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AP Poll Prediction

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AP Poll Prediction

The college football season is well and truly underway. With a full slate of games this weekend and the bulk of them having already taken place, On3 stops to project the updated AP Top 25 rankings.

Our projections are based on results posted over the weekend, as well as historical moves in the AP Poll. For games that are not yet completed, we are waiting to see the results before updating accordingly.

This post will be updated following the conclusion of games on Sunday, as well as the conclusion of games on Monday. But for now, let’s dig into the updated projection of the Top 25.

RESULT: 14-7 win vs. Texas
It wasn’t always the cleanest game as some key early drops threw off the team’s offensive rhythm. But quarterback Julian Sayin mostly looked the part in leading the defending national champs to a 14-7 win over Texas.

The defense really put the clamps down on opposing quarterback Arch Manning, who was limited to just 5-of-10 passing for 26 yards in the first half. A few clutch stops in the red zone by the defense were the difference in the game.

Penn State running back Nick Singleton
Penn State running back Nick Singleton (Photo Credit: Matthew O’Haren | Imagn Images)

RESULT: 46-11 win vs. Nevada
Penn State put together a pretty ho-hum win over Nevada in the season opener. The outcome was never really in doubt, as you’d expect in a matchup between programs of fairly different calibers.

Quarterback Drew Allar had a routine 22-of-26 day passing, reaching 217 yards and a touchdown. The Nittany Lions spread the love on the ground, rushing for four touchdowns with no one seeing more than eight carries on the afternoon.

RESULT: 17-10 win at Clemson
LSU went on the road for one of the marquee matchups of Week 1. And the Tigers mostly dominated their like-named counterpart for most of the evening. It was the defense that made the difference.

Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik was limited to 19-of-38 passing for 230 yards. He did not throw a touchdown and was picked off once. It was a huge statement win for LSU, which vaults forward in the projected Top 25 rankings.

RESULT: 45-7 win vs. Marshall
It was an easy season opener for Georgia, which opened up a 24-0 lead by halftime and pretty much coasted throughout. Quarterback Gunner Stockton was heavily involved as a runner, leading the team with 73 yards and two touchdowns.

He was also relatively on point as a passer, throwing for 190 yards and another two scores. Georgia will get another tune-up with Austin Peay before opening conference play against a Top 25 Tennessee team.

Arch Manning
Arch Manning (Will Gallagher/Inside Texas)

RESULT: 14-7 loss at Ohio State
It’s never easy going on the road to face a blueblood, and Texas looked out of sorts offensively for most of the first half. It was a competitive game, but a few key decisions might have proven costly in the loss.

Ohio State came up with stops in the red zone when it needed to, including in the low red zone. Texas still has everything in front of it, as a one-score loss on the road to a top team won’t significantly damage the resume.

RESULT: 27-24 win vs. Notre Dame
Miami looked to be cruising past Notre Dame after building a 14-point lead, but a conservative approach nearly came back to haunt the Hurricanes. Luckily, the ‘Canes made the plays they needed to, which included some clutch field goal kicking.

The win gives Miami a marquee Top 25 win early in the season and something to build around. The road will remain tough, with Florida looming in three weeks time.

RESULT: 59-13 win vs. Montana State
Oregon absolutely steamrolled Montana State from the opening whistle. The run game was on point, racking up 253 yards and five touchdowns as 12 different players logged a carry in the contest.

Quarterback Dante Moore also settled in nicely, going 18-of-23 passing for 213 yards and three touchdowns. He did not throw an interception. Next up is Oklahoma State, a slightly stiffer test for the Top 25 Ducks.

© Jerome Miron – Imagn/Images – USA Today Network

RESULT: 17-10 loss vs. LSU
Clemson never quite found its rhythm against LSU, in part because it couldn’t generate anything in the ground game. The Tigers ran for just 31 yards against LSU, putting all the pressure on Cade Klubnik to perform.

He simply faced too much pressure from the other set of Tigers, never quite settling into the game. It’s early, and a loss won’t cripple Clemson… but it definitely narrows the margin for error quite considerably.

RESULT: 38-19 win vs. Northern Arizona
Arizona State got a fight from Northern Arizona, with the tussle continuing deep into the fourth quarter with a late Lumberjacks score. But the Sun Devils were clearly the better team, particularly offensively.

Quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 257 yards and two scores, while rushing for a team-leading 73 yards and two more scores. The Sun Devils posted a well-balanced offensive outing: 257 yards passing and 201 yards rushing.

RESULT: 27-24 loss at Miami
Puzzlingly, Notre Dame didn’t really ride star tailback Jeremiyah Love against Miami. He wasn’t overly involved, which put a lot of pressure on quarterback CJ Carr in his debut. He handled himself well, helping the Fighting Irish erase a 14-point deficit.

Miami managed to win in the trenches, something that will need a close look at Notre Dame going forward. There’s still plenty of season left, but this one will sting for the Fighting Irish with a tough schedule still looming.

Rest of the Projected AP Top 25

  1. Illinois Fighting Illini (1-0)
  2. South Carolina Gamecocks (1-0)
  3. Michigan Wolverines (1-0)
  4. Florida Gators (1-0)
  5. SMU Mustangs (1-0)
  6. Oklahoma Sooners (1-0)
  7. Texas A&M Aggies (1-0)
  8. Alabama Crimson Tide (0-1)
  9. Indiana Hoosiers (1-0)
  10. Ole Miss Rebels (1-0)
  11. Iowa State Cyclones (2-0)
  12. Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0)
  13. Tennessee Volunteers (1-0)
  14. Florida State Seminoles (1-0)
  15. Utah Utes (1-0)

This feature will be updated after games on Sunday and Monday night.

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Wake Forest’s Jake Dickert revives the Demon Deacons in debut season

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Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert looks on during the second half of a game against Georgia Tech on Sept. 27, 2025, in Winston-Salem (AP Photo/Matt Kelley)

For over a decade, Dave Clawson built Wake Forest into one of the steadiest football programs in the Atlantic Coast Conference, crafting a developmental model that produced seven consecutive bowl appearances.

Clawson’s approach to making the Demon Deacons a fixture in North Carolina’s college football landscape was deliberate: recruit under-the-radar prospects, develop them patiently for two or three seasons, then rely on experienced upperclassmen to carry the program.

As the transfer portal and NIL opportunities reshaped college football, that model became harder to sustain. After back-to-back 4-8 seasons, Clawson resigned, citing a rapidly changing landscape and acknowledging he could no longer give the job everything it required.

Wake Forest suddenly faced a reset as a coaching change, roster turnover and evolving expectations left the program searching for direction. When Jake Dickert, former coach at Washington State, arrived in Winston-Salem ahead of the 2025 season, optimism was cautious at best.

What followed was one of the ACC’s most striking turnarounds.

In his first season, Dickert — the North State Journal’s 2025 Coach of the Year — restored stability and belief, guiding Wake to an 8-4 record and a return to bowl eligibility.

Capping off Dickert’s debut season, the Demon Deacons (8-4) will face SEC representative Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-7) in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Jan. 2 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.

In their 2025 campaign, the Deacs tied for the most victories among all FBS programs in the Carolinas, underscoring the program’s rapid rebound. Wake Forest defeated two teams ranked at the time, including a road victory at Virginia (the Cavaliers’ only home loss of the season) and a home win that snapped SMU’s 20-game regular-season conference winning streak.

After back-to-back losses in September, Wake responded by winning six of seven games before closing the regular season with a loss at Duke; the Deacs finished 4-4 in ACC play.

On the field, Dickert leaned on a blend of experience and toughness. Graduate transfer quarterback Robby Ashford brought leadership to an offense that had struggled for consistency in recent seasons, while senior running back Demond Claiborne anchored the ground game and emerged as a physical focal point in key moments.

Defense again proved to be the program’s backbone. The Demon Deacons ranked sixth in the ACC and 38th nationally in scoring defense, finished top five in the league in total and passing defense, and did not allow a touchdown against either Virginia or North Carolina.

Dickert’s impact extended well beyond Saturdays.

Before the season, he overhauled Wake Forest’s recruiting and scouting infrastructure, assembling a 10-person staff dedicated to identifying talent and building depth in a new era of college football. The early returns have been promising.

During the recent National Signing Day, Wake Forest announced a 30-player 2026 recruiting class — the highest-ranked in program history — currently inside the national top 50. The class includes one four-star and 29 three-star recruits, signaling a shift toward broader talent acquisition and immediate competitiveness.

Dickert’s efforts were rewarded following the regular season. On Dec. 2, Wake Forest Vice President and Athletics Director John Currie announced that Dickert had signed a long-term contract extension.

“Jake Dickert has proven himself to be one of college football’s rising head coaches and one of the truly special leaders in the ACC,” Currie said. “He has galvanized our locker room, our campus, and our community. Coach Dickert is exactly the type of leader who inspires players, and he and his family fit seamlessly into the Wake Forest and Winston-Salem community.”

Dickert echoed that sentiment, pointing to long-term investment as central to Wake Forest’s direction.

“Our family could not be more grateful to call Wake Forest and Winston-Salem home,” he said. “Over the last 11-plus months, our staff and student-athletes have embraced a new process of being ‘Built in the Dark.’ When John approached me a few weeks ago about the university’s desire to further invest in our program, I was both humbled and energized.”

“This commitment ensures that our staff has the stability, resources and support necessary to continue elevating Wake Forest football,” Dickert added. “I’m proud of this team, our staff and our seniors who built the foundation for this new era, and excited for what’s ahead. There has never been a better time to be a Demon Deacon.”

While roster turnover remains a reality, Wake Forest’s trajectory is still heading upward. With a retooled staff, a revamped recruiting approach and renewed confidence throughout the program, Dickert has revived the Demon Deacons and positioned them for sustained relevance for years to come.





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Major college football program linked to 1,800 yard RB in transfer portal

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North Texas enjoyed a historic 2025 season, finishing 12–2 overall (7–1 in the American Conference) and cracking the AP Top 25.

The Mean Green posted the nation’s top offense (45.1 points per game), reached the AAC Championship Game, and capped the year with a thrilling 49–47 New Mexico Bowl win over San Diego State, the most wins in program history.

A key driver behind that success was true freshman running back Caleb Hawkins, who posted 1,434 rushing yards on 230 carries (6.2 yards per carry) with 25 rushing touchdowns, plus 32 catches for 370 receiving yards and four receiving TDs, 1,804 scrimmage yards and 29 total touchdowns.

He earned All-America and All-Conference freshman honors, national freshman awards recognition, and MVP honors in North Texas’ bowl victory.

However, shortly after, he announced his decision to enter the NCAA transfer portal, positioning himself as one of the highest-profile running backs available when the portal opens Friday.

On Monday, On3’s Pete Nakos specifically listed Hawkins among portal names being tracked and identified Texas as one of the programs showing early interest or appearing as a logical landing spot in that early intel.

Texas Longhorns defensive back Kobe Black (6) and teammates.

Texas Longhorns defensive back Kobe Black (6) and teammates react after making an interception against the Texas A&M Aggies | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Hawkins was a lightly-recruited three-star prospect out of North Rock Creek High School (Shawnee, Oklahoma) who signed with North Texas over offers from Emporia State and Central Oklahoma. 

Texas finished the 2025 season ranked No. 13 in the final AP poll but failed to reach the College Football Playoff despite entering the year as the preseason No. 1 team in the AP Top 25.

Sophomore quarterback Arch Manning has publicly confirmed he will return to Texas for 2026, but the Longhorns face significant attrition at running back, with Quintrevion Wisner, Jerrick Gibson, and CJ Baxter all set to enter the transfer portal.

Texas has a clear need at running back, Hawkins’ proximity to Austin, and the program’s proven history of developing NFL-level backs, such as Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Brooks, Roschon Johnson, and Jaydon Blue, all point to Texas as a logical landing spot for Hawkins.

Read More at College Football HQ

  • $2.6 million QB ranked as No. 1 transfer in college football

  • 25-touchdown RB shares farewell note after entering college football transfer portal

  • College Football Playoff team loses All-Conference player to transfer portal

  • College football team loses three All-Americans to transfer portal



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Saint Peter’s visits Fairfield after Sparks’ 26-point game

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Saint Peter’s Peacocks (5-5, 2-0 MAAC) at Fairfield Stags (8-5, 0-2 MAAC)

Fairfield, Connecticut; Monday, 7 p.m. EST

BETMGM SPORTSBOOK LINE: Stags -3.5; over/under is 138.5

BOTTOM LINE: Fairfield hosts Saint Peter’s after Braden Sparks scored 26 points in Fairfield’s 121-58 win over the City Tech Beavers.

The Stags have gone 5-1 in home games. Fairfield ranks second in the MAAC with 24.6 defensive rebounds per game led by Brandon Benjamin averaging 5.7.

The Peacocks are 2-0 in MAAC play. Saint Peter’s is fourth in the MAAC with 10.6 offensive rebounds per game led by Jahki Gupton averaging 1.8.

Fairfield averages 8.6 made 3-pointers per game, 1.7 more made shots than the 6.9 per game Saint Peter’s gives up. Saint Peter’s averages 8.7 made 3-pointers per game this season, 1.6 more made shots on average than the 7.1 per game Fairfield gives up.

The Stags and Peacocks meet Monday for the first time in conference play this season.

TOP PERFORMERS: Benjamin is averaging 12.8 points, 9.7 rebounds and 1.6 blocks for the Stags. Sparks is averaging 17.7 points over the last 10 games.

Brent Bland averages 3.4 made 3-pointers per game for the Peacocks, scoring 16.0 points while shooting 40.0% from beyond the arc. TJ Robinson is averaging 12.3 points and 3.2 assists.

___

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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Josh Pate: ‘The Dabo Swinney Model Doesn’t Work Anymore’

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As usual, Pate is spot on here.

The landscape of college football is changing by the day, and the new mantra for any coach looking to stay in the game is “adapt or die.”

One coach that has been dragged kicking and screaming into the NIL and transfer portal era of college sports is none other than Clemson Tigers head coach Dabo Swinney.

And this weekend’s Pinstripe Bowl (aka The Disappointment Bowl) may have been the metaphorical death blow to Dabo’s reign as one of college football’s elites.

I’ve been on the “Dabo is done” train for a hot minute now, and one media personality who is with me (as he usually is) is Josh Pate.

Pate put it as bluntly as he could on the latest episode of his podcast, Josh Pate’s College Football Show.

“This was going to be the year that if the Dabo model still worked, it would be proven,” Pate explained, “and they went 7–6.”

This was about as disappointing a season for a College Football Playoff contender outside of State College, PA, but according to Pate, things could get a lot worse for Clemson before they get better.

“On paper, next year should be worse for Clemson.”

Brutal.

The “Dabo Model” Pate is referring to is the complete and utter dismissal of the transfer portal and reluctance to lean into NIL.

As I’ve said, an over reliance on the transfer portal can be just as damning as not using it at all (see Florida State), but there needs to be a healthy influx of talent from the portal if you want your program to survive in this day and age.

The truth is, even with Clemson’s relative success in the recruiting ranks, that well was starting to dry up, and there was no other source of talent being infused into the team.

Unfortunately for Tigers fans, Dabo isn’t willing to make the changes or adaptations to grow and evolve into a winning coach in 2025, a fact Pate knows all too well.

“Any sizable improvement at this point would require significant change, and I don’t expect Dabo Swinney to change.

“If you don’t adapt, you will die as a playoff contender,” Pate said, echoing my earlier sentiment.

Will Clemson force Dabo’s hand or let him ride off into the sunset as he dies on the hills of his old principles?

Time will tell, but Clemson fans have to be sick seeing the same man who built their program to such dizzying heights less than a decade ago be the very source of their downfall.

A cruel irony for a fanbase which deserves better.





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Rodriguez Names Boulware as Running Backs Coach

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MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – West Virginia University football coach Rich Rodriguez announced that Jay Boulware has been hired as the running backs coach on the Mountaineer staff.

“Jay Boulware brings years of successful experience as a highly respected coach and recruiter,” Rodriguez said. “His knowledge of the Big 12 Conference and ability to recruit high-level players and develop running backs make him a great addition to our program. I look forward to having him join our staff here at WVU.”

 

Boulware, a 29-year coaching veteran, comes to West Virginia after serving as the running backs coach and special teams coordinator at Kentucky for the past three years. He has coached running backs, tight ends and special teams at numerous Power 4 programs, has coached in 17 bowl games, including several BCS and CFP games and won a national championship. Programs that he worked for won seven conference championships, had numerous indviiduals named all-conference, All-American, national individual finalists and NFL Draft choices.

 

His resume includes working at Texas (2020-21, 1996-97), Oklahoma (2013-20), Auburn (2009-12), Iowa State (2007-09), Utah (2005-07), Stanford (2004-05) and Arizona (2000-04).

 

He also spent time assisting with the running backs with the Pittsburgh Steelers and did fellowships with the New Orleans Saints and the San Francisco 49ers. His first full-time coaching position was at Northern Illinois (1997-2000).

 

In 2023, Kentucky boasted a back who finished with 1,129 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, in 2024 – two running backs had almost 600 yards each and in 2025, his top running back finished with more than 700 yards and 12 touchdowns.

 

This past season, the Wildcats finished No. 13 nationally in kickoff return defense. In 2024, UK was No. 6 nationally in punt return defense, No. 15 in net punting and No. 25 in kickoff return defense. In 2023, the Wildcats ranked No. 2 nationally in kickoff return yards, averaging 30.13 yards per return and scored a nation-leading three touchdowns.

At Texas, he helped the No. 19 Longhorns finish 7-3 overall and capture the Alamo Bowl title in 2020.

He spent seven years at Oklahoma as the special teams coordinator, five seasons as the running backs coach and two years with the tight ends. The Sooners’ special teams produced 10 touchdowns, a safety and three returned

two-point PATs.

Boulware guided six of his running backs at OU to 1,000-yard seasons and five of his running backs earned first or second-team All-Big 12 honors with three players drafted in the NFL.

Before Oklahoma, he spent four seasons (2009-12) at Auburn as the tight ends coach and special teams coordinator in 2008. Two seasons later, the Tigers posted a 14-0 record capped by a 22-19 win over Oregon in the BCS Championship Game.

Boulware spent two seasons (2007-08) at Iowa State coaching running backs and special teams under Gene Chizik. The Cyclones ranked No. 12 nationally in kickoff returns in 2008, set an NCAA FBS individual record with 319 kickoff return yards against Oklahoma State. ISU was also second in the Big 12 Conference in punting that year.

 

Prior to Iowa State, Boulware worked for two seasons as tight ends coach/co-special teams coordinator at Utah under coach Kyle Whittingham. While there, his special teams units were among the Mountain West Conference leaders, including a kickoff return unit that led the MWC in 2006.

 

Boulware spent three seasons at Arizona under coach John Mackovic as tight ends coach (2001), running backs coach (2002) and running backs coach/special teams coordinator (2003). During his tenure with the Wildcats, he mentored running back Mike Bell who finished his collegiate career with 3,163 rushing yards, the third-highest total in school history, and was named second-team All-Pac 10 as a sophomore.

An all-state selection at Nimitz High School in Irving, Texas, Boulware played on the offensive and defensive lines. He went on to play at Texas as an offensive lineman in 1991. After redshirting his first year and seeing action as a reserve in 1992, he was contending for a starting position before the 1993 season but was forced to end his career after being diagnosed with a health condition.

He began his coaching career at Texas, first as a student coach (1994-95) and then as a graduate assistant (1996). He helped UT win at least a share of three conference championships and made three bowl appearances in all three of his seasons working with the staff.

In 2024, he was inducted into the Irving ISD Athletic Hall of Fame.

Boulware graduated from Texas in 1996 with a degree in economics. He has one daughter, Jordin.



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Buckeyes, Red Raiders, Hoosiers, Bulldogs are expected to advance :: WRALSportsFan.com

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Something to watch in the College Football Playoff quarterfinals will be how sharp the teams that got first-round byes are early in their games.

No. 2 seed Ohio State will have had 24 days between games and No. 1 Indiana, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Texas Tech each will have had 25-day layoffs.

Last year was the first with a 12-team field, and the quarterfinals were nothing short of a disaster for the top four seeds, with extended time off the common denominator: No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State all lost and were outscored by a total of 81-13 in the first halves. They had 14 punts, three turnovers on downs, three fumbles, two missed field goals, two field goals and two touchdowns on their first combined 26 drives.

No team struggled more than Oregon, which was unbeaten before its 41-21 loss to eventual national champion Ohio State at the Rose Bowl. The Ducks were down 34-0 in the second quarter, punting on five of their first six possessions (including four 3-and-outs) and turning the ball over on downs on the other.

The picks, with seedings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:

This game sets up as a showdown between two top-10 defenses at the Cotton Bowl. Ohio State scored just 10 points in its loss to Indiana in the Big Ten championship game and Miami managed just 10 in its CFP first-round win over Texas A&M.

With points at a premium, the Buckeyes will need to do a better job in the red zone. They’ve come away with touchdowns on just two of their last seven trips inside the 20-yard line. Julian Sayin also must get the ball out quickly against a front seven that sacked the Aggies’ Marcel Reed seven times. The Buckeyes’ offensive line had allowed just six sacks through 12 games before allowing five against Indiana.

Miami, which will be going against a defense allowing 213 yards and 8.2 points per game to lead the nation, needs another big game from RB Mark Fletcher and continue to find creative ways to get do-it-all freshman star Malachi Toney involved.

Pick: Ohio State 17-10.

Oregon seemed to lose interest after getting out to a 34-6 lead in a 51-34 first-round win over James Madison, and Dan Lanning and his staff were beside themselves. The Ducks should have no problem staying focused in the Orange Bowl.

Texas Tech will be their biggest challenge since Indiana went into Eugene and left with a 10-point win in October. Oregon’s Dante Moore could be the first quarterback taken in the NFL draft, and he will have ample opportunity to showcase his skills against a defense that has two AP first-team All-Americans in David Bailey and Jacob Rodriguez, a second-teamer in A.J. Holmes and a third-teamer in Lee Hunter.

The Red Raiders need to keep injury-prone QB Behren Morton upright and, like Ohio State, they need to get touchdowns instead of field goals when they get inside the red zone.

Pick: Texas Tech 27-24.

It’s the SEC vs. the Big Ten and the first Alabama-Indiana meeting ever. Old money vs. new money.

The Hoosiers’ rise under Curt Cignetti is the best storyline in college football in a long time, and the idyllic Rose Bowl setting would be just the place for it to continue with Fernando Mendoza playing his first game since winning the Heisman Trophy.

Alabama is more than capable of spoiling everything, but it can’t afford another start like it had against Oklahoma. The Crimson Tide trailed 17-0 and was out-yarded 118-12 in the first quarter before matching the largest comeback in CFP history and winning 34-24.

Indiana’s players took notice of the Tide’s perseverance and warned no lead would be safe. Cignetti will have his team playing with the pedal to the metal.

Pick: Indiana 28-17.

Mississippi beat Tulane 41-10 in the first round for Pete Golding’s initial victory as successor to Lane Kiffin, and now the competition ramps up at the Sugar Bowl.

The Bulldogs won the regular-season meeting 43-35 at home, part of their current nine-game winning streak and Mississippi’s only loss. Gunner Stockton’s two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter wiped out a 35-26 deficit; Trinidad Chambliss was just 1-of-10 passing for 1 yard over the final 15 minutes.

The Rebels will need a more even performance from Chambliss, who was terrific against Tulane, and they have to hope RB Kewan Lacy comes back after hurting a shoulder against the Green Wave.

Georgia played its best late in the season, and it will be interesting to see how much, if any, the layoff affects the Bulldogs.

Pick: Georgia 31-21.

First-round CFP games: Straight-up — 2-2; Against spread — 0-4.

Season straight up — 194-61; Against spread — 123-131-1.

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Get poll alerts and updates on the AP Top 25 throughout the season. Sign up here. AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-football-poll and https://apnews.com/hub/college-football



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