The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Chris Sale ($9,400) Atlanta Braves (-180) vs. San Diego Padres

There are a bunch of good pitchers on Friday’s slate, but no one checks all of the boxes for DFS purposes. Zack Wheeler is the most expensive pitcher, but he has an opponent implied team total of 4.2 runs against a solid Athletics’ lineup. Nick Pivetta’s Vegas data is even worse, while Pablo Lopez has a mediocre K Prediction against a Royals’ lineup that is tough to strike out. All three players have some potential on most slates, but they don’t stand out as truly exciting on Friday.

Sale is probably the closest thing to a stud pitcher on Friday. His matchup vs. the Padres isn’t ideal, but their 95 wRC+ vs. southpaws makes them a bit less formidable than they are against righties. Their 3.3 implied run total is the lowest mark on the slate, while Sale’s -180 moneyline odds make him the fifth-largest favorite.

Sale is also a better pitcher than his current salary indicates. He won the NL Triple Crown last season, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts. His numbers are down this season, but that stems primarily from a tough stretch to start the year. He’s been much better of late, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six straight starts. He’s added at least eight strikeouts in five of them, and he’s cracked double-digit strikeouts in two.

The strikeout upside is really what sets Sale apart from his peers. He ranks in the 90th percentile for strikeout rate, and his 6.98 K Prediction ranks first among Friday’s starters. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.76 (per the Trends tool).

Ultimately, Sale is a pitcher who should clearly be priced above $10,000 at this point, but we’re still getting him at a slight discount thanks to his slow start. 

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Clarke Schmidt ($7,200) New York Yankees (-295) at Colorado Rockies

Pitching in Coors Field is never fun, but the Rockies have been so bad this season that it hasn’t really mattered. They’re still merely 22nd in the league in runs per game when playing at home, and they’re 28th in wRC+ when facing a right-hander in Coors Field.

Outside of the location, Schmidt has a lot of things working for him. Most importantly, he plays for one of the best teams in the league. The Yankees have an elite offense, and they’re currently implied for 7.5 runs in this matchup. That gives Schmidt massive win potential. He checks in as a -295 moneyline favorite, and no other pitcher is currently above -194.

It’s rare to get such a large favorite at just a $7,200 price tag. There have only been 28 previous instances in our Trends database of pitchers with comparable moneyline odds and K Predictions, and those starters have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.48. That’s tough to ignore.

Schmidt also stands out as one of the best pure values at the position on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a 98% Bargain Rating, and he leads all starters in projected Plus/Minus. He’s a viable SP2 in all formats.

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MLB DFS GPP Picks

Yusei Kikuchi ($8,200) Los Angeles Angels (-152) vs. Miami Marlins

Kikuchi is the definition of a mediocre pitcher, and he’s been even more mediocre than usual in 2025. His 3.50 ERA is a slight improvement compared to last season, but his 4.72 xERA is significantly worse. He’s also had one of the worst strikeout seasons of his career, ranking in just the 45th percentile for strikeout rate. However, that shouldn’t matter too much vs. the Marlins. They’ve been well below average against left-handers this season, and Kikuchi has pretty solid Vegas marks for his price tag. He checks in near the top of the projected Plus/Minus leaderboards in both the Fantasy Labs and BAT X projections.

Pablo Lopez ($9,900) Minnesota Twins (-190) vs. Kansas City Royals

The matchup vs. the Royals is far from ideal for Lopez. They have the lowest strikeout rate in the league vs. right-handers, and Lopez isn’t exactly a strikeout artist to begin with. That said, Lopez is just a really good pitcher. He’s posted a 2.40 ERA this season, and his 2.81 xERA puts him in the 85th percentile. He also grades out as well above average in most batted-ball metrics, while his strikeout numbers are slightly up in 2025. Like Sale, this is a pitcher who simply shouldn’t be available at a sub-$10k price tag. Sale also figures to soak up most of the ownership in this price range, making Lopez an intriguing pivot for tournaments.

Sandy Alcantara ($7,700) Miami Marlins (+128) at Los Angeles Angels

It has been sad to watch Alcantara’s return to the bump this season. He hasn’t looked like nearly the same pitcher that he was in his prime, posting a dreadful 7.99 ERA with terrible underlying metrics. Alcantara has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his past seven starts, but he’s had to navigate a bear of a schedule. He’s already faced the Dodgers twice, the Mets, and the Phillies this season, all of which grade out as high-end MLB offenses. He hasn’t exactly thrived in his “easy” matchups, either, but perhaps he can turn things around moving forward. He’s in a great spot to do that on Friday, with the Angels ranking 23rd in wRC+ with the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers.

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MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by projected points belongs to the New York Yankees:

The Yankees’ offense stands out as the clear top target on this slate. They’re already one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in the league in runs per game, and now they get to play in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball.

They’re also facing an extremely hittable pitcher in Tanner Gordon. Chase Dollander will not make his scheduled start after landing on the IL with forearm tightness, and Gordon pitched to an 8.65 ERA in eight starts with the Rockies last season. He’s at 5.68 through one start this year, so the Yankees have massive potential.

The more interesting question is, what is the best way to stack the Yankees? It starts with Aaron Judge and Trent Grisham. Judge is the best hitter in the world at the moment, and he and Grisham have both demolished right-handers so far this season (via Plate IQ):

The big wrinkle is that it’s impossible to stack the top five in the Yankees’ order. Four of those players are eligible only in the outfield, so you’ll need to get a little bit creative. That makes Austin Wells an interesting option as the projected No. 7 hitter. Not only has he fared well against right-handers this season, but he fills the tricky catcher spot in your lineup.

The big downside with the Yankees is their price tag. Judge alone will set you back $7,000, and their top stack costs more than $28,000. That makes pairing them with a stud pitcher virtually impossible, and you’ll likely need to utilize a few punt plays to round out your lineup. That’s still doable, and if the Yankees go off, it could be well worth it.

Not interested in messing around with optimizer settings? No worries, you can use our MLB DFS Simulations and let it find the best way to control your stacks, exposure, correlations, and more!

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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections,  THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Joc Pederson 1B ($2,400) Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox (Sean Burke)

Pederson got off to a ridiculously slow start for the Rangers this season, and his numbers for the year still look pretty dismal. However, he has at least shown some signs of life recently. He’s homered in two of his past eight starts, and Pederson has a long track record of success at the MLB level. He was a well-above-average hitter for the Diamondbacks last season, posting a 151 wRC+, so there’s no reason he should continue to struggle forever.

Pederson will be in a very favorable spot Friday vs. Burke. His 4.69 ERA doesn’t jump off the page as disastrous, but his 6.55 xERA is significantly worse. He’s also allowed some of the loudest contact in baseball this season, ranking in the 16th percentile for barrel rate while allowing 1.69 homers per nine innings. Ultimately, Pederson has far more upside than his current salary suggests, and he has the top projected Plus/Minus among non-Yankees using the blended projections.

Jordan Lawlar ($2,000) Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)

Lawlar is priced at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, and he’s expected to bat ninth for the Diamondbacks on Friday. That’s not the most appealing combination, but Lawlar is not your typical No. 9 batter. He entered this season as one of the top prospects in baseball, and he has the potential to be a future star.

He tore up Triple-A to begin the year, posting a 143 wRC+ with six homers and 13 steals in just 37 games. He’s yet to have that kind of production at the major league level, but there’s no reason why it can’t come sooner rather than later.

Mikolas is definitely not a pitcher that we need to fear. He owns a 4.45 xERA for the year, and he’s been one of the worst strikeout pitchers in baseball. Lawlar should be able to put the bat on the ball in this matchup, and with his talent, that could lead to a breakout performance.

Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ($5,500) Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (Nick Pivetta)

Acuna will suit up for the first time in 2025 when the Braves host the Padres on Friday. Just in case you need a reminder, Acuna is really freaking good. The last time we saw him for a full season, he became the first player in MLB history with more than 40 homers and 70 steals in 2023. He’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet, and he should move right into his usual spot atop the Braves’ lineup.

$5,500 could be the cheapest that we see Acuna all year. He’s also not going to garner a ton of attention in his first game back, so he’s a very interesting pivot for those who aren’t stacking the Yankees.

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Pictured: Aaron Judge
Photo Credit: Getty Images