Bristol Night Showdown Set to Decide Round of 16 in NASCAR Cup Playoffs – Speedway Digest

BRISTOL, Tenn. — The NASCAR Cup Series returns to the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the 127th running of a race on the iconic concrete surface. As the elimination race for the Round of 16, Bristol once again takes center stage in the Playoffs, where drama, desperation, and dominance collide under the lights.

This marks the sixth time Bristol has hosted a Playoff race, and each time it’s served as the final chance for drivers to secure their spot in the next round. With two drivers already locked in—Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe—the remaining 14 contenders face a pressure-packed night with the cutline looming large.

Larson vs. Hamlin: Bristol’s Recent Kings

Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson have combined to win six of the last nine Bristol races, including each of the last four. Larson, in particular, has been untouchable, sweeping both stages and leading a staggering 873 of 1,000 laps in the last two races—more than any driver over a two-race short track span since Bobby Allison in 1972.

Larson’s dominance includes:

• Leading 462 of 500 laps last September (a Hendrick Motorsports record)
• Top-10 finishes in 11 of his last 12 Bristol starts
• Top-five finishes in all six Bristol races with Hendrick Motorsports

Hamlin, meanwhile, has four career Bristol wins, three of which came in the last nine races. He also became the fifth-oldest driver to win from the pole earlier this season and has led Toyota’s charge in the Playoffs, where the manufacturer has paced 515 of 607 laps and placed six of the top seven finishers at Darlington.

Calm Before the Chaos?

Recent Bristol races have defied the track’s reputation for carnage:

• Only three cautions last April—the fewest since 1982
• No accident-related DNFs in two of the last three races
• No overtime finishes in the last 17 events
• Final green flag stretches of 121+ laps in each of the last four races

Still, with the stakes higher than ever, expect intensity to rise as drivers battle for survival.

Cutline Crunch: Who’s Safe, Who’s Vulnerable?

With the largest bubble in stage-era history (11 points), the fight to advance is tighter than ever. Here’s how key drivers can clinch:

✅ Already Advanced:

• Denny Hamlin
• Chase Briscoe

🟡 Can Clinch Regardless of Finish:

🟢 Can Clinch with Points (if no surprise winner):

• Bubba Wallace: 7 points
• Ryan Blaney: 15 points
• William Byron: 18 points
• Tyler Reddick: 19 points
• Christopher Bell: 25 points
• Chase Elliott: 29 points
• Joey Logano: 36 points
• Ross Chastain: 38 points
• Austin Cindric: 46 points

🔴 Must Win or Get Help:

• Austin Dillon
• Shane van Gisbergen
• Alex Bowman
• Josh Berry

Van Gisbergen, who entered the round +16 to the cutline, could set a dubious record if he fails to advance—the largest margin squandered in stage-era history.

Additional Storylines to Watch

• Alex Bowman looks to match Rusty Wallace’s record with a third straight Bristol pole.
• Ty Gibbs has led 239 laps at Bristol—his most at any track.
• Kyle Busch, despite eight career wins here, has finished 14th or worse in six straight Bristol starts.
• Ryan Blaney has finished 11th or better in nine straight short-track races.
• Christopher Bell seeks to end a seven-race night race drought without a top-10.

With history, heartbreak, and heroics all on the line, Bristol’s elimination night promises to deliver another unforgettable chapter in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Let me know if you’d like a driver-by-driver cheat sheet or a live coverage prep guide—I can help you track every twist and turn.

BRISTOL, Tenn. — The NASCAR Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend for the 127th time on its famed concrete surface, marking a pivotal moment in the 2025 Playoffs. As the elimination race for the Round of 16, Bristol’s high-banked half-mile will once again serve as the crucible where championship dreams are either solidified—or shattered.

This marks the sixth time Bristol has hosted a Playoff race, and each time it’s been the final chance for drivers to advance to the Round of 12. With two drivers already locked in—Denny Hamlin and Chase Briscoe—the remaining 14 contenders face a pressure-packed night under the lights.

Larson and Hamlin: Bristol’s Modern Titans

Few drivers have mastered Bristol in recent years like Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin. The duo has combined to win six of the last nine races here, including each of the last four—two apiece. Larson’s dominance has been particularly staggering:

• Led 462 of 500 laps last September, a Hendrick Motorsports record
• Swept both stages and led 87% of laps in each of the last two races (873 of 1,000)
• Most laps led over a two-race short track span since Bobby Allison in 1972
• Top-10 finishes in 11 of his last 12 Bristol starts

Hamlin, meanwhile, has four career Bristol wins, three of which came in the last nine races. He also became the fifth-oldest driver to win from the pole earlier this season and has led Toyota’s charge in the Playoffs, where the manufacturer has paced 515 of 607 laps.

Calm Before the Storm?

Recent Bristol races have defied the track’s chaotic reputation:

• Only three cautions last April—the fewest since 1982
• No accident-related DNFs in two of the last three races
• No overtime finishes in the last 17 events
• Final green flag stretches of 121+ laps in each of the last four races
• April’s final stage ran 235 laps green—second-longest in track history

Still, with the cutline looming and tempers flaring, expect intensity to rise as drivers battle for survival.

Cutline Crunch: Who’s Safe, Who’s Vulnerable?

Already Advanced:

• Denny Hamlin
• Chase Briscoe

Can Clinch Regardless of Finish:

Can Clinch with Points (if no surprise winner):

• Bubba Wallace: 7 points
• Ryan Blaney: 15 points
• William Byron: 18 points
• Tyler Reddick: 19 points
• Christopher Bell: 25 points
• Chase Elliott: 29 points
• Joey Logano: 36 points
• Ross Chastain: 38 points
• Austin Cindric: 46 points

Must Win or Get Help:

• Austin Dillon
• Shane van Gisbergen
• Alex Bowman
• Josh Berry

Van Gisbergen, who entered the round +16 to the cutline, could set a dubious record if he fails to advance—the largest margin squandered in stage-era history