College Football Playoff bracket turmoil following conference championships

You really didn’t expect this convoluted college football season to smoothly conclude after the turbulence of the past three months. If anything, the championship weekend intensified the situation, for better or worse, depending on your perspective. “Thank you, Jesus,” commented Clemson coach Dabo Swinney following the Tigers’ shocking win in the ACC championship game.

And honestly, who can dispute that assertion after witnessing the events unfold?

Among all the unexpected outcomes in conference championship clashes, none was quite as shocking as Clemson’s 34-31 triumph that propelled the Tigers into the College Football Playoff ― while possibly eliminating SMU.

Clemson was ahead by 17 points in the fourth quarter, but SMU drew level with a 16-play, 79-yard drive culminating in a touchdown pass from Kevin Jennings to Roderick Daniels Jr. with just 16 seconds remaining. That left Clemson with just enough time. Adam Randall, a third-string kick returner replacing two injured athletes, ran back the following kickoff for 41 yards. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik connected with Antonio Williams for 17 yards to the SMU 38, setting the stage for a daunting 56-yard field goal attempt ― from a team that had previously suffered five blocked kicks this season. And Nolan Hauser, one of the three kickers Clemson has utilized this year, successfully made the kick.“SMU,” Swinney remarked, “They better be in the freaking playoff.” Well, Dabo, that’s the pressing question. For SMU and several other teams on the cusp of the 12-team tournament. Particularly following a wild concluding weekend. WILD DAY: Georgia, Clemson headlines winners and losers as playoff possibilities unfold

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At this juncture, following an array of the unthinkable, and the more convoluted CFP debates, the only certainty is No. 1 Oregon. Even that might be tenuous.

After observing Oregon outscore Penn State 45-37 in the Big Ten championship, it should be apparent to everyone that this tournament is completely up for grabs. Penn State, which found it difficult to achieve first downs against the Big Ten’s top defenses, rushed for 292 yards and amassed 518 total yards ― doing as they pleased against the Oregon defense.

This shouldn’t be surprising given the events that have transpired this season ― all leading up to Saturday’s championship matches.

Georgia bested Texas once more, this time with backup QB Gunner Stockton stepping in for the injured Carson Beck. Arizona State, the bottom team in the Pac-12 in 2023, clinched the Big 12 title in 2024.

SMU invested $200 million to join the ACC, finishing the season undefeated in conference play. Then Clemson happened, and by the end of the night, Swinney and the ESPN broadcast team were advocating for SMU. Not that it will make any difference.

So yes, the madness of the so-called meaningless championship weekend continued. It intensified ― leaving the CFP selection committee with 15 deserving teams vying for 12 positions. And five worthy conference champions competing for four first-round byes.

In other words: some people are going to be upset when the bracket is unveiled Sunday at noon.

The Boogeyman Georgia appeared vulnerable throughout the season, yet triumphed in the SEC with a backup QB. That was Bulldogs coach Kirby Smart after the match, standing on the victory stage after winning the most prestigious conference in college football with a backup who had thrown just 35 career passes, lamenting the schedule distributed by the league. Yes, he truly did.

Arizona State, once among the weakest Power Five conference teams in 2023, suffered losses by 52, 36, and 36 points in their last three games. At one point last year, the Sun Devils faced Fresno State (at home) and were shut out 29-0.

That identical team – bolstered by transfer portal reinforcements – lost only twice in 2024: once by eight at Texas Tech, and again by ten at Cincinnati with backup quarterback Jeff Sims stepping in for the injured Sam Leavitt. The very same Leavitt who accounted for four touchdowns in the Big 12 championship.

Boise State secured 11 consecutive victories and not only advanced to the playoff with a Mountain West Conference title but also has a strong case for a first-round bye.

Indiana defeated just one opponent with a winning record and is assured a CFP spot due to its victories over 11 underwhelming teams. By underwhelming, I also mean Michigan.

If that doesn’t highlight how utterly disgraceful Ohio State’s fourth consecutive defeat to Michigan was, I don’t know what will.

Army, similar to Indiana, also achieved 11 wins. The Black Knights secured the American Athletic championship, and with a victory over Navy next week, they will achieve 12 wins. If wins over weaker opponents suffice for CFP consideration, then Army, step right up!

Clemson stumbled in the first game of the regular season (against Georgia) and the last (against South Carolina), its two most challenging encounters of the year. Then they went on to win the ACC. Again.Miami kicked off the season with nine consecutive wins, but faltered in two of three matches to close out the season ― both as double-digit favorites ― and has resorted to questioning Alabama’s qualifications since it lost three games. And speaking of Alabama, let’s reinstate some reason in this chaotic season. After dropping two games to teams that ended with a 6-6 record (including a 21-point loss at Oklahoma), and wrapping up the season with a victory over Mercer and a feeble Auburn team, the Tide finds itself in a familiar position. The BCS/CFP chosen entity. There has never been a program so rewarded for so many frustrating defeats during crucial moments of the season. Why not maintain that trend now? Alabama’s justification for CFP inclusion boils down to this: common opponents. Alabama conquered both Georgia and South Carolina, while Georgia and South Carolina claimed victories over Clemson. Meanwhile, Clemson triumphed over SMU. And that entire notion suggesting that teams contesting in conference championship games shouldn’t face repercussions for losing? Georgia went 12-0 yet fell by three points to Alabama in the previous year’s SEC championship game. And plummeted from the No. 1 seed to outside the CFP. Welcome to the chaos, CFP selection committee. Now, go identify 12 deserving teams.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.