How college football’s new landscape has changed betting on bowl games

Betting on bowl games is a unique animal and has always required different tools than those used for the regular season. However, college football’s landscape has changed, and its recent evolution is forcing bettors and bookmakers to adjust on the fly and develop new skills.

The current state of the sport, which includes the transfer portal, NIL and a nonstop coaching carousel, significantly impacts programs in December, disrupting the football calendar and complicating the entire bowl season. In turn, that domino effect jolts the betting market.

“Bowl game handicapping is certainly a different exercise today than it was 10 years ago,” professional bettor Paul Stone told The Athletic. “Previously, my bowl process primarily focused on motivational edges, current form, strength of schedule and some of the typical metrics. Today, it’s not so much about getting the best number but rather the best information.”

Nowadays, each bowl season seems to produce unprecedented situations. With Lane Kiffin headed to LSU, Ole Miss enters the playoff without its head coach, but Kiffin’s assistants are allowed to coach the Rebels until their postseason ends.

Elsewhere, Michigan fired Sherrone Moore this week for what the school labeled “an inappropriate relationship with a staff member.” The Wolverines named associate head coach Biff Poggi as the interim coach for the Citrus Bowl on New Year’s Eve against Texas.

As the Moore news surfaced on Wednesday, the Longhorns went from a 5.5-point favorite to a 6.5-point favorite. All sportsbooks basically reacted in unison, given that the news seemingly came out of nowhere. However, kernels of information that fly under the radar are where experienced bettors find opportunity.

“Chances are someone has news before you,” Thomas Gable, Borgata director of race and sports, said in explaining why respected bettors can cause drastic shifts in the odds. “With the opt-outs and coaching changes, it’s definitely more challenging now to book these bowl games, and the line movement is much greater than before.”

The transfer timeline has a clear window. However, teams often withhold certain information regarding injuries or opt-outs. If their opponent game-plans for specific players who end up skipping the bowl game, the competitive advantage could shift.

“You read as much as possible to try to get ahead of information leaks and line moves to get the best of the number — and this is when you are betting the numbers and not necessarily the teams,” veteran Las Vegas handicapper and VSiN betting analyst Matt Youmans said. “It’s almost uncharted territory, so proceed with caution.”

Kiffin’s departure from a playoff team is not a complete outlier. Fellow CFP participants Tulane (Jon Sumrall) and James Madison (Bob Chesney) have seen their coaches agree to take head coaching positions at Florida and UCLA, respectively. However, unlike Kiffin, they will remain with their teams until they are eliminated.

“Kiffin is more than just the offense. He is the identity of their program, and I think that will ultimately become an issue,” professional bettor Jay Romano said, adding that he expects the Rebels to win only their playoff opener against Tulane on Dec. 20. “I don’t downgrade [either of Tulane or James Madison] much for the coaching change. History has shown that the Group of Five teams are more built to sustain things, and their morale should be intact.”

Aside from those unique coaching situations, bettors haven’t had to wonder about player motivation or opt-outs in the playoffs (not yet, at least). However, it’s a much more uncertain situation with the non-playoff bowl games, which can create reluctance.

“Obviously, a sportsbook would want all the recreational money you can get on a bowl game, but that just isn’t the reality anymore for some of these games,” Gable said.

While those giant unknowns may understandably intimidate casual bettors, experienced ones see fiscal opportunity in new spaces. They understand the variables facing them also face their competitors, which can occasionally cause double-digit line movements.

One instance of this that comes to mind was a notable line move last year at the Holiday Bowl. Syracuse opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but that spread moved as high as 20 points when news of Washington State departures surfaced. Quarterback John Mateer was among 20+ players who entered the transfer portal. Plus, the Cougars were also without head coach Jake Dickert, both coordinators and the quarterbacks and running backs coaches.

Syracuse won by 17 points (52-35), so bettors who timed their wagers properly were rewarded.

“Chaos and unpredictability are usually better for the bookmakers, but that can go both ways. I always believe the best handicappers find ways to pick more winners no matter the circumstances,” Youmans said.

Said Stone: “While the hours have become even longer, I believe the bowls present a solid betting opportunity for the hard-working handicapper. You can still beat the bowls, if you’re willing to put in the time and effort.”