NIL
BCS Formula adds to the Final College Football Playoff Rankings controversy
The 2025 college football season is over and the College Football Playoffs are officially set to begin. And not without significant controversy after a 10-2 Notre Dame team was left out.
But what might the playoff look like if the committee wasn’t involved and it was left up to a less subjective system, like the BCS? Well, the fine folks at BCSKnowHow.com have clued us in on exactly what that would look like.
On3 stops to compile BCSKnowHow’s top 25, breaking it down into the hypothetical matchups it would create. Let’s dive into it below.
Indiana’s win in the Big Ten Championship Game was enough to cinch the No. 1 seed in both reality and in the BCS simulation. The Hoosiers are clearly the top team in the country and as such have earned a bye in the playoff.
Few teams are firing on all cylinders the way Indiana is right now, and the Hoosiers are pretty battle-tested after knocking off the next two best teams in the league. There’s a whole lot of excitement around the program right now, and rightly so.
The simulated BCS continues to match up with the actual College Football Playoff rankings, keeping Ohio State up at No. 2 despite the loss on Saturday in the Big Ten title game. It was a close loss that could have cut either way, and it certainly won’t be a deterrent for the Buckeyes.
Now the question becomes how quickly Ohio State can turn the page on that loss? Will it linger or will the Buckeyes march on with a unified front and a clear goal? Something tells us Ryan Day will have his squad ready.
The Georgia defense kept Alabama off-balance all day long in the SEC Championship Game, paving the way for a blowout win. The offense did what it needed to apply pressure, and it eventually caused the Crimson Tide to cave.
Though the Bulldogs end up with the No. 3 seed, they’ll still have a nice path in the playoffs that begins with a first-round bye. That’s important in getting everyone healthy and ready to roll for the College Football Playoff run.
Texas Tech, like in the College Football Playoff rankings, takes the No. 4 spot in the BCS simulation. That keeps the Red Raiders in position to earn a first-round bye and avoid playing right away.
The Red Raiders might be playing as well defensively as any team in the country, even after impressive showings by Ohio State and Indiana on Saturday. Can that power Texas Tech to a deep playoff run?
The first team to check in outside the top four, Oregon earns a first-round home game by virtue of checking in at No. 5. It also gets the lowest-ranked conference champion by virtue of doing so, and this matchup is the same as the actual CFP.
Oregon probably hasn’t quite played its best football just yet, but getting a home game to start a playoff run can potentially kick things into gear. Say this: Nobody’s exactly going to be lining up wanting to face the Ducks.
The second SEC team in the field in both the College Football Playoff rankings and the simulated BCS, Ole Miss earns a first-round home game in the playoffs. Oxford should be downright insane.
Throw in the fact that the Rebels now have a new coach for the playoffs and the intrigue for this one is off the charts. The rankings do, however, include a rematch for Ole Miss. More on that below.
Again, the CFP continues to track perfectly with the BCS simulation through the first seven teams. That’s been the case each of the first two years in the playoff; the committee is often not much different than the BCS.
Kyle Field gets tapped to host a playoff game, and in this edition the opponent actually does change. Alabama checks in as the No. 10 team and thus the opponent for Texas A&M in the first round.
Still the same as the College Football Playoff rankings, and Oklahoma gets to host a home playoff game as a result. The Sooners have certainly earned it after compiling some excellent wins, including a win over Alabama.
The weather is even shaping up such that we could have a potential snow game in Norman in two weeks. That would certainly be something for two powerhouse teams vying for a national title, ultimately.
The first drastic change the BCS simulation produces against the College Football Playoff rankings is the inclusion of Notre Dame in the field at No. 9. Because Alabama slipped behind Notre Dame, there was a buffer with Miami.
That’s ultimately what did the Fighting Irish in when the real field was unveiled on Sunday. Alabama did not slide, leaving Notre Dame vulnerable to the head-to-head result with Miami and out of the field. Not so in the BCS.
Alabama checks in only one spot lower than the actual CFP in the simulated BCS, falling to No. 10 overall. That puts it as the last team to make the field as an at-large.
The Crimson Tide have a lot of work to do to prove they’re worthy of the bid after falling to the Bulldogs in blowout fashion on Saturday evening. Can Alabama regroup and put up a fight on the road at Texas A&M?
Miami doesn’t get the benefit of sidling up next to Notre Dame in the rankings in the BCS simulation. Thus, the Hurricanes end up left out of the field in this edition of the would-be playoffs.
Ultimately, Miami had a strong season but the loss to Louisville would prove costly in this scenario. Luckily for Hurricanes fans, this is just an exercise. In reality, Miami is readying for a first-round playoff game at Texas A&M.
BYU falls to the same spot in the simulated BCS rankings as the College Football Playoff, which is to say outside of the playoff field. Even with a closer game in the Big 12 Championship Game it’s not clear that BYU would have had enough juice to make the field.
Overall it was a strong season for the Cougars, but they were blown out both times by the Red Raiders. Wins over Utah and Arizona were reasonably impressive, though.
Rest of the CFP Top 25: 13-25
- Vanderbilt Commodores
- Texas Longhorns
- Utah Utes
- USC Trojans
- Michigan Wolverines
- Tulane Green Wave
- James Madison Dukes
- Arizona Wildcats
- Virginia Cavaliers
- Navy Midshipmen
- North Texas Mean Green
- Iowa Hawkeyes
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
First-Round Byes
- Indiana Hoosiers
- Ohio State Buckeyes
- Georgia Bulldogs
- Texas Tech Red Raiders
5. Oregon Ducks vs. 12. James Madison Dukes
Oregon will get to play host to James Madison in this matchup that mirrors the actual College Football Playoff selections. It’s hard to see James Madison coming away with a win in that tough an environment, but that’s why they play the games.
6. Ole Miss Rebels vs. 11. Tulane Green Wave
Another true-to-life matchup, Ole Miss will be set to host Tulane in the first round of the playoffs. The two teams have already met once this year, with the Rebels winning in an absolute blowout in Oxford. Can the Green Wave tighten the margin a bit? Maybe even make it competitive?
7. Texas A&M Aggies vs. 10. Alabama Crimson Tide
In previous years this would have consistuted a rematch, but Alabama and Texas A&M did not face each other this year or last year. Still, it’s a game in which both programs — if not the coaches — will be plenty familiar with each other. That could make for a fun game.
8. Oklahoma Sooners vs. 9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
In the final first-round playoff game, Oklahoma plays host to Notre Dame, which makes the field over Miami in the simulated version of the BCS. This has all the makings of a classic, particularly depending on how the weather shakes out.