Arch Manning’s NFL Draft Projections & NIL Earnings Are Complicated

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Texas quarterback Arch Manning is not declaring for the 2026 NFL draft.

After a college football offseason full of hype, it has been a challenging year for Texas quarterback Arch Manning, complicating his potential NFL draft future. Additionally, Manning’s NIL projections took a hit amid his inconsistent production. The good news for Manning is that the star bounced back after a slow start to the season.

Manning will get another college football season to bolster his NFL draft stock. The Longhorns signal-caller made it clear that he plans to return to Texas for 2026 instead of declaring for the NFL draft.

Manning was once projected to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL draft, but the signal-caller could have found it challenging to get selected in the first round if he turned pro.

“I felt like I developed a lot this year, especially towards the back half, and I want to keep it going,” Manning told reporters on December 28, 2025, per Inside Texas’ Evan Vieth.

“There’s no reason to leave. I feel like I got a lot more football left to play, and excited to still be a part of this team.”

Here’s what you need to know about Manning’s NFL draft stock and NIL deals.

Texas QB Arch Manning’s NIL Value Dropped From $6.8 Million to $5.3 Million

Manning’s NIL valuation has also taken a hit with the quarterback’s projected earnings dropping $1.5 million since the beginning of the college football season. The Texas star entered the season with an NIL projection of $6.8 million, per On3.

Manning’s latest NIL projections are $5.3 million, but it is safe to say that the quarterback still remains one of the most marketable college football players. These projections still leave Manning with the highest NIL value of any college athlete.

It is worth noting that NIL deals are rarely made public. While these projections may fluctuate week-to-week based on a player’s performance, this is not typically how NIL contracts work. Manning likely signed NIL deals for a specific amount which would not rise or fall after one week’s performance.

The star’s NIL deals include Uber, Warby Parker, Vuori, Raising Cane’s, Red Bull and EA Sports among others.

Arch Manning Is Projected To Be a Top Prospect in the 2027 NFL Draft

Not everyone is sold on the idea that Manning’s NFL draft stock has taken a massive hit. One NFL scout told Fox Sports that Manning would have a chance to be the No. 1 pick if the quarterback entered the 2026 NFL draft.

“He might still go No. 1,” one NFL scout told Fox Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano for a December 10, feature story titled, “NFL Confidential: Scouts Say Arch Manning Would Be No. 1 QB in 2026 Draft.” “All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he’s got the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games.

“I think I’d still feel better about his future than anyone else in this year’s class.”

With the 2026 NFL draft still taking shape, it is even more challenging to project the top prospects for 2027. Walter Football’s Charlie Campbell released an early look at a mock for the 2027 NFL draft.

The mock draft projects the Cleveland Browns take Manning with the No. 4 overall pick in 2027. Manning still has plenty of time to improve his draft stock.

Jonathan Adams is a veteran sports contributor covering the NFL, NBA and golf for Heavy.com. His work has been prominently featured on NFL.com, Yahoo Sports, Pro Football Talk, CBS Sports, Bleacher Report and Sports Illustrated. More about Jonathan Adams