Since the NCAA allowed athletes to cash in on NIL (name, image, and likeness), the number of basketball players declaring early for the NBA draft has steadily declined. In 2021, 363 players—including international players and NCAA athletes—entered their names. This year, the total has dropped to 106 players, the fewest since 2016. Fifty-one “non-international” players have since opted out, leaving just 32 non-international players in the draft.

The opportunity to earn money in college gives players leverage they’ve never had before when negotiating with NBA teams. Agents are advising many players to remain in college due to the NIL earnings—and new revenue-sharing dollars from the House v. NCAA settlement—two agents tell Front Office Sports. 

“If you are not a guaranteed first-round pick, top-20, top-30 guy—unless you really do not want to play college basketball anymore, we are recommending and most of them are staying in school as long as they possibly can,” Michael Raymond, president and founder of Raymond Representation, tells FOS. 

For those with little to no chance of making an NBA roster, the calculus is obvious. But even for players on the bubble of being a first-round pick, eschewing the draft is often the best option. 

In the pre-NIL era, players would be happy to settle for two-way contracts, or Exhibit 10s, with no guarantee they’d be chosen in the second round. NBA two-way contracts max out around $600,000, and straight G League deals start at around $40,500. They weren’t making any money in college, and the allure of professional life was just too great.

But now, the NIL earnings are more than enough of a fallback in case they aren’t getting drafted. To remain competitive, a power conference program would have had to spend about $3 million to $4 million in aggregate to remain competitive, a source previously told FOS. That’s an average of a healthy six figures for each of the 13 scholarship players. And the top players in the country, often those vying for these NBA roster spots, are often making seven figures. The freedom of movement provided by the transfer portal allows athletes to negotiate for more earnings, too.

“Unless [an NBA team] was willing to guarantee a spot, there’s no way that I’m playing with the kid’s future,” Alex Saratsis, Octagon’s co-managing director of basketball, tells FOS. 

This past spring, UAB forward Yaxel Lendeborg was dubbed one of the best big men available in the NCAA transfer portal. He committed to Michigan, a power conference program with major resources, while also declaring for the NBA draft, where he was projected to be a late first-round pick. He ultimately withdrew from the draft at the end of May, and he will play his last year in college for the Wolverines.

Bob Donnan/Imagn Images

Lendeborg, who signed with Octagon a few weeks before deciding to stay in Ann Arbor, wasn’t the only one Saratsis represents who made that decision. Notre Dame’s Markus Burton decided not to enter the draft at all and play another year with the Fighting Irish. Greek player Neoklis Avdalas reportedly received a second-round grade after entering the draft and opted to withdraw and commit to Virginia Tech.

“Why would we [advise them to declare] when they’ve got an opportunity to make millions of dollars back in college, continue to prove their game, and take control back in their careers?” Saratsis says.

No decision is without risk, of course. A player who stays in school or transfers could lower their draft stock with an unimpressive season, Raymond says. They could also incur a season-ending, or even career-ending, injury. But the prevailing wisdom is to keep players in school for as long as possible.

That doesn’t mean that one-and-dones are going completely extinct, however. 

For a select few players, there’s a clear reason to enter the draft after just one year in the NCAA. Cooper Flagg is the No. 1 projected overall draft pick, slated to go to the Dallas Mavericks, after a sensational freshman year at Duke that ended with a heartbreaking loss to Houston in the Final Four. Flagg was likely making millions of dollars between Duke’s nebulous NIL collective and multiple top-tier brand endorsements. But in his first year in the NBA, he’ll earn about $14 million in his NBA salary alone—on top of all his existing endorsements. 

“I think there’s going to be at least five to ten players that probably just say, ‘Listen, at the end of the day, I’m going top 10. I’m going to make millions of dollars. I want to play in the NBA,’” Raymond says.

Outside the obvious lottery picks, some players just “really care about the professional lifestyle,” Raymond says. “They don’t care about the money. It’s more about, like, their dreams to play in the NBA. They want to make it happen as soon as possible.” He points to Bronny James, who wanted to play alongside his dad in Los Angeles, as an example.

But those players will continue to be outliers. This year, schools will be able to pay players directly thanks to the House v. NCAA settlement in addition to NIL. Some have raised concerns that, because there’s a cap on the revenue-sharing pool and new restrictions on NIL collective deals, players might end up making less than they did last year (though not everyone agrees that that would be the case). Either way, it will still pay to stay in college—both literally and figuratively.

Says Saratsis: “It’s almost like you’re taking control of your career.” 

Even though the Indiana Pacers kept their season alive with an impressive 108-91 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, Tyrese Haliburton knows it won’t matter if they lose the next game.

Speaking to reporters after Thursday’s victory, Haliburton explained “nothing that’s happened before matters” if the Pacers don’t win Game 7.

“We’ve got one game,” Haliburton said. “One game. Nothing that’s happened before matters. And nothing that’s going to happen after matters.”

Haliburton went on to say that being part of a Game 7 in the NBA Finals is something he’s “dreamed of” for his entire life (starts at 6:35 mark).

One thing Haliburton won’t be doing in the lead up to Game 7 is following online talking points to avoid the “poison” narratives that could bubble up.

“The next couple of days, the narratives are going to be almost poison,” said Haliburton.

Pacers vibes have been all over the place for the past week. The blown lead at home in Game 4 and tough loss in Game 5 could have signaled an end to his magical run.

Those losses were compounded by Haliburton suffering a calf injury in the first quarter of Game 5 that impacted his performance with just four points on 0-of-6 shooting from the field.

Haliburton was able to start Game 6 after going through pregame workouts. He was a game-high plus-25 in just 23 minutes, scoring 14 points and dishing out five assists.

The Pacers had six players score at least 10 points and their defense forced the Thunder to commit 21 turnovers to earn the win. They are now one win away from the franchise’s first NBA championship.

This will be the first Game 7 in the Finals since 2016 when the Cleveland Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors. The Pacers and Thunder will play their winner-take-all game at Paycom Center on Sunday at 8 p.m. ET.

The House vs. NCAA settlement, approved on June 6, 2025, has reshaped college athletics with direct athlete compensation and much stricter name, image, and likeness (NIL) rules. In his June 18 Athletic Mailbag, Stewart Mandel shared his thoughts about whether this $20.5 million revenue-sharing cap will replace or supplement existing NIL deals.

His analysis explained why the settlement’s attempt to curb NIL money is unlikely to succeed, casting doubt on its long-term impact.

College Football Experts Share Thoughts on Revenue Sharing vs NIL Collectives

Mandel noted that most schools’ collectives fall short of the $20.5 million cap, making revenue sharing the primary compensation method for many. However, for top-tier programs, things are different. Administrators, including Florida basketball coach Todd Golden and Ohio State AD Ross Bjork, claimed the NIL Go clearinghouse, operated by Deloitte, will slash outside deals.

South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers rejected tempting transfer offers, the college football star’s father says
The advent of name, image, and likeness (NIL) has significantly altered the college sports

— Landrover defender (@Landroverdefen9) June 20, 2025

Golden predicted players could earn just “10 to 20 percent” of their recent NIL hauls, while Bjork called collectives a “false market,” which will be similar to pro sports’ smaller NIL deals.

Legal and Practical Hurdles

Mandel argued that the settlement’s two-part restriction of capping school payments at $20.5 million and requiring NIL deals over $600 to be approved for “valid business purpose” and fair-market value will face legal issues.

Over the past decade, courts, including the U.S. Supreme Court, have deemed NCAA restrictions on athlete earnings illegal restraints of trade. Mandel pointed to Texas Tech’s $55 million in NIL commitments, confirmed by booster Cody Campbell, as evidence that schools may exceed the cap.

“Either their payroll is going down by more than 60 percent a year from now, or a judge will have issued an injunction,” he wrote.

Answering one of the reader’s questions, who asked about penalties for improper NIL deals under the College Sports Commission (CSC), led by CEO Bryan Seeley, Mandel wrote that no specifics have emerged about the “substantive” and “severe” penalties that were promised.

Another reader suggested the settlement paves the way for a salary cap, but Mandel countered that this cap, unnegotiated with players, is “legally dubious.” The CSC’s attempt to control the NIL landscape through Deloitte’s oversight assumes compliance that may never become a reality.

With schools like Texas Tech already pushing past the cap, Mandel predicted legal challenges will preserve NIL money’s prominence. The settlement may shift compensation structures, but as Mandel sees it, the lucrative NIL market is far from dead.