Examination

Should the events of the past week lead to the loss of just two players, Air Force football is likely to bounce back.

However, if this indicates a pattern, the program may face competitive challenges.

Two sophomore defenders – OLB David Santiago and DB Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner – declared their intentions to enter the transfer portal when it opens on Monday. While this doesn’t automatically mean they are departing, it often results in that outcome.

This is not a new phenomenon. The last transfer cycle saw 3,843 entries in the FBS portal, including several athletes from Air Force. Over 20% of FBS rosters consisted of transfers.

What distinguishes this situation as troubling? It’s the fact that other teams outside of the service academies can recruit players lost to the portal with incoming transfers. Air Force is now losing a different class of player to this one-way street, raising concerns about a potentially harmful trend.

The athletes typically lost by the Falcons are those whose playing time appears obstructed. Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner had established themselves as significant contributors before departing, which is a rare occurrence for Air Force football.

In the last two decades, notable instances of Falcons losing young, established players include linebacker Anthony Schlagel, who transferred to Ohio State post-sophomore year, and slot receiver Micah Davis, who has since played for Utah State and Ole Miss.

Cadets can leave a service academy before their junior year, so Air Force mainly needs to be concerned about player retention up to that milestone, and in football, they have had considerable success with that.

This is partly because sophomores typically do not ascend to prominent roles in coach Troy Calhoun’s program, although there are exceptions.

In the past decade, a formidable all-sophomore Air Force squad could be assembled featuring safeties Weston Steelhammer and Trey Taylor, running backs Jacobi Owens, Timothy McVey, and Brad Roberts, as well as defensive linemen Alex Hansen and Ryan Watson. The potential roster could extend further.

The Falcons benefit from the fact that many of their players possess unique size or skill sets that align with their system’s requirements, particularly offensively, which makes them less appealing in the open market.

More than anything, the academy’s structure serves to insulate against cadets leaving during their second year. After enduring basic training, recognition, survival training, and at least three semesters filled with rigorous credit hours, cadets have invested significant effort.

Nevertheless, the process of leaving has become simpler and carries its own enticements.

Since 2021, NCAA Division-I athletes can transfer without needing to sit out a year, prompting an uptick in transfer activity.

As NIL opportunities continue to evolve, the allure of immediate financial incentives grows stronger. In theory, this shouldn’t heavily impact the academies as they have never consistently competed for recruits attracted by substantial NIL offers. However, this could present challenges if non-Power Conference teams can increasingly offer better compensation and if the Falcons can cultivate talent from their younger classes.

It’s possible that the cases of Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner reflect them being undervalued as recruits, with their on-field performance revealing the need for reevaluation.

So, what steps can be taken?

Air Force is already proactive in safeguarding younger players, restricting many from the roster and preventing sophomores or freshmen from engaging with media.

Limiting playing time for sophomores is not an option, as Calhoun has been clear about utilizing available players each week.

Recruiting individuals who specifically value military life and demonstrate greater loyalty to the academy might seem like a solution, but this is already in motion. Moreover, circumstances can evolve. How can anyone anticipate how an athlete will respond when they excel and receive an enticing offer free from the academy’s obligations?

Perhaps no Air Force program is more efficient at identifying committed players than coach Mike Kazlausky’s baseball team, which often directs most of its athletes to pilot training, special forces, or graduate school. Nevertheless, even this team has witnessed departures to LSU, Vanderbilt, and Xavier in the last three years, all while the Falcons have celebrated conference championships.

Notably, one of those transfers was Paul Skenes, who has climbed to prominence as an NL All-Star Game starter and Rookie of the Year. His case highlights that Air Force sometimes recruits athletes who reveal potential that propels them beyond expected levels, and Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner might fit that scenario.

Air Force football already places significant emphasis on loyalty through its traditions. Only three coaches in the nation have tenures longer than Calhoun, an Air Force alumnus, whose staff is also filled with graduates.

The overall status of service academy football remains robust. Army recently secured the American Athletic Conference title and, boasting an 11-1 record, aims for a College Football Playoff spot. Navy stands at 8-3 and had a stint in the Top 25 this season. Air Force averaged 10 wins over the last four complete seasons, and despite this year’s challenges due to youth and injuries, they rallied to finish just one win short of bowl eligibility.

There’s no emergency at this point. Yet.

However, to glimpse potential future outcomes, one simply needs to look at Air Force men’s basketball. From Tre’ Coggins to Matt Mooney, through Jake Heidbreder and Rytis Petraitis, the Falcons have repeatedly encountered key departures in the last ten years, resulting in struggles.

Again, we are discussing just two players. But the structure of college athletics is poised to transform this into something much graver for Air Force. Calhoun is acutely aware of this reality.

“Let’s face it, if there were 32 NFL teams and 31 could acquire free agents while one couldn’t … if you were that one, you would want a little more parity,” Calhoun remarked in August. “But it’s not.”

Air Force has previously lost players and managed to flourish. Injuries and academy challenges arise, yet others fill those roles, and operations continue. As talented as Santiago and Tuioti-Mariner are, there’s no reason this situation must be different.

But as this season illustrated, assumptions can be misleading. Occasionally, inexperience necessitates reliance on younger players leading to growing pains. If this initiates a trend where rapidly developing players are soon sought after elsewhere, when does the fruitful return occur?

Apocalyptic scenarios are not imminent. Yet if a day arrives when Air Force and its service academy counterparts can’t reliably compete, the catalyst will likely mirror this situation.