Screenshot 2025-01-09 at 3.59.11 PM.pngResults backed up these scary numbers. Opposing batters slugged .726 against them with a .455 xwOBA and smacked nine home runs. For comparison’s sake, Aaron Judge had a .701 SLG and .479 xwOBA last season. Every time King threw a fastball last March or April, it was as if Judge was […]
Michael King was always an afterthought. First, going to the Marlins in the 12th round of the 2016 draft out of Boston College. Then, being traded to the Yankees as a throw-in in a deal that was predominantly to acquire international bonus pool money in their pursuit of Shohei Ohtani. Later, as an ascending as a relief pitcher that couldn’t make his way back into the rotation..252
Generally, righty pitchers don’t throw many sweepers to lefty batters because they perform much better against righty hitters.
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Whiff%
.359
Just check out his pitch usage against left-handed batters from May onward.R
That last piece of data intuitively makes sense given King’s adjustments after April. Lefties teed off on him early and couldn’t figure him out afterwards. Also, his sinker was devastating against righties and is one of the most difficult pitches to square-up in the league. This is a cool piece of analysis that’s come from new Bat Tracking data.As one of the best run-suppressors in the league, King was a master at limiting hard contact. After allowing 10 home runs in April alone, he surrendered just seven total the rest of the season. He was in the 99th percentile in exit velocity against, 97th percentile in hard-hit rate against, and had the lowest squared-up rate for any starting pitcher in the league after May 1st.King’s sinker became his second-most thrown pitch against lefties after May 1st and he was using it more regularly as a put-away pitch. He also threw it significantly more often against righties. Here’s Mookie Betts looking silly against one for good measure.Those three pitches along with his changeup allowed him to hit the ground running and pitch his way to a 1.88 ERA as a starter in 2023..293
.321
All of these issues could be traced back to his fastballs not maintaining their same level of effectiveness as the season before. Each were a few ticks slower and their Stuff+ each dropped below 80! That’s so bad it’s past the danger zone and in the “something might be really wrong” zone.32.2
So, what made this move for King possible? And how did he transition so smoothly?
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.218
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At this point, King had two similarly sized samples across two seasons as a starter: in one, he was lights-out and in the other, he was awful.Rather, King had the gumption to start the bulk of his at-bats against lefties with them. More than trust in one’s stuff, that shows a ton of trust in one’s command.
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Lastly, his most thrown pitcher overall to lefties was his changeup – another pitch whose effectiveness is closely tied to command. While that alone was not particularly crazy, King threw that changeup as often when he was behind in the count as he was ahead or had two strikes on a batter. That’s only possibly with pinpoint command and confidence.
| So, King had the stuff to be a starter, excelled there in a short stint, and had that role clearly defined for him once in San Diego. All systems go, right? Right? | So, King had the stuff to be a starter, excelled there in a short stint, and had that role clearly defined for him once in San Diego. All systems go, right? Right? | All in all, he wound up as the 17th most valuable starting pitcher in the league according to FanGraphs’ Player Rater. That was ahead of George Kirby, Aaron Nola, and Luis Castillo. | Obviously, moving from the bullpen to the rotation was the key reason King broke out. In fact, he did it before it was cool – shoutout Seth Lugo for truly blazing the trail – and likely paved the way for Reynaldo López, Jordan Hicks, Clay Holmes, and possibly Jeff Hoffman to do the same. | King and his sinker are not average, though. It has plus-plus movement and he has fantastic command overall. That allowed him to be more creative and daring with that pitch than most other pitchers can afford to be. Look at the differences in where he located it in March and April versus the rest of the season. | |
| After May | Fewer fastballs down the middle is almost always a good thing. King was able to live there in the past when his fastball had more zip. As its stuff waned, his command became more important and helped pull that fastball from the doldrums. | King maintained his starters’ repertoire when he moved to the bullpen. He was one of just 22 relievers who threw a minimum of 50 IP to use four different pitches at least 10% of the time that season. Other current starters Lugo and Nick Martinez were also in that group. | I already told you about the wicked front-hip sinkers against lefties. Possibly more brazen than that, King’s most commonly thrown first pitch to them was his sweeper. The only way he could get away with that was throwing them back-door, and that’s exactly what he did. | With this, he no longer had any holes in his game and ran roughshod through the entire league. |
Again, less pitches right down the middle is great. But more specifically, King began locating that sinker on the lefties’ front hip. Few have the ability to weaponize it in that way and he was able to force some outrageous called strikes doing so..356
King came out on the other side of those tough early months with one of the most audacious gameplans in baseball. He did things from a command perspective that most other pitchers won’t even try, let alone center their game around it.This helped to usher in what would be a dominant summer for him.Overall, the results against King’s fastballs improved dramatically from May through the rest of the season.
Additionally, King wielded two plus fastballs – his four-seamer and sinker. As a reliever in 2023, they had a 104 and 111 Stuff+, respectively. After moving to the rotation, they held true at 109 and 108..300
At the end of the day, his sinker, sweeper, and changeup are all plus pitches and his command is exceptional. That should establish a safe enough floor for him to be at least a low-end SP1 with upside for more..408
SLG
He was one of just 13 starting pitchers who had both an above average four-seamer and sinker by Stuff+. Of course, he only threw 38 1/3 IP as a starter and sat just under five innings per start in that first stint back in the rotation. That allowed him to maintain his velocity from the bullpen and inflate those stuff numbers some. Still, that sinker is ridiculous.
To go along with the sinker, King’s sweeper has always been a true out-pitch. It darts across the zone from King’s low, cross-body release and had the fourth-most horizontal movement in baseball when he moved to the rotation. This thing is a frisbee.SLG
There should also be confidence in his workload with over 170 innings pitched last season and he’ll still pitch his home games in PetCo Park, one of the best pitchers’ parks in the league.
