WHEN I FIRST started in broadcasting, I was called a “color commentator.” My job was to break down players and teams and tell you why they were good, and to break down game matchups and tell you what to watch for and which factors will determine the outcome. Back then, we’d create a preseason top 20, attempting to tell you which teams and players will be best. Once in a while, we would be asked for a prediction, but it wasn’t the dominant theme.
At some point, I became a “basketball analyst,” which sounds profoundly snobbish. Suddenly, we were asked to pick winners of each game, which was counterintuitive to my sensibilities. After all, if I knew who was going to win, why wouldn’t I just go to Las Vegas and sit by the pool with a drink in my hand and rake in the winnings? Of course we don’t know who was going to win. Sure, we can point to matchups and factors upon which the game will be decided, but nobody knows.
That said, fans get worked up over analysts’ picks — which is why our bosses insist we make them. I do one bracket every year, and after I make my picks on Selection Sunday — in an article in which I pick every men’s NCAA tournament game for your pleasure and my pain — I don’t think about them again. I am more interested in the play on the floor. But nobody lets us forget those picks, despite the meaninglessness of them all.
This year, I had a dilemma. When I looked at the paths of each No. 1 seed, I really liked the one each had. But what would be the chances that all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four? Since seeding began in 1979, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four only once, in 2008 — in San Antonio. That year, I found myself in the same predicament: I looked at the path of each No. 1 seed and liked each independently. When filling out the bracket, I had all four advancing to San Antonio. And in the end, all four did make it. This year, the feat was accomplished for only the second time. My overall record of games picked in my article is 45-15, including the correct Final Four in San Antonio. And notwithstanding my picks or yours, this Final Four is historic, but it is not unprecedented.
It might not be as splashy; I got a tremendous amount of guff for my picks in 2008 and again this year. But there’s something to remember: While the NCAA tournament is a spectacle, it also is the national championship. And we’re lucky enough to have the four best teams from the season fighting it out near the Alamo for the trophy and to cut the nets down.
This Final Four is absolutely incredible. These four squads are the top four teams in the KenPom efficiency ratings (the most digestible analytics for fans) and have a combined record of 135-16. All four teams are rated in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is amazing and unusual. Better still, these four teams are each among the top 10 most efficient in the history of KenPom ratings, available since 1997. Duke is No. 2 all time, Houston No. 6, Florida No. 8 and Auburn No. 10. That is all time.
Every season and every NCAA tournament is different, which is one of the beautiful things about the event. Two years ago, San Diego State and Florida Atlantic reached the Final Four, and the overarching narrative was that NIL and the transfer portal had flattened the Earth, that talent would be more spread out and the reign of the major conferences could be over. This year, upsets were not as prevalent, and all 16 teams in the Sweet 16 were from four major conferences (seven from the SEC, four from the Big Ten, four from the Big 12 and one from the ACC). Now, it was said, the transfer portal and NIL have killed mid-majors, who are just organ donors for the major conferences.
Of course, neither is true. One data point does not make a trend, and this is just one year. Two years ago, this year’s Sweet 16 would have represented seven conferences, with Houston in the American, BYU in the West Coast Conference and Arizona in the Pac-12. Would that make everyone feel better?
As the games approach, it’s time to forget the discourse — and, yes, the picks — and focus on the basketball that’s in store. These four teams — all-time greats — had to earn their way here and did. The competition among them will be delicious, and I cannot wait to see it.
How they got here: The Gators played a solid nonconference schedule but not a powerful one. But the bottom line is that Florida has not lost a game against a team outside of the SEC this season. Todd Golden has the deepest team at the Final Four, and no team was playing better basketball as the NCAA tournament started than the Gators. Golden has a quartet of guards that is easily the equal of any in the nation, led by first-team All-American Walter Clayton Jr., as capable a bucket getter as there is in the college game. Clayton, who played for Rick Pitino at Iona and was a big-time football recruit out of high school, is the one guy who can break off a play and create his own shot, and he has done so against UConn and Texas Tech. Without Clayton, Florida would not be here right now. Florida also has outstanding big men who are skilled passers, ball handlers and offensive rebounders; they seal off help defenders as well as any bigs in the country, opening up driving lanes to the rim where a shot blocker cannot get to.
Separating factor: Offensive rebounding and turnovers. Florida is the best offensive rebounding team of this Final Four, corralling 39% of its misses for high-percentage second-chance opportunities, including kickout 3-point shots. The biggest flaw? The Gators have a tendency to turn it over a bit more than the other three No. 1 seeds, ranking fourth among these teams in turnover percentage. If Florida takes care of the ball and gets a shot down every time, the Gators’ efficiency shoots way up.
One player to watch: Will Richard. The transfer guard from Belmont is an outstanding rebounder, perimeter shooter and help defender. With Clayton drawing so much attention, Richard can be a difference-maker.
How they got here: No team played a tougher schedule than Auburn, and none won more quality games throughout the regular season. The Tigers have some similarities to Florida regarding depth of talent, and Auburn has outstanding guards. Whether it is Miles Kelly (the best shooter), Denver Jones (the best defender and clutch performer) or Tahaad Pettiford (the lefty bucket getter), Auburn’s guards shoot 40% from deep and 88% from the foul line. While Auburn is not a great free throw-shooting team overall, the guards are knockdown foul shooters, which can separate the Tigers at the end of games. Of course, having Johni Broome, the lefty national player of the year contender, provides Bruce Pearl with a run stopper who can score on demand or pass out of a double-team to combat most defensive schemes.
Separating factor: Auburn is very good in most every aspect of play, but the Tigers are the best of this group at protecting the ball without turning it over (followed by Duke and Houston). When Auburn gets a shot, the Tigers have a chance to get fouled and/or grab an offensive rebound. And no team is better at defending out-of-bounds situations or scoring off of them.
One player to watch: Denver Jones. The FIU transfer is the best on-ball defender on the roster and is a very gifted offensive player. Never getting the credit he deserves, Jones could wind up as the best all-around guard on the floor in any game. Jones can shoot, drive to score or dish, and he always seems to hold a defensive assignment under his average.
How they got here: Duke is the most talented team, the longest and the biggest, and it is the only one to rank in KenPom’s top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Despite having five freshmen in the rotation (they say you can’t win with freshmen, but you can), Duke plays with the togetherness and the consistency — at both ends — of a much older, more seasoned team. Led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, the best player in the country, Duke has multiple weapons to spread the floor, knock down perimeter shots, punch the lane off the dribble or the pass and put pressure on the rim with the vertical threat of Khaman Maluach. Duke is the best finishing team at the rim and the best free throw-shooting squad, and it has the best 2-point defense in the Final Four.
Separating factor: Size, length and ability to switch at all five positions. Duke has incredible length, which allows the Blue Devils to discourage and affect passes and shot attempts. In addition, being able to switch all screens and exchanges makes this a very difficult defense to go against. It is important to put Maluach into ball-screen situations and draw him away from the rim.
One player to watch: Tyrese Proctor. Flagg is the best player in college basketball, and Kon Knueppel is one of the best scorers in the tournament and is around every loose ball. But Proctor is a difference-maker with his shooting in catch-and-shoot situations, and he has been on fire in the tournament, shooting at a crazy clip and making great decisions. Proctor is also an outstanding defender.
How they got here: Houston has lost only four games this season, three of which were in overtime. The Cougars lead the nation in playing hard, and they are relentless on defense and on the glass. With traps coming off ball-screen situations and in the post, Houston makes everything difficult and is physical in layup lines. Nothing is easy against Houston, which has one of the truly admirable winning cultures in sports. To beat Houston, you must accept the physical challenge presented and play through contact. But this season, Houston is much more than an offensive rebounding and defense team. Houston is the best perimeter shooting team in the Final Four, shooting 40% from deep as a team, with L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and Milos Uzan all shooting better than 41% from 3, led by Uzan at 44.5%. Houston will challenge at the rim, and big men J’Wan Roberts, Joseph Tugler and Ja’Vier Francis are all long, strong, athletic defenders and rebounders.
Separating factor: Defense and rebounding. Houston is the best defensive team in the country, and the Cougars can control tempo. There is nothing easy against Houston. Opponents will not get a normal game against the Cougars. It is not enough to be ready to play them; you have to be ready to fight.
One player to watch: Emanuel Sharp. Nicknamed “Crash,” Sharp has tremendous range as a shooter and is fearless in the moment. With an unusual shooting motion in which he almost flicks the ball out of his hands, Sharp is rugged, tough and physical. He’s a good playmaker who can get hot in a hurry.
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