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Insights from the College Football Playoff

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Insights from the College Football Playoff

By Ralph D. Russo, Matt Baker, Justin Williams, Joe Rexrode, and Sam Khan Jr. The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff lineup will be disclosed on Sunday, yet much remained unclear leading up to Saturday’s Power 4 conference championship matchups after Boise State secured the first automatic bid on Friday. Our analysts are prepared to provide […]

By Ralph D. Russo, Matt Baker, Justin Williams, Joe Rexrode, and Sam Khan Jr.

The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff lineup will be disclosed on Sunday, yet much remained unclear leading up to Saturday’s Power 4 conference championship matchups after Boise State secured the first automatic bid on Friday. Our analysts are prepared to provide all the insights you require regarding the Playoff race following the crowning of the Power 4 conference champions — Oregon, Georgia, Arizona State, and Clemson — spanning topics from first-round surpluses to home games to the contention surrounding bubble teams.

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Key articles:

ACC: Clemson 34, SMU 31

No. 8 SMU (11-2) overcame a 31-14 deficit in the third quarter with a strong fourth-quarter push, leveling the game with just 16 seconds remaining. However, Nolan Hauser clinched the ACC championship for No. 17 Clemson (10-3) with a sensational 56-yard field goal as time ran out—propelling the Tigers into the Playoff while pushing SMU into a debate for a potential spot against Alabama.

SMU or Alabama: Who will claim the final slot?

The Mustangs’ defeat to Clemson raises questions about their inclusion in the field, despite having a ranking three positions above Alabama after 12 games.

“They’ve told us we’re worthy,” remarked SMU coach Rhett Lashlee on Friday.

Will the selection committee take the daring, controversial decision to exclude a team that fell in its conference championship game on a last-second kick in favor of a three-loss contender that observed championship matches from home? Austin Mock’s projections model for The Athletic predicts a 79 percent chance for SMU compared to Alabama’s 21 percent.

It’s unwise to take anything for granted after the committee’s ruling last season concerning Florida State. Detractors will highlight Alabama’s stronger schedule and its 3-1 performance against teams currently in the Top 25, while SMU stands at 0-2. However, SMU accomplished numerous feats that Alabama did not, such as remaining undefeated in conference matchups. They faced 11 Power 4 rivals compared to Alabama’s nine, and all SMU’s losses were close contests against teams with 10 wins, rather than to 6-6 teams as experienced by Alabama, which lost to Vanderbilt and succumbed to Oklahoma.

“It would be a travesty if we’re not selected,” Lashlee stated. “That would be unjust on multiple fronts, not just for our squad, but for the integrity of college football. … We just engaged in what felt like a playoff game and performed admirably. For the last three quarters, everyone observed what they’ve witnessed all season.”

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Clemson’s coach Dabo Swinney emphasized during the postgame interview with ESPN: “That’s a Playoff-caliber team. SMU, they better find their way into the playoffs.” While that may be regarded as friendly lobbying within the ACC, it doesn’t negate the correctness of Swinney’s sentiment. Despite a slow start, SMU displayed championship resilience by recovering from a 17-point deficit to tie the game in the closing moments.

All of this, along with the overall performance of the Mustangs, should merit them a spot in the 12-team playoff lineup. — Khan

It’s Boise State versus Clemson versus Arizona State for two byes

Clemson’s victory in the ACC championship essentially secured a Playoff spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions. The top four of these five will receive first-round byes.

Big Ten titleholder Oregon will earn the No. 1 seed. SEC champion Georgia will be positioned at No. 2. The ranking of the subsequent three conference champions will stir an intriguing discussion among the selection committee late Saturday, extending into Sunday morning.

No. 10 Boise State (12-1) appears almost guaranteed a bye, considering Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos have maintained this strong position for several weeks.

No. 15 Arizona State (11-2) captured the Big 12 in convincing fashion against No. 16 Iowa State and enters the Playoff with a six-game winning streak.

Conversely, No. 17 Clemson (10-3) required an upset by Syracuse over Miami last week to secure its place in the ACC championship for the 10th time (Swinney boasts a 9-1 record in this game). Although the Tigers have the least favorable record amongst the trio, two of their defeats were against Georgia in their season opener and South Carolina by a mere three points in their regular season finale. None of the other contenders, Boise State or Arizona State, faced a superior opponent in their conference title matches compared to Clemson’s triumph over No. 8 SMU. — Russo

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What a Playoff bid signifies for this Clemson squad

The Tigers demonstrated that in the expanded format, one does not need to resemble a stereotypical Playoff team to qualify.

Clemson will make history as the first three-loss team to enter the Playoff, in spite of a lopsided defeat against Georgia in Week 1, a loss by double digits to Louisville in early November, and the recent setback against South Carolina. As only one of these losses transpired within conference play, the Tigers qualified for the ACC championship, where they capitalized on their opportunity by jumping to an early lead and managing to maintain it.

This year’s Tigers may not possess the elite qualities seen during their championship runs led by Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence. Quarterback Cade Klubnik is competent but a tier below them, and his supporting cast has its imperfections. Nevertheless, the 12-team format allows some leeway. Clemson took advantage of these chances on Saturday and is now poised for their seventh Playoff appearance. Swinney’s ninth ACC title came as a pleasant surprise this season. Any additional success, such as a Playoff victory or two, would be a bonus. — Baker

Big Ten: Oregon 45, Penn State 37

The No. 1 Ducks (13-0) have maintained their unbeaten streak in a high-scoring match against the No. 3 Nittany Lions (11-2). Penn State amassed 518 yards, surpassing Oregon’s 466, but errors proved detrimental, notably an interception by Drew Allar on the Lions’ last drive. Oregon’s receiver Tez Johnson excelled with 11 receptions totaling 181 yards.

Ducks poised for the Rose Bowl

As the Big Ten champion, it’s fitting that Oregon is headed to the Rose Bowl.

Being the only unbeaten team in the nation, the Ducks secured the No. 1 seed in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, earning a first-round bye along with a quarterfinal matchup at the Rose Bowl on January 1 against the victor of the 8 vs. 9 clash.

The Ducks have previously participated in six Rose Bowls as the Pac-12 champion, including a semifinal against Florida State in 2014 on their path to a national championship game, where they were defeated by Ohio State. Now, they will represent the Big Ten in their inaugural season against a future opponent still to be decided. It won’t be from the Pac-12, but could it be Ohio State or Penn State again from the Big Ten? — Russo

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Has Oregon been an overlooked No. 1?

Oregon stands out as one of the most esteemed and fashion-forward programs in college football, with a notable quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. So why do this year’s Ducks feel like the most understated No. 1 team in a long time? In spite of their talent and accomplishments, Oregon hasn’t garnered the same level of focus or discourse as other leading teams this season. This might be attributed to their schedule: The significant triumph against Ohio State occurred early, while the victory over Boise State was back on September 7, and not many other prominent matchups followed. It’s possible that time-zone bias also plays a role.

Regardless of the cause, Oregon illustrated their merit for the top seed with the win against Penn State. The Ducks produced 45 points and 466 total yards, which included 283 passing yards and four touchdowns by Gabriel. Their offense can dominate through both the ground and aerial attacks. Although their top-15 defense didn’t consistently perform up to par on Saturday, allowing 518 yards, they secured two crucial interceptions—one leading directly to a touchdown and another sealing the victory.

Now the spotlight is on them, and Oregon appears ready to be a formidable contestant in the 12-team Playoff as they aim to become the first first-time national champion since Florida in 1996. — Williams

A potential home game in Happy Valley?

Initially, it appeared bleak for the Nittany Lions, who fell behind 14-3 and 28-10 during the first half. Yet they exhibited considerable resilience—primarily on offense—and completed the game respectably, continuing their struggles in big matchups. Penn State now holds a 3-19 record against AP top-10 teams and 1-14 against top-five opponents under James Franklin.

A decline from No. 3 in the rankings is likely, rendering them unlikely to host a first-round game against the No. 12 seed. However, to lose that privilege would likely have necessitated a humiliating performance, if anything. Teams like Texas, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Tennessee aren’t all passing Franklin’s squad.

The Volunteers, Indiana, Clemson, SMU, and Alabama are all possible opponents who could enjoy a December “White Out” experience in Beaver Stadium. — Rexrode

SEC: Georgia 22, Texas 19 (OT)

A week after withstanding Georgia Tech in a grueling eight-overtime match, No. 5 Georgia (11-2) required only one overtime to secure the SEC title against No. 2 Texas (11-2). The Bulldogs were outgained 389 yards to 277 and had to rely on backup quarterback Gunner Stockton in the second half due to an injury to Carson Beck, but Trevor Etienne’s rushing touchdown pushed them to victory, marking their second SEC championship in three years.

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Georgia is a solid candidate for the No. 2 seed

Georgia’s triumph in the SEC championship eliminates uncertainty regarding its Playoff eligibility despite the injury to their starting quarterback.

Discussions of potential outrage were already surfacing online by the time Beck was sidelined for most of the second half due to what seemed to be an elbow injury to his throwing arm. Indeed, the committee excluded Florida State last year following the injury of Jordan Travis, but it’s noteworthy that the Seminoles would have been positioned high enough to qualify for a 12-team playoff.

Even though Beck returned briefly for a handoff during the game’s final moments after Stockton’s helmet came off, the uncertainty surrounding his health clouds Georgia’s Playoff trajectory. However, with a first-round bye now virtually certain, they’re well-placed for the No. 2 seed. They’ll commence their pursuit of a third national championship in four years at the Sugar Bowl on January 1. — Russo

How far will Texas descend?

Texas is likely to fall a few positions from their No. 2 ranking but should remain sufficiently high to host a first-round game.

Indiana, Alabama, and Tennessee are prominent candidates for a visit to Austin. However, will the committee reassess Texas strictly in light of losing their advantage to a backup quarterback in the latter half of Saturday’s game? Recall that Miami fell six spots last week following a defeat to Syracuse. Texas bookended their season without a victory over any ranked opponent and suffered two losses to the sole team they faced this season. It would be prudent to predict a slide to No. 5 in the rankings, placing them as the No. 7 seed and possibly facing Indiana in a 7-10 matchup. — Rexrode

What does this victory indicate for Georgia’s national title ambitions?

A gritty and resilient win for Georgia. Beyond quarterback theatrics, the Bulldogs prevailed with a committed rushing attack (37 attempts, 141 yards) and a tenacious defense reminiscent of their October victory over the Longhorns in Austin, registering six sacks and three turnovers on Saturday.

Significant questions still loom for the Bulldogs within the 12-team playoff framework. How severe is Beck’s injury? And regardless of his status, what insights can we glean about Georgia as a national championship contender after Saturday’s performance? When the defense performs at full capacity, it radiates championship potential. Conversely, Beck struggled before his exit, and Georgia’s final statistics showed 20 completions on 30 attempts for a mere 136 passing yards and no touchdowns.

Winning the SEC was a hard-fought achievement, yet Coach Kirby Smart and the Bulldogs must refine their passing strategy for any realistic shot at lifting another national championship trophy. — Williams

go-deeperGO DEEPERA backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment

What another loss to Georgia reveals about Texas

The Longhorns hold a straightforward winning strategy: If they can establish the run, victory is attainable. If not, catastrophe looms. Their two losses correlate directly with their inability to exceed 100 rushing yards, both of which were against Georgia. Texas managed just 29 rushing yards in the October 19 defeat and 31 on Saturday. Their other victories were hard-fought, such as a 27-24 win at Vanderbilt and a 20-10 success at Arkansas, with their lowest rush outputs being 104 yards and 139, respectively.

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Texas possesses a championship-caliber defense coupled with a boom-or-bust passing game led by quarterback Quinn Ewers, which often produces pivotal plays. Yet, Georgia illustrated the method to stifle the Longhorns: suppress the running attack. — Khan

Why Georgia differs from FSU last year

Once again, the Playoff selection committee must weigh the health status of a starting quarterback as they finalize the teams. But the circumstances of Beck’s injury diverge from those surrounding Florida State’s Jordan Travis last year. — Baker

go-deeperGO DEEPERHow will the Playoff handle Georgia QB Carson Beck’s injury? Why it’s not like FSU

Big 12: Arizona State 45, Iowa State 19

The  No. 15 Sun Devils (11-2) ran over the No. 16 Cyclones (10-3) to win the Big 12 championship and secure a playoff position. The score was equal at 10 early in the second quarter when Arizona State went on a dominant run, scoring 35 unanswered points that turned it into a one-sided affair.

Arizona State’s astonishing rise

A remarkable transformation for second-year coach Kenny Dillingham and the Sun Devils, who moved from a 3-9 record in 2023 and were picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason ranking to clinching a conference title in their inaugural season in the league. This marks Arizona State’s first conference championship since they shared the Pac-10 title in 2007.

Regardless of their playoff seeding, this season has been spectacular for a program that rebounded from the dismal, NCAA-infraction-riddled tenure of former head coach Herm Edwards. The Sun Devils achieved their fifth 11-win season in their history on Saturday, the first since 1996, with an opportunity to match or exceed the 12-win record set back in 1975. — Williams

go-deeperGO DEEPERUnthinkable? A storybook season keeps getting better for surprise Big 12 champ Arizona State

Can the Sun Devils secure a first-round bye?

The Sun Devils headed into the weekend rated No. 15 by the selection committee. The Big 12 has been pursuing No. 10 Boise State for a period now, much to the frustration of commissioner Brett Yormark.

“From my perspective, there should be no comparison between us and a Group of 5 champion,” he claimed before Saturday’s game.

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With the Broncos clinching the Mountain West title on Friday, it would require a significant shift in opinion from the committee to place ASU ahead of Boise State. However, the narrative could shift with No. 17 Clemson’s victory over No. 8 SMU in the ACC championship. This could open doors for both Arizona State and Boise State to secure top-four seeds.

Another consideration: If Arizona State fails to land a first-round bye, could the committee recognize their six-game winning streak with a seed higher than the 12th position, surpassing Alabama, which currently occupies the last at-large slot? — Russo

Will Cam Skattebo be a Heisman candidate?

Travis Hunter and Ashton Jeanty lead the pack in the Heisman Trophy race, but Skattebo has forced his way into the conversation.

Skattebo showcased his athleticism against Iowa State; four Cyclone defenders bounced off him during a remarkable 47-yard run in the second quarter before he was finally brought down by a fifth. Four plays later, he punched it in from three yards out, putting ASU up 17-10, and they never looked back.

Skattebo found the end zone twice more and concluded the game with 208 scrimmage yards, placing him second nationally in FBS with 2,074 for the season, only behind Jeanty (2,613). This marks the eighth game where Skattebo surpassed 150 scrimmage yards this season.

Outside of the two leading candidates, it’s challenging to identify anyone making a stronger case for New York City. — Khan

go-deeperGO DEEPERCam Skattebo strikes a pose and makes a statement: He belongs on the sport’s biggest stage

Is Arizona State a dark horse for a Playoff run?

Even more than the year’s unexpected story Indiana, Arizona State seems intriguing looking ahead to the Playoffs due to their offensive prowess. However, this offense might struggle in colder conditions on the road during the first round — perhaps at Penn State or Notre Dame. Should ASU secure a bye to a quarterfinal, the fast track will likely aid them.

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Regardless, Skattebo is an elite weapon for the Playoffs, quarterback Sam Leavitt is operating at an exceptional level and poses a rushing threat, and ASU performed admirably against Iowa State without top receiver Jordyn Tyson, who’s injured for the season. — Rexrode

Iowa State’s postseason aspirations are dashed. What’s next?

The loss concluded the Cyclones’ hopes for a playoff berth as well as their goal of clinching a conference title for the first time since 1912. The presence of disappointment surrounding Iowa State highlights the success of Matt Campbell, who is already the winningest coach in program history. Campbell has led a traditionally underperforming program to two conference title matches — Iowa State lost to Oklahoma in 2020 — and a program-record 10 victories this season. If the Cyclones secure triumph in their bowl game (the Pop-Tarts Bowl is a potential destination), they could achieve a ranking for only the fourth time ever. — Baker

go-deeperGO DEEPERCollege Football Playoff 2024 projections: SMU favored over Alabama for final spot

(Photo: Grant Halverson / Getty Images)

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