Binge, Watch, Pass

The game environment serves as the critical foundation for making decisions regarding fantasy football lineups. Therefore, I will categorize each game on the schedule into three sections: Binge, Stream, and Skip.

“Binge” games are akin to that must-see show; you tune in as soon as it airs and might binge all episodes in a single weekend. These games are essential for starting all your players and often have significant implications for the season.

“Stream” games, on the other hand, resemble shows that you definitely finish, albeit over a span of time rather than in one sitting. While these matchups may not showcase numerous “must-start” players, we can selectively choose our spots, especially since the teams involved could be relevant in the NFL playoff race.

Finally, the games you may wish to “skip” are those you’re inclined to overlook, though you might catch a few moments here and there (or stick to reading recaps to keep up with the trends). There may be a surprising player or two in these matchups, but overall, they do not provide the ideal atmosphere for fantasy football.

Let’s explore my Week 14 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.

BINGE

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Among the most pivotal games in Week 14, the Seahawks-Cardinals rematch stands out. Per NFL.com, the Seahawks have a 75% chance of advancing to the playoffs with a win and a 25% chance should they lose. Conversely, the Cardinals’ chances rise to 61% with a victory and drop to 11% with a defeat.

This game carries significant weight.

A point some fantasy football enthusiasts may find surprising is that this contest could be influenced heavily by defensive performance. Quietly, both the Cardinals and Seahawks defenses have seen notable improvements in the latter half of the season, ranking in the top 10 in EPA per play allowed since Week 8.

Arizona currently stands seventh, boasting substantial progress in pass defense. The Cardinals employ man coverage at the highest percentage in the NFL during third and fourth downs. This strategic shift by Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis has yielded promising results. They’ve implemented some intricate pressure schemes, putting powerful offenses in tough situations. Since Week 8, Arizona ranks fifth in passing success rate allowed.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected to be the centerpiece of the Seahawks’ passing attack this week. JSN ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage this season, emerging as a genuine threat from the slot.

JSN has also become Geno Smith’s go-to target in late-game situations when defenses ramp up the pressure. He surpassed 100 yards against this same Cardinals defense previously due to these evolving defensive trends. Once more, he must deliver for the Seahawks.

In spite of their success in the air, the run defense isn’t as formidable, ranking 27th in success rate allowed since Week 8. Will the Seahawks capitalize on this? Their running game has been lackluster for an extended period.

Since Week 8, Kenneth Walker III has averaged just 2.99 yards per carry and found the end zone only once. Although he remains a highly regarded player in fantasy football, strangely enough, his usage in the passing game has been the standout aspect of his performance this season. Walker ranks eighth among running backs in targets, sharing this distinction with Justice Hill and positioned between Chase Brown and Rachaad White. Probably not what you expected. If you look closely, outside of rushing touchdowns, his performance resembles that of Javonte Williams. He is also questionable for Week 15 due to calf and ankle injuries.

The friction between their running and passing strategies continues to concern me. Geno Smith has made 449 dropbacks with a completion rate of 70.2% from shotgun, whereas he’s attempted just 44 from under-center with a 53.8% completion rate. There’s a clear stylistic inclination. However, Walker is characterized as a downhill, under-center back. Marrying these approaches has proven challenging. Therefore, unless the Seahawks’ running game reveals some uncharted strategies, they might struggle to exploit this matchup.

Conversely, the Seahawks’ run defense has recently emerged as one of the league’s best. Leonard Williams has performed at an elite level for over a month, and rookie Byron Murphy II’s return has positively impacted the defensive line’s performance. Mike MacDonald has restructured the linebacker unit, resulting in a collective that strengthens his defensive scheme. This group stifled the Cardinals’ run attack in Week 12, which will be essential for achieving a 2-0 record against their divisional foe.

The sole vulnerability in the Seahawks’ thriving defense lies in the coverage provided by their perimeter corners. However, anyone tuning in to the Arizona offense is aware that Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s connection on the perimeters has faced challenges on curls, comebacks, and go routes. Harrison thrives on routes across the middle, which puts him in the sights of Seahawks standout Devon Witherspoon and the revamped linebackers. Murray must locate Harrison, who will need to perform at a high level on those outside routes for the Cardinals to challenge this defense.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

The Bills offense boasts numerous avenues to challenge opponents. In a matchup against a Rams defense that has weaknesses in the secondary but a formidable pass rush from younger players, there are two effective strategies to pursue.

The Bills could choose to control the clock and ground game. Their rushing attack has been dynamic and a catalyst for big plays. James Cook has shown explosiveness across multiple schemes, reminding everyone in the previous week that he can generate substantial yardage. His backup, Ray Davis, has achieved an even higher success rate on the gap runs that Joe Brady has emphasized since taking over as offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the run game become Buffalo’s focal point.

Should they opt to pass, watch for Khalil Shakir to come alive. Shakir has proven to be the most reliable receiver on the team and has served as a reliable target for Josh Allen. This will be vital, especially against the pressure. Shakir is among the most effective pass-catchers when faced with zone coverage, and the Rams allow the third-most points per dropback in zone coverage, according to Fantasy Points Data.

On the Rams’ side, the ball’s destination is clear. While Cooper Kupp remains a prominent figure in the offense, it’s evident since their returns that Puka Nacua has taken the lead role. As the preceding statistics illustrate, he ranks among the top receivers in both man and zone coverage efficiency. Regardless of the defensive look, Nacua has become an asset for the Rams. His greatest growth has been in his ability to catch the ball outside his frame, showcasing consistency and aggression during contested catches.

The running back dynamics are worth observing in L.A. Rookie Blake Corum played a season-high 32% of the snaps and made significant contributions early in the game. Sean McVay has indicated this is intended to keep Corum fresh, which is sensible.

Kyren Williams typically operates on man and gap scheme runs and has shown notably higher success rates on those plays. In contrast, Corum has been more effective with zone schemes thus far. This pairing can be quite effective, even with Williams taking the lead. Should anything happen to Williams due to injury, Corum remains a valuable stash for fantasy playoff teams.

Buffalo presents a favorable matchup for the Rams running game. With their offensive line in good health and Williams’ efficiency climbing while Corum shares the workload, this could be an opportunity for the Rams to capitalize on the ground.

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have already clinched a playoff berth and yet another AFC West title. However, the Chargers can further solidify their case as a genuine playoff contender.

Los Angeles is coming off a week filled with concerning play against a previously manageable Falcons defense. Atlanta entered that matchup with only 10 total sacks, and they emerged having recorded 15. The interior offensive line has continued to pose challenges for both the run and pass game of the Chargers offense. Though the Chiefs defense has fallen down the rankings in recent months, they still possess players who can disrupt Justin Herbert’s rhythm.

If Herbert has time and Ladd McConkey is cleared to play, currently questionable with knee and shoulder issues, he’s poised to exploit Kansas City’s vulnerabilities.

McConkey boasts the third-highest yards per route run against man coverage this season at 3.44. He ranks just behind A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson, while ahead of Nico Collins and CeeDee Lamb. Not too shabby. This week, he faces a Chiefs defense that has the sixth-highest rate of man coverage, offering far more opportunities for slot receivers than outside options (seventh-most for outside receivers).

On the Chiefs’ end, the primary point of interest is within the backfield. Isiah Pacheco, in his first game since Week 2, was on the field for 33% of the Chiefs’ snaps and received 47% of the carries. Pacheco’s performance yielded seven carries for 44 yards, thanks to a significant run. This explosive ability can enhance the backfield’s productivity. Kareem Hunt has efficiently handled what’s been blocked but hasn’t added much. As Pacheco regains his form, the threat of explosive plays should escalate.

Pacheco’s 6.1 yards per touch in Week 13 was higher than all but one of Hunt’s performances this year.

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While the backfield usage remains divided, Hunt recorded his lowest usage since joining the Chiefs. He participated in only 40% of the snaps and had just nine touches. Though he will continue to see involvement as a rusher, as the game progresses, Pacheco is likely to outshine the veteran back.

The Chiefs’ passing game appears unchanged. They are increasingly utilizing two tight-end sets with Travis Kelce and Noah Gray, which complicates the outlook for the wide receivers. Although it’s not anticipated for this week, rumors suggest that Marquise Brown could make a return in a few weeks. This would be significant, as his revival could disrupt the receiver dynamic and offer skills that others like Xavier Worthy and DeAndre Hopkins don’t possess.

STREAM

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Key Falcons storyline: Kirk Cousins’ passing efficiency varies significantly between man and zone coverage this year.

This effectively clarifies his struggles last week against the Chargers, a team that favors zone coverage with the third-highest frequency in the NFL. There were open receivers available, but by the time Cousins threw the ball, the opening had closed, contributing to his 10 interceptions against zone defenses—demonstrating his difficulty in consistently delivering passes through defenders. With this in mind, facing his former team in Minnesota in Week 14 could prove challenging. Brian Flores’ Vikings defense has registered varied defensive strategies, but they rank sixth in zone coverage frequency and have granted the third-fewest points per dropback.

Key Vikings storyline: Justin Jefferson, who hasn’t produced a true “spike week” recently, is due for a standout performance with over 150 yards and multiple touchdowns to improve his season totals. It’s possible he may achieve this more than once. Jefferson is having a remarkable season by any metric—be it film study, yards per route run, or big play counts—but he’s “only” on track for 96 receptions, 1,470 yards, and 7 touchdowns while averaging a career-low 14.1 half-PPR points per game. Unusual statistical discrepancies often rectify themselves, typically influenced by unfriendly luck. I estimate he’ll surpass several of those stated achievements before the conclusion of Week 18.

While I can’t predict exactly when it will occur, it is highly likely to happen within the next five games.

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

Key Panthers storyline: Bryce Young has shown significant improvement by delivering three commendable performances recently. While he isn’t rewriting the record books, he has accumulated four total touchdowns, avoided being sacked, and has created plays with his mobility. His adjusted yards per attempt sit at 7.1. The contrast between his early weeks and the recent film showcases his growth as a capable NFL starter, a major upgrade from his rookie year. Week 14 will be his greatest challenge yet, as the Eagles boast the top defense in football over the last two months. In contrast, his previous opponents included a weak Giants pass defense, a Chiefs team in distress, and the most vulnerable secondary in the NFL—Tampa Bay.

Key Eagles storyline: A.J. Brown is enjoying an extraordinary season in terms of efficiency, though it hasn’t culminated in impressive box score numbers due to limited passing volume in Philadelphia. We’re hoping that the recently proficient Panthers can maintain this momentum to stimulate the Eagles’ aerial attack. Otherwise, it appears to be an ideal scenario for the Eagles to rely heavily on Saquon Barkley, leveraging another significant performance against the Panthers’ defense, which ranks last in rushing success rate.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Browns storyline: The Jameis Winston effect is reviving the Browns’ passing game, and it’s as striking as you’d expect.

With Deshaun Watson, the Browns had the least efficient passing game, whereas, with Winston, they’re leading in catchable air yards. It’s astonishing the impact Winston has had on reviving what was once a stagnant passing game. With Cedric Tillman out for this matchup, Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore should both be viewed as starting options in fantasy, with David Njoku also considered a viable TE1.

Key Steelers storyline: Russell Wilson is coming off one of the finest passing performances of his NFL tenure. Given his previous achievements in Seattle, that says a lot.

Wilson and George Pickens have been exceptionally effective against man coverage on the perimeter. In Week 14, they face a Browns defense that utilizes a substantial amount of man coverage along with single-high schemes, ranking among the top three highest rates. Unlike their last encounter, there is a favorable weather forecast anticipated for Sunday in Pittsburgh, which should lead to increased scoring for the Steelers. Notably, Pickens is questionable due to a new hamstring issue, but after participating in limited practice on Friday, his chances of playing seem promising.

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers

Key Bears storyline: Thomas Brown has rapidly risen through the ranks, earning two promotions within a month. He transitioned from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator after Shane Waldron’s departure, and now he holds the position of interim head coach following Matt Eberflus’ exit. Brown has positively influenced the offense, increasing passing rates and eliminating ineffective concepts during his brief tenure as OC. As he now juggles head coaching responsibilities, there may be less time for him to innovate the offensive playbook. Regardless of whether he becomes the head coach for the long term, he has significant obligations to ensure Caleb Williams’ final weeks as a rookie are a constructive experience.

Key 49ers storyline: The 49ers’ playoff hopes aren’t completely extinguished, but this season has proven to be challenging both on and off the field for a contender. Nevertheless, there remains interest in key players as they navigate the final stretch. Following injuries to their leading two running backs, Isaac Guerendo has emerged as a player to monitor. He does not replicate the same running style as Christian McCaffrey or Jordan Mason. Instead, Guerendo resembles the traditional Shanahan-style outside zone runners of yesteryear. According to Fantasy Points Data, Guerendo has seen the highest portion of carries on zone concepts this season (76.2%) and boasts an impressive average of 6.19 yards per carry. He has the potential to reward fantasy players even on limited touches, even if his overall efficiency does not reflect it.

Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys

Key Bengals storyline: Even with their defensive struggles, the Bengals’ offense operates with precision. Joe Burrow has emerged as one of the top quarterbacks in the league, and the offense becomes particularly effective when Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase share the field. Additionally, Chase Brown is starting to creep into RB1 territory in fantasy leagues. They have performed well against tough opponents this season, yet it’s vital to note that their counterparts are not what they used to be defensively. Dallas currently stands in the top 10 for EPA per play allowed since Week 8. The return of Micah Parsons and others has bolstered this unit, though the Bengals’ playoff chances remain slim; a loss could signal the end of their aspirations and push Higgins, perhaps even Chase, to be cautious given their contract situations.

Key Cowboys storyline: Mike McCarthy made notable declarations about elevating Rico Dowdle to the lead back position a few weeks ago. The coach has followed through, as Dowdle has taken control of 68.3% of the team’s carries in the last two games, along with six targets on 24 routes. Such usage is impressive for a running back. Over the past two games, he has averaged 15.1 points per game, capitalizing on his opportunities well. He faces a Bengals defense that has shown vulnerabilities in numerous areas. Dowdle’s performance is critical as he approaches contract negotiations this offseason with a chance of re-signing with Dallas as their starting back in 2025.

SKIP

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

One reason to maybe watch: Believe it or not — and really, you don’t need to watch; I can handle that — but Will Levis is starting to string together some respectable performances.

Over the last four weeks, Levis ranks just behind Jordan Love, Jared Goff, and Jameis Winston in yards per attempted pass. Ironically, Winston has long been my tongue-in-cheek comparison for Levis. Despite still being prone to significant sacks and turnovers, he has clearly demonstrated greater potential as a passer, blending steadiness with flashes of brilliance since returning from injury. His mistake-to-big-play ratio has improved and he’s been more productive in the passing game, with Calvin Ridley benefiting alongside Nick Westbrook-Ikhine finding the end zone consistently. The Titans’ schedule has promising matchups with Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis on the horizon.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

One reason to maybe watch: It’s essential to observe how Tyreek Hill wraps up what has become a lackluster 2024 season.

Hill performed at an extraordinary pace last season, but even with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa this year, his productivity has not met expectations consistently. We’re now entering the cryptic social media phase. Miami might need to diversify their offensive strategies beyond the repetitive approach that has plagued them this season. Hill could certainly contribute to an evolution within the Dolphins’ offense, but it raises the question of how they will evaluate his development as the season concludes.

New Orleans Saints at New York Giants

One reason to maybe watch: Both the Giants and Saints are engaged in an “exploratory youth” phase this season. Players like Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. stand out as potential stars for the Giants. While Nabers can be viewed as a key player, Tracy is likely still showcasing his talents for a future role in 2025. Despite recent fumbles, he achieved his highest snap share and route involvement during a game with Devin Singletary active on Thanksgiving. He boasts a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that ranks 28th in rushing EPA permissible since Week 8. Conversely, Kendre Miller is a promising young prospect who may finally get a chance to showcase his skills following the conclusion of the Dennis Allen era.

While Miller isn’t a fantasy starter, he and Alvin Kamara could find success running against a Giants defense that has been one of the most accommodating to running backs throughout the year.

Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One reason to maybe watch: While I’ll categorize this game as a skip since the Buccaneers should comfortably win and the Raiders are irrelevant at this point in the season, I do have an interest in both offenses. Liam Coen’s Buccaneers have been among my favorites this entire season, featuring a trio of fantasy contributors in Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Baker Mayfield, accompanied by solid supporting players. Under Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas’s offense has taken an intriguing turn. He has been the most aggressive quarterback for the 2024 Raiders, frequently targeting his top receivers. Brock Bowers (41%) and Jakobi Meyers (32%) accounted for nearly three-quarters of the targets in Week 13. Both players exceed 2.0 yards per route run against zone coverage and are set to confront the NFL’s most zone-heavy defense in Tampa Bay.