The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.

MLB DFS Pitching Picks

MLB DFS Stud Pick

Zac Gallen ($9,000) Arizona Diamondbacks (-340) vs. Colorado Rockies

Of the 16 starting pitchers on the main slate this Saturday, Gallen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections on the slate in our FantasyLabs projections and in THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. Gallen also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections since his salary is relatively affordable at just $9,000, the fourth-highest on the slate.

Gallen’s Diamonbacks are the heaviest favorites on the board, according to our Vegas Dashboard, and the Rockies have the lowest implied run total.

The matchup is a huge plus in Gallen’s favor since the Rockies have been miserable at the plate all season. Despite the Coors Field factor, they have scored the fewest runs in Major League Baseball, averaging only 3.13 runs per game. On the road, they have been an even better matchup, averaging just 2.0 runs per game while going 2-21 with a .184 team batting average and 28.9% strikeout rate.

Gallen has had his ups and downs this season but should be able to deliver in this matchup. He is 3-5 in nine starts with a 4.59 ERA but a better 3.93 FIP and 3.64 xERA, which indicate he has pitched a little better than his ERA shows. His strikeout rate is solid at 9.5 K/9 after racking up 54 strikeouts in 51 innings.

In his last start, the Dodgers knocked him around and handed him the loss, but before that, he had back-to-back strong outings against the Mets to earn 28.5 and 26.5 DraftKings points. He should be set to bounce back Saturday.

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MLB DFS Value Pick

Ronel Blanco ($7,800) Houston Astros (+120) at Texas Rangers

Blanco has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus in the FantasyLabs projection along with a top-five ceiling, median, and floor projection even though he doesn’t have a top-five salary at the position. He also comes into this road matchup in Arlington with good momentum.

Blanco looked masterful in his start last Sunday against the Reds, allowing just two hits in eight shutout innings and posting a career-high 11 strikeouts. He finished with 42.2 DraftKings points in that outing while improving his record to 3-3 on the season.

His 4.04 ERA and 4.12 FIP are a little inflated due to some rough outings early in the year, but his 2.83 xERA shows he has limited hard contact. He has been trending the right way with at least six strikeouts in three straight starts and at least 14 DraftKings points in four straight appearances, culminating in last Sunday’s masterpiece.

He’ll look to build off that outing in a tough road matchup against the Rangers, where he comes in as the underdog. However, the Rangers’ lineup isn’t at full strength and has been held to four runs or fewer in four of their last five games, including in each of the first two games in this series.

Blanco has a high ceiling, and if his strikeout totals remain elevated, he also brings a very solid floor on the road on Saturday night.

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MLB DFS GPP Pick

Landen Roupp ($6,800) San Francisco Giants (-131) vs. Athletics

Roupp has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of the starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections, and he also matches the second-most Pro Trends on the slate coming into Saturday’s home start against the Athletics.

In his eight starts, Roupp is 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 3.42 xERA. He has only allowed a 30.3% hard-hit rate and picked up 42 strikeouts in 40 innings. The 26-year-old righty has done almost all his work on the road, with his last three outings coming in San Diego, Chicago, and Minneapolis.

Roupp has worked at least five innings in five of his last seven starts and flashed a high ceiling with 30.2 fantasy points in an outing against the Angels in April. He gave up nine earned runs in 14 1/3 innings over his last three starts and took the loss in two of those outings, but this should be a spot where he can bounce back at home against the A’s.

The Athletics are a fairly neutral matchup, ranking in the middle of the pack in most categories and splits. They only managed one run in the series opener and have dropped three straight while scoring a total of six runs.

In this matchup, Roupp will likely have low ownership but brings enough potential that he’s a GPP bargain to consider. Not only does he have some upside himself, but he also saves plenty of salary for other pay-up plays.

If you’re craving more MLB DFS or betting tools, be sure to check out one of our most powerful tools on the site—PlateIQ.

MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks

Notable Stack

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.

The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model, when generated by projected points using the tournament model, belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:

The Dodgers dropped the opener of this version of the Freeway Series on Friday night, but they are in a good spot to bounce back on Saturday night and make a good stacking target, although they definitely don’t come cheaply. They’ll face former Dodger Tyler Anderson ($8,200) on Saturday, who is 2-1 in eight starts with a 2.58 ERA but a 4.59 FIP and seven home runs allowed in eight outings.

Anderson’s reverse splits actually show that lefties have a good matchup against him since they are hitting .289 with a .452 wOBA and have hit four of his seven homers allowed in just 41 plate appearances. That plays to the Dodgers’ strengths, especially with Shohei Ohtani ($6,600) and Freddie Freeman ($6,300) locked in.

Ohtani has been red hot with eight homers in his last 11 games. During that span, he has a .378 batting average, a .587 wOBA, and a 36.1% barrel rate. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all hitters this Saturday and is the heart of the Dodgers stack for Saturday.

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Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.

Corbin Carroll OF ($6,100) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (German Marquez)

Carroll always brings a high ceiling with his power and speed combo from the top of the D-Backs’ batting order, and he is a great pay-up play on Saturday night against Marquez and the Rockies.

On Friday, Carroll went 2-for-5 with a double, a stolen base, and 15 DraftKings points. he has three multiple-hit games in his last four and has produced double-digit fantasy points in eight of his last 12 contests. He went 15-for-48 (.313) during that stretch with a .459 wOBA and a 52.6% hard-hit rate.

He stole a base in each of his last two games and is up to seven stolen bases to go with his 14 homers, giving him multiple ways to go off for a big fantasy day.

Marquez has allowed 36 runs in 37 innings this season, going 1-6 with a 1.70 WHIP and 5.20 xFIP. He has been hit by both lefties and righties, and his struggles haven’t been related to Coors Field, as his road ERA is 10.53.

The Diamondbacks and Dodgers are both strong options to consider at home on Saturday night, and here’s how Arizona’s lineup looks in our PlateIQ tool, which I think looks especially sharp in dark mode:

Jordan Lawlar SS ($2,300) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (German Marquez)

Another option that stands out in Arizona’s lineup is Jordan Lawlar, who is an outstanding value play if he gets the start and creates a wraparound stack, potentially hitting right in front or Carroll if he hits ninth as expected.

Lawlar is 0-for-4 in his two games since joining the D-Backs earlier this week, and he did not play on Friday. The former top prospect still brings a lot of upside based on his exceptional numbers at Triple-A earlier this season. He was limited by injury last year, so the team started him in the minors this season. He hit an impressive .336 with six home runs, 15 doubles, two triples, 13 stolen bases, and a .433 wOBA in 37 games for the Reno Aces before his promotion earlier this week.

If he starts against Marquez, he could be a great bargain option, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shortstop on the entire slate since his salary is barely over the minimum.

Taylor Ward OF ($3,200) Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw)

Ward has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the outfield on Saturday night and brings a very nice ceiling against the Dodgers. He and the Angels will take on veteran lefty Clayton Kershaw in his first start of the season.

In four of his last five games, Ward has exceeded salary-based expectations, going 7-for-20 (.350) with a 50% hard-hit rate. He has 10 homers on the season with a .305 wOBA and has power potential against Kershaw.

Last season, he hit .325 against lefties with a .375 wOBA, and that has been the strong side of his splits throughout his career. The fact that he’s struggled against southpaws this season is likely just a result of a small sample size. Since he’s picked it up lately, he makes a good value play on Saturday’s slate.

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