College football is in its semi-pro era, reshaping the NFL Draft calculus as quarterbacks weigh guaranteed NIL money against rookie contracts.

After four years at Georgia, quarterback Carson Beck declared for the NFL Draft on Dec. 28, 2024, slated to make millions as a mid-round pick. But instead of taking that route, Beck entered the transfer portal on Jan. 9 and inked a $4 million deal to play out his final season of college eligibility at Miami, where he succeeded Heisman Trophy winner and eventual top pick Cam Ward. Now, Beck will play next week for a national championship as he’s still in line to make good NFL money at age 23, but now with a guaranteed $4 million in his pocket.

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The passing of the House Settlement and the introduction of revenue sharing in Division I athletics have only enhanced this trend and the appeal of college football quarterbacks staying in school an extra year rather than try their luck in the NFL Draft. Alabama‘s Ty Simpson may be the perfect example of that. Despite declaring for the NFL Draft, at least three SEC teams reportedly have interest, with another school offering him up to $6.5 million to stay in college next season and enter the transfer portal prior to Friday’s deadline.

Despite ESPN grading Simpson as a late first-round or early second-round pick, $6.5 million is extremely appealing. NFL quarterback Tyler Shough, who the New Orleans Saints selected 40th overall in last year’s draft, got a four-year, $10.8 million contract, including a $4.5 million signing bonus. We seem to be approaching the point that, unless you’re guaranteed to be drafted in the first round, it might pay to stay in school an extra year, essentially making major college football a semi-pro outfit right now.

College basketball has experiencing a similar trend for years now. With the introduction of NIL, NCAA hoops stars like Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, and North Carolina’s Armando Bacot made far more money by staying in school than they would have as an NBA second-round pick or G-Leaguer. Bacot signed a deal worth more than $1 million to play this year in Turkey with Fenerbahce, Timme is on a two-way contract with the Los Angeles Lakers worth just over $500,000, and Tsiebwe has a similar arrangement with the Utah Jazz.

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Were they still college eligible, they would’ve made more money. It’s why, as we reported, more EuroLeague-caliber talent are electing to come from overseas to college basketball teams. It’s why some players with G-League experience who are still college eligible are electing to go back to school. The money right now is just better.

Right now, schools can directly spend up to $20.5 million on their student-athletes, with the vast majority of that total allocated to football, their largest revenue-generating sport. But that $20.5 million number is expected to rise, and with it the amount that teams will likely offer to quarterbacks like Simpson and new Texas Tech starter Brendan Sorsby, whose record-breaking NIL deal we discussed last week. How long will it take until quarterbacks can make more money in college than they would as first-round NFL Draft picks?

Jaxson Dart, the 25th overall pick last year from Ole Miss, earned a signing bonus of just under $9 million as part of a four-year rookie contract worth just under $17 million. We may get to a point where these QBs get a larger guarantee to stay in school than a first-rounder would receive as a signing bonus, making it worth risking an injury in college that could wipe out potential future NFL earnings. It will take longer for players at other positions like running back and wide receiver, where second-round picks like Houston Texans wideout Jayden Higgins and Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins still got roughly $5 million to sign, still way more than they’d earn for a year in college.

Yet the fact that we’re even having this conversation at all indicates the direction college football is going in. It’s how wide receiver Cam Coleman, who doesn’t turn 20 until August, can leave Auburn for a transfer portal NIL deal at Texas of at least $2 million. We’re talking free agency for hundreds of college kids every year to make upwards of seven figures at their new destinations. If that’s not at least semi-professional sports, I’m not sure what is.

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Now, all we can do is wait and see how far things go before the next wave of substantial changes hits college football in this ever-changing landscape that made it possible for Beck to accept, and Simpson to consider, an offer that made it more financially prudent to keep the NFL waiting for one more year.

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The College Sports Commission has rejected nearly $15 million in name, image and likeness agreements since it started evaluating them over the summer, representing more than 10% of the value of all the deals it has analyzed and closed.

The CSC released its latest statistics Monday, saying it did not clear 524 deals worth $14.94 million, while clearing 17,321 worth $127.21 million. All the data was current as of Jan. 1.

The numbers came against the backdrop of a “reminder” memo the commission sent to athletic directors last week, citing “serious concerns” about contracts being offered to athletes before they had been cleared through the commission’s NIL Go platform.

The CSC is in charge of evaluating all deals worth more than $600 that are offered by third-party businesses that are often affiliated with the schools recruiting the players.

“Without prejudging any particular deal, the CSC has serious concerns about some of the deal terms being contemplated and the consequences of those deals for the parties involved,” the Friday night memo said.

The CSC said primary reasons for deals not being cleared were that they lacked a valid business purpose; they didn’t directly activate a player’s NIL rights, instead “warehousing” them for future use; and that players were being paid at levels that weren’t “commensurate with similarly situated individuals.”

The memo reminded ADs that signing players to deals that hadn’t been cleared by the CSC left the players “vulnerable to deals not being cleared, promises not being able to be kept, and eligibility being placed at risk.”

Other statistics from the latest report:

There were 10 deals in arbitration as of Dec. 31, eight of which have since been withdrawn. All involved a resolved administrative issue at one school not named by the CSC.

• 52% of deals submitted to NIL Go were resolved within 24 hours.

• 73% of deals reached resolution within seven days following submission of all required information.

• 56% of the 10,848 athletes who have at least one cleared deal play football or men’s basketball.

As the 2025 college football season comes to a close, programs across the country are in an all-out arms race to prepare to make title runs for next season.

While just about every program in college football is spending money on its roster, there are only a select few programs that are able to outspend anyone in their path. One of those programs is the Texas Longhorns, who, according to On3’s Rusty Mansell, are set to spend an unheard-of amount for next season.

Mansell, who runs On3’s DawgsHQ, revealed in a social media post on X that just one season after starting the year as the No. 1 team in college football and finishing with a 10-4 record, the Longhorns are expected to field a roster worth $40 million.

“Texas will have the first 40 million dollar roster, no doubt in my mind they are close to that in real salary,” wrote Mansell. “This is an ALL IN season for Sark, literally.”

The Longhorns have made notable transfer portal additions, such as the No. 1 wide receiver in Cam Coleman, No. 3 running back Hollywood Smothers and No. 1 linebacker Rasheem Biles. In addition to the top transfers joining the fold, the Longhorns also brought in the No. 10 recruiting class, which features three five-star recruits.

The roster, which is centered on former No. 1 overall recruit and nephew of NFL greats Peyton and Eli Manning, Arch Manning, is built to contend for a title. As Mansell alluded to, the Longhorns are fully equipped to contend for a championship, which means anything short of that would be a disappointment.

While Texas is reportedly set to become the first $40 million roster in college football, it isn’t the only program in college football spending the big bucks. It’s worth noting that there is a revenue-sharing cap of $20.5 million, but there isn’t necessarily a way to enforce it yet.

Other major NIL spenders in the college football transfer portal

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Thanks to the financial backing of a former player-turned-oil tycoon in Cody Campbell, the Red Raiders assembled a roster that led to their first-ever Big 12 Championship in program history. They were also able to make the program’s first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. In a report by ESPN, it was revealed that Texas Tech spent $7 million alone on the defensive line, which led by David Bailey’s 14.5 sacks, was one of the most feared in the country.

The Red Raiders lost in the quarterfinal round of the College Football Playoff to Oregon in a lopsided 23-0 loss, prompting many to say the Red Raiders need to spend big at quarterback to take the next step. Well, they did just that. Headlining their transfer class, which On3 ranks as its No. 2 portal class, is Cincinnati quarterback transfer, Brendan Sorsby, who reportedly cost them $5 million.

On3 reported that they spent around $28 million for this past season, and it appears they will spend as much, if not more, in 2026.

Ohio State Buckeyes

The Ohio State Buckeyes spent a reported $20 million to win their 2024 title, and while they aren’t going crazy this transfer portal cycle, they very well could be spending most of their money on roster retention and high school recruits. The Buckeyes have brought in just six transfers, but they did land the No. 1 wide receiver recruit in Chris Henry Jr.

According to Rivals, Ohio State’s 28-man recruiting class has an average NIL Valuation of $136,000. In addition to the costly new faces, they likely also had to restructure deals for notable players such as quarterback Julian Sayin and star wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.

Oregon Ducks

Since players were allowed to profit from their NIL, the Oregon Ducks have been among the biggest players in this category. The program’s connection with Nike co-founder Phil Knight has certainly not gone unnoticed by top recruits, as Rivals reported that their No. 3 recruiting class, which features five five-star recruits, has the highest average NIL at $236,000.

If the Ducks haven’t hit that $40 million threshold yet, they will soon. Front Office Sports reported that their 2024 roster cost $23 million, while former Oklahoma State head coach Mike Gundy revealed that their 2025 roster cost $40 million before the Ducks beat his Cowboys 69-3.

Other Notable Big-Spending Programs:

The College Sports Commission has rejected nearly $15 million in name, image, likeness agreements since it started evaluating them over the summer, representing more than 10% of the value of all the deals it has analyzed and closed.

The CSC released its latest statistics Monday, saying it did not clear 524 deals worth $14.94 million, while clearing 17,321 worth $127.21 million. All the data was current as of Jan. 1.

The numbers came against the backdrop of a “reminder” memo the commission sent to athletic directors last week, citing “serious concerns” about contracts being offered to athletes before they had been cleared through the commission’s NIL Go platform.

The CSC is in charge of evaluating all deals worth more than $600 that are offered by third-party businesses that are often affiliated with the schools recruiting the players.

“Without prejudging any particular deal, the CSC has serious concerns about some of the deal terms being contemplated and the consequences of those deals for the parties involved,” the Friday night memo said.

The CSC said primary reasons for deals not being cleared were that they lacked a valid business purpose; they didn’t directly activate a player’s NIL rights, instead “warehousing” them for future use; and that players were being paid at levels that weren’t “commensurate with similarly situated individuals.”

The memo reminded ADs that signing players to deals that hadn’t been cleared by the CSC left the players “vulnerable to deals not being cleared, promises not being able to be kept, and eligibility being placed at risk.”

Other statistics from the latest report:

—There were 10 deals in arbitration as of Dec. 31, eight of which have since been withdrawn. All involved a resolved administrative issue at one school not named by the CSC.

—52% of deals submitted to NIL Go were resolved within 24 hours.

– 73% of deals reached resolution within seven days following submission of all required information.

–56% of the 10,848 athletes who have at least one cleared deal play football or men’s basketball.

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