Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).AdvertisementSnap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”Scoop City NewsletterFree, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox. Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.Sign UpRunning Back TouchesThis is the final market share report of the year, but I will update the sheet next week, gratis. Happy holidays!There’s not much for waivers this week, but there are tough calls to make in your Week 16 lineups.Jerome Ford is rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues (44 percent), so he could be on waivers in your league. But should we start him against the Bengals if we have him on our teams, or we can pick him up? I’d have him about RB20, given that Jameis Winston is benched. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has basically no floor except whatever we think the Bengals’ defense provides (which could be somewhat high). Maybe Ford is 15th. My point is he’s not an automatic start.Kendre Miller has a brutal matchup against Green Bay, and we’re not sure Alvin Kamara is even out. If Kamara plays, that’s probably the worst-case scenario for managers of both players. Miller and Kamara will have to contribute mostly as receivers, and they won’t do much in the passing game without Derek Carr as their QB.Tyjae Spears is similarly rostered (45 percent), so he’s another RB you can possibly get for nothing. Again, he’s a low-end RB2 for me, though that goes up a little if Mason Rudolph plays (more expected passes/completions/first downs). Rudolph is likely starting (see below).AdvertisementI can see people thinking Tyler Allgeier is in play. He typically gets 10 touches … maybe a TD. But the Falcons offense is completely broken due to Kirk Cousins being toast. I’d rather play Emanuel Wilson, given the likelihood of a lot of rushes from the Packers’ backup RB at home against the Saints on Monday night.Chase Brown (No. 3) is an automatic starter, of course, and the Cleveland defense is not nearly as good as its reputation. More automatic starts: No. 6 Rico Dowdle and No. 18 Bucky Irving, who is enjoying a historically efficient rookie rushing season. I guess No. 19 Rachaad White, who keeps scoring TDs, has to be played, too.Breece Hall (No. 24) is fringy, given his knee injury. The same applies to the Chiefs RBs (No. 25 Kareem Hunt and No. 26 Isiah Pacheco). Giants Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary (No. 29 and No. 28, respectively) are in the same bucket of plausibility in Flex10 formats if you have elite receivers.Receiver TargetsAs for receivers on waivers, generally, I’d rank them Romeo Doubs, Jalen Coker, Rashod Bateman.The matchup with the Steelers is the major problem for Bateman. The Ravens are likely to score one to two TDs.I like Doubs (No. 55) more than the market because the top three Green Bay WRs each have two-TD ceilings and no floor. They’re exactly the same. So Doubs has a 20 to 33 percent chance of winning a playoff game for you, no different than Jayden Reed, even though Reed will be started in almost all deeper formats.Coker gets the Cardinals, a sort of a neutral matchup, in the Mayor of Munchkin City Bowl (winner gets to keep the ruby slippers).Jerry Jeudy (No. 2) is someone you have to sweat about playing now that DTR is replacing Jameis Winston — which is likely horrible for Jeudy … even against Cincy.Terry McLaurin (No. 11) has 10 TDs, so he’s an automatic start, right? Well, the Eagles are one of those rare pass defenses with a shutdown corner who shadows the No. 1 WR, forcing teams to make very unconventional decisions — or at least think about them. McLaurin had zero targets in 20 snaps against Quinyon Mitchell in their meeting in November.AdvertisementMany people who have been benching Keenan Allen (No. 4) should start him this week. Given that Allen plays the Lions (there is no “D” in Detroit), I’d definitely pick him over McLaurin.Trey McBride, at No. 12, was the top TE in market share. The narrative next year will be that too many of his points were derived from non-TD plays, and he’s not getting that many catches again. Well, my narrative is there is no such thing as a non-TD TE, so he’ll probably get 10 TDs next year. I will draft him like he had at least 30 more fantasy points in 2024.Brian Thomas Jr. was 14th, perfect for those with him on their teams.Our No. 1 waiver wire TE, Brenton Strange, was the fourth-highest-targeted TE. The Jaguars play the Raiders in “Lost Wages.” Strange finished behind Chig Okonkwo, but I need the Titans to play Mason Rudolph and not Will Levis to pick up Okonkwo. We know this is at least planned. The Tennessee #Titans are planning to make a switch at quarterback this week, source told ESPN. Mason Rudolph is the logical candidate to step in for starter Will Levis, who likely heads to the bench barring surprise. — Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) December 17, 2024If he’s starting again in Week 16, Stone Smartt (the last T stands for “Targets,” says my Yahoo colleague and podcast partner Scott Pianowski) is in the top 12 TE conversation – early game against the Broncos, who shut down WRs and don’t care about tight ends.(Top photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)

Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back. What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, […]

Target and touch totals are important but not as important as the market share. “Targets” is mostly a receiver stat (although there are some notable early exceptions). Touches are the currency of the running back.

What we’re doing is really simple. For pass-catchers, market share is targets divided by team pass attempts. For running backs, it is touches divided by team plays from scrimmage (not team touches, to be clear).

Snap counts, depth of target and type of touch (running back receptions are far more valuable than carries) are also important but will generally not be discussed here. This is pure market share. Consider this a primary tool for assessing waivers and trades.

Here’s the list. Be sure to select the current week, though all the weeks of the season will be archived, so you can get a multi-week sample on a player if you so desire. Also, note I put great thought into providing these stats weekly. The objective here is to respond quickly to present trends. Yearly stats smoothen everything out to a somewhat meaningless middle. As our Gene McCaffrey so wisely says, “To be very right, you have to be willing to be very wrong.”

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Running Back Touches

This is the final market share report of the year, but I will update the sheet next week, gratis. Happy holidays!

There’s not much for waivers this week, but there are tough calls to make in your Week 16 lineups.

Jerome Ford is rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues (44 percent), so he could be on waivers in your league. But should we start him against the Bengals if we have him on our teams, or we can pick him up? I’d have him about RB20, given that Jameis Winston is benched. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has basically no floor except whatever we think the Bengals’ defense provides (which could be somewhat high). Maybe Ford is 15th. My point is he’s not an automatic start.

Kendre Miller has a brutal matchup against Green Bay, and we’re not sure Alvin Kamara is even out. If Kamara plays, that’s probably the worst-case scenario for managers of both players. Miller and Kamara will have to contribute mostly as receivers, and they won’t do much in the passing game without Derek Carr as their QB.

Tyjae Spears is similarly rostered (45 percent), so he’s another RB you can possibly get for nothing. Again, he’s a low-end RB2 for me, though that goes up a little if Mason Rudolph plays (more expected passes/completions/first downs). Rudolph is likely starting (see below).

I can see people thinking Tyler Allgeier is in play. He typically gets 10 touches … maybe a TD. But the Falcons offense is completely broken due to Kirk Cousins being toast. I’d rather play Emanuel Wilson, given the likelihood of a lot of rushes from the Packers’ backup RB at home against the Saints on Monday night.

Chase Brown (No. 3) is an automatic starter, of course, and the Cleveland defense is not nearly as good as its reputation. More automatic starts: No. 6 Rico Dowdle and No. 18 Bucky Irving, who is enjoying a historically efficient rookie rushing season. I guess No. 19 Rachaad White, who keeps scoring TDs, has to be played, too.

Breece Hall (No. 24) is fringy, given his knee injury. The same applies to the Chiefs RBs (No. 25 Kareem Hunt and No. 26 Isiah Pacheco). Giants Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Devin Singletary (No. 29 and No. 28, respectively) are in the same bucket of plausibility in Flex10 formats if you have elite receivers.

Receiver Targets

As for receivers on waivers, generally, I’d rank them Romeo Doubs, Jalen Coker, Rashod Bateman.

The matchup with the Steelers is the major problem for Bateman. The Ravens are likely to score one to two TDs.

I like Doubs (No. 55) more than the market because the top three Green Bay WRs each have two-TD ceilings and no floor. They’re exactly the same. So Doubs has a 20 to 33 percent chance of winning a playoff game for you, no different than Jayden Reed, even though Reed will be started in almost all deeper formats.

Coker gets the Cardinals, a sort of a neutral matchup, in the Mayor of Munchkin City Bowl (winner gets to keep the ruby slippers).

Jerry Jeudy (No. 2) is someone you have to sweat about playing now that DTR is replacing Jameis Winston — which is likely horrible for Jeudy … even against Cincy.

Terry McLaurin (No. 11) has 10 TDs, so he’s an automatic start, right? Well, the Eagles are one of those rare pass defenses with a shutdown corner who shadows the No. 1 WR, forcing teams to make very unconventional decisions — or at least think about them. McLaurin had zero targets in 20 snaps against Quinyon Mitchell in their meeting in November.

Many people who have been benching Keenan Allen (No. 4) should start him this week. Given that Allen plays the Lions (there is no “D” in Detroit), I’d definitely pick him over McLaurin.

Trey McBride, at No. 12, was the top TE in market share. The narrative next year will be that too many of his points were derived from non-TD plays, and he’s not getting that many catches again. Well, my narrative is there is no such thing as a non-TD TE, so he’ll probably get 10 TDs next year. I will draft him like he had at least 30 more fantasy points in 2024.

Brian Thomas Jr. was 14th, perfect for those with him on their teams.

Our No. 1 waiver wire TE, Brenton Strange, was the fourth-highest-targeted TE. The Jaguars play the Raiders in “Lost Wages.” Strange finished behind Chig Okonkwo, but I need the Titans to play Mason Rudolph and not Will Levis to pick up Okonkwo. We know this is at least planned.

The Tennessee #Titans are planning to make a switch at quarterback this week, source told ESPN.

Mason Rudolph is the logical candidate to step in for starter Will Levis, who likely heads to the bench barring surprise.

— Jeremy Fowler (@JFowlerESPN) December 17, 2024

If he’s starting again in Week 16, Stone Smartt (the last T stands for “Targets,” says my Yahoo colleague and podcast partner Scott Pianowski) is in the top 12 TE conversation – early game against the Broncos, who shut down WRs and don’t care about tight ends.

(Top photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)