Quarterback Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs Mayfield faces an excellent matchup against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas stands at 26th in EPA per dropback allowed, with their opponents taking advantage of that with elevated pass rates that now compete with what the Ravens have experienced. Consequently, Vegas has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to rival […]
Quarterback
Start: Baker Mayfield, Bucs
Mayfield faces an excellent matchup against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas stands at 26th in EPA per dropback allowed, with their opponents taking advantage of that with elevated pass rates that now compete with what the Ravens have experienced. Consequently, Vegas has surrendered the seventh-most fantasy points to rival quarterbacks. Currently, Mayfield ranks as the QB6 in points per game and may ascend further in the rankings after Week 14.
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Start: Will Levis, Titans
Levis has shown significant improvement (from a fantasy perspective) since returning from a lengthy injury absence that did not seem to correlate with his earlier poor performances. Since his comeback, Levis has been averaging 240 passing yards and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He hasn’t lost his aggressive nature during his time off, ranking eighth in deep throw rate and second in PFF passing grade on deep attempts over the last month. Jacksonville is allowing the 31st highest YPA on deep throws and has given up the fourth-most explosive passing plays this season.
Sit: Kirk Cousins, Falcons
Cousins faces a tough outing against the Vikings’ blitz-heavy defense this week. Minnesota’s aggressive defensive strategy allows them to consistently pressure the quarterback quickly. They are fifth in both quick pressure rate and unlocked pressure rate. Cousins has the third-highest rate of turnover-worthy plays when pressured in under 2.5 seconds and ranks 18th in PFF passing grade under such pressure. He has struggled against all types of pressure this season, ranking below the top 20 in PFF passing grade, compounded by a top-five turnover-worthy play rate.
Sportsbooks also perceive this as problematic for Cousins. The Falcons initially opened as slight favorites on the road but are now 5.5-point underdogs. Their implied team total of 20 points is lower than teams led by Cooper Rush and Will Levis.
Sit: Justin Herbert, Chargers
This is a disappointing sentiment, but Herbert’s fantasy outlook isn’t particularly favorable this week. Las Vegas has the Chargers, who are road underdogs, with a team total of 19.75. Following their bye, the Chargers had a +3% pass rate over expected over four games but haven’t been able to replicate that in the last four games, posting a -1% PROE during that period, primarily attributed to a run-heavy strategy against Tennessee.
Opponents of the Chiefs have faced a negative PROE this season, with the game itself projecting a remarkably low total of 43 points. All indications suggest a challenging scoring environment for Herbert on Sunday.
Running Back
Start: Isaac Guerenedo, 49ers
The 49ers averaged 18.3 carries and 1.4 receptions per game for Jordan Mason during his seven starts before Christian McCaffrey’s return. With both CMC and Mason now out for the year, that workload is solely in Guerendo’s hands. Recently waived and subsequently claimed Israel Abanikanda and practice squad call-up Patrick Taylor are the only other running backs on the roster. Guerendo, a fourth-round rookie, put up eye-popping numbers at the combine.
His team is favored by 3.5 points at home this week. With six teams on bye, Guerendo is on the verge of an RB1 ranking for his first game as a starter.
Start: Braelon Allen, Jets
Breece Hall is currently doubtful, a designation he seems unlikely to play through. This situation leaves Allen and fellow rookie Isaiah Davis to handle the Jets’ backfield duties. Davis had his first carry in over a month last week and caught all three of his targets. He’s expected to contribute on passing downs, while Allen will likely receive the majority of carries. The Dolphins have faced a lower-than-average pass rate over expected this year and are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to running backs. Allen, graded as a top-15 runner by PFF, should be well-positioned to capitalize on this matchup on Sunday.
Sit: Gus Edwards, Chargers
Edwards struggled in his initial start with J.K. Dobbins sidelined. He managed six carries for 32 yards and caught one pass. Edwards only accounted for 35 percent of the Chargers’ carries and ran a route on 32 percent of Herbert’s dropbacks. He ranks at or near the bottom of the league in every rushing efficiency measure and is now losing carries to rookie Kimani Vidal, who had four carries in Week 13. Playing on the road against the Chiefs is not the ideal scenario for him, even as an RB3.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
The Panthers have put up a commendable fight as underdogs over the last month, but their luck appears to be running out. They are 13-point underdogs to the Eagles, and their implied team total of 16.5 points is the lowest of the week. Hubbard has started to lose a significant portion of the backfield workload to Jonathon Brooks in Week 13, with Brooks handling 29 percent of Carolina’s carries. Hubbard’s carry share has dropped to 57 percent, which is his lowest since Week 3.
Brooks earned additional opportunities due to his performance. While Hubbard remains the clear top back for Carolina, his dwindling workload may be hard to manage against a tough matchup versus Philadelphia.
Wide Receiver
Start: Elijah Moore, Browns
Jerry Jeudy’s impressive 235-yard performance overshadowed Moore’s breakout in Week 13, yet fantasy players should feel confident including both in their lineups. Moore recorded 111 yards on eight receptions. Both wide receivers have garnered a 21 percent target share since the trade of Amari Cooper. Despite Moore’s lower average depth of target role, he still boasts 97 air yards per game. He has finished as a WR2 or better in four of his last six contests. Jameis Winston is here to launch deep throws and have a great time; he’s unfortunately out of bubblegum.
Start: Khalil Shakir, Bills
Shakir has been the standout receiver for the Bills this season and is finally being recognized as such. He ranks in the top 10 for yards per route run, targets per route run, and yards after the catch per reception. Over his last six games, Shakir has achieved a 27 percent target share. He has secured himself as a WR2 or better four times during that span. Even with the potential return of Keon Coleman this week, Shakir’s performance has been too impressive to overshadow.
Sit: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Hill hovers around the WR2 range this week, yet he’s far from the must-start fantasy asset he was in the previous year. Since Tua Tagovailoa returned to action, Hill has commanded just 19 percent of the Dolphins’ targets and has been targeted on only 20 percent of his routes. Hill is currently ranked WR27 in expected fantasy points per game and WR23 in actual points per game following Tua’s return. Although he isn’t a firm fade, fantasy players who succeeded with Jerry Jeudy, Jakobi Meyers, and other high-end WR2s could afford to sit Hill this week.
Sit: DeAndre Hopkins, Chiefs
Hopkins reached a peak target share of 21 percent during his stint in Kansas City. This notable game back in Week 9 marks his singular contest with a target share in the 20s since his trade. He has only run routes on 57 percent of the team’s passing plays in his last four outings. Given this low-total AFC West matchup with the Chargers, it might be prudent for him to remain on the bench for yet another week.
Tight End
Start: Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
It may not be revolutionary to suggest starting Smith, but the number of tight ends projected to score more points than him is remarkably limited. Since Tua’s return, Smith ranks as the TE5 in both expected and actual points per game. He has a target share of 22 percent and averages 16 points per game over the past six games. His involvement is also increasing, with his target share climbing to 24 percent and averaging 24.4 points per game over the last three weeks.
Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints
If you need a deep dive at tight end, Johnson is the pick. Taysom Hill exited Week 13 due to a season-ending knee injury. Johnson responded with a 19 percent target share on 79 percent of the routes run, both of which were season bests. With the Saints depleted at receiver, Johnson—a former receiver himself—emerges as their prime option in the passing game, aside from Alvin Kamara. Expect him to receive plenty of targets as the season concludes.
Sit: Cade Otton, Bucs
Otton’s performance has declined significantly with a healthy Mike Evans. During his brief period as the Bucs’ leading pass-catching option, Otton capitalized on 27 percent of the team’s targets and 26 percent of air yards. These figures have sharply dropped to 16 and eight in two games with Evans back on the field. While Otton remains within the TE2 ranks for Week 14, he no longer has the TE1 potential as the fantasy playoffs approach.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid, Bills
With six teams on bye and the tight end position presenting complications, identifying straightforward fades can be challenging. Kincaid is uncertain for Week 14. If he does play, I recommend giving him at least a week of rest on the bench. Kincaid currently ranks 11th in target share among tight ends, but he is on a team that sits outside the top 20 in total passing volume, making his raw target numbers less remarkable. He is currently TE20 by points per game.
