Knoxville in 2017. CBS Sports clearly expects more of the same in 2025, which will be a full decade since Tennessee last beat Georgia inside Neyland Stadium: a 38-31 win in 2015.

First loss: at Notre Dame, Sept. 13
This is the back-half of a home-and-home series between the two college football bluebloods after the visiting Fighting Irish delivered the Aggies a 23-13 home loss last season in College Station. Notre Dame has established itself as a perennial national title contender after making the CFP national title game last year, and CBS Sports believes the host Irish will simply be too much for the Aggies to handle on the road.
First loss: at Florida, Oct. 4
The Longhorns have never lost to the Gators in four previous matchups, so this might come as a bit of a shock, especially with CBS Sports projecting Texas will open 4-0 and coming off a bye before traveling to Gainesville. Of course, the Swamp is an unforgiving place to play and Gators QB DJ Lagway will likely be amped to outduel ‘Horns QB Arch Manning in a battle between two former No. 1 overall recruits.
First loss: at South Carolina, Sept. 13
The Commodores will have one more season with star QB Diego Pavia, who is already suggesting this year’s Vanderbilt squad has championship potential. That potential will face its first serious test in Columbia, S.C., where the Gamecocks have their own superstar at QB in Heisman Trophy contender LaNorris Sellers. If this is a shootout, South Carolina will likely have the advantage in firepower.
NIL
So what are schools spending money on now?
Good morning, and thanks for spending part of your day with Extra Points.
I’m headed to Washington, D.C. (okay fiiiine, Maryland), tomorrow for the NCAA convention. Kyle Rowland of NIL Wire and I will be around until Thursday evening, and we’d love to say hello and chat! If you’d like to meet up, shoot me an email. We are also hosting a happy hour with College Sports Solutions at 8 p.m. on Wednesday at the Belvedere Lobby Bar. No RSVP is required, so feel free to join us for some beverages and off-the-record conversations.
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Since I’m flying Tuesday morning and will be out and about, I figured today would be a good day to open the ol’ mailbag and answer your questions. As always, mailbag questions are accepted on a rolling basis via email, Bluesky, texting, etc.

Some NCAA-sponsored sports adding plenty of new teams at the moment include beach volleyball, STUNT, women’s wrestling and lacrosse. These sports don’t typically require as much in the way of startup costs (you don’t need to build a new facility for a women’s wrestling program, after all), have growing high school and club participation levels and can provide a lower-cost way for schools to comply with Title IX sport sponsorship requirements.
Usually, if a school is adding sports, it’s because it is more focused on enrollment-related goals and/or Title IX/conference sport sponsorship requirements, rather than competitive excellence or ticket revenue generation. So sports that don’t require lots of supporting infrastructure and have access to enough recruits will always be attractive. That’s also why it is generally harder to add sports like hockey or baseball, since those tend to require more expensive infrastructure supports.
Across the country, and especially at the small school level, you also sometimes see growth in sport sponsorship that exists completely outside the NCAA. Examples of those sports include rugby, esports, ultimate frisbee and women’s flag football. Some of these may eventually fall under the purview of the NCAA … and some may not!
Speaking of spending money, reader Domo asks

Well … I think that depends on how you define “cutting back.”
It’s true that in Ye Olden Times (i.e., before 2020), it was common for schools to spend money on gold-plating locker rooms, practice facilities, meeting rooms and stadiums, all in the hope of improving recruiting outcomes. If you couldn’t directly give cash to athletes, the thinking was, you could woo them with sleep pods and podcasting studios and Big Buck Hunter arcade cabinets.
But if you want to play Big Buck Hunter, you don’t need to go to a school with a machine in the locker room. You don’t even need to go to Dave and Busters. You can just buy a machine yourself, thanks to cash. And schools, be it via officially sanctioned House payments or whatever we’re pretending marketing deals are, can now give athletes that cash directly.
I’ve heard of a few Power 4 programs that have either postponed or scaled back previously planned facility investments that would fall under this category so they can spend that money directly paying athletes (as well as other stuff). Personally, I think that’s a better investment anyway.
But not every facility investment is “turning the film room into a go-kart track.” Schools also spend money on facilities to do mundane stuff like “keep stadiums built in 1927 at least kinda up to modern building codes” or “add Wi-Fi” or “replace bleachers with actual chairs.”
In fact, because of this crushing need to grow revenue at every level, many programs are looking at spending more on facilities … to help their stadiums better monetize their audience. That means more luxury boxes, more high-end concessions, more bathrooms (so you can serve more booze), more parking and more experiences. Conspicuously absent from that list, of course, is more seating. Usually, capacity is getting smaller, not larger.
So I wouldn’t look for facility improvements or spending to bottom out in the near future. Schools are just going to spend on different things. The driving question at most programs right now is “how can we drive more revenue from our existing fans, corporate partners and real estate footprint?” … and the answer sometimes requires building more stuff.

Sure, I think that could happen. I’ve talked to some mid-major athletic directors and coaches who would explicitly prefer for that to happen (as a way for their schools to get some sort of long-term benefit for developing high school players who won’t stay), and I understand why lawyers, agents and reporters occasionally propose it.
I think there are two related challenges to implementing this system. One is the College Sports Commission. We’re seven months out from House, and nobody has gotten in trouble for breaking any of the rev-share or “third party NIL” rules. There have been guideline updates, and most everybody is making some sort of effort to at least partially comply, but there haven’t been any actual penalties.
Without some sort of regulatory system that is actually enforced, I don’t think a transfer fee system can ever actually work … since who will be in charge to actually make sure those fees are properly paid? Can state courts be trusted to enforce player contracts with schools? Can they enforce those contracts quickly enough? How will transfer fees be permitted to be used? Will they be taxable income?
Even if the CSC (or something else) gets patched up, I’m not certain a fee system can work at scale without either employment status or some sort of federal exemption that provides clarity.
But those are the same challenges to nearly every other sort of reform effort to player movement and compensation. I don’t think that’s unique to transfer fees.
A better way to trade Nvidia

Nvidia has already delivered a staggering 80% gain year-over-year, building a $4.35 trillion empire. But here’s the million-dollar question: Where does Nvidia go from here?
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Reader Sheep Launcher asks:

Under the pre-2020 rule set, I would typically tell people there were reasons why sleeping giants were sleeping … and it’s uncommon for them to wake up. Institutions that appeared to have favorable demographics or resources, upon further inspection, often didn’t. You will not convince me that Maryland football, for example, is just waiting to finally become an elite program, no matter how many good athletes play at DeMatha.
But in the post-NIL, post-portal and post-rev share world, perhaps previous assumptions are worth revisiting.
If we want to use Sheep Launcher’s definition (a school that is reporting a lot of revenue but not as much elite success), there might be a few candidates.
I pulled up the FY24 top programs in royalties, licensing, advertisement and sponsorships revenue from the Extra Points Library. This might be a more useful proxy for revenue generation than total revenue, since isolating sponsorship money removes stuff like student fees, institutional support and “just having a huge stadium” from the picture.
You can probably predict the top teams: Texas, Michigan, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Florida State, etc. Surprisingly high is Louisville (sixth!), Arizona State (15th) and Nebraska (17th). If you sort by ticket revenue, there are a few other programs surprisingly high, like Arkansas (5th), Colorado (17th), Louisville (20th).
If I had to pick a program that was underachieving relative to total earned athletic revenues over the past few years, my answer would probably be Texas A&M, Nebraska or Washington. If I had to pick a program I think could become a substantially more successful department in the future, just based on revenues right now … I’d go with Arizona State.
I’m open to other suggestions, though. Leave ’em in the comments..
Let’s get out of here on this one:

Boy, this is a tough one, because I don’t think most of the other great college football turnaround stories were that sudden.
Take Northwestern, for example. The football team was absolute garbage from the late 1960s to early 1990s. In 1995, it made the Rose Bowl under Gary Barnett … but that was in his fourth season. The Wildcats went 3-8, 2-9 and 3-7-1 before exploding to a 10-2 record.
The faster Northwestern turnaround story was back in the dang 1930s. When Pappy Waldorf took over for Dick Hanley in 1935, the Wildcats went 4-3-1. The next season? They went 7-1 and held the No. 1 spot in the AP poll for three weeks.
Kansas State stunk for a few years before Bill Snyder broke through in 1993. Frank Beamer was bad or average for several years at Virginia Tech before the Hokies won nine games in 1993. Barry Alvarez had three losing seasons before making the Rose Bowl at Wisconsin.
I guess the closest thing we’ve gotten in the modern era was at UCF. In George O’Leary’s last season in 2015, UCF went 0-12. Scott Frost went 6-7 in his first season, and then won a national title* with a 13-0 season in year two.
But even that isn’t what Indiana did. UCF only really sucked for one season, and it took more than one to turn the ship around. This Indiana football story, as far as I know, is in a class of its own.
NIL
College Football’s Expanded Playoff Works. Its Rhythm Doesn’t.

One of the most compelling sales pitches for the new(ish) expanded College Football Playoff, now in its second season of existence, was that it offered more teams chances to prove their worth on the field, rather than in computer formulae or the backrooms of the sport’s halls of power. And with apologies to notable snubs like Notre Dame, that’s mostly been the case. Eighth-seeded Ohio State fought through the strongest opponents of any modern champion last year, while next Monday’s championship game will pit undefeated Indiana — who might have a case as the greatest champ ever — against No. 10 seed Miami, who earned every bit of their way to play the title game at their home stadium.
The price for all of that, however, was adding to the disoriented and discontented feeling that generally pervades the sport right now.
Last week, The Athletic conducted a “vibe-check” poll of college football fans, asking how they felt about the sport. And the results were not exactly pretty. Out of more than 12,000 voters, roughly 56 percent said they did not like the state of college football at the moment because “it’s a mess” — more than two-and-a-half as many respondents who said they liked the sport because “the games are great”:
To be clear, I suspect the majority of that comes from the off-field chaos — from money-chasing coaches like Lane Kiffin to the sense that NIL and the transfer portal have fundamentally turned college football into a completely different sport than it used to be. (A viewpoint with which I sympathize, though the upside has been to allow non-traditional powers inject the sport with much-needed parity.)
But other changes have plunged the sport still deeper into the uncanny valley between its amateur past and an increasingly professionalized future. I wrote last month about the toll the new playoff was taking on the last remaining vestiges of the classic bowl system, and this time a year ago I noted how absurdly long and drawn-out bowl season was in the age of the expanded CFP:
Just like last season, this year’s title game will take place a full 38 days after the beginning of bowl season — and 32 days since the opening game of the playoff itself. For comparison’s sake, pre-playoff bowl season used to span an average of 19.1 days, and the old four-team playoff lasted an average of 10.9 days from beginning to end. Now we will have a gap longer than that simply between Miami and Indiana’s semifinal victories at the end of last week and the title game a week from tonight.
If that (and really the whole thing in general) feels weird and long, it might be because we’re still thinking of things in college terms — when, like everything else in the sport right now, we probably should be putting it in pro terms instead. Here’s a comparison between various different formats (plus March Madness, thrown in for fun) when it comes to their average days until the championship at each round of the playoffs:
The 12-team college playoff has taken slightly longer (31.8 days) to get to the championship than the 14-team NFL playoffs (29.2). But generally, the cadence matches pretty closely, right down to the double-digit day gap between the semifinals and final. (Conversely, it would be a lot to ask football players to turn around within a few days and play the championship, like they do in basketball’s Final Four.)
So, then, what makes the NFL’s postseason rhythm feel so much more normal than college football’s? Well, in addition to the novelty of the college playoff even having this many teams and rounds, the NFL gets to muscle college off of the premium days for playoff scheduling. As Club Sportico’s Eben Novy-Williams notes here, the odd timing of the CFP’s biggest games is mainly a byproduct of the NFL’s dominance of the January calendar.
While college football “owns” Saturdays in the fall, thanks to protections in the 1961 Sports Broadcasting Act, those safeguards expire in mid-December, freeing the NFL to schedule late regular season and playoff games on Saturdays and Sundays. And rather than going head-to-head with the NFL postseason, the College Football Playoff and its TV partners must push marquee games to weekday nights where they can be the biggest event on the schedule. In their current formats, nearly 92 percent of NFL playoff games have been on weekends, while only 9 percent of college playoff games can say the same. (Many more have been on random-feeling days like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and especially Friday.)
That tradeoff reflects a broader paradox for modern college sports: What makes college football special is its tradition and atmosphere — but what makes it valuable is television. And as the NFL continues to broaden its reach across more days of the year and college football continues to expand its playoff bracket, the latter increasingly finds itself chasing whatever visibility it can find, wherever it can be found. As a result, college football is now no longer the biggest thing on the calendar when its games matter the most.
That sensation, as much as any, is what fans can’t quite shake — even as the cream rises to the top more than ever and the football itself can be plenty exciting (when Indiana isn’t blowing the doors off everyone, that is). This no longer feels quite like the sport we used to organize our lives around, and the weirdo cadence of the playoff schedule is one of the most glaring signs of that shift. That doesn’t mean the expanded playoff was a mistake, but it does mean college football is asking us to recalibrate how we experience it: Following a game that looks like a pro league in more and more ways, even as it still demands to be loved like a campus tradition.
Filed under: College Football, Football
NIL
Demond Williams Jr. stays at Washington: Did revenue share contract work as intended?
It was quite a week for the Washington Huskies and quarterback Demond Williams Jr.
In the span of a few days, Williams went from signing a new contract to stay with Washington for the 2026 season to announcing his intention to enter the transfer portal. Two days later, he said he will, in fact, remain with the Huskies “after thoughtful reflection.”
A potential standoff between a star quarterback and a Big Ten program lasted 48 hours, but it still raised pertinent questions about the enforceability of revenue-sharing agreements that have become a predominant feature of major college football. Williams’ new contract with Washington will pay him roughly $4 million, a deal Washington made clear it had no intention of releasing Williams from.
It’s the latest saga in this new-ish era of college sports, one reshaped by legal battles and schools directly signing athletes to contracts. Universities are permitted to distribute up to $20.5 million in revenue sharing to athletes across all sports for the 2025-26 school year, a result of the multi-billion-dollar antitrust settlement agreed to by the NCAA and power conferences.
The disturbance at Washington was sorted out before things fully escalated, but it wasn’t the first contract dispute involving a college athlete, and it won’t be the last. Let’s examine the nuances of these revenue-sharing deals — and potential fallout when others inevitably go pear-shaped.
If a player breaches a revenue-sharing agreement… ?
The prevailing question for many in the industry is whether these revenue-sharing deals are actually worth the paper they’re printed on. If an athlete can break a deal and transfer to another school — presumably for more money or better circumstances — what purpose do these contracts actually serve?
“They’re not worthless,” said lawyer Cal Stein, who advises colleges and athletes on revenue sharing, “but they are very difficult to enforce.”
From a legal perspective, that difficulty is due to the blurred shadowland college football operates in, compensating athletes like pay-for-play employees without lawfully designating them as such. Revenue-sharing contracts are not employment contracts because college athletes are not employees — a designation the NCAA and member schools have resisted because of the added costs and responsibilities that would come with it. Think of these deals more like independent contractor agreements, a distinction that might not mean much to the average person, but is significant in terms of how contracts hold up under legal scrutiny.
“If push comes to shove and a judge takes a look at them, I think it will be interesting what that judge’s determination is,” said lawyer Darren Heitner, who specializes in sports law.
Last Thursday, after The Athletic spoke with him for this article, Heitner announced that he had been retained as legal counsel for Williams.
I have been retained as legal counsel for Demond Williams Jr. We have no public comment at this time. Updates will be provided as appropriate.
— Darren Heitner (@heitner) January 8, 2026
Many universities use a template contract crafted by the conference office, with each one adjusted according to state law and as each school sees fit. Commonly referred to as “licensing agreements” — because they license an athlete’s name, image and likeness rights to a university — it essentially allows a school to market the contracted athlete, often with exclusivity language.
These agreements increasingly feature early termination language as well, also known as buyout clauses, which stipulate dollars an athlete is responsible for redeeming to the university if they breach the contract before the end of the term. It’s usually a specified percentage or amount, such as the amount remaining on the deal once it is broken. This is similar to coaching buyouts, when a coach is hired away and owes money to the previous institution in the form of liquidated damages.
“The biggest difficulty is coming up with damages” — meaning a dollar amount — “that a judge or arbitrator will accept,” Stein said of revenue-sharing buyouts. “How can you quantify the financial harm a university will suffer based on a single player playing somewhere else? I could put on my creative lawyer hat and come up with some ideas, but it would be really hard to prove.”
Regardless, buyouts are becoming more common and can make for more efficient conflict resolution. Multiple power conference general managers tell The Athletic they have either signed players who had buyouts with their previous school or lost players with buyouts to other teams. Most are handled without public incident or additional legal action.
“It’s not prevalent, but it’s happening,” Heitner said. “Typically, there is a negotiation where a school starts at a specific number and then negotiates down, if the player has good counsel.”
One noteworthy wrinkle is that if a player with a buyout transfers to another school, the dollar amount of that buyout counts against the new school’s revenue-sharing cap for that fiscal year. That’s according to enforcement guidelines from the College Sports Commission, which oversees revenue sharing and settlement terms. Typically, a player’s deal with the new school will cover or account for the buyout in some fashion, but the new school is not required to directly pay the buyout fee to the previous school.
The Athletic reported last Friday that Brendan Sorsby, the top transfer quarterback of the current portal window, transferred to Texas Tech with one season remaining on a multi-year revenue-sharing agreement with Cincinnati that includes a $1 million buyout clause. It is not yet clear how Sorsby’s buyout will be resolved.
What happened with Williams and Washington?
We don’t know all the details of Williams’ initial desire to transfer, or of his swift change of heart to return to Washington. The specifics of his deal with the Huskies have not been made public, either. His agent publicly dropped him Thursday for “philosophical differences.” But we can glean that a potential buyout may have factored into the final decision.
Yahoo Sports reported Thursday evening that, if he left Washington, Williams would have owed the Huskies the value of his new contract (roughly $4 million), and if he transferred to a new school, that new school would have to count the $4 million against its own $20.5 million revenue-sharing cap for the 2025-26 fiscal year.
As The Athletic reported, this reflects the buyout language in the Big Ten template contract. Multiple versions of the template, reviewed by The Athletic, state that if a player intends to transfer before the end of an agreement, the athlete would owe the remaining amount left to be paid on the contract, unless the school negotiates a different buyout amount.
It’s possible a legal challenge would have delivered a different verdict or required a lesser buyout figure. But despite Williams retaining a lawyer, this situation is not headed to court. That itself could be a revealing outcome: In the end, the contract may have been strong enough to deter Williams from breaking it. The fact that he signed his deal less than a week prior probably bolstered that sentiment.
“If it’s a clear agreement that was negotiated by both parties, the damages are reasonable, those are generally enforceable,” said lawyer Paia LaPalombara, a former college athletics administrator who advises schools, conferences and athletes on revenue sharing. “A lot of it depends on how things are worded within the agreement.”
Do schools have recourse?
It’s common for revenue-sharing contracts to include language prohibiting a player from entering the transfer portal or another school from using their NIL rights, and there were reports that Williams’ deal with Washington includes similar stipulations. But those only apply if the contract is in good standing. No school will keep paying an athlete who doesn’t play for them, and there’s no contract that can prevent a player from quitting the team.
“You can’t force someone to stay where they are. There is a freedom aspect in an agreement that allows an individual to terminate that agreement,” said LaPalombara. “Can they terminate it for free? No, not necessarily. But you have the right to get out of an agreement. And if there is not language that allows for it, that can be taken to a court.”
If a school believes a contract has been breached and the agreement contains early-termination language, the simplest resolution is to pursue the buyout payment, whether in full or at a negotiated rate.
If a buyout isn’t feasible for whatever reason, a school can take a player to court or arbitration, which is a private form of mediation. Some schools and administrators, however, might be hesitant of how a legal battle with a college athlete will play publicly, even if there is confidence in the legal argument.
“College athletics is a very relational business,” said LaPalombara. “It’s less of a legal challenge and more of an optics challenge for some institutions.”
Though that dynamic could be shifting as well.
How existing disputes were handled
Late last year, the University of Georgia took former defensive end Damon Wilson II to court, with Georgia seeking arbitration and $390,000 in damages, claiming Wilson broke an agreement with Georgia’s NIL collective, a third-party group affiliated with the school, prior to the start of revenue sharing. The arbitration request was filed in the state of Georgia — contract law is traditionally a state matter — and Wilson, who transferred to Missouri for the 2025 season, later filed suit in the state of Missouri against Georgia’s athletic association, seeking his own damages. It’s believed to be the first time a player and school have taken each other to court over an NIL dispute, and both cases are ongoing. Wilson recently re-entered the portal.
Last winter, then-Wisconsin defensive back and South Florida native Xavier Lucas attempted to enter the transfer portal. At the time, Wisconsin claimed that Lucas had a “binding agreement” with the university. The university, with the support of the Big Ten, refused to enter Lucas into the portal as a result, even though it could violate NCAA transfer bylaws.
Lucas later un-enrolled as a student from Wisconsin and enrolled at Miami, where he is playing football for a team that plays for the national title next week. There were no NCAA or eligibility rules preventing Lucas from transferring without utilizing the portal.
“There is nothing improper about a student un-enrolling from one school and enrolling at another,” said Heitner, who represented Lucas. “My inclination is that no judge is going to [prohibit] an athlete from changing schools.”
In June, the University of Wisconsin sued the University of Miami for tortious interference, claiming Miami intentionally interfered with a contract between Wisconsin and Lucas. That case is also ongoing.
The NCAA has its own rules against tampering, but it’s so rampant in college sports that it’s become almost impossible for the NCAA to penalize it. But if a school believes that another school illegally tampered with one of its athletes in an attempt to break a revenue-sharing contract — and the first school believes it can prove that in court — it could attempt the tortious interference route.
What’s next?
Was the potential standoff at Washington a harbinger or an outlier?
It might be the shortest contract dispute we ever see, but the turbulence with Williams could be an indicator of future conflicts. Few would argue that this era of revenue sharing and NIL has done much to stabilize college sports, even if most agree that athletes deserve to be compensated.
But in the meantime, schools and conferences will continue to fortify the language in revenue-sharing contracts, and athletes with the most leverage — or legal horsepower — will continue to test those limits. Until the next saga arrives.
NIL
Ty Simpson reportedly receiving NIL offers to stay in college
Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson (15) looks to pass the ball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images
Ty Simpson is receiving NIL offers to stay in college and transfer to another program ahead of Wednesday’s deadline to declare for the NFL Draft, according to AL.com.
Simpson has reportedly been offered NIL deals worth $4 million and higher with one deal having a chance to be worth $6.5 million, but he has already announced his intentions to enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

The Tennessee native started at quarterback for the Tide in 2025 after waiting three years for an opportunity to earn the role. He lead the Crimson Tide to the second round of the College Football Playoff in his first year as a starter before having to leave the Rose Bowl with an injury.
Simpson finished his first year as the Tide’s starting quarterback with 3,567 passing yards and 28 passing touchdowns.
Carson Beck was the latest high-profile college quarterback to back out of plans to enter the NFL Draft and take his talents to another school with a huge NIL Deal.
No signs point to Simpson doing the same at the moment.
NIL
$2 million QB could redshirt next college football season amid transfer portal entry
Under a week remains in the window for college football players to enter the NCAA transfer portal in the 2026 offseason. The portal officially opened on Jan. 2 and will remain open until Friday.
Over 4,000 players at all levels of college football have decided to enter the transfer portal in the last month. Some of the most notable entries into the portal include Power Four quarterbacks seeking better situations at their next school.
One of the first quarterbacks to enter the NCAA transfer portal in the offseason was former Nebraska signal-caller Dylan Raiola. He will have two seasons of eligibility remaining at his second school.
The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder was recruited to Nebraska by Matt Rhule as a five-star prospect in the Cornhuskers’ 2024 signing class. He passed for 2,819 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and led Nebraska to its first bowl game in eight seasons and first bowl victory since its win over UCLA in the 2015 Foster Farms Bowl.
Raiola broke his fibula against USC, limiting his season to just nine games. He passed for 2,000 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in his last year with Nebraska. Raiola announced his intent to enter the transfer portal on Dec. 15, 2025.
While many quarterbacks who entered the NCAA transfer portal were either clearly linked to another Power Five program or had already committed to one, Raiola’s portal journey has been much quieter despite his early entry. Some of the prospects for Raiola in 2026 are less conventional than those of most quarterbacks who enter the transfer portal.

Pete Nakos of On3 reported that one possible option for Raiola in 2026 would be to transfer to Oregon and that if Dante Moore returned to the Ducks, Raiola would still transfer there and use a redshirt.
“Sources have indicated that Raiola is in play to join the Oregon roster regardless of Dante Moore’s NFL draft decision,” Nakos said. “If Moore decided to return to school, Raiola could redshirt a season and be in line to start in 2027.”
Moore is currently projecting as the second best quarterback in the 2026 NFL draft behind Fernando Mendoza of Indiana. As it relates to Raiola, Moore also transferred to Oregon and redshirted a season while Dillon Gabriel started for the Ducks in 2024.
If Moore stays at Oregon and Raiola transfers there, it would resemble that of a transfer prior to the portal’s inception. College athletes used to be required to sit out one full season after transferring from one school to another, but that requirement ended after the portal’s launch.
NIL
Report: Ty Simpson drawing top-dollar NIL offers to transfer after NFL Draft declaration
Is Ty Simpson this year’s Carson Beck? That’s a question the talented Alabama junior quarterback could be entertaining as multiple QB-needy programs reportedly try to sway him to transfer rather than jump to the NFL.
Beck famously declared for the 2025 NFL Draft last January before reversing course days later and transferring to Miami, where he’s led the 10th-ranked Hurricanes to the 2026 College Football Playoff national championship game Dec. 19 against No. 1 Indiana.
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Simpson formally announced his intentions to enter the 2026 NFL Draft last Wednesday. But that move may be on hold after the Crimson Tide’s 2025 starter — through third-parties — has reportedly received high-dollar NIL offers from other Power Four programs, including one particular deal that could total as much as $6.5 million, according to AL.com. That reportedly includes three other SEC programs that are offering at least $4 million for Simpson’s services in 2026, per AL.com.
Prior to his draft declaration last week, On3 insider Pete Nakos reported Simpson was evaluating all his options regarding his future per his agent, Peter Webb of QB Reps. That potentially included returning to Alabama, declaring for the NFL Draft, or entering the NCAA Transfer Portal.
“No decisions have been made about Ty declaring for the draft at this point, and he is still evaluating everything with his family and close advisors,” Webb told Nakos.
Simpson has long been considered a potential first-round lock, and is currently projected to be the third quarterback off the board according to ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr., behind only Indiana‘s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore, neither of whom have declared for the draft yet.
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Despite leaving Alabama’s 38-3 quarterfinal loss to Indiana early with a cracked rib, Simpson capped a strong redshirt junior season in Tuscaloosa by throwing for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns to just five interceptions in his first year as the Tide’s QB1. That included powering Alabama to an 11-4 record and a first-round victory over Oklahoma in the 2025 College Football Playoffs.
This news about Simpson comes two days after his two backups — redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and five-star true freshman Keelon Russell — both negotiated new deals with Alabama’s team collective, Yea Alabama, to return for the 2026 season.
The 6-foot-6 and 235-pound Mack saw the first significant action of his Crimson Tide career on New Year’s Eve when he replaced an injured Simpson in the second half of a 38-3 loss to No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl national quarterfinal.
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