Ohhhhh so Snell may actually still be the same guy he’s been for years without great value for fantasy leagues in April/May and then stupid amazing for the three to four months thereafter? At least you’re getting Wins this time around. In all seriousness, his curve went 14/28 strikes and wasn’t the savior pitch that it […]
Ohhhhh so Snell may actually still be the same guy he’s been for years without great value for fantasy leagues in April/May and then stupid amazing for the three to four months thereafter? At least you’re getting Wins this time around. In all seriousness, his curve went 14/28 strikes and wasn’t the savior pitch that it was in the second half last year. The changeup failed to be a reliable pal of a third pitch, too. BUT he did do one thing well and it sure is fitting. He executed the BSB. That’s fun to see.
MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs PHI (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 93 pitches.
Opening day is here and among all the studs, one of the few non-aces stood out among the rest. MacKenzie Gore had a game for the ages, obliterating the Phillies via 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hits, 0 BBs, 13 Ks – 20 Whiffs, 39% CSW, 93 pitches, demanding a Golden Goal and hoping to carry it into a superstar season. Didn’t you rank Gore as the worst of all 28 starters in your morning rankings? Uhhhh, yes. LET ME EXPLAIN.
Aces gonna ace. He’s just so dang good.
This was supposed to be Bibee but the fella had food poisoning after allegedly eating Chipotle, forcing Lively to step in. His 89/90 mph heater comes in flat with seven feet of extension, though he spotted said four-seamer middle-away to LHB, with middling sinkers inside to RHB. It’s awfully boring but it generally works and he’s not terrible, y’all. AL-Only leagues should be thrilled with Lively and I’d even suggest him as a 15-team Toby this year. I know.
The four-seamer is still the same great shape at 96 mph, too, though I still wish he had better command of it. Nick. The result. I know, I know. The pitch held a 0.518 xwOBAcon, though, with 6/41 whiffs (solid, not absurd). The cutter still exists and it also worked for 3/6 whiffs against RHB, and I dig the rare usage to make it count when thrown.
Let’s see how every other SP did Thursday:
Framber Valdez (HOU) vs NYM (W) – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 90 pitches.
Yikes. He looked solid at times but way too many longballs. The curve was fine, everything was just hit more than normal. He’s The Great Undulator. Welcome to the experience.
Sean Burke (CHW) vs LAA (W) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 73 pitches.
Wow. Webb threw 30% changeups last year. Here? Nine total for 11.5% usage. Super weird. He favored the cutter (13) and sweeper (17) far more, and the overall strike rate was terrible. The sinker was its normal self at 70% strikes with 15/37 called strikes, but it was roughly 50% strikes with secondaries. Strange game all around. No need to hit the alarm bells.
Luis Severino (ATH) @ SEA (ND) – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 4 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 99 pitches.
Jeez Gallen, I know you wear glasses, but I didn’t realize you were one with the fours. His four-seamer was terrible with a sub 50% strike rate and the curve returning just 1/18 whiffs is all you really need to know. I’m scared Gallen’s fastball is too poor without enough in the arsenal to save him across a full year. Will he have productive starts along the way? Sure. I’m concerned we’re getting a HIPSTER and not a Holly.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs OAK (ND) – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 8 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 83 pitches.
It’s cool to see the changeup usage jump up a bunch to near 30% of the time against RHB, while everything else was pretty standard affair. Runs happen. I know, wild, isn’t it? He didn’t locate the slider perfectly, and so it goes. And don’t freak out that Grant Holmes tossed an inning in relief – he’s expected to be the fifth arm in the rotation and threw a standard bullpen in the game instead of on the side. We typically see an SP #4/#5 throw an inning on opening day. He literally threw just nine pitches. Relax y’all.
Zack Wheeler (PHI) @ WSN (ND) – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 97 pitches.
His 91 mph velocity from the spring is still here and he adapted to feature curves, sinkers, cutters, and sweepers more than usual. Props to him for the adjustment, though I question whether we’re going to like how this turns out over time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs MIL (W) – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 89 pitches.
I didn’t know he added a new slider, turning the “slider” from last year into a proper cutter at 90 mph. That slider piece had 4-5 ticks lower velocity in favor of granting a ton more drop, while he leaned on the pitch heavily against LHB. We’re talking from 30% usage to 51% usage, and it obliterated the Phillies for 8/23 whiffs and a 70% strike rate. Get that hook out of here, SLIDERS ALL DAY.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) vs BOS (ND) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks – 17 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 87 pitches.
Sevy’s sweeper had moments and his heater hit 99 mph in his final inning, leading to a start that made all managers thrilled they took a chance in Seattle. I think we can determine that Seattle will be favorable to pitchers once again. As for Severino, I’d be cautious to start him against the Cubs – his sweeper returned just a 52% strike rate here, while the heater wasn’t super impressive. Maybe the cutter can be a solid offering to LHB and I love the sinker finding the inside edge to RHB consistently (sub .100 xwOBAcon!), but it’s not enough juice.
Zach Eflin (BAL) @ TOR (W) – 6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 78 pitches.
Aces gonna struggle against the best offense in baseball. Go figure. The sinker wasn’t as effective against LHB as we saw last year and just eight whiffs isn’t the stupid good version of Skubal, but the velocity is there and his changeup should go more than 3/22 whiffs moving forward.
Paul Skenes (PIT) @ MIA (ND) – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 94 pitches.
Alcantara is so back. The walks came later in the game when he was a little gassed (91 pitches?! WHOA) and he nearly made it through five at a more traditional Sandy pitch count. He sat 97 mph, had absurd ride on his sinkers, and even favored a ton of sliders early in the game for 5/16 whiffs. Get. PUMPED. Those walks are not the fella.
Hunter Greene (CIN) vs SFG (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 15 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 84 pitches.
Ayyyy nice work Eflin! But two strikeouts. It’s the cheap Win you wanted. Is this sustainable? Probably not? He should be a Toby at least and with only six whiffs (5/16 on sweepers at least! 21% usage! That’s new!), it’ll be hard to turn into a Holly.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) @ NYY (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 31% CSW, 93 pitches.
The velocity is absurd at 99+ mph (+1.6 ticks higher!) and an extra inch of vert compared to last year at 17-18″. But that wasn’t the best upgrade in Cincy today. That was the CAMERA ANGLE. Oh my lord, THANK YOU CINCY. And yeah, seeing 63% strikes from the slider is what we want. Things are great.
Garrett Crochet (BOS) @ TEX (ND) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 88 pitches.
Yikes. I’ve thought about the sinker being the chaotic, inconsistent pitch, but it was the 70% strike rate offering with everything else hovering 50%. Mr. Adobe, that can’t happen. Sir. I think that’ll be better moving forward, but let’s keep our focus on it.
Sonny Gray (STL) vs MIN (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks – 12 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 77 pitches.
Well look at you! The only possible streaming pick worked out well as Burke featured a slower slider with more drop at a 71% strike rate (5/28 whiffs is fine with me, though I want a few more). However, the 94 mph velocity we saw in the spring was unfortunately prophetic of today’s 94.2 mph clip. The curve also disappointed a bit without a single whiff on fourteen thrown and while I want to be thrusting my arm in the air in celebration, I can’t ignore the lower velocity and questionable curve performance that suggests worse results against a better offense. Like the Tigers next week? Well a better offense than that. I’d roll with Burke again if I picked him up for this one.
Pablo López (MIN) @ STL (L) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 87 pitches.
Pew pew pew…? Ragans didn’t have his best command in this one although the changeup was great at missing bats (5/13 whiffs), but just 19% usage against RHB is a bit weird. The velocity at 95.3 mph and scaling down across the start is a little worrisome, too, but he’ll likely have higher than a 61% strike rate on the pitch moving forward. Given the slider went 7/8 strikes and the cutter had nearly a 70% strike rate, I’m not overly concerned. Just get that velo back…
Blake Snell (LAD) vs DET (W) – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 2 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 92 pitches.
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Clay Holmes (NYM) @ HOU (L) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 26% CSW, 89 pitches.
Man, PabLó looks so good and seemingly allows more hits than you feel like he should while watching him. The changeup was FILTHY in this one with five inches more drop than last year’s iteration, with stupid good location to LHB, yielding 5/18 whiffs, which has me all kinds of pumped for the year ahead. Sweepers were generally solid, sinkers were effective inside to RHB, and 95 mph velocity is all good here. I’m buying.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs PIT (ND) – 4.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks – 16 Whiffs, 33% CSW, 91 pitches.
He didn’t look great early, but his two runs were cheap porch shots to right, while the change did a great job complementing the four-seamer to LHB. He favored the curve over sliders to RHB (just two sliders?!) and the four-seamer was as good as we could hope. I’m so glad Professor Chaos disappeared as he settled in and this is as good as we could have hoped.
Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) @ CHW (L) – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 5 Ks – 11 Whiffs, 30% CSW, 87 pitches.
Tanner Houck vs. Jack Leiter – This is really more about Leiter than Houck. I really hope we see the dude we want him to be.
Logan Webb (SFG) @ CIN (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks – 7 Whiffs, 35% CSW, 78 pitches.
Welcome to the SP Roundup, my daily fantasy baseball article reviewing every starting pitcher’s performance from every Thursday game. I apologize for the jokes written in my delirium in advance. Have questions? Ask me during my office hours on Playback.tv weekday mornings from 10 am-12 pm ET.
Cole Ragans (KCR) vs CLE (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks – 10 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 83 pitches.
We saw 96 mph with 6.9 feet of extension (slightly down from 7.1 feet last year) and it wasn’t his best overall command. He’ll produce more moving forward, don’t worry.
Ben Lively (CLE) @ KCR (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 67 pitches.
The changeup is still here and that’s awesome. 20% usage against RHB is what we want to see, while the slider did its job against LHB, with 9/28 whiffs overall. The heater held 18″ of vert at 95 mph (we’ll take that) and all is good here. Be happy with Rodón.
Chris Sale (ATL) @ SDP (ND) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks – 14 Whiffs, 29% CSW, 84 pitches.
A PQS isn’t exactly what we wanted against the White Sox, and it’s not the best version of Kikuchi. His heater was over a tick down at 94/95 mph (not 95/96 mph) with an inch less vert, while the slider wasn’t as reliable as we’ve seen in the past, with far less break at a tick less velocity…That all sounds bad. Yeah, it’s not great. I’m a little worried. Let’s hope it’s just rust.
Michael King (SDP) vs ATL (ND) – 2.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 3 Ks – 6 Whiffs, 24% CSW, 76 pitches.
This is awesome. I was heavily into Gore last year and I wanted to believe he’d be able to put it together. Sadly, I’m conflicted. My first instinct is what I’ve held for the whole off-season: Gore is a HIPSTER who will find a groove one day with 70%+ strikes on his heater, slider, and curve (that’s not holding), and disappoint in the next. My second is that the new slider is a huge addition and it could mean more stability moving forward. Is this a reliable slider? Who knows. At the very least, we obviously hold and hope for the best.
Justin Steele (CHC) @ ARI (W) – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 4 Whiffs, 25% CSW, 77 pitches.
Aces gonna ace. He’s still got it. But he allowed two runs to the Marlins! Welp, gotta drop him.
Zac Gallen (ARI) vs CHC (L) – 4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks – 5 Whiffs, 27% CSW, 83 pitches.
Eovaldi! Buddy! 10/22 whiffs on the curve is bonkers. Eovaldi hasn’t had the greatest curve over the years and to see it absolutely wrecking the Red Sox is so dang cool. I’m a little skeptical that it will stick but yeaaaah that’s awesome. We’re rolling with this against the Reds, of course.
Tarik Skubal (DET) @ LAD (L) – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 2 Ks – 8 Whiffs, 28% CSW, 80 pitches.
His command wasn’t nearly as good as we’ve seen in the past. Don’t sweat it, it’s safe to expect that it will return shortly.
José Berríos (TOR) vs BAL (L) – 5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks – 13 Whiffs, 37% CSW, 90 pitches.
The curveball was great (9/31 whiffs) while also inconsistent (58% strike rate), with the sinker as the only strike offering Valdez could depend on. Typical Valdez. I guess he can keep getting away with it, eh?
Game of the Day
Jeeeeeeez, the King was clubbed and it’s all thanks to failure to earn strikes. Sub 60% strikes on everything is not the King way in the slightest. On top of that, he got just 1/21 changeup whiffs – a pitch he used 37% of the time against LHB. The stuff was absurd, though, boasting crazy high horizontal ride on both the change and sinker (23″ of horizontal movement is 100th percentile y’all, +7.4″ since last year on the sinker!) and it excites me for the future. He likely needs another start or two to lock in.
Aces gonna ace. He looked awesome at 95/96 mph and with a ton of deadly splitters. Too bad the offense couldn’t back him up earlier in the game, though he would have had a better time if he could locate the four-seamer or slider a bit better. But he earned 23/24 strikes on the four-seamer! Pretty ridiculous, eh? Just two whiffs. TWO. A ton of contact and if he could just locate the thing in tandem with his slider and splitter, he’d be unhittable. But fine, I’ll just take being incredible at home and call it a day.
Featured image by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter)
But Nick?! Where are the streaming picks? – I’ve moved them to the daily SP Matchups & Streamer Rankings article.
