Earlier this week I sent out a request to those who support the work done here over at Patreon to submit some questions for today’s mailbag and we got quite a few of them. You could have been a part of this, too, for just a few bucks a month of support. Ok, enough with the sales job, let’s get to answering some questions.

Which prospect is most likely to be moved up a level this season?

We’ve already seen Chase Burns get bumped up once this season. And the early returns on his time in Double-A also suggests that he’s too good for that level, too. While I do think there are plenty of prospects who will get bumped up this season, none seem *as likely* as Burns does. And he might be on the fastest of tracks to the big leagues, too. Faster than that of Rhett Lowder, who also started the year in Dayton (in 2024) and was in the big leagues before September rolled around.

Which prospect is performing better than you anticipated?

Can I say Tyson Lewis even though he’s only played in two games? He’s putting up elite level big league exit velocities but doing so at age 19.

While he’s currently injured and we won’t see him for a while, Tyler Callihan’s first month of the year certainly stood out for it being better than I anticipated. He hasn’t hit like that before, even for just a month.

On the mound I will say Ty Floyd. Coming off of shoulder surgery, even if he’s been limited in his usage each time he’s taken the mound and it’s been in Single-A, I think it would be a lie if anyone said they anticipated him having a 1.46 ERA and allowing just 10 hits in 24.2 innings.

Which prospect based on current performance is most likely to move into your next top 25 list?

With the caveat that I put way more time and effort into things when I actually go about making the lists, the first guy that jumped into my mind was Leo Balcazar. I had really liked what he had done prior to his knee injury in 2023, but last season when he came back he just didn’t look as athletic and his numbers were absolutely terrible for the first four months of the year. This season he looks so much better on the field and the numbers have followed. He looks a lot closer to the guy he looked like before the knee injury in terms of his athleticism and he’s hitting well with Dayton right now, too.

What type of prospect starts out in Daytona?

This can be viewed in two different ways. If the question is meant to be “which prospect makes their first professional appearance with Daytona”, then it’s usually going to be your more polished college guys in the year in which they were drafted and still get on the field, or just your typical college draftee the year after they were selected and didn’t play the year before.

If the question is more about which guys start their season there – it’s usually just a mix of the previously mentioned college guys as well as a mix of some holdovers from the year before who need to work on some things and or are blocked at the next level, as well as guys who performed well in the complex the year before.

Is Ty Floyd throwing near the velocity of where he was sitting at LSU? Does he have more than a 2-pitch mix?

The pre-draft scouting report for Ty Floyd had his fastball sitting around 95 and touching 98 MPH. In the three games he’s pitched in this year on the road with Daytona where we get pitch tracking data he’s averaging just over 92 MPH and has topped out at 94.6 MPH. So at least at this point he’s not really throwing near the reported velocity he had at LSU.

He is throwing four pitches this season. For the most part he’s a 4-seam (64%), slider (17%), and change up (15%) guy. But he’s also mixing in a curveball a time or two per start (4%).

Will we see Chase Burns in Cincinnati this year? If so, when could that happen?

I think that we will, but it’s not always up to the guy who is in the minor leagues. If – and this is a huge if – everyone in the rotation is pitching lights out, they arr not going to push them out of the rotation for Burns. And then you have to wonder if the team would put Burns into the bullpen just to get him to the club. I don’t think they would. But we also know that pitchers don’t tend to remain healthy all year long as a whole, so it’s unlikely there wouldn’t be an opportunity somewhere.

All of that said, I would say at some point by around early July wouldn’t leave me surprised if he got called up. As noted above, I think he’s probably too good for Double-A. So I wouldn’t be shocked if he finds himself in Louisville in the next 3-6 weeks. And really, the only other starting pitcher in the minor leagues that’s on the 40-man roster right now is Chase Petty. Rhett Lowder, though, might join him depending on how things shake out with his rehab and the current rotation in the big leagues when he’s ready.

In this year’s draft for 2025, are the Reds looking to draft a player who has a high hit ceiling/rating? Currently, the Cincinnati Reds organization lack a pure hitter with a high on base percentage. The current roster and the minors lack one. Could the Reds select 1B Andrew Fischer from Tennessee or Ike Irish 1B/C from Auburn? Both are hit first candidates. 

I would be quite surprised if the Reds took a first baseman in the 1st round. Every year they talk about how they are targeting pitchers or guys that play up the middle (shortstop, center field, catcher). I can’t even remember off of the top of my head the last time they selected a guy who was a true first baseman in the 1st round. Even a guy like Cam Collier, who plenty of people felt could wind up at first (and still feel that way), had/has a chance to play third for a bit.

The Reds are drafting 9th this year. I looked up all of the players they’ve taken with a top 10 pick since 2000. They’ve made 11 picks in the top 10 and seven of them have been pitchers, two have been third basemen, one was a center fielder, and then there was one first baseman – Yonder Alonso in 2008. It feels like a safe bet that they won’t be going with a first baseman.

Depending on which ranking is used, the Reds farm system is ranked around #10. Yet, none of the Reds minor league teams have a winning record. To what do you attribute that and when do you expect team performance to improve?

Farm system rankings are, for the most part, just rankings that are comparing the top 10-ish prospects against other organization’s top 10-ish prospects. The reason for that is simple: That’s where the difference makers come from. That’s generally where a team is going to find every day players/starting pitchers. Having 20 guys after that who could be utility players doesn’t move the needle for the big league club, but that kind of depth in the minor leagues can be a huge difference maker for the farm system when it comes to their won/loss record.

The Reds have a good top 10. After that, though, there’s a pretty big drop off and that, coupled with some key injuries, is why I think you see the records you see right now. Take Chattanooga for example – they are missing Cam Collier. He hit 20 home runs last year. The two guys who have made 29 of the 34 starts at first base for the Lookouts this season are hitting a combined .158/.249/.237. It’s possible Collier could have also hit that poorly, but it’s unlikely. Having someone hitting even league average there is probably worth a couple of wins given just how bad the production has been from that position alone.

Is there any reason to think Tyson Lewis’ 119.4 MPH exit velocity wasn’t legit?

When you first see it of course you think that something is up. That kind of thing just doesn’t add up in your head because it’s so rare. At the same time all of his other hits have been absolute missiles, too, including his 115 MPH home run last night. Even in the game with the 119, he had a 110 and every other player on the field – pitcher and hitter – seemed to be in the normal velocity range for exit velo and pitch velo.

Do you think Connor Phillips will succeed in the MLB bullpen this year?

The results this season haven’t been encouraging, but most of them also came while he was rehabbing back from an injury. Still, he’s walked four batters in 5.1 innings and that’s pretty much in line with what he looked like when he was struggling last year. It’s not about the stuff with him, it’s about the execution of it and after last season and the early returns this season, I wouldn’t bet on it. But pitchers, far more often than hitters, can sometimes find a way to just completely flip the script and turn things around on a dime. We’ve seen him have plenty of success in the past, so if he can figure out/get back to what he was doing at that point, then it could all happen really quickly.

Are you buying Hector Rodriguez’s improved plate approach and what do you see as his ceiling?

I’m cautiously optimistic about his improved approach/discipline. In speaking with Reds farm director Jeremy Farrell about Rodriguez for a piece I wrote at Baseball America he noted that they’ve talked with him about where to be more selective and more aggressive, but also that he’s simply maturing, too. That’s not a surprise given that we are talking about a guy who just turned 21 in March.

When looking at the overall numbers we can see that he is swinging significantly less often than he has ever before. This season he’s only swinging at 48.5% of the pitches he’s been thrown. Last season that was 56.8%. In 2023 it was 62.9%. Before that we don’t have enough pitch data to know what the true rates were. So the numbers are showing some real progress over the last few seasons and this feels like it’s just another step in the right direction.

As for his ceiling, I think you’re looking at a guy who could be a solid starting outfielder. The power is below-average, but he’s got enough to keep pitchers honest because he can show enough pop to his pull side to hit double-digit home runs. I think if everything comes together for him you’re looking at a guy who hits for a high average (.280-ish with peak years being better) with 10-15 home runs and solid defense.

The upside isn’t huge, but I think it’s a solid upside and one with more likelihood of being reached than that of a lot of other guys. I do think he’s got bat-to-ball skills that a lot of guys simply don’t, and he can get to the barrel better than most, too.