College Football Cheat Sheet: Separation Saturday

The last weekend college football Saturday in October has arrived. It will give us some separation in Week 9. We are separating pretenders from contenders in the race towards the 12-team playoff.

Most of the attention will be on the SEC this weekend but there is a monster game in the American and multiple Big Ten teams will be unofficially eliminated from playoff contention this weekend. Meanwhile, we could be in for some absolute chaos in the Big 12.

We’ve got a balanced slate with some fun conference matchups. KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet is back to set the table.

The Slate

Gambling Corner

Want spread plays? We got spread plays.

— Luckett’s Locks: Dogs Are Howling

Spend the 2025 Kentucky football season with KSR Plus! We’re giving you behind-the-scenes intel you won’t find anywhere else. Join the most vibrant online community in BBN.

Subscribe to the KSR YouTube Channel for press conferences, interviews, original shows, fan features, and exclusive content.

Separation Saturday in SEC

Texas A&M (4-0), Alabama (4-0), and Georgia (4-1) sit atop the SEC standings with four league wins. Below them are five teams with just one conference loss. Two of those five will have two league losses with multiple games left to play after Saturday.

We will have a clearer picture of the SEC race after this weekend. We also might learn if the league will have a third head coach opening.

— Ole Miss at Oklahoma: Both teams lost their first big SEC game away from home this season. Ole Miss has remaining games against South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi State. A loss probably doesn’t prevent them from going 10-2. A win creates a 7-1 SEC path with a chance to get to Atlanta for the conference championship game for the first time. Oklahoma still has Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, and LSU on the slate. This one means more for the Sooners. A loss could start a collapse.

— Auburn at Arkansas: Bobby Petrino is looking for a win to keep the Arkansas job. Hugh Freeze is looking for a win to keep the firing patrol away. That create some intrigue for this game between two teams without a victory in league play.

— Missouri at Vanderbilt: Both teams sit at 6-1 (2-1) entering Week 9. “College GameDay” has made the trip to Nashville for this top-15 showdown. The winner will have a great shot to get to 10-2. That record likely means a College Football Playoff berth. This feels like a true playoff elimination game.

— Texas A&M at LSU: A&M is rolling and has a great chance to get to Atlanta but their four league wins have a combined record of 2-12. LSU has two close road losses to top-10 teams and now has their back against the wall in a night game at Death Valley. A road win for the Aggies would say a lot.

Important weekend for the other Big Ten teams competing for a playoff spot

Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon all seem headed for a record of 11-1 or better. That means that the biggest conference in college football is almost guaranteed to receive at least three bids. Can this conference get four teams in like last year? It depends if one second tier team can rise above the rest.

There are eight currently Big Ten teams with at least two losses. Six of them play each other this week while one other hits the road in a rivalry game. The potential playoff contender list could be cut in half after this week.

— Northwestern at Nebraska: Don’t look now but has been playing some good football since the Week 1 loss to Tulane that doesn’t exactly hurt the resume. The Wildcats have won three consecutive conference games and the win over UCLA is aging well. Nebraska played with fire against Cincinnati, Michigan State, and Maryland. They got burned by Minnesota. In a season with high expectations, this would be a bad home loss for the Huskers.

— Illinois at Washington: The Illini were a popular playoff dark horse pick before the season. They will be eliminated with a loss in Seattle on Saturday afternoon. However, a win would create a 10-2 path with remaining games against Rutgers, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Northwestern. Washington dropped a winnable game against Michigan last week and has a home game against Oregon on Thanksgiving weekend awaiting them. This game could determine if the Huskies are still alive in the playoff race when that rivalry game occurs.

— Minnesota at Iowa: Both teams dropped a winnable non-conference game on the road but are off to a 3-1 start in Big Ten play. The Gophers still have a road trip to Oregon left on the schedule. Iowa still has to go to USC and Nebraska but has the more manageable path to 10-2. This is a true playoff elimination game in Iowa City.

— Michigan at Michigan State: The Wolverines will be 9-2 (7-1) and hosting Ohio State on Thanksgiving Saturday if chalk holds. However, there are three remaining road games on the slate. This is the first one and it’s against the rival. Things are slipping away for Jonathan Smith early in his Michigan State tenure but this is the type of game that can help flip a tenure.

We could get Big 12 chaos on Saturday

BYU (4-0) and Cincinnati (4-0) are on top of the Big 12 standings after Arizona State (3-1) knocked off Texas Tech (3-1) last week. Houston (3-1) is also alive in this race. Don’t sleep on the two-loss teams (Iowa State, TCU, Utah, Baylor, Kansas, and Kansas State).

The chaos conference seems ready to deliver some good.

— BYU at Iowa State: Undefeated and ranked BYU is an underdog at reeling Iowa State. The Cyclones have dropped consecutive conference games, and are a loss on Saturday away from going a month without a win. Vegas might be telling us something here.

— BYU at Cincinnati: The Bears are one of those two-loss teams who could make a statement on Saturday. Cincinnati messed around in recent home games with Iowa State and UCF. Baylor has the firepower on offense to win a shootout in Nippert Stadium. However, a win for Scott Satterfield could create a clear path to the conference championship game with four games to play.

— Houston at Arizona State: I’m not sure anyone realizes that Houston is 6-1. Things are going well in year two for Willie Fritz but the schedule begins to get more difficult now. Arizona State is firmly in the hunt after last week’s win over Texas Tech. That head-to-head tiebreaker could matter. The Sun Devils have to go to Iowa State next week but get West Virginia, Colorado, and Arizona in the final three game. Kenny Dillingham‘s team sits in great position to potentially repeat in the Big 12.

The ACC is wide open

Eight teams in this league have one conference loss or less. One team (SMU) is undefeated in league play and not ranked. Literally anything is possible here. These are the two games to pay attention to this weekend.

— SMU at Wake Forest: The Mustangs are 0-2 in the Big 12 but 3-0 against the ACC this season. Rhett Lashlee has yet to lose an ACC regular season game. Wake Forest has been a tough out at home. A road win for the Ponies would create a monster matchup in Dallas with Miami next weekend.

— NC State at Pittsburgh: The Panthers have been rolling ever since making a quarterback change. Pitt (5-2, 3-1) plays Georgia Tech and Miami in their final two games. This team will control its own destiny if it keeps winning but NC State is off a bye and has the offensive firepower to maintain pace in a shootout.

South Florida-Memphis might be the game of the day

All signs point to the winner of the American securing the Group of Six bid for the 2025 College Football Playoff. Navy (4-0), South Florida (3-0), Tulane (3-0), Memphis (2-1), North Texas (2-1), East Carolina (2-1), and Temple (2-1) are all still alive. But one game stands above the rest.

Memphis will host ranked South Florida just a week after a shocking loss to UAB. The Tigers need this one badly. Meanwhile, the Bulls still have a road game against Navy on the slate in November but will be in great shape to make the conference championship game.

A loss would all but eliminate Memphis. That could allow some teams looking for a coach to start pushing hard for Ryan Silverfield.