Against Nebraska, Illinois shot a 10/42 from deep. Similar issues against Maryland and USC.Illinois is 6-6 in quad 1 games.Illinois would then likely face the Kansas Jayhawks, a four-seed and coached by former Illini head man Bill Self. The Jayhawks have struggled a lot this season, despite being the pre-season No. 1 team in America. […]
Against Nebraska, Illinois shot a 10/42 from deep. Similar issues against Maryland and USC.Illinois is 6-6 in quad 1 games.Illinois would then likely face the Kansas Jayhawks, a four-seed and coached by former Illini head man Bill Self. The Jayhawks have struggled a lot this season, despite being the pre-season No. 1 team in America. The offense is poor, but the defense is still rated very highly.Pre-game, Underwood harped on better shot selection, and his team listened. Specifically, Will Riley stood out, going 7-9 from the field and a team-high 24 points.And reminder: the AP Poll has little to no impact on NCAA Tournament seeding.Illinois won a must-win game against Ohio State on Sunday, reviving a team who struggled with injuries and inconsistent play in January.However, against the Buckeyes, the Illini shot its fewest deep shots and focused on layups and dunks.And Ivisic, who is a three point threat, can sit at the arc and help space the floor. It creates “driving to the hoop” chances for guards, as big men have to follow Ivisic at the three point line. However, the Illini were without center Tomislav Ivisic, who missed three games due to mono.Here’s an update to Illinois’ AP Poll ranking, metric standings and NCAA Tournament projection.According to Ken Pom’s offensive and defensive statistics, Illinois has the 22nd offense and 11th best defense out of 365 teams.Purdue is the only conference rival who’s higher than Illinois.In 2018, Michigan State was No. 3 in the AP Poll, but were a three-seed. Usually, you’d think they’d be a one-seed.But don’t lose to underdogs too often! However, it has bit Illinois’ rear end.Some big games coming up for Illinois are Duke, Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and then the Big Ten Tournament.They’d face mid-major power McNeese State, who’s a projected 12 seed and coached by former LSU head man Will Wade. McNeese State did make the tourney last season, but were smoked by Gonzaga in the first round.While the “double-double” was nice, Ivisic produce results that don’t pop out on the box score.Since 2021, Illinois has made the tournament each season.If Illinois wants a cushy path and earn a three-seed, they need to go on a big winning streak and defeat inferior teams.He returned to action on Sunday, recording 12 points and 10 rebounds in a win over the Buckeyes.The Nebraska loss was a stinger, and pollster made Illini “pay the price.” Despite being a 4.5 point favorite, Illinois’ poor three point shooting, turnovers and thin front court depth allowed the ‘Huskers to pull off the upset.The Illini improved to 15-7 and 7-5 in Big Ten play. While Illinois’ path to a Big Ten regular season title is difficult (they’re four losses behind 1st place Michigan State), they may have bigger fish to fry.METRICS: Ken PomNCAA Tournament ProjectionNET Rankings like to categorize wins into four “Quads.”As long as Illinois avoids a bad Quad 3 or 4 loss, they should stay high in this ranking. Which is good because the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will be using this metric when deciding seeding.He’s also an excellent passer and recorded multiple assists.If 100%, Illinois is considered by national analysts to have “the highest ceiling” among Big Ten teams.The Illini have strong wins over Wisconsin, Missouri, Ohio State, Arkansas, Oregon and Indiana, which helps its rating.Bottom line: there’s plenty of chances of securing signature victories.Focusing on attacking the rim, Riley broke out of a mid-season slump headlined by poor three point shooting.METRICS: NET RankingIn 2023, they were a nine-seed.Underwood is happy he has a full, healthy roster for the first time since early January. After the Washington victory, Illinois has either missed Kasparas Jakucionis or Ivisic to illness or injury.Regarding defense, Illinois’ development has been a pleasant surprise. Pre-season, Underwood said the defense “stunk and couldn’t guard a 7th grade middle school team.”The offense has dropped since the pre-season due to turnovers and being the Big Ten’s second worst three point shooting team. Which is surprising because Illinois’ offense was structured around shooting a high volume of them.AP POLLIvisic helped strengthen Illinois’ front court and rim protection, as Brad Underwood didn’t have to play undersized “bigs” such as Ben Humrichous, Carey Booth and Jake Davis.Illinois is 12th in this ranking – and again, the only Big Ten team rated higher is Purdue.After a split week (losing at Nebraska, but beating Ohio State), Illinois fell to 23rd from 18th in the latest AP Poll.Four Big Ten teams rank higher: Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland and Wisconsin.Illinois finished 26-38 from inside the arc, capping off its best offensive performance since defeating Indiana last month.Illinois’ rebounding is one of America’s best, and it will get only better if Ivisic is on the court and protect the rim.In 2021, they were a one-seed.Losses to USC, Maryland by 21 points, Northwestern and Nebraska is why Illinois is a projected 5-seed right now and not much higher.Also in 2014, Louisville finished the regular season No. 5 in the AP Poll, but were a four-seed in the NCAA Tournament.Wins and losses to good teams are “Quad 1.” Wins and losses to really, really bad teams is “Quad 4.”The Illini have only one loss outside of quad 1, which was to the USC Trojans at home.In 2024, they were a three-seed. That allowed them to play No. 14 Morehead State and then No. 11 Duquesne. (SHOCKER: they won both games and made the Sweet 16.)After beating Ohio State, Illinois jumped to 13th from 18th in Ken Pom.Illinois is still beloved by advanced metrics, which is used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in this region would be Alabama and Purdue, respectively.Illinois is projected to be a 5th seed, according to Jerry Palm of CBS’ Bracketology.Now, let’s see if Illinois sticks to a more diverse offensive attack and going inside more. Underwood and Riley said the Ohio State defense didn’t “allow three point attempts” hence why they went inside.In 2022, they dropped to a four-seed after a late-season slide.
