Genius Sports (GENI, Financial) and the National Football League have reached a new agreement to extend and expand their strategic technology collaboration. This agreement aims to enhance NFL fan experiences by continuing the global distribution of official data and video content. Genius Sports will maintain its role as the exclusive distributor of real-time play-by-play statistics, Next Gen Stats, and the league’s sports betting data to media outlets and sports betting operators worldwide.
In addition to these data distribution responsibilities, Genius Sports remains the exclusive provider of live NFL games for international sportsbooks with low latency streaming. The company will also exclusively manage in-game advertising inventory. Moreover, Genius Sports continues as an official reseller of the NFL’s international and U.S. sports betting advertising inventory through its FANHub platform. The two organizations will further engage in new activation initiatives within the FANHub to drive innovation across NFL platforms, reinforcing their strategic partnership.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 15 analysts, the average target price for Genius Sports Ltd (GENI, Financial) is $12.33 with a high estimate of $15.00 and a low estimate of $11.00. The average target implies an
upside of 31.49%
from the current price of $9.38. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 14 brokerage firms, Genius Sports Ltd’s (GENI, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.8, indicating “Outperform” status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Genius Sports Ltd (GENI, Financial) in one year is $8.82, suggesting a
downside
of 5.97% from the current price of $9.38. GF Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. More detailed data can be found on the Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) Summary page.
GENI Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 06, 2025
- Group Revenue: Increased by 20% year on year to $144 million.
- Group Adjusted EBITDA: Increased to $20 million, nearly tripling from $7 million last year.
- EBITDA Margin: Expanded by 800 basis points year on year to 14%.
- Betting Revenue: Increased by 44% year on year to $107 million.
- Revenue from Revenue Share Agreements: Increased by 65% year on year.
- Betting Revenue from Contractual Minimums: Increased by 36% year on year.
- Geographical Revenue Growth: Europe 16%, Americas 23%, Rest of the World 39%.
- Sports Tech Revenue: Increased by 12% year on year.
- Media Revenue: Decreased to $26 million from $35 million last year.
- Gross Margin: Increased from 11% last year to 24% this year.
- Group Adjusted EBITDA Margin: Increased from 6% last year to 14% this year.
- Cash Flow: Expected to be positive and higher than 2024’s net inflow.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Genius Sports Ltd (GENI, Financial) reported a 20% year-on-year increase in group revenue for Q1 2025, reaching $144 million.
- The company’s group adjusted EBITDA nearly tripled to $20 million, demonstrating strong operating leverage.
- Genius Sports Ltd (GENI) expanded its NCAA partnership through 2032, securing exclusive data rights for March Madness and all postseason tournaments at no out-of-pocket cost.
- The launch of new products, such as the semi-automated offside technology (SAOT) for the English Premier League, is driving growth in sports tech revenue.
- The company announced a share repurchase program of up to $100 million, reflecting confidence in its financial outlook and commitment to shareholder returns.
Negative Points
- Media revenue declined to $26 million from $35 million in the previous year, attributed to tough year-on-year comparisons.
- The company faces challenges in the media segment due to less predictable revenue and timing issues around major events like March Madness.
- There is uncertainty regarding the impact of macroeconomic conditions on client interest and potential delays in sales cycles.
- The NCAA deal’s financial benefits are expected to be realized more significantly in 2026 rather than 2025, limiting immediate revenue impact.
- Cash outflows are expected in the first half of the year, following historical patterns, which may affect short-term liquidity.