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NIL

NIL is increasing competition (just like we said)

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3 months ago

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Your Benevolent Despot is not above being smug.

When the transfer portal opened its gaping maw onto college football and the earliest stirrings of NIL started to creep over the transom, a lot of people were bemoaning what they perceived as an impetus for the bluebloods to scoop up all the talent.

At the time, I dismissed those complaints. My argument was that it was more likely that highly-recruited players who couldn’t crack the lineup at the Big Boy schools would be more likely to transfer to smaller schools in order to get playing time.

Turns out I was right, but I was underselling it because I didn’t foresee some other factors.

This morning at Extra Points, the college sports business blog run by our old friend Matt Brown, a guest article (paywalled to subscribers, and you have my personal recommendation to do so because Matt does great work) by Carnegie Mellon marketing professor Tim Derdenger reports on a study of trends in the post-NIL era. Derdenger, along with Ivan Li from Texas-Dallas, did a study called “Does Personalized Pricing Increase Competition? Evidence From NIL in College Football”.

The paradigm I predicted has indeed come to pass, but for even more reasons than I imagined. You cannot have helped but notice over the last two years that college football on the whole has become more competitive. Indiana is ranked #2 in the nation, folks. Vanderbilt is beating everyone not named Alabama. Georgia Tech is unbeaten. Meanwhile, schools with extremely thick wallets are struggling with opponents like South Florida and Kentucky. Vegas underdogs are winning straight-up more frequently than ever.

So clearly, even though there are still a handful of schools which are clearly flying a little higher than the pack, the environment is becoming more and more competitive. It’s hard to continue to be great, as can be evidenced by the relative downturn in fortunes at places like Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Florida State, and Penn State.

One key factor mentioned in the study that I really want to touch on, though, is that high-star athletes know they’ve got a nearly 2/3 chance of getting drafted no matter where they play. You don’t have to go play at Ohio State to get your name called on draft day if you’re just out there building a resume. NFL scouts are going to see your film even if you’re playing for Memphis.

And if you really pay attention to K-State itself, you know this is true.

K-State is 115th among all FBS schools in all-time winning percentage — but 42nd in all-time Consensus All-Americans and 67th all-time in NFL draft picks. Where K-State ranks among undrafted free agents to go on to have NFL careers is an open question that could be researched, but as a K-State fan you can probably rattle off a good number of them; one of them is in the Green Bay Packers Hall of Fame, and it’s not Jordy Nelson.

Point being, as a destination for potential pros, or at least guys who can market their college football careers even if they don’t get drafted or play a down in the NFL, K-State punches above its weight and always has — even when the team was terrible. (Lynn Dickey and Steve Grogan and Gary Spani, anyone?)

There are really two kinds of guys who go to college to play football. There’s the guys who go to get an education and play some football while they’re at it, and you probably know who these guys are without even thinking about it too hard. Even players who think of as “pretty good” know they’re going to be doing something else for a career, and that’s always been a thing in Manhattan. Then there are the guys who want to play professionally, and they’re taking classes as a means to an end.

The transfer portal is letting guys who aren’t getting playing time go to a different school where they have a better shot. That doesn’t just affect players who are trying to go pro; it also affects players who just want to play. NIL is allowing schools to just outbid bluebloods — not because they have more money overall, but because it turns out that paying a roster two-deep with 4/5-star players is really expensive. These schools can’t afford to pay a dozen five-star guys to ride the bench, causing more churn.

And that is how you get a five-star wide receiver transferring out of Lincoln Riley’s offense to Tulane. It’s how you get Xavier McDonald, a four-star from Mississippi, choosing Sacramento State over Ole Miss and LSU because he knows he’s getting on the field from day one. These are by far not the only examples; you tend to see more of the “G5 to SEC” stuff because the media cares more about who’s coming into the SEC than who’s leaving it.

This sounds like anecdotal evidence, but the study has the numbers: since the dawn of the NIL era, 5-star players are 15% less likely to attend a top 10 school — and also 15% less likely to attend a top 25 — than they were before the money bags opened up.

The study also found that 3-star and low 4-star players are also moving to “lesser” programs as a whole; the only cohort which is moving “up” appears to be high 4-star players, who admittedly are probably the group that has the most to gain by moving into a more prestigious program, assuming they get the playing time. Another aspect here is that the blue bloods are likely relying on the high 4-stars to replace the 5-stars they’re not getting (or who are leaving).

But it should also be noted that the methodology of the study is based entirely on where teams are ranked in a given season — which means that the “15% less likely” factor applies to schools like Indiana, Boise State, Arizona State, even Iowa State. Friends, Indiana and Iowa State weren’t getting 5-stars anyway, so you can draw another conclusion there.

It was not an unreasonable assumption that the big schools would just spend their money to lock down all the talent once the gates were opened. But two factors must be remembered:

1) Nobody has enough money to pay NIL bags for 20 5-stars at once, and a smaller school can generally throw a larger single bag at an individual player than the big schools are even willing to toss. There are only so many 5-stars a year, and if you think about it, it makes perfect sense that it’s more likely for them to all end up at different schools than it is for a few schools to hoard them.

2) Players have their own motivations. The NIL money is going to be a factor no matter what, but a guy who’s trying to get drafted may take less in the short term if it means a situation where they’re going to be a starter immediately. No, that player’s not going to accept $20,000 to go play at Southern Utah, but you can bet that Cincinnati or Boston College or Fresno State can afford him.

There are a lot of reasons to be unsettled or even angry about where college sports have ended up, but “the blue bloods are going to hoard the talent” isn’t one of them. The opposite is true; NIL is preventing them from relying solely on their record and cachet.



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NIL

$2 million QB could redshirt next college football season amid transfer portal entry

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40 minutes ago

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January 12, 2026

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Under a week remains in the window for college football players to enter the NCAA transfer portal in the 2026 offseason. The portal officially opened on Jan. 2 and will remain open until Friday.

Over 4,000 players at all levels of college football have decided to enter the transfer portal in the last month. Some of the most notable entries into the portal include Power Four quarterbacks seeking better situations at their next school.

One of the first quarterbacks to enter the NCAA transfer portal in the offseason was former Nebraska signal-caller Dylan Raiola. He will have two seasons of eligibility remaining at his second school.

The 6-foot-3, 230-pounder was recruited to Nebraska by Matt Rhule as a five-star prospect in the Cornhuskers’ 2024 signing class. He passed for 2,819 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and led Nebraska to its first bowl game in eight seasons and first bowl victory since its win over UCLA in the 2015 Foster Farms Bowl.

Raiola broke his fibula against USC, limiting his season to just nine games. He passed for 2,000 yards, 18 touchdowns and six interceptions in his last year with Nebraska. Raiola announced his intent to enter the transfer portal on Dec. 15, 2025.

While many quarterbacks who entered the NCAA transfer portal were either clearly linked to another Power Five program or had already committed to one, Raiola’s portal journey has been much quieter despite his early entry. Some of the prospects for Raiola in 2026 are less conventional than those of most quarterbacks who enter the transfer portal.

Dylan Raiola throws the ball against Northwestern.

Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola (15) throws a pass against the Northwestern Wildcats | Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

Pete Nakos of On3 reported that one possible option for Raiola in 2026 would be to transfer to Oregon and that if Dante Moore returned to the Ducks, Raiola would still transfer there and use a redshirt.

“Sources have indicated that Raiola is in play to join the Oregon roster regardless of Dante Moore’s NFL draft decision,” Nakos said. “If Moore decided to return to school, Raiola could redshirt a season and be in line to start in 2027.”

Moore is currently projecting as the second best quarterback in the 2026 NFL draft behind Fernando Mendoza of Indiana. As it relates to Raiola, Moore also transferred to Oregon and redshirted a season while Dillon Gabriel started for the Ducks in 2024.

If Moore stays at Oregon and Raiola transfers there, it would resemble that of a transfer prior to the portal’s inception. College athletes used to be required to sit out one full season after transferring from one school to another, but that requirement ended after the portal’s launch.



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Report: Ty Simpson drawing top-dollar NIL offers to transfer after NFL Draft declaration

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2 hours ago

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January 12, 2026

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Is Ty Simpson this year’s Carson Beck? That’s a question the talented Alabama junior quarterback could be entertaining as multiple QB-needy programs reportedly try to sway him to transfer rather than jump to the NFL.

Beck famously declared for the 2025 NFL Draft last January before reversing course days later and transferring to Miami, where he’s led the 10th-ranked Hurricanes to the 2026 College Football Playoff national championship game Dec. 19 against No. 1 Indiana.

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Simpson formally announced his intentions to enter the 2026 NFL Draft last Wednesday. But that move may be on hold after the Crimson Tide’s 2025 starter — through third-parties — has reportedly received high-dollar NIL offers from other Power Four programs, including one particular deal that could total as much as $6.5 million, according to AL.com. That reportedly includes three other SEC programs that are offering at least $4 million for Simpson’s services in 2026, per AL.com.

Prior to his draft declaration last week, On3 insider Pete Nakos reported Simpson was evaluating all his options regarding his future per his agent, Peter Webb of QB Reps. That potentially included returning to Alabama, declaring for the NFL Draft, or entering the NCAA Transfer Portal.

“No decisions have been made about Ty declaring for the draft at this point, and he is still evaluating everything with his family and close advisors,” Webb told Nakos.

Simpson has long been considered a potential first-round lock, and is currently projected to be the third quarterback off the board according to ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr., behind only Indiana‘s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore, neither of whom have declared for the draft yet.

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Despite leaving Alabama’s 38-3 quarterfinal loss to Indiana early with a cracked rib, Simpson capped a strong redshirt junior season in Tuscaloosa by throwing for 3,567 yards and 28 touchdowns to just five interceptions in his first year as the Tide’s QB1. That included powering Alabama to an 11-4 record and a first-round victory over Oklahoma in the 2025 College Football Playoffs.

This news about Simpson comes two days after his two backups — redshirt sophomore Austin Mack and five-star true freshman Keelon Russell — both negotiated new deals with Alabama’s team collective, Yea Alabama, to return for the 2026 season.

The 6-foot-6 and 235-pound Mack saw the first significant action of his Crimson Tide career on New Year’s Eve when he replaced an injured Simpson in the second half of a 38-3 loss to No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl national quarterfinal.



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Former Auburn WR Cam Coleman commits to Texas

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2 hours ago

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January 12, 2026

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Former Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman committed to Texas out of the NCAA transfer portal, he announced via Instagram on Sunday. The Longhorns were one of three visits by the wideout.

Coleman had a large role for the Tigers’ offense over the last two years. In 2025, Coleman had 56 catches for 708 yards, five touchdowns and 12.6 yards per catch. In two seasons, Coleman has 93 catches for 1,306 yards, 13 touchdowns and 14 yards per catch.

Coleman came to Auburn as one of the program’s highest-rated recruits in recent history. Largely, he lived up to that billing as across two seasons, he hauled in 84 passes for 1,215 yards and 12 touchdowns.

As a high school prospect, Coleman was a Five-Star Plus+ recruit in the 2024 class. According to the Rivals Industry Ranking, an equally weighted average that utilizes all three major recruiting services, he was the nation’s No. 4 overall prospect and No. 2 wide receiver.

He signed with the Tigers over offers from Clemson, Texas A&M, Alabama, LSU and dozens of other major programs. Coleman was committed to the Aggies for nearly five months before they fired head coach Jimbo Fisher, and as a result, Coleman’s future position coach Dameyune Craig. He flipped his pledge from A&M to Auburn on December 1, 2023 — marking a massive recruiting win for Hugh Freeze.

To keep up with the latest players on the move, check out On3’s Transfer Portal wire. The On3 Transfer Portal Instagram account and Twitter account are excellent resources to stay up to date with the latest moves.

Texas is coming off a season where they just missed out on the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns finished 10-3 by beating Michigan 41-27 in the Citrus Bowl.

Led by QB Arch Manning’s second half of the season development, Texas got on a hot streak. That included a win over 11-0 Texas A&M to end the season. Coleman adds to a dynamic offensive approach under Steve Sarkisian next fall.





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Latest Georgia transfer rumors could lead to another Carson Beck level disaster

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3 hours ago

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January 12, 2026

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Georgia football suffered arguably the biggest loss in the Transfer Portal last offseason. Former UGA quarterback Carson Beck made the shocking decision this time last year to transfer to Miami, and that was something that no one saw coming.

Georgia ended up being fine without him as they went on to win the SEC, but losing Beck at the time was not fun.

Fast forward to this offseason and rumors are beginning to swirl of another departure that would be just as shocking and impactful as Beck.

Nate Frazier rumors are the last thing Georgia needs

One of Georgia’s best players this season was running back Nate Frazier. There were countless games where he put the team on his back and helped carry them to victory, and his success this past season has led to everyone at Georgia being excited for what’s to come next season.

Frazier however has not publicly announced that he will be back at Georgia next year and rumors are circulating that he could enter the Transfer Portal.

It’s impossible to state how big of a loss this would be for Georgia. Frazier finished the season just shy of 1,000 yards as he racked up 947 yards and six touchdowns on 173 carries. He also had dominant showings in a few games as well, most notably when he ran for 181 yards against Mississippi State. He was set to have an even bigger season next year as a junior, but that may not be occurring at Georgia anymore.

Frazier hasn’t entered the Transfer Portal yet, but it sounds like there is a chance he does. And if he does it Ohio State could be the team he lands with.

Kirby Smart and his staff have to do everything they can to keep Frazier in Athens. Georgia does have Chauncey Bowens who will return to their backfield for another season, but he can’t do it alone. He needs Frazier with him so Georgia can have one of the best running back duos in the country.

But there is a chance that doesn’t happen next season, and losing Frazier would feel a lot like losing Beck last year.



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Ty Simpson Reportedly Getting NIL Contract Offers After NFL Draft Decision, New Rumors on Alabama QB

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4 hours ago

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January 12, 2026

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Ty Simpson has declared for the 2026 NFL Draft, but that hasn’t curbed college football programs from trying to get the Alabama quarterback on their roster.

According to AL.com’s Nick Kelly, Simpson has been offered “a deal that could total $6.5 million” from one program, while three SEC teams have offered “at least $4 million and more.”

Simpson was the No. 26 overall player and No. 4 quarterback in the class of 2022, according to 247Sports’ composite rankings. He’s a bit of a rare breed in today’s college football landscape in the fact that he waited three years at Alabama before becoming the starter, rather than transferring somewhere else.

Simpson played behind Bryce Young in 2022 and Jalen Milroe in 2023 and 2024 before eventually landing the starting job in 2025. While he had a few shaky outings, he was one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC this year, throwing for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns and five interceptions

His final game with the Crimson Tide came in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against Indiana, where he threw for just 67 yards in a 38-3 blowout loss.

Bleacher Report’s NFL Scouting Department considers Simpson to be the No. 30 overall player and the No. 3 quarterback in this year’s draft class. In the latest mock draft from B/R, Simpson is projected to land with the Los Angeles Rams with the No. 13 pick.

While Simpson is widely projected to be a first-round pick, the NFL combine should give him a good idea of where he might land in April. Assuming he’s a consensus first-round pick, it’s hard to imagine Simpson will return to the collegiate level.

If he isn’t so confident about going in the first round, perhaps he’ll take one of the lucrative NIL offers he’s reportedly received.



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Tennessee football offered Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson $4 million

Published

5 hours ago

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January 12, 2026

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Jan. 11, 2026Updated Jan. 12, 2026, 1:12 a.m. ET



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