Although it’s only been one week of regular-season game action, the high-leverage landscape has changed drastically since my last preseason article. Things have been particularly challenging for Alexis Díaz and David Bednar. In 2023, they combined for 76 saves, but a closer’s performance can be erratic from year to year. Díaz was placed on the injured list before the season began with a hamstring issue. Bednar was demoted after a slow start, and he had a rough spring and lost the closer role last August.
In Texas, fantasy managers believed Chris Martin would be the preferred save option, but Luke Jackson has emerged in the role instead. Liam Hendriks also opened the season on the injured list after experiencing soreness in his surgically repaired elbow, resulting in Aroldis Chapman being the closer in Boston (unless matchups dictate otherwise).
I’ll touch on these topics and more below, but first …
Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary save share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, the player may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Match-up-based: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
- Closer competition: This team’s manager has not decided on his preferred closer option. Each league’s quick synopsis will highlight these situations.
- In flux: His manager has not confirmed the projected closer based on past struggles or rough spring appearances.
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2HTVI/2/
Notes and Observations
Baltimore Orioles: Command has been a slight issue for Félix Bautista, who is returning from Tommy John surgery. It’s a limited sample, but he’s posted three strikeouts against three walks with a 49% strike rate. Better days lie ahead for “The Mountain,” but with a managed workload, his initial projected save total may have been too aggressive.
Boston Red Sox: As referenced above, Chapman was named the preferred save share but made his first appearance of the year facing Corey Seager’s lineup pocket in the bottom of the eighth, not as a traditional closer. Justin Slaten secured the save in that contest, which represents the ancillary save option for those in deeper formats.
Chicago White Sox: This team has not produced a save chance, but Mike Clevinger has made both of his relief appearances in the eighth inning. He was mentioned as an option for closing, but until usage patterns form, it’s all speculation.
Detroit Tigers: Tommy Kahnle converted the team’s first save chance in the ninth inning of a win in Seattle. Will he remain atop the hierarchy? Last year’s saves leader (Jason Foley) began the season in Triple A, and the save leader from 2023 (Alex Lange) continues his rehab after being designated to the 60-day injured list, but he could be a factor later this season. Until clarity emerges, it’s reliever roulette with manager A.J. Hinch.
Kansas City Royals: A truncated spring may affect Carlos Estévez early on, but he opened the season as the preferred option for saves, with Lucas Erceg being the highest-leverage reliever (HLR).
Texas Rangers: One of the most challenging parts of projecting saves is volume, which can fluctuate. Luke Jackson has already converted three of four save opportunities. Can he be this year’s iteration of Kirby Yates for manager Bruce Bochy? Time will tell, but he’s earning a longer leash with each appearance.
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0i606/2/
Notes and Observations
Arizona Diamondbacks: A.J. Puk has the team’s first two saves, but Justin Martinez remains a leverage factor. Martinez was electric on Tuesday, striking out the side against the Yankees’ 3-4-5 hitters, including Aaron Judge. Without a closer being named, these two will share save chances based on lineup pockets in the late innings.
Atlanta Braves: Not addressing the leverage ladder’s depth this offseason may have been a mistake. Raisel Iglesias will continue being a trusted closer, but getting leads to him in the ninth will be an adventure unless someone emerges as a trusted option with Joe Jiménez out because of knee surgery.
Chicago Cubs: It’s early, but Ryan Pressly has not endeared himself to his new franchise’s fan base, though he has recorded two saves. However, his -15 K/BB percentage and 2.75 WHIP across his first four innings represent cause for concern. He’s leaning into his curve and throwing fewer four-seam fastballs. Will this be his path forward? If not, Porter Hodge awaits as a viable replacement. Stay tuned.
Cincinnati Reds: Díaz and Terry Francona did not feel like a match made in heaven before the former’s hamstring injury. The team has spun positivity about the closer finding his form, but Díaz’s command remains the primary concern for fantasy managers. Emilio Pagán has posted the only save through the Reds’ first six games, but the savvy long-term play may be Graham Ashcraft.
Colorado Rockies: Victor Vodnik and Seth Halvorsen competed for the closer role all spring. Although Vodnik produced better numbers during spring training, he suffered a loss on Opening Day and worked in a set-up capacity on his second outing. Halvorsen has converted the team’s only save this season and taken over the top in our leverage chart. He has the velocity; the question is, can he command his arsenal well enough to keep his ratios manageable for fantasy managers? If not, saves may be fluid based on performance throughout the season.
Los Angeles Dodgers: There is still no clear definition of the totality of save chances for Tanner Scott. He has converted two of three opportunities but will share them with Blake Treinen and teammates throughout the season.
Miami Marlins: First-year manager Clayton McCullough indicated a save share could ensue between Calvin Faucher and Jesús Tinoco. Tinoco has been placed on the 15-day injured list, and Faucher has struggled while working with reduced velocities. Veteran Anthony Bender has recorded the team’s only save and could emerge as the preferred save share, but this remains a leverage ladder in flux.
Philadelphia Phillies: Jordan Romano and José Alvarado have presented themselves as the preferred options for save chances. However, how those chances are distributed remains unknown because of manager Rob Thomson’s “floating closer” concept during high-leverage events.
Pittsburgh Pirates: The combination of poor defense, a wild pitch and a minor-league option for Bednar have led to a demotion to Triple A for the Pirates’ erstwhile closer. It’s been a precipitous fall for the 2023 National League co-leader for saves. Can Bednar regain his confidence? In the Pirates’ first save chance since Bednar was demoted, Dennis Santana worked a scoreless ninth. He represents the likely short-term replacement. Since July 20 of last year, he has 32 appearances spanning 35.1 innings, with 38 strikeouts against nine walks (22.5 K-BB percentage), a 2.86 SIERA, and a 0.71 WHIP.
*Note: Relievers on the Rise, Closer Concerns, and Leaderboards will debut next week when a larger sample size has been accrued.
► Updated Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Save Stashes
Ancillary Save Options
- Blake Treinen (LAD)
- Yennier Cano (BAL)
- Chris Martin (TEX)
- Justin Slaten (BOS)
- Tyler Holton (DET)
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios.
- Garrett Whitlock (BOS)
- Ben Casparius (LAD)
- Keegan Akin (BAL)
Statistical Credits (for games played through April 2): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey.
(Top photo of Graham Ashcraft: Jeff Dean / Getty Images)
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