How NIL has changed college basketball: Numbers deep dive reveals surprising trends, recipe for success

The NIL era, starting July 1, 2021, has drastically altered college basketball’s competitive landscape. Iconic programs like Gonzaga and Kansas continue to perform well, but others have struggled, revealing a widening disparity in success rates. Of note, 11 teams have achieved a winning percentage of 75% or more in just four seasons — a significant increase from previous decades. Meanwhile, mid-major programs are experiencing an increase in prominence, further complicating the traditional hierarchy of college basketball.

By the Numbers

• From 2000-21, only 4 teams recorded a winning percentage of 75% or higher; since NIL, 11 teams have achieved this in just 4 seasons.
• Houston leads with an 86.8% winning percentage since NIL, followed by Duke at 80.7% and Gonzaga at 80.6%.

Yes, But

While many teams have surged in the NIL era, some programs have seen their success decline dramatically, underscoring the uneven distribution of resources and talent across conferences.

State of Play

• Non-major conference teams like Drake and Saint Mary’s are experiencing unprecedented success, with winning percentages above 75%.
• Some traditional powerhouses, like North Carolina and Kansas, have also declined in performance relative to the new era.

What’s Next

Expect ongoing shifts in college basketball dynamics as more mid-major programs leverage NIL opportunities to compete with traditional powerhouses, potentially reshaping the landscape in the coming years.

Bottom Line

The NIL era has expanded opportunities for success but has also intensified competition, suggesting that ongoing adjustments will be essential for programs to navigate this new reality effectively.