After another thrilling finish at Talladega, the NASCAR Cup Series will head to Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the 2025 Wurth 400. Chase Elliott broke a 42-race winless streak, his longest since earning his first win as a 22-year-old in 2018, with a win at Texas last season and now he’ll look to end a 37-race winless streak on Sunday. He’s +2000 in the latest 2025 Wurth 400 odds, while teammates Kyle Larson and William Byron are the NASCAR favorites at +500 and +600, respectively. Meanwhile, despite a win last week in Talladega, you can get Austin Cindric for as high as +300 to finish top 10 in the latest NASCAR at Texas props from DraftKings Sportsbook.

The green flag drops at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday and the race is scheduled for 167 laps around the 1.5-mile quad-oval. Before entering any 2025 Wurth 400 picks, NASCAR DFS lineups on sites like DraftKings and FanDuel, or locking in NASCAR props on sites like PrizePicks, Sleeper Fantasy, and Underdog Fantasy, be sure to see the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas predictions from SportsLine’s proven projection model.

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.

The model began its 2025 season by calling Chase Elliott to win for a +300 payout at the Clash at Bowman Gray and was also high on Byron as a +2000 longshot at Daytona. Then it predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout. In 2024, it nailed Larson to win in Las Vegas for a 21-5 sports betting payout and predicted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol at 5-1 and Richmond at 17-4.

It also impressively nailed five of Larson’s wins during his historic season in 2021. All told, the model has nailed a whopping 20 winners since 2021, including nine in 2023 and three in the first seven races last season. Anyone who followed its lead on betting apps and sportsbooks on those NASCAR picks could have seen huge returns.

Now, the model simulated the Wurth 400 2025 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Texas leaderboard.

Top 2025 Wurth 400 predictions

For the 2025 Wurth 400, we can tell you the model is high on Chase Briscoe, even though he’s a +2200 longshot in the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas odds. After moving from Stewart Haas Racing to Joe Gibbs Racing this offseason, Briscoe has won a pole and piled up three top-five finishes over the first 10 races of the season. That includes a fourth-place finish at Homestead-Miami, another 1.5-mile oval and his most recent speedway test since switching to Toyota from Ford.

Briscoe has also been incredibly consistent at Texas Motor Speedway, finishing top 15 in all four of his NASCAR Cup Series races there and finishing fifth, 10th and sixth there over the last three seasons. His Toyota teammates have piled up five wins already this season and he’ll be itching to get on the board on a track that he’s had a lot of success. He’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday, and it’s Caesars offering the best price on Briscoe to win with DraftKings pricing him as low as +1400.

The model has also revealed a shocking NASCAR prop for Sunday: Ryan Blaney finishes top five for a +130 payout at the 1.5-mile speedway. The 2023 NASCAR Cup Series champion and last year’s runner-up dropped to eighth in this year’s NASCAR standings after getting caught up in Talladega’s craziness early and finishing 37th. However, he was top five in each of his two previous starts at Bristol and Darlington and he’s looked like the best speedway racer in the NASCAR Cup Series thus far despite some bad luck.

He won the pole in Atlanta and went on to finish fourth and then led 124 laps in Miami before engine failure ended his day prematurely. That’s why the model likes adding him to your NASCAR at Texas prop bets or to spice up your NASCAR parlays this week. This time around, it’s DraftKings offering the best price on Blaney top-five finish. See which other drivers to avoid and the rest of the projected NASCAR leaderboard at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 NASCAR at Texas picks

The model is also targeting three other drivers with Texas NASCAR odds of 14-1 or longer to make a serious run at the checkered flag. Anyone who backs these drivers could hit it big. You can see all of the model’s NASCAR picks, props, and projected leaderboard over at SportsLine.

So who wins the NASCAR Wurth 400 2025, and which longshots are must-backs? Check out the latest 2025 NASCAR at Texas odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full NASCAR Texas projected leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 20 winners, and find out.

2025 NASCAR Texas odds, drivers, lineup

See the full NASCAR at Texas picks at SportsLine

Kyle Larson +500
William Byron +600
Tyler Reddick +750
Denny Hamlin +800
Christopher Bell +800
Ryan Blaney +900
Joey Logano +1400
Chase Briscoe +1400
Kyle Busch +1600
Bubba Wallace +1800
Chase Elliott +2000
Alex Bowman +2200
Ty Gibbs +2500
Ross Chastain +2800
Josh Berry +3000
Chris Buescher +3000
Brad Keselowski +3500
Daniel Suarez +4000
Carson Hocevar +7000
Austin Cindric +8000
Ryan Preece +9000
Noah Gragson +9000
Erik Jones +9000
Austin Dillon +10000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Michael McDowell +13000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
Zane Smith +15000
Justin Haley +20000
John Hunter Nemechek +20000
Jesse Love +20000
Todd Gilliland +20000
Riley Herbst +30000
Cody Ware +30000
Cole Custer +30000
Ty Dillon +30000
Chad Finchum +30000
Shane Van Gisbergen +30000

During Race weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, organ, eye and tissue donation champions and their families will celebrate the 20th Anniversary of Donate Life Texas, as well as honor an organ recipient, living organ donor and 2 donor heroes on Joey Gase’s #35 NASCAR XFINITY Series car that he will drive in the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 at Texas Motor Speedway on Saturday, May 3rd.

“We are honored to partner with Joey Gase upon his return to Texas and wanted to bring some NASCAR excitement to our 20th anniversary of saving lives in Texas to celebrate the lifesaving gift of organ, eye, and tissue donation,” said Chad G. Carroll, Executive Director of Donate Life Texas. “Just over 10,000 Texans are awaiting a lifesaving transplant while nearly 35% of Texans still are not registered as a potential donor – so the need for Texans to register is still great,” he said.

Gase developed a passion for educating others on the need of organ, tissue, and eye donation after tragically losing his mother, Mary, to a sudden brain aneurysm. Gase and his family decided to donate his mother’s organs and later learned that her gift helped save and improve the lives of 66 people.

Christie Brazil, became a cornea donor hero in August 2011 and introduced the gift of registering as an organ donor to her family, and her brother Charles Brazil Jr. who became an organ tissue donor hero after losing his life in May 2021 tragically. “I am the youngest of three siblings, left to carry the memories and legacies of my older brother and sister, Christie and my brother Charles, who both left this world far too soon. Through their selflessness, I came to understand the incredible power of organ donation—an understanding I hope to pass on to others,” her sister Larenda said. Both of her siblings will be honored on the NASCAR and at this year’s race.

Dorothy Delarosa, a lung recipient and Becky Gustamante, a living kidney donor, will also be honored on #35 Donate Life Texas Xfinity Nascar as it speeds around Texas Motor Speedway.

Becoming a registered donor is easy and can have a tremendous impact. One donor can help save 8 lives and improve the lives of more than 75 people with organ, eye, and tissue donation. Most Texans say ‘yes’ at their local driver license office. However, signing up is also fast and easy at www.DonateLifeTexas.org and provides a way for individuals to make their decision to be an organ, eye and tissue donor known.

Friday, May 2, 2025 – Donate Life Texas / Joey Gase Organ, Eye, and Tissue “Handprints for Hope” Livestream Ceremony on Donate Life Texas Facebook social media on Friday 5/2/25 at 11:30 AM

Saturday, May 3, 2025 at 11:00 AM Meet & Greet and Photo Op with #35 NASCAR driver, Joey Gase and honorees and their families at Texas Motor Speedway Donate Life Texas vendor booth.

Transplant recipients, donor family members, healthcare professionals, donation advocates, general public are all invited to help celebrate.

Joey Gase PR

(All times Eastern)

Schedule subject to change and/or blackouts

Sunday, May 4

AUTO RACING

10 a.m.

FS1 — NTT IndyCar Series: Warmup, Barber Motorsports Park, Birmingham, Ala.

11:30 a.m.

FS1 — NXT IndyCar Series: Grand Prix of Alabama, Barber Motorsports Park, Birmingham, Ala.

Noon

CBS — ABB Formula E: The Monaco E-Prix – Round 6, Monaco

1:30 p.m.

FOX — NTT IndyCar Series: The Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix, Barber Motorsports Park, Birmingham, Ala.

2 p.m.

CBSSN — FIM Motocross: The MX2, Agueda, Portugal (Taped)

2:30 p.m.

ABC — Formula 1: The Crypto.com Miami Grand Prix, Miami International Autodrome, Miami

3 p.m.

CBSSN — FIM Motocross: The MXGP, Agueda, Portugal (Taped)

3:30 p.m.

FS1 — NASCAR Cup Series: The Wurth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY, Texas Motor Speedway, Fort Worth, Texas

4 p.m.

NBC — AMA Monster Energy Supercross Championship: Round 16, Denver (Taped)

BASKETBALL AFRICA LEAGUE

10:30 a.m.

NBATV — Petro de Luanda vs. Kriol Star, Diamniadio, Senegal

BEACH SOCCER (MEN’S)

6:50 a.m.

FS2 — 2025 FIFA World Cup Group Stage: Oman vs. El Salvador, Group D, Victoria, Mahe

8:20 a.m.

FS2 — 2025 FIFA World Cup Group Stage: Tahiti vs. Senegal, Group C, Victoria, Mahe

10:50 a.m.

FS2 — 2025 FIFA World Cup Group Stage: Brazil vs. Italy, Group D, Victoria, Mahe

5:30 p.m.

FS2 — 2025 FIFA World Cup Group Stage: Spain vs. Chile, Group C, Victoria, Mahe (Taped)

BOXING

10 p.m.

ESPN — Top Rank Main Card: Naoya Inoue vs. Ramon Cardenas (Junior Featherweights), Las Vegas

COLLEGE BASEBALL

1 p.m.

SECN — Kentucky at Mississippi St.

4 p.m.

SECN — Alabama at Vanderbilt

COLLEGE BEACH VOLLEYBALL (WOMEN’S)

10:30 a.m.

ESPN — NCAA Tournament: TBD, Championship, Gulf Shores, Ala.

COLLEGE LACROSSE (MEN’S)

11:30 a.m.

CBSSN — Patriot League Tournament: Colgate vs. Boston U., Championship, West Point, N.Y.

Noon

ACCN — Atlantic Coast Tournament: Syracuse vs. Duke, Championship, Charlotte, N.C.

1 p.m.

ESPN2 — Ivy League Tournament: Princeton vs. Cornell, Championship, Ithaca, N.Y.

9:30 p.m.

ESPNU — NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Selection Special

COLLEGE LACROSSE (WOMEN’S)

11 a.m.

ESPNU — Metro Atlantic Tournament: Iona vs. Fairfield, Championship, Emmitsburg, Md.

9 p.m.

ESPNU — NCAA Women’s Lacrosse Selection Special

COLLEGE SOFTBALL

Noon

BTN — Maryland at Nebraska

2 p.m.

ACCN — Stanford at Boston College

BTN — Northwestern at UCLA

4 p.m.

ACCN — Florida St. at Virginia Tech

BTN — Michigan St. at Oregon

7 p.m.

ACCN — Louisville at Pittsburgh

GOLF

1 p.m.

GOLF — PGA Tour: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Final Round, TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas

3 p.m.

CBS — PGA Tour: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, Final Round, TPC Craig Ranch, McKinney, Texas

GOLF — PGA Tour Champions: The Insperity Invitational, Final Round, The Woodlands Country Club, The Woodlands, Texas

6 p.m.

GOLF — LPGA Tour: The Black Desert Championship, Final Round, Black Desert Golf Course, Ivins, Utah

HORSE RACING

1 p.m.

FS2 — NYRA: America’s Day at the Races

MLB BASEBALL

1:30 p.m.

MLBN — Regional Coverage: Kansas City at Baltimore (1:35 p.m.) OR Minnesota at Boston (1:35 p.m.)

4:30 p.m.

MLBN — Regional Coverage: Washington at Cincinnati (4:10 p.m.) OR Detroit a L.A. Angels (4:05 p.m.)

7 p.m.

ESPN — L.A. Dodgers at Atlanta

NBA BASKETBALL

6 p.m.

TNT — Eastern Conference Semifinal: Indiana at Cleveland, Game 1

TRUTV — Eastern Conference Semifinal: Indiana at Cleveland, Game 1

8:30 p.m.

TNT — Western Conference First Round Playoff: Golden State at Houston, Game 7

TRUTV — Western Conference First Round Playoff: Golden State at Houston, Game 7

NHL HOCKEY

7 p.m.

TBS — Western Conference First Round Playoff: St. Louis at Winnipeg, Game 7

SOCCER (MEN’S)

6:55 a.m.

CBSSN — SPFL: Celtic at Rangers

9 a.m.

CBSSN — Serie A: Atalanta at Monza

USA — English Premier League: Newcastle United at Brighton & Hove Albion

7 p.m.

CBSSN — USL Championship: Sacramento at Oakland

SOCCER (WOMEN’S)

1 p.m.

CBS — NWSL: Chicago at NJ/NY

SWIMMING

9 p.m.

CNBC — TYR: Pro Swim Series, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (Taped)

10:30 p.m.

CNBC — TYR: Pro Swim Series, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (Taped)

2:30 p.m.

NBC — TYR: Pro Swim Series, Fort Lauderdale, Fla. (Taped)

TENNIS

9:30 a.m.

TENNIS — Madrid-WTA Doubles Final

12:30 p.m.

TENNIS — Madrid-ATP Singles Final

TRACK AND FIELD

3 p.m.

CW — Grand Slam Track: Day 3, Miami

UFL FOOTBALL

Noon

ESPN2 — D.C. at Michigan

4 p.m.

FOX — San Antonio at Birmingham

VOLLEYBALL (WOMEN’S)

9 p.m.

CBSSN — Pro Volleyball Federation: Columbus at Vegas

WNBA BASKETBALL

4 p.m.

ESPN2 — Preseason: Brazil National Team at Indiana

_____

The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by
Data Skrive
TV listings provided by
LiveSportsOnTV
.

This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.

Andy’s Frozen Custard 300

Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Texas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 200

Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 Preview

Austin Hill and Jesse Love were pretty easy to identify as the favorites heading into Talladega last weekend, and they went on to combine to lead 69 of the 113 laps, with Hill ultimately taking the checkered flag. This week should be a bit more wide open as we head back to an intermediate track at Texas, though Kyle Larson is back in the field as a replacement for the injured Connor Zilisch. It will mark his third appearance in the series this season.

Key Stats at Texas Motor Speedway

• Number of races: 47
• Winners from pole: 6
• Winners from top-five starters: 27
• Winners from top-10 starters: 37
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 3

Last 10 Winners at Texas Motor Speedway

2024 – Sam Mayer
2023- John Hunter Nemechek
2022 fall- Noah Gragson
2022 spring – Tyler Reddick
2021 fall- John Hunter Nemechek 
2021 spring – Kyle Busch 
2020 fall – Harrison Burton
2020 spring – Austin Cindric 
2019 fall – Christopher Bell 
2019 spring – Kyle Busch

Texas Motor Speedway is a traditional intermediate track. The primary unique factor is the banking, which is 20 degrees in turns 1 and 2 and 24 degrees in turns 3 and 4. That can make setup and handling a unique challenge.

The long-term statistics suggest that poor qualifying can be overcome and the recent track history is a mixed bag. Five of the 10 most recent race winners have started in the top five. On the other hand, the other five started 10th or worse.

Toyota and Chevy have dominated the track historically. Toyota has won six of the last 10 races, but Chevy has won three of the last four. Overall, manufacturer probably shouldn’t influence build much, if at all.

RotoWire NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Tools

NASCAR Lineup Optimizer

NASCAR Projections

DraftKings Value Picks for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 DraftKings Values

Kyle Larson – $12,500
Justin Allgaier – $11,000
Sam Mayer- $10,500

Tier 2 DraftKings Values

Brandon Jones – $9,600
Sammy Smith – $9,000
Carson Kvapil – $8,800
Ryan Sieg- $8,600
Taylor Gray – $8,400
Nick Sanchez – $8,300

Tier 3 DraftKings Values

Harrison Burton – $7,900
Daniel Dye – $7,600
Dean Thompson-$7,400
Jeb Burton – $7,000

Tier 4 DraftKings Values

Brennan Poole – $6,400

NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Picks for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300

Justin Allgaier– $11,000
Sammy Smith – $9,000
Carson Kvapil – $8,800
Daniel Dye – $7,600
Jeb Burton– $7,000
Brennan Poole – $6,400

As has been the case when Larson is in the Xfinity field, the immediate decision is whether to build through him or an elite full-time driver in the series. This time around, two things point me in the direction of the latter path. First is that Larson qualified only 20th. Second, Allgaier has finished inside the top five in three of his last four races at Texas and has led an impressive 283 laps in that span.

There area lot of viable options from the low $8,000 range to mid $9,000s, and there’s a pretty good case to roster each. My priority in the group is Smith. He hasn’t qualified particularly well at the track and that continued this weekend, as he’ll start 23rd on the grid. However, he’s also showcased the ability to move up through the field for solid finishes, which should lead to a pile of DK points.

Tier 3 also offers a number of good values. Both Burton’s and Dye stand out as my favorite targets.  Jeb and Harrison qualified fourth and fifth, respectively, and both have performed very well in recent races. Meanwhile, Dye has at least 32 DK points in four of his last five races and offers the fifth-highest point-per-dollar projection on our optimizer.

Poole is the ideal punt play of the weekend. He’s averaged 33.2 DK points per race and has at least 40 DK points in three of his last five races.

NASCAR Xfinity Series Best Bets for the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 3:00 AM ET Saturday

Race Winner – Justin Allgaier +400, Sam Mayer +900, Jesse Love +1400, Carson Kvapil +1800

The only offering on some of the bigger books is outright winner, though that could change by Saturday morning. As things stand, we have to balance price and historical trends. Starting inside the top five is an advantage anywhere, but it has historically been quite powerful at Texas. That points to Allgaier as a chalky pick, but also introduces Love as a potential darkhorse. He started his only race at the track on pole last year and qualified well once again. Perhaps a year of experience will help him convert that track position into a better result.

In the last few years, starting inside the top 15 has been enough to lead to race wins. The last winner we saw starting from outside the top 20 was Kyle Busch in 2008. That makes Larson a particularly tough bet at -140 and also casts doubt on otherwise solid options such as Brandon Jones.

Mapping out your wagers for the Xfinity Series race? Check out the latest Sportsbook Promo Codes to get special offers and make the most of your bets.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it’s possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91
DraftKings: dmarcus87.