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NIL

The staggering NIL figure that transfer portal QBs are expected to cost

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If you thought the NIL transfer market in college football already was out of control, just wait until the upcoming battles next month for the top quarterbacks looking to switch schools.

ESPN college football insider Pete Thamel believes the dollar figures during the January cycle could be as much as $5 million for one season.

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“This market looks robust already, guys,” Thamel said Friday on College GameDay ahead of Alabama’s playoff win over Oklahoma. “You’ve got Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby at [the top], Nebraska’s Dylan Raiola, TCU’s Josh Hoover went in [this week], you have Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, Florida’s DJ Lagway.”

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) warms up before the game against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby (2) warms up before the game against the Utah Utes at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Rob Gray-Imagn Images

“So I made some calls today, guys, and sources told me the tip-top of this quarterback market, financially, could reach $5 million for one season. Look, it’s supply and demand. You have all those guys. Sorsby’s been linked early to Texas Tech. Dylan Raiola, there’s some smoke to Louisville, although maybe a [College Football Playoff] team jumps in late there. There have been early links between Indiana and Hoover, assuming that [Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza] goes pro.”

Thamel also noted that CFP programs such as Oregon and Miami are likely to be looking for a new quarterback for 2026, as well as LSU, with new coach Lane Kiffin looking to make a splash.

“Look, this is what’s going to drive the market,” Thamel said. “Oregon may lose [draft prospect] Dante Moore. Miami will be in the quarterback market again. So will LSU. So, when you really take a look at what could drive this quarterback market, it’s going to be the most expensive in the history of college football.”

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Thamel also pointed out that seven of the past nine Heisman winners landed at those schools through the transfer portal, including Mendoza, who moved from Cal to Indiana for this season.

The main transfer portal window is open from Jan. 2-16.



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NIL

Mailbag Call: So…Indiana? | Off Tackle Empire

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Is this the new normal? The new Bloomington? The new Big Ten?

Good afternoon, and happy Monday. Three-quarters of the MNW household are struggling with some form or residuals of the flu, and the other one is me. That, of course, has led to no resentment of the fact that I am healthy other than a little cough, no sir.

Indiana feels inevitable at this point, do they not? The Hoosiers have, through Curt Cignetti’s shrewd use of the transfer portal and quality coaching, turned college football completely on its ear.

Well, a deep-pocketed donor by any other name is…a deep-pocketed donor, still. Add to that Mark Cuban’s money for 2026? We might be dealing with the Hoosiers until Curt Cignetti gets bored.

Of course, there have been flashes in the pan before: the wisconsin Rose Bowls, the Peak Weather Machine years of Michigan State, that one time Minnesota won ten games or whatever—but it’s undeniable that none of those programs ever made a national championship and that none of them did it in the style that Indiana is doing it right now.

Watching Indiana do it—or, indeed, the entire SEC going belly-up in the postseason—is certainly cathartic. It’s better than the usual suspects doing it over and over again, and it’s at least more above-board than the standard SEC model of used car dealers buying themselves a championship. I take little solace in knowing that there’s less program-building, less connection to a campus, less-anything that feels “authentically” college football, but it’s incredibly possible that my feelings of “authenticity” always relied on a lie—the lie that it was possible to square “belonging” or “identity” of a college campus with athletes being fairly treated.

Congratulations, of course, to Indiana on their seemingly inevitable championship. It is truly exciting for the Hoosiers and their fans, as well as those coming back to football to join the thousand or so of their long-suffering brethren. Glad you’ve finally left the tailgate lots and headed in. Enjoy Miami.

Of course, you might have questions or comments about completely different things—basketball, wrestling, the best episode of Magic School Bus, the worst way to cook cod. We in the OTE Hive were recently discussing our careers as Quiz Bowl contestants (MNW, AlmaOtter, LPW), speech wannabes (LPW, Kind of…, Dead Read), or speech titans (BRT, Jesse, et al). Ask us what you’d like, and we’ll answer how we’d like.

This is a Mailbag call, and I hope you’ll treat it as such.



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Hollywood Smothers’ flip to Texas underscores Alabama’s NIL struggles, dwindling mystique

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Elite running back Hollywood Smothers flipped from Alabama to Texas in the 2026 college football transfer portal on Sunday, signaling deeper issues within the Crimson Tide program.

On the field, Alabama has fallen short of sustaining the elite standard set by Nick Saban, losing as many games in two seasons under Kalen DeBoer (eight) as it did across the previous five seasons under the seven-time national championship-winning coach.

Coaching deserves its fair share of blame for Alabama’s slight fall from grace, but deeper issues may lie within the Crimson Tide’s NIL operation, which has lagged behind many of its peers this cycle.

Alabama has lost six players ranked inside Cooper Petagna‘s top 100 of the college football transfer portal rankings this offseason, while adding just one: defensive lineman Devan Thompkins.

National college football and transfer portal analyst Chris Hummer went inside Alabama’s NIL struggles, offering insights into what’s gone wrong in Tuscaloosa and what the future may hold for one of college football’s most storied programs.

“A decade ago, Alabama could land everyone they wanted,” Hummer said on CBS Sports HQ. “They could be like a dragon sitting on a chest of gold. There’s nothing you could do about it.



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VCU’s Phil Martelli Jr. on the state of college sports amid NIL, transfer portal, conversations with dad

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Scarlet Knights Legend Leonte Carroo Sues Rutgers Over NIL Claims

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Rutgers football legend Leonte Carroo is suing Rutgers University over the use of his Name, Image, and Likeness from when he was playing in college, according to an article written by Brian Fonseca of Nj.com/NJAdvancedMedia. Carroo’s lawsuit claims that he is entitled to back payments for the money he generated for the university throughout his college career. The lawsuit values those figures between 2.8 and 3 million dollars.

Carroo and his team originally filed the lawsuit in October. In December, Rutgers countered and tried to have the lawsuit dismissed, arguing that the statute of limitations had long passed and that several courts from around the country had already unanimously denied the type of NIL claim that Carroo’s team is making. On January 9th, Carroo’s legal team filed a brief meant to argue that the university’s dismissal should be denied.

According to the article by Fonseca, Carroo’s team gave Rutgers a formal demand letter in June seeking compensation for the unauthorized use of his NIL. The university did not provide such compensation, which led to the lawsuit.

The House vs. NCAA settlement granted back payment to college athletes who were in school between June 2016 and 2024. Carroo’s playing at Rutgers career falls just outside that, as he played from 2012-2015. Carroo’s legal team is arguing that just because he falls outside the period given, it does not take away from the fact that Rutgers unjustly profited from his time as a player.

Carroo was one of the most well-known players at Rutgers while he was playing. He currently holds the receiving touchdowns record in school history by a wide margin, and he was one of the faces of the team when they first entered the Big Ten. Carroo and his legal team argue that some sort of compensation is in order for his level of stardom.

If the courts side with Carroo in this case, it has the potential to open up a whole can of worms across college athletics. It would lay the groundwork and encourage other former athletes from other schools to sue their own school for the same reason. Similar cases to this, including players from other college programs, have been dismissed or denied already across the board. It remains to be seen what will come of this lawsuit in particular.

A link to the original article by Fonseca can be found here.



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Big Ten vs. SEC: Josh Pate explains where college football supremacy currently sits

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The great debate regarding which conference — the Big Ten or the SEC — reigns over college football might not be much of a debate anymore. Especially given the SEC’s dismal 4-10 bowl record this offseason.

That bowl record looks even worse in games between the SEC and other Power Four teams, with the Southeastern Conference finishing the 2025-26 bowl season a combined 1-8 versus the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. That includes a winless 0-4 mark against the ACC and a 1-3 record vs. the Big Ten, which has won the last two CFP national championships and will play for a third when No. 1 Indiana takes on No. 10 Miami in next Monday’s College Football Playoff national title game.

In fact, following No. 6 Ole Miss‘ 31-27 loss to the Hurricanes in last Thursday’s Fiesta Bowl CFP semifinal, the SEC — winners of 13 national titles in 17 years between 2006-22 — was shut out of playing for a third consecutive national championship game, something it hasn’t experienced since 2000-02.

Those struggles have led college football fans and pundits alike to effectively dance on the grave of the once-dominant conference. College football analyst Josh Pate joined the fray on Sunday’s episode of Josh Pate’s College Football Show, making it clear he’s been off the SEC gravy train for awhile now.

“The SEC is lagging behind the Big Ten, at the top, (and) I would even venture to suggest the middle-tier now is at least comparable if not slightly lagging behind,” Pate said Sunday night. “That’s probably where my perception has changed of late, moreso than at the top. So I’m not beating that drum.”

Pate then preceeded to break down all the ways the SEC ultimately lost its crown as King of College Football to the Big Ten, including his perception Big Ten “culture” is just more focused on football, as opposed to SEC’s perceived focus on the pomp and circumstance of the sport.

“Maybe the average Big Ten player is wired a little bit differently, maybe they focus a little more on the football aspect, the mean-and-potatoes aspect of football, instead of the more highlight-ish, branding aspect of football,” Pate added. “I think there’s something to that.”

From there, Pate addressed how the advent of NIL and the NCAA Transfer Portal has leveled the playing field from a talent perspective. In fact, Pate suggested the SEC became so spoiled by its multi-decade talent advantage, effectively drunk off its own supply, that it didn’t do what was necessary to maintain it. That ultimately resulted in what Pate described as “lazy practices” like prioritizing recruiting over coaching and player development, including a tendency to fill out their football staffs based on the agency they were associated with rather than the most-qualified candidates.

“If you think that’s ridiculous, it’s because it is,” Pate concluded. “But that’s been standard practice in the SEC for awhile. And I don’t find it to be the case in the Big Ten.”

And while the SEC could certainly return to glory by this time next year, at least for forseable future, college football fans in the South will suffer through more gloating from their neighbors to the North.



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Urban Meyer predicts winner of college football national championship

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Indiana (No. 1) crushed No. 5 Oregon 56–22 in the Peach Bowl semifinal, forcing multiple first-half turnovers, dominating in all three phases, and improving to 15–0.

Miami (No. 10) survived a 31–27 Fiesta Bowl win over No. 6 Ole Miss, with quarterback Carson Beck’s late 3-yard scramble sealing the outcome after earlier College Football Playoff victories over Texas A&M and defending national champion Ohio State.

Miami’s College Football Playoff berth carried nearly as much drama as its postseason run. 

Both the Hurricanes and Notre Dame finished the regular season 10–2, but despite ranking ahead of Miami for much of the year, the Irish were left out of the field, in large part because of Miami’s head-to-head win earlier in the season.

The decision sparked national debate about CFP criteria and the weight of head-to-head results.

Since then, Miami has done nothing but validate the committee’s call, advancing to the national title game, now just one win away.

The CFP national championship is set for January 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, pitting Indiana against Miami.

On Monday’s episode of “The Triple Option” podcast, former head coach Urban Meyer praised Indiana’s coaching, offensive line, and efficiency on film, ultimately picking the Hoosiers to win the title.

“I think Indiana wins by 9,” Meyer said. “I think Vegas is right on the point spread, but I think Miami plays their [expletive] off at home.”

 Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) raises the trophy.

Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) with quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15), wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13), and Indiana Hoosiers defensive lineman Daniel Ndukwe (17) | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Indiana powered an unblemished run under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, transforming a 3–9 program into Big Ten champions.

The Hoosiers stacked signature road wins over Iowa, Oregon, and Penn State, dismantled Alabama 38–3 in the quarterfinals, and overwhelmed the Ducks again in the Peach Bowl semifinal.

Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza has driven a balanced, physical attack that has dominated all season, throwing for 3,349 yards and 41 touchdowns while adding 284 rushing yards, six scores, and a 73% completion rate across 15 games.

Miami’s path has been far different, as the No. 10 seed fought through adversity to reach 13–2, upsetting Ohio State, beating Texas A&M, and edging Ole Miss 31–27 behind an elite scoring defense allowing just 14.0 points per game, the fifth-fewest nationally.

Indiana enters as the consensus favorite, listed by most sportsbooks as 8.5-point favorites with a 48.5-point total.

With Indiana’s balanced attack facing Miami’s opportunistic defense, the matchup likely hinges on tempo: the Hoosiers aim to dictate the pace while the Hurricanes seek pressure and takeaways.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Read More at College Football HQ

  • $2 million QB has yet to take any transfer portal visits amid uncertainty

  • College football team loses 29 players to transfer portal

  • First-team All-conference player announces transfer portal decision

  • No. 1 transfer portal player visits fourth college football program



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