The NASCAR Cup Series is down to one: One race left before the playoffs. One race left for a driver without a playoff berth to punch a ticket to the next round. One race left for the two drivers hovering at the cut line to keep themselves above water. And the backdrop for it all is, of course, one of NASCAR’s most chaotic tracks: Daytona. It’s time for NASCAR’s Coke Zero Sugar 400.
Ahead of the race, we’re bringing our questions about strategy, predictions, long shots and more to our motorsports experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi.
Take it away, guys!
Race winner odds for NASCAR’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona
Q&A for NASCAR at Daytona
The final race before the playoffs! Let’s start today with our long-shot question: Name a few drivers most likely to win Saturday and crash the playoff party.
Jeff: Hoo boy. Well, Harrison Burton won his way into the playoffs last year with +7000 odds, so there’s really no long shot too long this week. If a huge wreck takes out enough drivers or everything unfolds the right way at the right time, who is to say Cody Ware (+20000) can’t win? Seriously, though, let’s talk about three realistic upsets (+5000 or higher) and rank them in order: Todd Gilliland at +5000, Riley Herbst at +8000, Justin Haley at +6000. Gilliland and Haley are great superspeedway racers, which is why I put them in the top three, but don’t forget Herbst had a very good Daytona 500 until he was knocked out of the pack on the white flag lap (but saved it). Furthermore, I could see a situation where he’s running toward the front late in the race and has help from Toyota teammates like Bubba Wallace and Denny Hamlin, who want to see the 23XI Racing driver make the playoffs. But you could genuinely make the case for 30 different drivers to win this race, and it would be hard to argue with it.
Jordan: Just about every driver in the field could win Saturday night. That’s part of the charm of holding the regular-season finale on a track whose characteristics effectively level the playing field. All one has to do is look back to last year when Burton shocked everyone by pulling off a Cinderella victory that punched his playoff ticket. The expectation is that a similar scenario will unfold, with a viable case for several drivers who wouldn’t be considered contenders most other weeks.
Jeff stole my second question in his Richmond recap: “If you were [Tyler] Reddick’s team, what strategy would you use at Daytona?” I’ll ask that for the two guys hovering on the cut line: Reddick and Alex Bowman.
Jeff: So here’s the situation: Reddick and Bowman both make the playoffs if there’s no new winner from below the cutoff line. If there IS a new winner, the race for the final spot on points comes down to Reddick and Bowman — and Reddick currently has a 29-point lead. That means Reddick has to finish ninth or better (without accounting for any stage points). So if you’re Bowman, you must go for max stage points and race hard the entire time to try and put pressure on Reddick; if you get taken out in the Big One, just hope there’s no new winner. If you’re Reddick, the playbook is open to taking it easy for the first two stages, seeing how many stage points Bowman gets and trying to avoid a wreck in the meantime. After Stage 2, Reddick can adjust his strategy based on how many stage points Bowman has: If Bowman gets, say, 15 stage points, that moves Reddick’s clinch scenario down to getting a top-15. Not bad at all. So really, it’s fine if Reddick plays it conservatively and does wreck-avoidance while the pressure is on Bowman.
Jordan: Reddick is in a position where he can let the race unfold through the first two stages, then assess how he needs to approach the final stage. If Bowman has chipped into Reddick’s points advantage by earning stage points, Reddick knows he can’t lie back with the intent of avoiding a disastrous finish. But if Bowman hasn’t whittled down the deficit — or has even crashed out — Reddick can take it easy knowing he’s effectively locked up a playoff spot. Reacting to the competition is not how teams prefer to set their strategy, but in this instance, it’s the most sensible way to approach the race. As for Bowman, getting stage points should be his goal. Doing so puts more pressure on Reddick, and if luck goes Bowman’s way, it may result in him jumping Reddick for the final transfer position should someone outside the playoffs win. The cat-and-mouse game between the two teams is going to be fascinating to watch.
William Byron just clinched the regular-season championship and says that his team is firing on all cylinders heading into the playoffs. How much does late-season momentum carry over into the playoffs, in your opinion?
Jeff: I don’t think it does, honestly. This format is intentionally a momentum-killer; just look at Christopher Bell last season, who had a sensational playoffs only to be knocked out before the Championship 4. What really matters is which tracks are in which round and how good that team is at those places. I’m worried about all Hendrick Motorsports cars this year, because they haven’t been great at the flatter tracks like Gateway, New Hampshire, Martinsville and Phoenix — which could very well determine the title. So, although Byron has been the fastest overall car this season (despite a midsummer slump in results), there’s really no momentum when you look at the tracks ahead.
Jordan: Momentum can often be overrated. Yes, the confidence that stems from running well can buoy a team — especially if they find themselves needing to overcome adversity. But said momentum can also evaporate quickly through no fault of their own. The ability to run well consistently is what really matters, combined with how the playoff schedule plays to a team’s strengths and weaknesses. If a team can check these two boxes, they’re almost assuredly going to be a tough out, and you can go ahead and pencil them into the semifinal round. Look at recent championships and how most eventual champions have successfully implemented this formula.
Let’s swing over to the Truck Series for a sec, because their playoff field is already set. Corey Heim is way ahead of the field in points and laps led all season. What are the chances he doesn’t make the Championship 4? (A scenario which Jeff tweeted would lead to dire consequences online.) NOOB question of the week: Is the Truck Series not competitive enough, or is Heim something special?
Jeff: To answer your latter question, it’s both. Heim is a “Sunday driver” destined for the Cup Series and is driving for the best team in the Truck Series, but it’s also not that competitive of a field overall. Get this: Heim has led 39.4 percent of all the laps in the entire Truck Series season by himself. That is just an astoundingly dominant year. He should have more wins than he does (seven). But although he starts with a massive advantage in playoff points, there’s no sure thing in this wild format. Given the last three races before the championship are the Charlotte Roval, Talladega and Martinsville — three races with potential for chaotic outcomes — there’s an actual path for Heim to miss the title race. If that happens, it would pretty much doom the current format (in my opinion, at least).
Jordan: The semifinal round is absolutely bonkers, where each track is the NASCAR equivalent of a barroom fight: There will assuredly be hurt feelings, frayed tempers and a likely contender or two facing a surprising elimination. It’s going to be wild. So while Heim should seemingly be a virtual lock to make the Championship 4 with all the bonus points he’s accrued, there are no guarantees he will. And should this occur, get the popcorn ready, as the outrage will be epic.
Alright, let’s do it: Who is your favorite to win the Cup Series race at Daytona?
Jeff: Trying to pick a favorite is sort of throwing your money down the drain for this race, but I’ll go out on a limb and pick Daniel Suarez at +4000. My reasons are this: He’s a good superspeedway racer, his Trackhouse Racing teammates are already in the playoffs (giving them incentive to work with him and get him into the field for the good of the company) and Chevrolets are under strict orders not to push other manufacturers to a victory, which could help Suarez’s cause if he’s up front late in the race. I could also make this argument for a half-dozen other drivers in his same situation, but this whole race is a roll of the dice, so why not?
Jordan: Yes, luck factors heavily into who wins a superspeedway race. But this masks the fact that there is a skill to running, and winning, on such tracks and why there are a handful of drivers who tend to excel anytime NASCAR visits Talladega or Daytona. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is one of these drivers, evident by all four of his career wins coming on superspeedways — including one apiece each of the past two years. Stenhouse gets career win No. 5 Saturday night, punching his unlikely ticket to the playoffs.
How to watch NASCAR this weekend
- Race: Coke Zero Sugar 400
- Track: Daytona International Speedway — Daytona Beach, Fla.
- Time: Saturday, Aug. 23, 7:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: NBC and HBO Max
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(Photo of Tyler Reddick: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)
