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Is Oregon’s NIL and Recruiting Ahead of Everyone?

Oregon is getting beat on the recruiting trail pretty badly this off-season. It’s been ages since the program has had a major win. It appears that Dan Lanning and Oregon’s main NIL cooperative, Division Street, may be changing their strategy, with a greater focus on spending NIL dollars in the transfer portal rather than on […]

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Oregon is getting beat on the recruiting trail pretty badly this off-season. It’s been ages since the program has had a major win. It appears that Dan Lanning and Oregon’s main NIL cooperative, Division Street, may be changing their strategy, with a greater focus on spending NIL dollars in the transfer portal rather than on high school recruits. Mr. FishDuck took a break from figuring out his betting payouts on the expected value calculator–to express his concern as many Duck fans have.

At this point in the year, this can feel like a good explanation for Oregon’s recruiting woes, but the reality is that Oregon doesn’t like to get in bidding wars concerning NIL allocation until December, right before the early signing period. For the most part this strategy has worked for the Ducks and this likely explains what is happening right now regarding Oregon’s recruiting woes.

The Ducks and Division Street  refuse to get into a bidding war this early in the recruiting cycle and are continuing to recruit many of these committed athletes. However, if some of these NIL deals hold to the end of the cycle, the Ducks may be left with a small prep recruiting class, and thus a change in strategy is prudent.

USC and Others Are Spending Money Like It’s 2022

Through this recruiting cycle so far, some programs have gotten more active in NIL and they are playing the game like it is 2022. USC, for instance, seems to be throwing millions at recruits right now, and according to Athlon Sports, their NIL cooperatives are going to pay Mater Dei tight end Mark Bowman $10 million to come and play at USC — more than most NFL tight ends make, let alone rookies.

Emmanuel Pregnon (left) lined up at left guard during the Oregon Spring Game. (Photo By: Gary Breedlove)

There are also reports of absolutely insane requests being made by recruits this cycle, like charted flights for their families to all their games and leases on luxury vehicles.  There are also reports of recruits being paid to just commit and stay committed.

And we have already seen this story before. In 2022, Texas A&M spent by far the most on their No. 1 recruiting class, and that class failed to save Jimbo Fisher’s job and has since imploded. Furthermore, Tennessee signed Nico Iamaleava in 2023 to a multi-million dollar contract, and his on-field results have been underwhelming for a price tag that high. He transferred out of Tennessee when he failed to leverage the program’s NIL for more money.

USC’s NIL cooperatives have woken up and are spending money like it’s 2022. And they are recruiting like it too. They are buying their recruiting class without learning from the history of how this has played out in the past. I don’t blame a high school recruit like Bowman for taking that payout — that is enough money to set him up for life.

But what is also clear is that USC is not spending enough of their NIL resources on maintaining their roster. Otherwise, they never would have let their best lineman, Emmanuel Pregnon, transfer out and go to Oregon.

Lanning and Division street are too savvy to play this NIL game and as a result, they are possibly changing their strategy.

Using All of College Football as a Feeder League

Focusing on the transfer portal to fill holes in the roster with proven recruits is a better way of spending Oregon’s NIL money. However, this strategy shift only works because Lanning has proven that he can go into the portal and effectively get whomever he wants, including two of the most coveted positions out of the portal, offensive and defensive linemen.

Derrick Harmon puts fear into Ohio State quarterback Will Howard in October 2024. (Photo By: Eric Becker)

Ajani Cornelius was the best offensive lineman of 2023 in the transfer portal, and Ohio State was pushing for him before he settled on Oregon. He was developed at Oregon and drafted in the sixth round of this year’s NFL draft. Additionally, Derrick Harmon transferred from Michigan State to Oregon in 2024 and certainly elevated his draft stock. He was still likely to be drafted if he stayed at Michigan State, but in transferring to Oregon, he elevated his skills to where he became a first-round pick.

Outside of offensive and defensive line positions, Lanning and his staff has proven they can develop transfer players into draft picks. Bo Nix is probably the poster child for this. He was unlikely to be drafted at all if he stayed with Auburn, but in his two years at Oregon, he boosted his stock enough that he was taken No. 16 overall and had a fantastic rookie season with Denver.

This point was emphasized by one of the best safeties in the 2025 transfer portal, Dillon Thieneman, when he explained why he chose Oregon: “I saw that Oregon’s really good at taking in transfers and developing them and transitioning them to the next level.” With this reputation, Lanning gets almost anyone he wants out of the portal.

This all emphasizes the difference between recruiting the transfer portal instead of high schoolers.  For transfer portal recruits, their priorities tend to be fair pay via NIL, a chance to compete at the top of college football, and the opportunity to elevate their draft stock — all of which Oregon can provide.

This means Oregon can rebuild every year with the best players from other teams who are proven college talent. Just on the offensive line, this year Oregon landed: Alex Harkey from Texas State, Isiah World from Nevada, and Pregnon from USC. All of these linemen were huge gets for Oregon, as they were some of the best linemen in the portal.

Alex Harkey protects Dante Moore in the Spring Game. (Photo By: Gary Breedlove)

In addition to adding Thieneman from Purdue, Oregon landed another defensive back from a B1G team, Theran Johnson from Northwestern. On the face of it, neither of these players come from teams at the top of the B1G as both are typical conference basement dwellers. However, Oregon picked up two experienced players who were perhaps the best players on their former teams.

Oregon is using the rest of college football as feeder programs, not unlike Ohio State and other major programs. They are letting other programs develop diamonds in the rough and then taking them once they hit the portal, continuing their development, and elevating them to the next level.

The position Oregon is in has become highly unique at this stage of the transfer portal. Oregon can supplement their roster with the best players from teams all over the country, including the B1G and SEC. Oregon is able to treat the majority of the college football programs as feeder programs. These teams bring in undiscovered talent that they develop, and then Oregon and other top tier programs take from the transfer portal and polish them into higher NFL draft picks.

Oregon does this at a far more sustainable and reasonable NIL cost than the method many other college football programs are taking this year. Is this what Oregon is doing, or am I outright sunshine pumping Oregon’s transfer recruiting while the Ducks continue to struggle with prep recruits?

David Marsh 
Portland, Oregon
Top Photo By: Gary Breedlove

Andrew Mueller, the FishDuck.com Volunteer Editor for this article, works in higher education in Chicago, Illinois.

 

 

Share your thoughts about this team in the only free, “polite and respectful” Oregon Sports message board, the Our Beloved Ducks forum!

 

For the Exciting 2024 Football Season….

We will be publishing between four and six articles per week during the football season, as we skip Saturdays with all the distraction of GameDay for us. Check through the week, and in particular check for Analysis articles on most Fridays.

The Our Beloved Ducks Forum (OBD) is where we we discuss the article above and many more topics, as it is so much easier in a message board format over there.  At the free OBD forum we will be posting Oregon Sports article links, the daily Press Releases from the Athletic Department and the news coming out every day.

Our 33 rules at the free OBD Forum can be summarized to this: 1) be polite and respectful, 2) do not tell anyone what to think, feel or write, and 3) no reference of any kind to politics. Easy-peasy!

OBD Forum members….we got your back.  No Trolls Allowed!



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What happens when college football enters its own Moneyball era?

Welcome back to MoneyCall, The Athletic’s weekly sports business cheat sheet. (Want to receive MoneyCall in your email inbox every Wednesday morning? Sign-up is simple and free right here.) Name-dropped today: Michael Lewis, Felix Ojo, Ben Shelton, Christian Horner, Steph Curry, Sophia Wilson, Joe Burrow, “High School Musical,” Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano, Mauricio Pochettino, […]

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Welcome back to MoneyCall, The Athletic’s weekly sports business cheat sheet. (Want to receive MoneyCall in your email inbox every Wednesday morning? Sign-up is simple and free right here.)

Name-dropped today: Michael Lewis, Felix Ojo, Ben Shelton, Christian Horner, Steph Curry, Sophia Wilson, Joe Burrow, “High School Musical,” Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano, Mauricio Pochettino, Matthew Berry, John Legend and more. Let’s go:

Driving the Conversation

A fresh twist on Moneyball

This week, as the Big 12 kicks off college football conference media days outside of Dallas, the league finds itself at the center of the college sports universe thanks to Texas Tech, the newest financial superpower.

A month ago, we were talking about TTU’s million-dollar softball ace, NiJaree Canady. This week, it’s the Red Raiders’ multi-million-dollar offensive tackle Felix Ojo. Next, it could even be a commitment from the No. 1 football player in the Class of 2027, LaDamion Guyton.

If Michael Lewis’ original “Moneyball” was about lower-resourced teams capitalizing on market inefficiencies to compete with higher-resourced teams (see: early 2000s A’s vs. the Yankees), “Moneyball 2.0” is an evolution for this new NIL era: What if a mid-tier team — like Texas Tech — simply out-spent everyone else?

It’s not novel, of course. Money has flowed into the hands of college athletes for over a century — but that wasn’t exactly legal until recently. Ohio State’s 2024 title was built on out-spending everyone else — but that mostly was about keeping its own star talent from leaving for the pros or other powers.

Texas Tech is openly leveraging the enthusiasm of billion-dollar boosters — on top of the $20 million revenue-sharing ante now available to every team — into recruiting the talent necessary to compete at the top of the Big 12, earn a College Football Playoff spot and join the ranks of the college “blue bloods.” Call TTU and its nouveau-riche peers “green bloods.”

The ultimate inefficiency of the college football market has always been “willingness to pay without shame.” To the Red Raiders’ credit, they are pushing the boundaries beyond their traditional (or even their previous NIL-era) limits, and — if all it takes is money? — they won’t be the last.

(Remember: The blue bloods have money, too.)


Get Caught Up

A new American sensation at Wimbledon

Big talkers from the sports business industry:

Speaking of disruptive payouts in college sports: Top 2026 NHL Draft prospect Gavin McKenna officially committed to Penn State hockey last night. (Last verse, same as the first: *All it takes is money…*)

(If you’re curious: Penn State … really? Go back to this definitive feature we ran back in April about the rise of Penn State’s hockey program from nothing to … McKenna.)

It’s the heat: From Club World Cup to the Euros to looking ahead to the World Cup in 2026, the weather is THE story.

Ben Shelton vs. Wimbledon
: With the 22-year-old Shelton taking the court this morning (U.S. time) for his Wimbledon quarterfinal against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, he will be the youngest American man to reach the round since Andy Roddick in ‘04. Is Shelton the most exciting American male athlete right now? How many more rounds would he need to win to claim that title?

Man Utd Amazon doc fizzles: Would you watch a behind-the-scenes documentary about the dysfunction at Man U? The fast “Yes!” is probably why they ducked out of that potentially lucrative opportunity, per my colleagues David Ornstein and Adam Crafton.

Breaking news: “Drive To Survive” star personality Christian Horner is OUT as F1 Red Bull team principal.

Other current obsessions: Stephen Curry returning to the American Century celeb golf event to defend his 2023 championship … the British Grand Prix’s LEGO trophies … Joe Burrow’s unexpected star turn on the new season of Netflix’s “Quarterback” … Sophia Wilson x Stumptown Coffee collab … “The Athletic FC’s” fascinating podcast special about Saudis and soccer …


What I’m Wondering

Which 21st century sports movies did YOU love most?

Last week, the lead item of MoneyCall featured my list of 10 best (favorite?) sports movies of the 21st century. But I also asked for yours. Got some great responses, and a few notable omissions from my list that earned a place on yours included:

  • “Miracle” (Steven G.)
  • “Drumline” (Michael P.)
  • “Iron Claw” (Rex B.)
  • “Talladega Nights” (Michael P.)
  • “Boys In The Boat” (Brad J.)
  • “Dangal” (Ishan B.)
  • “Air” (John F.)
  • “Everybody Wants Some!!” (Gus M.)
  • “Warrior” (Andrew S.)
  • “The Replacements” (Alan A.)
  • “Shaolin Soccer” (Kelan F.)

Shout-out to Jaya T., who topped my “‘Whiplash’ is a sports movie” with “‘High School Musical’ is a sports movie trilogy.” Huge thanks to everyone who wrote in!


Grab Bag

What I’m Watching: Taylor-Serrano III
If Netflix’s success with Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul last fall is any indication, there is a big appetite for fighting events among its more than 300 million subscribers.

So what happens when, instead of a clown show, it airs the single best rivalry in boxing? We will see Friday night around 11 p.m. ET, when Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano complete their trilogy after previously putting on two of the best boxing matches of the decade.

(Related: If/when the UFC stages a fight on the White House grounds in 2026, expect an absurd level of attention.)

Data Point: 121,077
That was the 21-71 Rockies’ home attendance vs. the White Sox over July Fourth weekend, via Sportico’s eagle-eyed Jacob Feldman.

That is a TON of paying customers, showing up for an otherwise dreadful team (and matchup!). Why? I asked longtime MoneyCall pal Luke Beatty, a Colorado lifer, entrepreneur, coach and die-hard Denver sports fan:

1) Coors Field is the most popular bar in the state and 2) a huge percentage of the attendees are from out of town, just looking for a nice way to spend an evening on the only MLB in the region.

Branding of the Week: ‘Brawl of the Wild’
Great college football rivalries are taken to another level when they are named in a way that plays up their unique appeal. The annual game between Montana and Montana State gets Chris Vannini’s top spot in his CFB rivalry name rankings, but the whole list is worth reading, because every one of these names is so distinctive.

Investor of the Week: John Legend
Legend was part of a new consortium investing in Matthew Berry’s Fantasy Life fantasy-sports company, alongside other folks including LeBron James and his LRMR partner Maverick Carter, Jason Stein, Roger Ehrenberg and Larry Fitzgerald. Berry has always been one of the most entrepreneurial talents in sports media, and I am so intrigued to see how he grows his company from here. Also, do you think Legend will let me save a spot in his fantasy football league this fall?

Quote of the Week
“I think we need the people. We need the fans. The fans have one year to realize how important are the fans in soccer.” — USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino, after El Tri’s fans dominated the stadium in Houston in the Gold Cup final.

Beat Dan in Connections: Sports Edition
0:47 (but I needed two extra guesses!)

Try the game here!


Worth Your Time

Great business-adjacent reads for your downtime or commute:

The fascinating backstory — not to mention politically charged present and inscrutable future — of the NFL’s relationship with Canada, as manifested through the Buffalo Bills’ efforts to bridge the divide.

Two more:

(1) Illuminating dive into how Real Madrid conquered the United States market.

(2) If your teens are like mine, they don’t have a job this summer. I sent them this link to Cooper Flagg’s origin story as a pea-picker in Maine. Get off the couch, kids!


Back next Wednesday! As for the rest of today, what better way to spend a hot day in July than forwarding MoneyCall to a friend or colleague? And, as always, give a (free!) try to all The Athletic’s other newsletters.

(Photo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)



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How ‘oppressive’ FSU revenue-sharing deals show continued exploitation of college football players | College sports

Revenue sharing is now a feature of college athletics. Thanks to the house settelement signed in May, schools are permitted to spend $20.5m annually across sports, including through expanded scholarships and direct payments (of which it appears football will generally receive approximately 75%). This would seem to mitigate the longstanding problem of exploitation in college […]

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Revenue sharing is now a feature of college athletics. Thanks to the house settelement signed in May, schools are permitted to spend $20.5m annually across sports, including through expanded scholarships and direct payments (of which it appears football will generally receive approximately 75%). This would seem to mitigate the longstanding problem of exploitation in college football.

However, in a sport still defined by extreme injury, recently disclosed provisions in the new Florida State University (FSU) revenue-sharing contract show that schools appear to simply be finding new ways to extract value from players, as ever at startling personal cost.

Per a CBS Sports report, the new FSU contract being distributed to football players reads, in part, “the following circumstances create a breach of contract by Student-Athlete: Student-Athlete experiences any illness or injury which is serious enough to affect the value of the rights granted to [school] under this Agreement.”

In other words: If a player gets injured, the school has leverage to cancel the deal.

Darren Heitner, adjunct law professor at the University of Florida and University of Miami, and an expert on college sports’ name, image and likeness (NIL) deals, was stunned by what he found upon reading the contracts.

“I take no issue with the drafter of a contract creating a document that leans in favor of the drafting party. In fact, that’s expected,” he told us. “However, there is a problem with a contract when it is so unfair, one-sided, and oppressive that it shocks the conscience.

“Reviewing the terms and considering that sometimes 17-year-olds with no legal counsel will be asked to sign on the dotted line, my takeaway is that this rises to the level of unconscionability unless thoroughly negotiated. I have reviewed dozens of revenue-sharing agreements and none compare.”

In a statement given to CBS Sports, FSU said in part that “Each individual situation will be unique and the hypotheticals are impossible to predict. However, we are committed to continuing to provide an elite experience for our student-athletes in all aspects of their collegiate career.”

Injury, of course, is an inherent feature of college football. In our recent book The End of College Football: On the Human Cost of an All-American Game we observe that every 2.6 years of participation in football doubles the chances of contracting the degenerative brain disorder chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) and that 91 percent of American college football players’ brains examined in a pivotal Boston University study displayed neuropathology consistent with CTE. Similarly, participation in football likely increases the chances of developing Parkinson’s disease by 61 percent compared to athletes in other organized sports (and that risk is 2.93 times greater at the college/pro level).

In the book, we interviewed twenty-five former big-time college football players about their experiences in the sport. Many of those players suffered extremely debilitating injuries that caused them to lose seasons or even end careers, including knee reconstructions, torn AC joints, neck surgeries, torn achilles tendons, and countless concussions.

One player told us, “Before I got to college, never had an injury. By the time I left college, I had a medical record book of over six hundred pages. From rehab notes, surgery notes, to MRIs. I had over twelve MRIs total, five knee surgeries. This was while I was playing. . . . Later I found out that I had four torn labrum[s]. So I have a torn labrum on both shoulders, torn labrum on both hips.”

Thus, the question of players being relieved of their contractually agreed upon compensation as a consequence of injury is hardly academic. It will happen, and to many.

“I think the recently revealed contract details from Florida State exemplifies the current attitude of university officials who have completely lost sight of their jobs as educators,” former UCLA and NFL player Chris Kluwe told us. “They view college athletes (and students) as a product to be bought and sold and not human beings, which runs contrary to everything the education system should be.

“In a sport like football where athletes are predominately black and in a state like Florida where the current government seems intent on returning to the Antebellum Era, the fact school officials feel the need to include severe language curtailing players’ rights to the product of their labor is intensely concerning, and highlights the need for a college players union to protect athletes from would-be modern day plantation owners.”

The situation is compounded by the fact that universities don’t provide long-term health insurance to the players, leaving them to bear all the associated costs of their physical hardship. One player we spoke to for the book actually told us that “Long term, just strictly financially … it will have [ended up], like I paid money to play college football.”

Until such time as there are genuine occupational health and safety protections befitting a profession with such profound inherent dangers, it’s clear that the sport is not actually entering a more humane era. The House Settlement has ushered in little more than a new modality for the same old exploitation and harm.



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5-at-10: Sports ripples from political decisions, media days’ first head-turner, Texas Tech money-whipping folks

Sign up for the daily newsletter, Jay’s Plays of the Day, to get sports betting recommendations for the top games of the night and the week ahead. Political ripples in sports We have made a commitment to divide the political from the sporting/pop culture stuff that has become the hallmark of the 5-at-10. But we did […]

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Sign up for the daily newsletter, Jay’s Plays of the Day, to get sports betting recommendations for the top games of the night and the week ahead.

Political ripples in sports

We have made a commitment to divide the political from the sporting/pop culture stuff that has become the hallmark of the 5-at-10.

But we did dip a sporting toe into a political issue Tuesday in discussing the few sentences in the 940 pages of President Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill that could greatly impact the legalized sports betting world.

Earlier this week, sporting news was made when Bryan Reynolds announced he will exercise his no-trade clause to the Mets, the Yankees, the Blue Jays, the Giants, the Dodgers or Padres — all postseason contenders — because of the political climates in those cities, states and countries.

This morning, The Athletic shared a detailed story explaining the political issues for the Buffalo Bills heading into the NFL season with the strained relations between the U.S. and Canada.

With slowing traffic across the border with our neighbors to the north, you have to wonder how many of the 8,000-plus Bills season ticket holders who live in Canada will continue to be patrons.

Yes, the Bills Mafia is undyingly loyal.

And yes, the Bills are one of the three or five true Super Bowl contenders.

But when 21% of a nation’s population lives within an NFL team’s home territory — like Canada’s does around Buffalo — the ripples are real.

Media daze

The annual cavalcade of coaches and star players head to major hotel ballrooms to meet with story-hungry media pros looking for a few juicy headlines.

Rarely does that deliver anything worth much once preseason practices start next month.

We had a rare moment of honesty from the Big 12 event from UCF Coach Scott Frost.

Frost, a Heisman winner at Nebraska, was at UCF eight years ago and had the Golden Knights rolling.

He left after an undefeated regular season in 2017 and returned to his alma mater try and redirect the once-elite Cornhuskers program.

It did not go well, and Frost was fired after four-plus seasons and a 16-31 record.

He’s back at UCF for a second tour.

“I didn’t want to leave UCF,” he told The Athletic. “I always said I would never leave unless it was some place you could go and potentially win a national championship. I got tugged in a direction to go try to help my alma mater, and I didn’t really want to do it. It wasn’t a good move. I’m lucky to get back to a place where I was a lot happier.”

He continued with, “Don’t take the wrong job, that’s what I learned. Make sure you’re working for and around good people.”

Man, Frost’s next trip back for homecoming in Lincoln will be, shall we say, frosty.

A new superpower

Texas Tech is becoming a microwaved recruiting power — across multiple sports — in the current NIL model.

They turned their softball program by making NiJaree Canady the first seven-figure softball player in the NIL world.

(Side note: Canady agreed to another big-dollar deal to become the brand ambassador with Venmo’s new deal with the Big 12 as a whole. Man, when a softball star is the face of the league for a product like Venmo, well, you know she has juice.)

Texas Tech has a couple of billionaire oil alums named Cody Campbell and John Sellers, and they are funding the NIL collectives of their former school.

It paid more dividends over the weekend as it was announced that five-star OT and top-10 national recruit Felix Ojo inked a three-year NIL deal worth between $2.3 and $5.1 million, depending on reports.

Ojo, the top prep player in Texas, picked the Red Raiders over Texas and THE Ohio State.

Welcome to the free-agentization of the recruiting process. Sure, we’re used to it in team sports. Heck, we’re even used to it in the current renditions of the portal.

But now it’s an open market for these kids coming out of high school, and at least by the sounds of it, Texas Tech got a long-term deal from this prized recruit. (Until he pulls a Nico Iamaleava, that is.)

Which truly means there will be a changing dynamic within these programs moving forward.

With finite numbers of resources — even Texas oil and limitless alums at places like THE OSU, Oregon and others — scouting becomes paramount, because committing 10-plus-% of your up-to $20.5 million revenue share kitty could be program derailing and a coaching contract deal-breaker.

Thoughts?

This and that

› The Braves played. The Braves got smoked. And in truth, they are committing MLB malpractice by continuing to run 20-year-old Didier Fuentes out to the mound. He got three outs — against the 38-55 A’s, mind you — and allowed three homers in his eight earned runs.

› We mentioned the EA Sports College Football game that drops Thursday in Tuesday morning’s conversation. This year’s game has an added degree of difficulty playing on the road, and here are the top-25 hardest places to play according to the game designers. LSU’s Tiger Stadium is 1, as it should be — especially after dark.

› UT football recruiting keeps rolling. Here’s more from Paschall, who notes the Fightin’ Heupels now have a five-star QB, a five-star OT and two of the top-five LBs in the country.

› The WNBA All-Star teams were announced. Here are the rosters and starters after captains Caitlin Clark and Napheesa Collier picked the squads. One, book me on a Paige Bueckers prop to be MVP at plus-2300. Two, Rhyne Howard — the former Bradley Central star and the featured speaker at the Best of Preps last month — is a Team Collier reserve. Three, great decision to have Angel Reese and Clark on opposite sides.

Today’s questions

› Which Way Wednesday starts here: Which of the “toughest places to play” list by EA Sports College Football is the most-misplaced?

› Which of those top-25 places have you watched a game? I’ve been to 11 of the 25.

› Which non-traditional power has the chance to make the biggest college football jump with the NIL possibilities out there?

Answer some WWWs, ask some WWWs.

As for today, July 9, let’s review:

› “Barbie” premiered on this day in 2023. Spy hearts Barbie.

› “Donkey Kong” was released on this day in Japan in 1981. It swallowed many of a young 5-at-10’s quarters back in the day.

› Tom Hanks is 69 today. I feel certain we’ve done his Rushmore.

› O.J. was born on this day in 1947.

› Fred Savage is 49 today. Yes, that made me feel wicked old.

› Rushmore of preteen lead TV characters in the modern era, because I think Savage’s turn as Kevin Arnold in “Wonder Years” has to be there.

Go, and remember the mailbag.



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The Portal Predicament | The Key Play

In college football discourse, there’s a tendency to talk about the transfer portal and NIL as unprecedented pillars of change that have disturbed a previously tranquil landscape. Don’t get me wrong: this is very much a new era of college sports. But as a history guy, I have a different perspective. College sports have always […]

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In college football discourse, there’s a tendency to talk about the transfer portal and NIL as unprecedented pillars of change that have disturbed a previously tranquil landscape.

Don’t get me wrong: this is very much a new era of college sports. But as a history guy, I have a different perspective.

College sports have always been marked by change. In the 1950’s, scholarships were formally legalized as teams began to offer financial inducements to attract talent. The two-platoon system was implemented in 1964, allowing for unlimited substitutions and making football programs prohibitively more expensive to maintain. The 80’s ushered in the era of massive TV contracts, leading to the first big wave of conference realignment and the formation of de jure “power conferences” in the 90’s. In the 2010’s, Nick Saban implemented the support staff model at Alabama that fundamentally restructured football departments.

The transfer portal, in conjunction with NIL, just happens to be the change of our era. And schools will continue to adapt.

This offseason, Virginia Tech has hammered the portal like never before under Brent Pry, bringing in 30 transfer additions. As of now, over one-third of the players on Tech’s roster began their careers elsewhere, and an even higher percentage will occupy the two-deep.

It’s a perfect time, then, to talk about the ramifications of the Hokies going portal-heavy — and how the portal has changed college football as a whole.

The Portal: In Exercise in Volatility

While the negatives of the transfer portal are discussed ad nauseum, there are upsides as well. Big-time programs can no longer stash elite talent on the bench; players leave before they can be developed by those big schools; and there’s less roster continuity across the board.

All this has led to increased volatility in the sport. For instance: last year, Indiana showed the greatest single-season improvement in adjusted efficiency, according to SP+, for any Power Four team ever. Ever!

(Okay, since at least 2005, but probably ever.)

In fact, five of the nine biggest single-season improvements by any team have occurred in just the last three years. Among them: Arizona State’s squad that made a Cinderella run to the CFP last season, and a trio of teams in 2022 (Duke, Kansas, TCU) that were all led by first- or second-year head coaches.



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University of Louisville athlete pay, NIL deals, revenue-sharing terms

The revenue-sharing era is just over one week old, and since then dozens of athletes have signed agreements with the University of Louisville. The revenue-sharing era of college sports is just over a week old. The House v. NCAA settlement, approved by Judge Claudia Wilken last month, established a revenue-sharing system whereby schools can directly pay their athletes […]

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The revenue-sharing era is just over one week old, and since then dozens of athletes have signed agreements with the University of Louisville.

The revenue-sharing era of college sports is just over a week old.

The House v. NCAA settlement, approved by Judge Claudia Wilken last month, established a revenue-sharing system whereby schools can directly pay their athletes starting July 1 with a $20.5 million cap per institution. Andrew Brandt, former vice president of the Green Bay Packers and current consultant to the University of Louisville Athletic Association, spoke with The Courier Journal about the revenue-sharing contracts U of L is using with its athletes.

Brandt and Louisville drew up these agreements over the winter. They’ve since been signed by “dozens and dozens” of athletes, Brandt said Monday.

In March, Governor Andy Beshear signed Senate Bill 3 into law, which amended the state’s name, image and likeness legislation so that it would allow schools to pay athletes directly in accordance with the House settlement. This law also made agreements between schools and athletes exempt from disclosure through public records requests. The school’s public records office told The Courier Journal “The University of Louisville does not maintain a final NIL template. The terms of these agreements are individually negotiated and executed.” But Brandt said the department tries to keep contracts standard across sports.

Some terminology like “game” versus “match” or “competition” may vary, as may contract duration based on timing of negotiations and length of seasons. But otherwise, contracts outline the nature of the agreement, compensation and responsibilities of both parties (the school and the athletes).

One thing that distinguishes these agreements from the professional ones Brandt spent more than a decade negotiating in the NFL is that college players are not employees. There is language specifically addressing this tricky dynamic in Louisville’s contracts. There’s no collective bargaining agreement or free agency rules either. At the collegiate level, schools are buying the rights to athletes’ names, images and likenesses, Brandt said, as opposed to years of service in an employer-employee setup.

Depending on when a contract is negotiated and signed, and depending on the seasonal windows of each sport, an athlete’s contract term could last anywhere from six months to 10 months or even a year, Brandt said. Payments will be distributed in the form of installments throughout the term, though some athletes’ situations may warrant “money at the beginning that’s not necessarily a signing bonus, but an early payment before the monthly payments start.”

For example, a football player’s contract term would coincide with the season with payments continuing into January and February, Brandt said. A basketball player’s payments would “certainly continue through April, perhaps longer, depending on the situation.”

As far as athlete responsibilities go, those are also mostly standard across the department.

“We have similar responsibilities for every student athlete according to our contract,” Brandt added. “I’m not going to get into the specifics of what those are, but terms and conditions for UL and for the student athlete, and that’s spelled out throughout the contract. And again, that’s the form we like to use for all student athletes, regardless of sport. There’ll be some modifications sometimes, as I said, for certain sports.”

Brandt declined to answer whether student code of conduct or GPA eligibility requirements were included on the list of athlete responsibilities but did say that “those are discussions.” He also declined to answer how an athlete redshirting would impact the structure of their deal or compensation but did say “red shirts are addressed in the contract.” When asked whether Louisville’s contracts included any financial penalties levied against an athlete for entering the transfer portal, Brandt declined to answer.

He also declined to answer whether athletes from all varsity sports at the University of Louisville were signing these agreements or just those who played for revenue-generating programs. Athletics director Josh Heird presented a budget for the 2026 fiscal year that had football, men’s basketball, women’s basketball, volleyball and baseball generating revenue. Only football ($25.5 million) and men’s basketball ($12.1 million) generated revenue in the 2024 fiscal year. Heird has not shared publicly how U of L will be divvying up the $20.5 million among its athletes.

When asked whether they’ll include performance incentives like bonuses for winning conference player of the year or averaging certain stats, Brandt said these agreements primarily cover NIL rights and compensation, but they’re starting to address performance and non-performance as well. When asked again Monday, Brandt declined to answer but said “this is all a work in progress.”

“We’re going to look at it as we prepare for the next cycle and see what we can do better, what we can make consistent with all sports, what we can’t, what parameters we’re going to add, subtract,” Brandt said. “… It’s a living document.”

Reach college sports enterprise reporter Payton Titus at ptitus@gannett.com, and follow her on X @petitus25.

This story was updated to add a gallery.  



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What Gavin McKenna’s commitment means for the NCAA, CHL, Penn State, NIL and more

It has been eight months, almost to the day, since the NCAA voted to open up eligibility to Canadian Hockey League players. We’re now weeks away from the official Aug. 1, 2025 date set by the Division I Council. The flow of college hockey commitments from OHL, QMJHL and WHL players is now ramping up […]

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It has been eight months, almost to the day, since the NCAA voted to open up eligibility to Canadian Hockey League players. We’re now weeks away from the official Aug. 1, 2025 date set by the Division I Council.

The flow of college hockey commitments from OHL, QMJHL and WHL players is now ramping up as each school’s admittance deadline for the fall semester approaches — as are CHL clubs’ efforts to develop relationships with agencies and NCAA programs and recruit players across the border in the other direction from U.S. minor hockey, Canadian Jr. A and the USHL.

On Tuesday night, when the reigning CHL Player of the Year and No. 1 prospect in the 2026 NHL Draft class, Gavin McKenna, announced on ESPN’s SportsCenter his decision to commit to play his draft year at Penn State University, it marked the biggest decision since November’s rule change and arguably the biggest freshman recruitment in the history of college hockey.

Here’s where the landscape stands and what it means for the NCAA, CHL, Penn State and the rippling impact of NIL money in the sport.


Different approaches around the NCAA in new era

Penn State’s approach in this new era of recruiting has been pretty clear: The Nittany Lions have positioned themselves and their NIL pot as a major player financially and are looking to capitalize on the momentum of a Frozen Four appearance to sell their first-class facilities, coaching staff (led by head coach Guy Gadowsky) and Hockey Valley as a new top destination for players.

But more interesting than that to me over the last several months has been the different ways schools are going about their sales pitch. Michigan State has really sold its coaching staff under Adam Nightingale and the renewed history and facilities at Munn Ice Arena to successfully recruit top classes and transfers. I heard a lot about Boston College, Boston University and Maine spending time in QMJHL rinks this year, and Maine has had some positive early successes tapping into Quebec and eastern Canada for players. Colorado College under Kris Mayotte has smartly recruited mid-round picks who were top players for their CHL teams, but are maybe not marquee names. Nebraska-Omaha is trying to carve out a reputation as a U Sports recruiter and has successfully recruited a class of former top CHLers who didn’t get pro deals and were stars at Canadian universities last year. North Dakota is using geography, history and a new staff structure to go after the top players in western Canada and has already landed two big ones in top 2026 prospect Keaton Verhoeff and 2025 first-rounder Cole Reschny. And there are other programs, like the University of Minnesota which has so heavily focused on players from within the state for so long, that haven’t yet made the same kind of inroads.

Who has success doing what is going to be one of the fascinating stories of the next few years in college hockey.

The CHL will still be the CHL

I think there’s been a bit of hyperbole and conjecture in all of this about the ultimate fate of the CHL.

There have been a little over 150 commitments made by CHL players to the NCAA. Of those, roughly 85 percent are graduating or 19-year-old players, meaning only a little over 20 players aged 17-18 have so far made the move for next year. In the last couple of weeks, several first-rounders who had interest from top NCAA programs, including Jake O’Brien, Benjamin Kindel and Lynden Lakovic, have decided to return to the CHL and sign entry-level contracts with their NHL clubs. (Look out for a few more in the next couple of weeks.)

It’s still a sensitive topic and time for the leagues, their teams and owners and fans in 61 hockey markets.

The counterflow back the other way and into the CHL has been real as well, though. More than 25 USHL players made the move to the CHL this season, and others, like Sharks second-rounder Haoxi Wang, made the move out of Canadian Jr. A and into the league. In the fall, college-bound USHL players like Blake Montgomery and Lev Katzin made quick decisions to come north. Other top young Canadian players like Adam Valentini and Caleb Malhotra, who didn’t previously have the CHL as an option after they made NCAA commitments, are now choosing it as their preferred path into college. A record number of American players were taken in the 2025 OHL Priority Selection. Some of the bigger programs think they can challenge the U.S. NTDP for top American talent now. The Quebec Remparts were aggressive in the QMJHL draft, targeting prospects in the U.S. The Saint John Sea Dogs have a history of pulling American players from the northeast of the U.S. that they can now lean on. The Penticton Vees, the CHL’s newest franchise, have a similar history out west and established relationships with NCAA programs. I’ve heard that franchises like Portland, Moncton and Kitchener have also worked hard to establish lines of communication with agencies and schools.

“There’s this big thing that we hate them and they hate us, but we’ve all got buddies who coach in the NCAA,” one OHL general manager told The Athletic.

“In my eyes, build a good program, have good coaching, development, communication, then why would they leave? It’s the best development league in the world,” said another OHL general manager.

Just last week, the Brantford Bulldogs secured USHL and Czech national team star Adam Benák, a Wild prospect, in the CHL Import Draft. The Regina Pats drafted USHL goalie and Red Wings prospect Michal Pradel. The Sea Dogs drafted Olivers Murnieks, a potential top-two-rounds pick in 2026, who played last season in the USHL. On Monday, I got a text about Nikita Klepov, another potential top-two-rounds pick in 2026 who played in the USHL last season and may end up in Saginaw next year. The list goes on.

“Once everything kind of settles, is it a bad thing? I don’t know if it’s a bad thing,” said a QMJHL head coach.

The $ — and NIL — of it all

Money talks.

It has always talked loudly in hockey, an expensive sport made up predominantly of well-to-do people.

But it’s talking louder than ever in the sport right now, and McKenna’s package from Penn State has set a new bar. Not that long ago, top NHL prospects were telling me they were getting branded sweaters and free meals at local restaurants as their NIL packages. McKenna’s package, all in all, is rumored to be upwards of $700,000 USD — or in and around a million CAD. (I haven’t been able to verify that number with people connected to McKenna, but it’s the biggest package ever given to a college hockey player.)

The CHL’s three leagues remain in good positions to hold their standings as the NHL’s top leagues for developing players. Several markets, including Brantford and Ottawa, have new arenas in the works. On Tuesday morning, at the height of McKenna Watch, the Drummondville Voltigeurs announced a complete overhaul of their Centre Marcel Dionne. There is big money behind organizations like Moncton and Saint John. In May, players’ area upgrades were announced for The Aud, Kitchener’s legendary arena. Other teams have reached out to their municipalities for the first time in decades in an effort to take this moment to improve their facilities and offerings.

“It puts a little bit of the onus on the owners of upscaling what they have to offer for facilities,” one OHL coach told The Athletic.

However, many CHL clubs can’t compete with the money and facilities offered at the big American schools. I’ve been to dozens of the CHL’s rinks and virtually all of the NCAA’s big schools. I’ve been behind the scenes at Wisconsin’s Kohl Center and Labahn Arena, and Michigan State’s newly upgraded and iconic Munn Ice Arena. I know what they’re up against. But where the money goes, the players will benefit. That’s true in both the NCAA and CHL, where the developments of the last year are only positive for what they mean for the pockets of the players and the amenities and paths they’ll have available to them on either side of the border.

There’s fear within the CHL and the NCAA that the rich will get richer and smaller markets and schools will have an even tougher time competing with the likes of London in the CHL and the powerhouses in the Big Ten or Hockey East than they already do, but smart hockey and business minds will find niches and avenues forward.

A program-shaping time for Penn State

The Nittany Lions didn’t become a Division I hockey program until 2011. When they did, they brought in Guy Gadowsky, previously of Princeton and Alaska-Fairbanks. In their second season as a Division I program, they played as a conference-less independent school. They’ve yet to produce an NHL player of note. But after a stunning run to the Frozen Four following a difficult, testy start to last season, they’ve now suddenly emerged, with their big-money backing (and their Pegula Ice Arena — with all of its bells and whistles — named after it), as a front-runner in the recruiting race for top talent. Last year’s team helped turn Nashville Predators prospect Aiden Fink into one of the country’s top scorers and overager Charlie Cerrato into a second-round pick, but they’ve never had a best-in-class freshman class, or even a freshman class of any notoriety. Now, after landing big transfer portal gets like Mac Gadowsky, Guy’s son, and goaltender Kevin Reider, they’ve also lured freshmen like Blue Jackets first-rounder Jackson Smith, Flames prospect Luke Misa and now McKenna.

And it cannot be overstated what McKenna does for the Nittany Lions. Not only is it a transformational time for the program and its boosters, it could create another potential giant in a Big Ten conference that had already had quite the glow-up over the last several years thanks to the re-emergence of Michigan State and the continued relevance of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin (albeit with mixed on-ice results for the latter).

A player like McKenna in Hockey Valley was unthinkable a short time ago. Part of the impetus of his decision was to put his mark on the program he chose. In choosing Penn State, he changes everything for them.

(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)



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