NIL's impact on the trading card industry

The rise of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL), now in its fourth year of existence, has introduced a variety of new opportunities and complexities into college sports. It’s also reshaping the trading card industry in ways that are just beginning to unfold. 

NIL policies gained prominence once the NCAA allowed athletes to monetize their rights and profit from their brand before turning pro. The shift started on July 1, 2021 when athletes began earning money through endorsements, sponsorships, social media posts, appearances, autograph signings, and other potentially lucrative ventures. 

Although cards of college athletes are nothing new, the trading card industry has traditionally driven collectors to professional sports, with a premium put on the first card depicting them in a pro uniform. But the competition in securing the licenses for professional sports leagues has divided the playing field of participants. The top manufacturers — Topps, Panini and Upper Deck — have stood out in part by having the licenses to produce cards for the top leagues and players associations across major sports. That licensing permits the companies to print cards with all the team names and logos, as well as player names and images. 

A variety of other manufacturers exist, such as Onyx, Leaf, Pulse, and many more, but they largely produce cards that aren’t licensed by the top leagues. As a result, these companies are now going to different lengths to secure deals with players and their representatives before they reach the pro level. That’s where NIL has had a significant impact, both for individual athletes and the trading card industry as a whole, but it hasn’t come without its own set of challenges.

The factors driving NIL trading card deals

“There is nothing more Name, Image, and Likeness than a trading card,” said Jason Howarth, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Athlete Relations at Panini America. “Trading cards are direct representations of an athlete’s brand, making them natural components of the NIL ecosystem.” 

In August, Panini America launched their Panini College platform for all participating athletes at their partner universities (Texas, Nebraska and Ohio State, with more on the way) to have their own trading card, starting with football and volleyball. Athletes are paid based on card sales. In the past this likely would have only been a viable proposition for a select few athletes in a relatively small number of sports and programs, but social media has allowed a wider range of athletes to build their own brands, particularly in women’s sports. Some companies see untapped potential in college soccer and volleyball, in particular. 

LSU gymnast Livvy Dunne (5.4 million Instagram followers) has been able to secure deals with Leaf and Fanatics because of her massive following. Nebraska volleyball standout Lexi Rodriguez (133,000 Instagram followers and 166,000 TikTok followers) was Panini’s first female NIL athlete. Panini also recently signed UConn guard Paige Bueckers, projected first pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, to an exclusive, multi-year agreement. National champion softball player Jordy Bahl (104,000 Instagram followers) will be included in Upper Deck’s trading card set. 

Ben Chase, NIL Director at the University of Florida, believes trading card NIL deals “impact the most athletes at scale.”

“While royalties aren’t that great for the non-star athletes, the coolness of having a card for an athlete is,” Chase said. 

And for collectors, there’s the element of the unknown as far as where a college athlete’s journey might eventually lead. “Ninety-nine percent of these athletes do not go pro, but I could be holding the card of the next CEO of Bank of America or next coach of the New England Patriots,” Chase added. “To me, that’s the value.” 

NIL trading card opportunities are also allowing high school athletes to secure deals even before stepping onto college campuses. Panini America recently inked Vernell Brown III, a University of Florida commit, to be featured on trading cards before he enrolled. IMG Academy’s Donovan Olugbode, a Mizzou commit, locked in a multi-year exclusive with Leaf Trading Cards. 

While the market is still in its early stages, some structural elements are taking shape. Lance Fischer, President of Onyx, says his company initiates its process by identifying athletes with marketable appeal, which might include the market in which they’ll be playing or their social media following. After this step, there is a balancing between the players desired and those offered by agents and collectives to include in their checklists. 

Challenges and hurdles of the NIL trading card market

“The trading card market wasn’t yet prepared for NIL,”  said Howarth. “In 2021, (when) NIL came into play, guardrails were not yet in place, and we dipped toes in the water with cards. The first year was about navigation, setting up the business, then (the) transfer portal threw an obstacle in the mix (with sudden uniform/school changes), and it was all about creating products around that.” 

Due to that transfer portal activity, companies were forced to tackle these logistics around rapidly changing rosters. Designing, printing and shipping cards can take many months — labor that can be thrown into disarray by a sudden transfer.  

NIL trading card negotiations often involve agents requesting photo approval or design input on behalf of the athletes. When photos are hard to obtain, companies get creative, even sending photographers to an athlete’s practice, like Onyx did when images of Shedeur Sanders during his time at Jackson State were unavailable. 

Autographs have become a coveted staple of the card industry, with on-card autographs generally viewed as more desirable because collectors know the athlete handled or held the card, as opposed to them signing a sticker that was later affixed to the card. Athletes don’t always prioritize card signings, leading companies to set deadlines ahead of their printing mandates to ensure they return signed cards or risk losing their place on future checklists. 

State-specific NIL rules also complicate the landscape, affecting the eligibility of high school athletes entering trading card deals. Cory Hollingsworth of Pulse Trading Cards said he was recently pitched a 14-year-old football player, underscoring NIL’s far-reaching implications.

“This is still evolving and there needs to be some guardrails on this thing,” Fischer notes. 

Potential for rising values? 

Trading cards are no longer solely collectibles, they now attract investors, with some aiming for quick flips and others making longer-term bets on a player’s chances at superstardom. College cards present another avenue for both collectors and investors — even unlicensed products, as their scarcity can drive demand. In Sanders’ case, his first card became a collector’s item due to the market’s limited supply of them. His 2021 Onyx Vintage College Football base card is selling for $20+ ungraded (a pretty tidy sum for an unlicensed college card) and autographed versions are selling for $100-$500+ for the more limited variations.  

As explained by YouTuber Simon466cards, NIL allows for a more extended timeline that could help bring value to college cards. Before NIL, there was generally a very tight window between when cards of a player in their college uniform and in their pro uniform were released since manufacturers couldn’t sign deals with players until after they turned pro or the NCAA eligibility ended. Collectors naturally gravitated toward the pro uniform cards in that situation, as they were more relevant going forward. But now that a player’s first college card can be produced well before their first pro card, there’s more time for those college cards to establish a market and accumulate value, as we’ve seen with Caitlin Clark’s first college cards. 

This shift enables a “prospecting” culture (where collectors/investors buy cards of players they think will develop into future stars with rising values) within college sports. Previously, this only really existed in baseball, where a player’s first cards after getting drafted would come out well before they could make an MLB debut.

“Consumers always want the best players — prospecting now shifts to NIL for basketball and football,” Howarth said. “Investors will hedge the bets on a freshman wide receiver because of the increased runway of time to see the player evolve in football.” 

Athletes are also using trading card deals as platforms for their own philanthropy. University of Florida quarterback DJ Lagway and University of Miami quarterback Cam Ward worked with Leaf to raise funds for hurricane relief, while Texas quarterback Arch Manning’s first Panini card was auctioned to benefit Ronald McDonald House. Such initiatives showcase NIL’s potential for social impact, demonstrating how athletes can leverage their brand beyond purely commercial interests. 

The future of NIL trading cards

Going forward, Fischer envisions a more structured environment for NIL trading cards. He suggests that an industry summit for athletes, agents, collectives, athletic departments, and brands might set needed standards and direction. 

Howarth adds, “Athletes and agents need to understand the contract they sign. Education is necessary for the athlete and parent to understand the role in that relationship.”

Then there are the other ways commercial interests can find their way into the equation. There’s the prospect of partnerships with entities like Learfield, a collegiate sports marketing company with the rights to over 200 NCAA member institutions, to create branded trading card sets, potentially featuring sponsor logos to reduce costs for fans. As the trading card industry adapts to NIL, it may one day include a card as unique as a 1/1 Raising Cane’s LSU Gold Caniac Refractor.

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(Photo: Panini)