NFL betting usually rules the roost on the American sports wagering landscape. 

But College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds are giving the mighty shield a run for its money at the moment — particularly in the Miami vs. Ohio State Cotton Bowl matchup, which kicks off the quarterfinals on Dec. 31, and the Alabama vs. Indiana Rose Bowl showdown on Jan. 1.

“These standalone College Football Playoff games really rival the NFL games,” Caesars Sports vice president of trading Craig Mucklow said.

Mucklow serves up his insights on College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds for all four matchups.

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Bettors Backing Buckeyes

Ohio State is 12-1 straight up (SU), though that lone loss came in its last outing. The Buckeyes were 3.5-point favorites vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and fell short 13-10.

Still, with a 10-2-1 mark against the spread (ATS), Ohio State has been one of the best bets all season in college football. Only Texas Tech (11-2 ATS) is better at covering the number.

So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the public betting masses are all over No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 10 Miami (11-2 SU/8-5 ATS) in the Cotton Bowl, for a 7:30 p.m. ET New Year’s Eve kickoff.

“Ohio State is a bigger loser for us on the spread than any of the NFL Week 17 games. And there’s still [five days] of betting to come,” Mucklow said.

After Miami’s 10-3 first-round win at No. 7 Texas A&M, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites. That number sprinted to Buckeyes -10, with early bettors eager to pile on Ohio State.

The Hurricanes actually saw sharp action at +10, so Caesars adjusted Monday to Ohio State -9.5.

Backing Off ‘Bama

No. 9 Alabama (11-3 SU/8-5-1 ATS) has the SEC pedigree, which is usually attractive to the betting masses. But No. 1 Indiana (13-0 SU/8-5 ATS) has been an offensive juggernaut much of the season, and bettors like to back a good offense.

And even though the Hoosiers didn’t put up points in their last outing, they did beat defending national champion Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. That carries some weight, as well, for a 4 p.m. ET Rose Bowl clash on New Year’s Day.

Indiana opened as a 6-point favorite and moved out to -7 in short order. Mucklow said sharp action on Alabama +7 led Caesars to lower Indiana to -6.5. But a continuing flood of Indiana action from the masses moved the Hoosiers up to -7 again.

“Bettors are all over Indiana big time. That’s bigger than our Ohio State decision,” Mucklow said. “I hate to say it, but we’re Alabama fans by a good distance.”

That said, Mucklow noted Caesars has one angle working in its favor.

“Indiana has not really been in this position before. Alabama has been there, done that,” he said.

Short Spread

Oddsmakers believe No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech is the most competitive matchup in CFP quarterfinal odds. The Ducks opened as 1.5-point favorites and are up to -2 vs. the Red Raiders, for a noon ET New Year’s Day start in the Orange Bowl.

Oregon (12-1 SU/9-4 ATS) already has a CFP game under its belt, coasting past No. 12 James Madison 51-34. But the Ducks fell short of covering as huge 20.5-point home favorites.

As noted above, Texas Tech (12-1 SU/11-2 ATS) is the best spread-covering team in the nation this season. The Red Raiders have been resting since a 34-7 rout of BYU as 12.5-point favorites in the Big 12 Championship Game on Dec. 6.

Bettors are leaning toward the Ducks, as of Friday afternoon.

“Oregon is a small loser for us, nothing drastic. There’s not much of a difference between these two teams,” Mucklow said. “I think this game will see two-way action. It’s only a 2-point spread.”

Sweet Rematch

One matchup in College Football Playoff quarterfinal odds is actually a rematch from the regular season. In Week 8, Ole Miss and Georgia played a thriller in Athens, Ga.

Ole Miss — then under Lane Kiffin, who has since left for LSU — led 35-26 late in the third quarter. But Georgia did the rest of the scoring in a 43-35 victory, barely covering as a 7-point home favorite.

Now, No. 3 Georgia (12-1 SU/6-7 ATS) and No. 6 Ole Miss (12-1 SU/8-5 ATS) meet on a neutral field at the Sugar Bowl. The spread is similar to the first meeting, with the Bulldogs opening -6 and now up to -6.5 for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff on New Year’s Day.

“All the money is for Georgia, which doesn’t surprise me,” Mucklow said. “You’ve given Kirby Smart three weeks to prepare for this game.”

Money Talks

Mucklow also ran through ranking the four CFP quarterfinals based on the amount of money each game is seeing so far.

“Alabama-Indiana is No. 1 by a distance. Then it’s Miami-Ohio State,” Mucklow said. “Then there’s a pretty significant gap to Ole Miss-Georgia, and another big gap to Oregon-Texas Tech. That’s the least popular of the four, by a distance.”

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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The College Football Playoff has reached the quarterfinal round, after a mixed bag of first round matchups have landed us with eight teams remaining that can still win the national title. With less than a week left in the non-CFP bowl season, and the playoff ramping up, it’s time to take a look at all four second round matchups.

New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day will be the showcase for each of the quarterfinal games, and four iconic bowl games will be in the spotlight, determining who makes it to the semifinal round the following week. While our primary focus will be on the roster churn for the Oklahoma Sooners in the transfer portal and the players heading off to the pros, there’s no denying that there should be some great football to watch as the calendar turns to 2026.

The new changes to the transfer portal window were put in place with the intention of making things easier for both coaches and athletes, but some haven’t viewed the changes as a positive.

Per The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel, one agent said, “nothing has changed, except kids aren’t able to take visits.” The agent added that “it’s the dumbest thing in the world.”

Previously, there were two transfer portal windows: one being a 20-day window in December and the other being a 10-day window in April. As of October, there is now just one transfer portal window, which is Jan. 2-16 this year.

Athletes playing on a team that undergoes a coaching change are given a 15-day transfer portal window that begins five days after a new coach is hired. Players who are participating in the College Football Playoff but choose to transfer during the January window are allowed to stay with their teams through the end of the season.

On the surface, the change would seemingly be a net positive for all parties, but apparently it still needs some tweaking.

A shuffling of quarterbacks is coming to college football in 2026.

In the Power Four ranks, quarterbacks such as Rocco Becht, Josh Hoover, Dylan Raiola and Brendan Sorsby are looking for new schools to play for next season.

While the Power Four quarterbacks are dominating the spotlight, there are a number of Group of Five starters looking to increase their exposure at Power Four programs in 2026.

One quarterback who will depart from a Group of Five school when the transfer portal opens is UNLV starter Anthony Colandrea. He will have one season of eligibility remaining at his third school.

One school of interest that has emerged for Colandrea since he decided to leave UNLV is Florida State.

Pete Nakos of On3 reported that Florida State is interested in Colandrea as its starter in 2026.

Should Colandrea transfer to Florida State for the 2026 football season, he would join a growing number of quarterbacks who have transferred to the Seminoles in the last five seasons.

James Blackman was the last quarterback recruited out of high school to start at the beginning of a season for Florida State all the way back in 2020. Since Blackman, Mike Norvell has added Jordan Travis (Louisville), DJ Uiagelelei (Clemson and Oregon State), and Tommy Castellanos (Boston College) from the transfer portal to the Seminoles.

The 6-foot, 205-pounder began his college football journey with Tony Elliott at Virginia in 2023. Tony Muskett started that season at quarterback, but a combination of injuries and inconsistency gave Colandrea the opportunity to play in seven games. He threw for 1,958 yards, 13 touchdowns and nine interceptions while rushing for 225 yards.

Colandrea played in 11 of the Cavaliers’ 12 games in the 2024 season. He passed for 2,125 yards, 13 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while rushing for 277 yards and two touchdowns. He transferred to UNLV the following offseason.

The Rebels gave Colandrea the starting role over Michigan transfer Alex Orji after the first game. Colandrea passed for 3,459 yards, 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions while accumulating 649 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He guided UNLV to a 10-win season, a Mountain West Championship appearance and an appearance in the Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl.

Colandrea received Mountain West Player of the Year and All-Mountain West First Team distinction for his heroics in 2025.

Fox Sports college football analyst RJ Young delivered a harsh assessment of a high-profile quarterback who holds a $2.5 million NIL valuation from On3. This signal-caller recently decided to enter the transfer portal, a move that sparked significant conversation regarding loyalty and team building in the modern era. Young suggests the decision transforms the player from a program cornerstone into a temporary asset.

The analyst noted that the athlete’s next destination will likely view him as a transient piece rather than a long-term solution. This contrasts sharply with the fanbase he is leaving behind because they believed he would play a central role in restoring their program to national title contention.

The quarterback had originally arrived with immense expectations and family ties that carried unique prestige at his former school.

Young argued that the player had everything he requested at his previous stop, including a relative on the coaching staff. By exiting the program now, the standout leaves behind an unfinished job regarding a College Football Playoff invitation despite helping the team reach its first bowl game in eight years.

Analyst details financial, competitive implications of transfer decision

The subject of this scrutiny is Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola. He famously flipped his commitment from the Georgia Bulldogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes before landing in Lincoln. Young’s critique centered on the shift in how Raiola will be perceived moving forward.

“Wherever he lands next will greet him as a rental, unlike Huskers fans who believed he would play a large role in their return to national title contention,” Young said.

The analyst emphasized the unique situation Raiola abandoned.

“Raiola had everything he asked for at Nebraska,” Young said. “As a legacy with an uncle coaching the offensive line, his name carries a prestige in Lincoln that it does not anywhere else in the country.”

Fox Sports college football analyst Laken Litman also weighed in on the situation. She noted the massive expectations placed on the young passer when he arrived on campus.

“The 6-foot-3, 230-pound quarterback was supposed to be the star that would lead Nebraska’s resurgence alongside head coach Matt Rhule,” Litman said.

Raiola started as a freshman and threw for 2,819 yards in 2024. However, his second season did not go exactly as planned after he broke his leg against the USC Trojans. Litman pointed out that external factors likely influenced the departure.

“However, this year didn’t go as planned,” Litman said. “He broke his leg in a loss to USC that sidelined him for the rest of the season, and then couple that with Nebraska firing its offensive line coach, who is his uncle, and his brother de-committing from the 2026 recruiting class, and the decision starts making sense.”

Young added that the initial excitement blinded many to the quarterback’s history of movement.

“The admiration Cornhuskers fans laid on Raiola allowed many Nebraska fans to forget he transferred programs twice in high school and flipped his commitment three times as a prep player,” Young said. “Because his decision to play for the Huskers felt like the one that would stick.”

The Cornhuskers will face the Utah Utes in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl on Dec. 31 at 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Read more on College Football HQ

Let’s face it, college football in today’s day and age is nothing like it was even five years ago.

NIL and the transfer portal have introduced new wrinkles – and headaches – for coaches and programs to have to navigate, so building a roster is as complex as it has ever been.

READ: “College Football Is Sick” With NIL Buyouts And Beyond.

I have often found myself gnashing my teeth over the direction of the sport, but today I decided to focus that energy on how exactly to build a roster in this modern era of college football.

Let’s break this down into some key components.

Follow the NFL Model

General manager Howie Roseman of the Philadelphia Eagles. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

It’s not a new development to say that college football is becoming more like the NFL. 

With new roles like general manager being created to help deal with the transient and transactional nature of the college game, more and more schools are starting to treat their rosters like NFL operations.

That means abandoning the outdated idea of an 85-man scholarship roster and instead viewing it as a 53-man roster.

Gone are the days of stacking and shelving five-star talent just to keep them waiting in the wings. Most teams are realistically operating with a two-deep at most positions, with the occasional three-deep at high-attrition spots (think trenches).

In reality, you’re paying big money to roughly 35–45 players. Think of the rest as cost-controlled development.

Recruiting now functions more like a draft: cheaper, unproven talent you hope will provide depth and develop without immediately chasing a payday elsewhere.

Which brings us to money.

Budget Allocation and the Tier System

UCLA quarterback Nico Iamaleava. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

The average Power Four football budget — combining revenue sharing, boosters, and collectives — now sits north of $25 million.

That number is only going up, but for now, it’s a clean baseline.

READ: NIL Wars Between SEC And Big Ten.

The question becomes how to allocate that money without overspending on one player or undervaluing another.

Many general managers use a tier system rooted in NFL positional value, and since college football is mirroring the pros more each year, it makes sense to adopt it.

Tier One

• Starting quarterback
• Edge rusher
• Left tackle
• Cornerback
• X receiver

You could argue WR1 and CB1 sit in a Tier 1.5, but the idea is simple: quarterback is king, and the next most important positions are those that protect your QB and hunt the opposing one.

Tier Two

• Starting running back
• Slot receiver
• Backup quarterback
• Interior offensive and defensive linemen

Linebackers and safeties likely fall into Tier 2.5, if we’re splitting hairs.

A note on running backs: unless you’re dealing with a truly special player (think Saquon Barkley), they sit near the bottom of Tier Two. Their positional value just isn’t very high in today’s game and they wear down quicker than most other positions.

Tier Three

This is a developmental and depth tier, and where a lot of your high school recruiting budget should be spent outside five-star or top-100 high school talent (think low four-star and high three-star players who could develop into quality starters).

Tier Three is where a staff that is great at identifying and evaluating talent earns its pay; anyone can tell you a five-star WR will be a monster, but can you pick out the three-star kid and make him the next Puka Nacua?

Spending Breakdown

Now that we have our position groups identified, it’s time to breakdown where that money will go.

If we stick to the $25 million budget, it would look a little something like this:

Tier One is where roughly half of your funds will go ($11.25 million).

A QB gets 18% of the budget in the NFL, and it’s no different in college, as a high-level P4 starter will pull down a minimum of $3 million, more than likely 4.

Having an elite QB is almost a non-negotiable, but an elite edge rusher and left tackle is almost as important.

You’re probably going to end up spending $1.5 million on two game-wrecking edge rushers and a brick wall at left tackle.

A true WR1 that every defensive coordinator has to game plan for and lose sleep over will also fetch north of $1 million, as will a lockdown CB1.

From there, Tier Two gets a little under $9 million to play with, with your slot receivers and interior linemen eating most of the budget there just through quantity alone.

Tier Three is going to cost around $3–4 million and will be allocated to roughly 40% of your roster, so a lot of these guys will be cheaper depth pieces and younger developmental players.

It seems gross to breakdown college athletes based on what they are worth, but that is just the world we live in these days.

Recruiting vs. Transfer Portal

Finally, we get to my favorite part of the experiment: talent acquisition.

Those of you that are recruiting freaks like myself will be happy to know high school talent acquisition still plays a big role in building a roster, but the transfer portal is vital to any successful college program.

Your high school recruiting philosophy should prioritize Tier One players with super high upside, meaning you should spend on five-star and top-100 level quarterbacks, edge rushers, left tackles, and CB/WR1s.

Other players like interior linemen, safeties, and linebackers should still be recruited out of high school, but you shouldn’t reach for a high-priced talent when a kid who is 80% as good comes at half the cost.

When it comes to the transfer portal, treat it like free agency.

One-year rentals are fine, and you should never portal for depth. This should be to fill glaring holes on the roster.

Tier One is the priority in the portal, especially if you are deficient at a spot like tackle, edge rusher, or receiver.

By having a healthy balance of high school recruiting and the portal (probably a 70-30 split for programs with strong NIL), you can prevent your roster from hollowing out.

And there you have it!

NIL and the transfer portal have made college football almost unrecognizable, and I hate it, but if your team starts to adapt to the new model, they should be fine.

You will start to see more and more teams adapt a model that is similar to the NFL, and although that makes me sad to see, it doesn’t mean college football is mirroring the NFL, rather, it is just mirroring the NFL’s positional value structure.

Hang in there, college football fans. The sport is getting weirder by the day, so let’s all just weather the storm at this point.