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North Carolina vs. TCU score prediction by expert football model

Published

4 months ago

September 1, 2025

North Carolina vs. TCU score prediction by expert football model

Bill Belichick makes his anticipated college football debut on Monday night as North Carolina welcomes Big 12 hopeful TCU in this Week 1 matchup. Here is the latest prediction for the game from an expert model that projects scores and picks winners.

All eyes are on Bill Belichick, the eight-time Super Bowl champion considered the single-most accomplished coach in NFL history, as he takes on a brand new challenge for himself, never having coached in the collegiate ranks in his career.

And his roster is something of a mystery, undergoing considerable turnover all over the field, and debuting South Alabama transfer Gio Lopez at the quarterback position, a player who brings a reputation as a dual-threat playmaker behind center.

In the Tar Heels’ way in Belichick’s debut is TCU, three years removed from playing for the national championship, just 14-11 overall since then, but coming off an improved 9-4 outing last season and returning a key piece at the most important position.

Josh Hoover reprises his role at quarterback for the Horned Frogs, a year after leading college football’s eighth-ranked passing offense, achieving career-highs with 3,949 passing yards on nearly 66 percent of his pass attempts, throwing 27 touchdowns, and averaging more than 8 yards per pass.

What do the analytics suggest as the Tar Heels and Horned Frogs meet on the same field?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how North Carolina and TCU compare in this Week 1 college football game.

As with most projections, this model is siding with the visiting team against Belichick’s squad in the opener, but by a pretty narrow margin.

SP+ predicts that TCU will defeat North Carolina by a projected score of 32 to 27 and to win the game by an expected margin of 5 points in the process.

The model gives the Horned Frogs a decent 62 percent chance of outright victory.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good was it last season? A year ago, the SP+ model went 409-389-9 overall against the spread with a 50.9 win percentage.

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Along with the models, the sportsbooks are also giving a slight edge to the Horned Frogs over their ACC counterparts in this road game.

TCU is a narrow 3.5 point favorite against North Carolina, according to the latest game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel lists the total at 54.5 points for the matchup.

And it set the moneyline odds for TCU at -166 and for North Carolina at +138 to win the game outright.

If you’re using this prediction to bet on the game, you should take …

If you do, you’ll be in the company of most bettors heading into this matchup.

TCU is getting a slight majority of bets to take care of the Tar Heels in this Week 1 opener, according to the latest spread consensus picks for the game.

A majority 56 percent of bets are siding with the Horned Frogs to beat Belichick’s team by at least four points and cover the narrow point spread.

The other 44 percent of wagers project North Carolina will either defeat TCU outright at home in the upset, or keep the margin to a field goal or less in a loss.

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Most other analytical football models are also siding with the Horned Frogs over the Tar Heels.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times and pick winners.

TCU is the favorite over North Carolina on the index, coming out ahead in the majority 58.7 percent of the computer’s most recent simulations of the game.

That leaves the Tar Heels as the presumptive winner in the remaining 41.3 percent of sims.

How does that translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

TCU is projected to be 5.9 points better than North Carolina on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If so, that would also be enough for the Frogs to cover the spread against the Heels.

How accurate has the College Football Power Index computer prediction model been in recent memory? Last season, it was one of a select few to surpass the 70 percent success threshold.

Predicting a total of 799 college football games a year ago, the Power Index computers were correct for 70.964 percent of their final picks, ranking eighth nationally out of 55 other football models.

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Despite the lull from the national title game season, Sonny Dykes is still very successful at TCU overall, winning 27 of 40 games since taking over the program, and his current team is expected to finish convincingly in the better half of the competitive Big 12 this year.

Hoover’s return bodes extremely well for TCU, which will want to get its receivers out in the open early against a Carolina secondary that could let them.

Plenty of college football programs undergo roster changes every year, especially in the transfer portal era, but what UNC has gone through is another animal, with 70 newcomers to the program by transfer or from high school.

Even with continuity, the Tar Heels’ defense left something to be desired last season, ranking 89th in scoring, 80th against the pass, and 72nd in total production.

Belichick is known as a great defensive strategist, and his ability to build something out of this unit, combined with Lopez’s mobility, should keep Carolina within striking distance, but the Horned Frogs have more proven firepower moving the ball.

College Football HQ picks: TCU beats North Carolina and covers the spread.

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When: Mon., Sept. 1
Where: North Carolina

Time: 8 p.m. Eastern
TV: ESPN network

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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More college football from SI: Top 25 Rankings | Schedule | Teams

Follow College Football HQ: Bookmark | Rankings | Picks

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Nick Saban’s new role with the Nashville Predators

Published

6 minutes ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (AP) — Nick Saban knows his strengths with seven national championships as a college football coach. He also understands how to put coaches and athletes in the best position to succeed.

That’s what he hopes to bring to the NHL’s Nashville Predators after joining the franchise as a minority owner.

“I’m no expert in hockey, so don’t look at me like I’m going to make some huge impact coaching around here because that’s not going to happen,” Saban said Monday. “But I do have a pretty good idea of what it takes to have successful organizations.”

Saban made his first appearance Monday in his new role as a minority owner alongside Predators chairman Bill Haslam.

The Predators announced Saban’s purchase Dec. 16 through Dream Sports Ventures LLC, an entity controlled by Saban and business partner Joe Agresti. That business group features 10 car dealerships, including two in Nashville.

Haslam, a former Tennessee governor, was working on a possible WNBA expansion franchise when Saban told the Predators controlling owner that he also might be interested in hockey.

“I thought, ‘Well, that’s the greatest no brainer of all time,’” Haslam said. “You have somebody who understands building a championship culture, who understands, I think, better than almost anybody in sports the process that’s needed to get to where you can compete as a champion.”

Saban grew up in West Virginia with no hockey around. He became interested in hockey when coaching at Michigan State and became friends and shared ideas with that team’s coach. Saban called this an opportunity to be involved with a team for the first time since he announced his retirement Jan. 10, 2024.

So what will Saban bring to the NHL and the Predators in his newest role?

His experience building programs both in college football and six seasons in the NFL working for Bill Belichick in Cleveland and as head coach of Miami. A “transformational leader” as Saban put it. Once college football season ends, Saban said he will be involved as much as Haslam wants.

Saban already has spoken to coaches and some players during what he called a minicamp. Saban also has met a couple times with general manager Barry Trotz, saying his goal is to support Trotz and everyone else with the Predators.

Nashville won the Western Conference before losing the Stanley Cup Final in 2017 to Pittsburgh in six games. The Predators won the Presidents’ Trophy for the 2017-18 season but ranked 26th out of 32 NHL teams Monday five points back of the second wild-card spot in the West.

“To be a part of the hockey team here is something special, and we’d love to build it into a championship,” Saban said. “We’d love to partner with Mr. Haslam to do anything that we can do to help this organization be successful.”

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AP NHL: https://apnews.com/hub/nhl

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Missouri linebacker Damon Wilson II accuses Georgia of illegal punishment in transfer portal lawsuit

Published

60 minutes ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

COLUMBIA, Mo. — Missouri pass rusher Damon Wilson II claims that the athletic department at Georgia is trying to illegally punish him for entering the transfer portal in a lawsuit filed by the linebacker in state court Tuesday in Boone County, Missouri.

Wilson transferred to the Tigers last January after signing a 14-month deal with Georgia’s booster collective to capitalize on his name, image and likeness. He received $30,000 in an initial payment on a $500,000 deal before entering the transfer portal.

Georgia filed a lawsuit last month claiming that Wilson owed its athletic department $390,000 in liquidated damages for leaving the team. Wilson’s countersuit claims that his former school is using such damages to “punish” him for his decision to leave.

Georgia spokesman Steve Drummond said the school had no comment because it involves pending litigation.

“When the University of Georgia Athletic Association enters binding agreements with student-athletes, we honor our commitments and expect student-athletes to do the same,” Drummond said upon the school’s initial lawsuit in early December.

Wilson had nine sacks and an interception this season for the Tigers. They will play Virginia in the Gator Bowl on Saturday.

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Dylan Stewart, top 2027 NFL prospect, stays with Gamecocks, lands major NIL deal

Published

2 hours ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCIV) — One day after South Carolina received word that star quarterback LaNorris Sellers was staying in town, another star said he plans to return to the fold.

Dylan Stewart, the Gamecocks’ star edge rusher, announced he is returning for his true junior season in 2026, according to Pete Thamel, ESPN’s college football insider.

Stewart has 11 sacks in his two seasons at South Carolina and has forced 6 fumbles. Among ESPN’s draft projections, he appears to be a top prospect for the 2027 NFL Draft.

READ MORE | “South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers stays put, vows stronger return for 2026 season.”

The former five-star recruit and rising SEC pass rusher chose continuity over the transfer portal, agreeing to an NIL deal that places him among the highest compensated non-quarterbacks in college football, according to ESPN’s reporting.

South Carolina’s defense is back in reliable hands, as the Gamecocks ready themselves to bounceback from a 4-8 season.

After the pitiful finish, South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer shook up his coaching staff.

South Carolina is also expected to hire Penn State defensive line coach Deion Barnes as the defensive end and outside linebacker coach.

He’s been Penn State’s defensive line coach the past three years and worked with the line there since 2020. He coached Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac.

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READ MORE | “South Carolina to kick off 2026 football season at home against Kent State.”

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Michigan coaching search: Rece Davis advises Wolverines to keep waiting if they want Kalen DeBoer

Published

3 hours ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Until Michigan officially hires a head coach, the name Kalen DeBoer is going to be mentioned with the search. Even after DeBoer released statements saying he would stay with Alabama, rumors are out there. Folks in Ann Arbor might have been cheering for Oklahoma on Friday night to potentially speed up the process.

Instead, Alabama is heading to the Rose Bowl to face Indiana on Jan. 1. So, if DeBoer was going to be Michigan’s hire, the wait will continue. Which is exactly what ESPN’s Rece Davis believes the Wolverines should be doing in this situation.

“From Michigan’s standpoint, if that’s the guy you want, wait,” Davis said via the College GameDay Podcast. “If it takes waiting until they finish, if they were to upset Indiana, wait if that’s the guy you want. Why settle? One portal class, one recruiting class is not worth settling for a program like Michigan. Now, I understand the concept that there’s no guarantee you’re going to get him. I get that. But if you are convicted that this is your guy, wait it out. See what happens, push forward.”

If Alabama were to win in Pasadena, the next College Football Playoff date would be Jan. 8 or 9. A run to the national championship means DeBoer would not be done coaching the 2025 season until Jan. 19. But Davis mentions no singular NCAA transfer portal and/or recruiting class is as important as getting the right guy for Michigan.

When it comes down to it, Davis does not think DeBoer will leave Tuscaloosa this offseason. Those released statements were viewed as pretty telling in Davis’s eyes. And at the end of the day, DeBoer is still looking to prove to be the guy who can replace Nick Saban at Alabama.

“I do not think Kalen DeBoer will take the job,” Davis said. “Ultimately, because I don’t think he wants to be perceived as running from what he ran to. Michigan’s a great job. If he does, he does, and great for him if that’s what he decides. I don’t think he will end up doing that. Maybe he will.”

The latest update on where the Michigan coaching search came from On3’s Pete Nakos on Saturday. Nakos outlined who the top candidates are at the moment, mainly after Kenny Dillingham signed an extension to stay in Tempe with the Arizona State Sun Devils not too long ago.

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Damon Wilson ll files countersuit against UGA, claims NIL contract non-binding

Published

4 hours ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

Georgia Bulldogs

Wilson’s lawsuit states that UGA’s attempt to collect the $390K lump sum was a ‘strong-arm tactic.’

Damon Wilson II played 417 defensive snaps for UGA during the 2024-25 season. He transferred to Missouri. (Jason Getz / AJC)

Damon Wilson ll, who transferred from Georgia to Missouri, is suing the University of Georgia Athletic Association and the Classic City Collective claiming the term sheet he signed to remain with the program is not a legally binding agreement.

The 42-page lawsuit, acquired by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution after it was filed in the circuit court of Boone County, Mo. on Tuesday, seeks to grant Wilson relief from UGA seeking a $390,000 lump sum it claims Wilson owes by contract and hold defendants liable for “damages sufficient to compensate him for the financial and reputational harm” suffered.

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Mike is in his 10th season covering SEC and Georgia athletics for AJC-DawgNation and has 25 years of CFB experience. Mike is a Heisman Trophy voter and former Football Writers President who was named the National FWAA Beat Writer of the Year in January, 2018.

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$2.5 million QB linked to unexpected college football program

Published

5 hours ago

December 24, 2025

Your Sports Nation

A multitude of college football players are set to look for a new home for the 2026 college football season.

In the weeks before the NCAA transfer portal opens, quarterbacks across college football have expressed their desire to explore new destinations. These quarterbacks include DJ Lagway of Florida, Sam Leavitt of Arizona State, Josh Hoover of TCU and Brendan Sorsby of Cincinnati.

One intriguing name in the portal quarterback is former Nebraska signal caller Dylan Raiola. He will enter the transfer portal with two seasons of eligibility remaining.

Raiola is expected to command around $2.5 million in NIL compensation from whatever school he lands at.

One school that has entered the sweepstakes for Raiola is Louisville. Steve Wiltfong of On3 mentioned the possibility of Raiola joining the Cardinals in a recent edition of “Wiltfong Whiparound.”

Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) runs off after scoring a touchdown against USC | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

“They can be a program to keep an eye on for Dylan Raiola,” Wiltfong said.

In the three seasons Jeff Brohm has coached at his alma mater, Louisville has not started a quarterback it recruited from high school.

Former Purdue and California quarterback Jack Plummer transferred to Louisville and started for the Cardinals in 2023. The Cardinals acquired a former Oregon and Texas Tech quarterback from the portal to be their starter in 2024. Brohm brought in former USC quarterback Miller Moss to be the Cardinals’ starter in 2025.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder arrived at Nebraska as a freshman in 2024 as one of the highest-rated recruits in the country. Raiola started all 13 games for the Cornhuskers and set a program record for passing yards by a freshman with 2,819 yards to go along with 13 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions.

He guided Nebraska to its first bowl win since 2015 with a defeat of Boston College (20-15) in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl.

A broken fibula cut Raiola’s 2025 season short after nine games in early November. He passed for 2,000 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in his abridged season with the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska (7-5, 4-5) will face No. 15 Utah (10-2, 7-2) in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31 to end the season (3:30 p.m. EST, ESPN).

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