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Heading into year four of the Joey McGuire era of Texas Tech football, the Red Raiders are at a pretty interesting spot. This is a team that, given the influx of NIL money and the way that TTU worked in the transfer portal, could conceivably make a run for the Big 12 championship this season. Or, well, that’s at least the hope. 

While it previously appears like Texas Tech may have hit a ceiling under McGuire’s leadership with an average of 7-8 wins a season, the Red Raiders might be a bit closer to breaking through than what some are comfortable acknowledging. Yes, Texas Tech gave up 51 points to Abilene Christian a season ago, but the Red Raiders also went out and put up a 6-3 Big 12 record last season. 

So, maybe with the hiring of brilliant young coaching minds like a brand new defensive coordinator in Shiel Wood and a brand new offensive coordinator in Mack Leftwich, we’ll see some improvement in the very near future.

Oh, and by the way, the Red Raiders also managed to churn through their roster (shoutout to that aforementioned NIL push and the transfer portal) that resulted in 20ish new players showing up in Lubbock to help reinforce things across the board.

But as one anonymous coach told Athlon Sports, it’s not clear if that sort of spending will put the Red Raiders on the throne of the Big 12 in just one cycle. 

Rival Big 12 coach questions if Texas Tech football will be elevated into conference championship contenders via NIL spending

“They’re better pretty much everywhere, obviously. But don’t assume you can spend your way to a power conference championship in one cycle,” one coach anonymously told Athlon Sports. “Don’t get me wrong — all of us would rather have an NIL collective that’s throwing a ton of cash instead of the alternative, but there’s a lot of questions here.”

And there is a pretty big thing that this coach brings up in that quote there. That whole thing about “one cycle.” It’s worth pointing out just how quickly some rebuilding projects are happening these days. Like the Arizona State Sun Devils going from the bottom of the Pac-12 to, with some portal work and some changes on the coaching staff, thriving in the Big 12. 

Will we see similar sorts of elevation from the Red Raiders this fall? I don’t know. Will this be something that takes another year or two? Maybe? But with as volatile as this conference can be and with the way the Red Raiders were looking pretty good in conference play last year, maybe we see things actually work out in Texas Tech’s favor.

Also, is that sort of success sustainable? Will Texas Tech continue to spend in a way that brings that sort of recruiting boost to Lubbock on an annual basis? We’re really still pretty early in this current era of college football and the sample sizes are still pretty small, all things considered.

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It’s good to have a purpose in life. Conference USA’s purpose is to serve as the official FBS welcome mat.

With the additions of Delaware and Missouri State, there are now 136 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision. CUSA has at one point or another housed nearly a quarter of them. Of the 10 programs to move up from FCS since 2014, eight joined CUSA upon their arrival. Conference realignment hasn’t been incredibly kind to this league of late, with three schools leaving for the AAC in 2014, three going to the Sun Belt in 2022 and six heading for the AAC in 2023. (UTEP departs for the Mountain West next year.) But serving as the Ellis Island of FBS assures the conference of both an identity and, well, quantity.

Two of these relative FBS newcomers have won the league the past two years — Liberty (first FBS year: 2018) took the title and a Fiesta Bowl bid two years ago, and in 2024 Jacksonville State did the deed in just its second year aboard. Sam Houston, another second-year program, went an impressive 10-3.

On paper, Liberty appears pretty likely to take the mantle back in 2025, but no one saw JSU coming a year ago. Might we have another surprise in store? Let’s preview Conference USA!

Through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another FBS conference, ultimately including all 136 FBS teams. The previews will include 2024 breakdowns, 2025 previews and team-by-team capsules.

2024 recap

On paper, Liberty graded out slightly ahead of the pack in SP+ last year. The Flames still had quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley (plus three all-conference offensive linemen) and scored at least 31 points seven times. But random duds — a 27-24 loss to Kennesaw State and its No. 134 defense, a 20-18 loss to Sam Houston — rendered the Flames also-rans in the CUSA race, and Rich Rodriguez’s Jacksonville State took full advantage. The Gamecocks lost to Western Kentucky in the last week of the regular season but administered a 52-12 thumping of the Hilltoppers a week later to take the title.

Sam Houston, meanwhile, also took a lovely step forward, albeit one tinged with good fortune. Both JSU and SHSU then lost their head coaches and prepared to start all over again.

Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2024 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2025. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very hard to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

TEAMRET PROD (RK)OFF/DEF RETSTARTS RETSTARTS INCRSFRKennesaw St.74% (5)67% / 82%1423311Delaware65% (19)54% / 77%0*216Missouri St.60% (44)71% / 50%0*18Middle Tennessee60% (46)59% / 60%137411Liberty59% (51)59% / 59%1343114UTEP52% (73)65% / 40%109515New Mexico St.48% (91)56% / 39%90173La. Tech46% (99)49% / 43%11309FIU41% (114)46% / 35%67189Sam Houston39% (116)56% / 23%80364Western Kentucky36% (123)38% / 35%506811Jacksonville St.28% (135)24% / 32%512919(* For consistency’s sake, I attempted to record only FBS starts in the “returning/incoming starts” columns, so FBS newcomers Delaware and Missouri State return none of those. But their returning production numbers show that both return solid bases of experience.)This conference runs the gamut in the continuity department. Kennesaw State replaced coach Brian Bohannon with Jerry Mack after its first FBS season, and Mack managed to keep a solid amount of the Owls’ two-deep intact while importing a healthy amount of experience from the transfer portal. Meanwhile, of 136 FBS teams, Jacksonville State returns the second-lowest amount of production, and WKU and Sam Houston failed to hit the 40% mark in this regard. These were the top three teams in last year’s standings. That gives you a pretty good idea why Liberty seems poised to rebound.2025 projectionsTEAMSP+OFF.DEF.STAVG. WSOS RK69. Liberty-1.127.4 (62)28.5 (69)-0.2 (105)9.213685. W. Kentucky-5.822.4 (102)28.2 (68)0.6 (2)7.7101104. Jax St.-10.422.0 (105)32.4 (99)-0.4 (134)6.5135107. Sam Houston-11.119.7 (118)30.8 (91)-0.2 (129)5.286109. La. Tech-11.917.8 (126)29.7 (80)-0.1 (98)5.8100110. Delaware-13.020.4 (113)33.5 (105)-0.2 (115)5.4127125. Middle Tenn.-16.417.5 (130)33.9 (109)-0.1 (90)5.3134122. New Mexico St.-16.021.8 (106)37.8 (124)0.2 (34)5.493123. UTEP-16.119.0 (122)35.1 (113)-0.2 (130)4.895127. Missouri St.-17.626.3 (76)43.8 (136)-0.2 (115)4.0102129. FIU-18.018.0 (124)36.0 (118)-0.1 (99)4.779131. Kennesaw St.-18.912.3 (136)31.1 (93)0.0 (73)4.2114Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State and Sam Houston remain in CUSA’s projected top four, but the projected win totals are pretty telling. From No. 107 Sam Houston to No. 123 UTEP, six teams are projected to win between 4.8 and 5.8 games; whoever wins their close games within this batch will enjoy a pretty nice season.TEAMCONF. WTITLE %11+ WINS %6+ WINS %Liberty6.427.8%17.0%99.5%W. Kentucky5.617.6%1.4%93.3%Jax St.4.511.3%0.3%73.4%Sam Houston4.29.0%0.0%42.3%La. Tech4.19.2%0.1%58.2%Delaware3.80.0%0.0%47.5%New Mexico St.3.45.5%0.0%46.3%UTEP3.35.7%0.0%31.9%Middle Tenn.3.55.6%0.0%43.1%Missouri St.3.20.0%0.0%16.0%FIU2.94.3%0.0%27.8%Kennesaw St.3.04.1%0.0%19.0%Liberty and WKU are CUSA’s most proven entities at the moment — Liberty has won at least eight games for six straight seasons (average SP+ ranking in this span: 61.4), while WKU has reached four CUSA championship games, winning two, since joining the league in 2014. Between them, the Flames and Hilltoppers start out with a nearly 50% chance of winning the conference. But every other eligible team has at least a 4% chance, and last year’s champ, Jax State, started out at just 7%. We’re not too far away from a chaotic race.Five best games of 2025Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under 10 points.Aug. 23: Sam Houston at Western Kentucky. Week 0’s headline game is Kansas State vs. Iowa State in Dublin; the winner of that one will immediately become one of the Big 12’s favorites. But back in the States, this game will have a similar impact. The winner will move to the top of the CUSA challengers list.Sept. 6: Liberty at Jacksonville State. CUSA isn’t messing around! We’ll get another big game in Week 2, with the 2024 champs hosting the 2023 champs. JSU is admittedly a mystery this year, but an early home win would help to prevent a Liberty coronation run.Oct. 21: Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech/Nov. 22: Liberty at Louisiana Tech. Louisiana Tech has struggled to generate momentum under Sonny Cumbie, winning just 11 games in three seasons. But the Bulldogs have an interesting opportunity this year thanks to a schedule featuring home games against contenders WKU, SHSU and Liberty. Cumbie handed his offense to freshmen and sophomores last year, and if development produces a breakthrough — and decent home crowds: Tech averaged 20,439 in home attendance in 2019 but hasn’t topped 16,000 since — a Bulldog rise isn’t out of the question.Nov. 29: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State. Last year, we headed into the final week of the regular season with two huge, pivotal games — JSU at WKU and Liberty at SHSU — deciding who would play in the CUSA championship. If things are similarly undecided in 2025, this game could end up rather pivotal.Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders Liberty Flames

Head coach: Jamey Chadwell (third year, 21-5 overall)

2025 projection: 69th in SP+ (62nd offense, 69th defense), 9.3 average wins, 6.4 conference wins

Last year, coming off a triumphant 13-1 season, Jamey Chadwell’s Flames returned their star quarterback (Kaidon Salter), their 1,400-yard rusher (Quinton Cooley) and six defensive starters. They were projected 41st in SP+. They finished 30 spots lower.

Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell’s history of producing explosive offenses could be tested this season. David Jensen/Getty ImagesWithout star receiver (and LSU transfer) CJ Daniels, the big plays disappeared — Salter went from averaging 16.3 yards per completion to 12.8 — and while Cooley and the run game were still excellent, passing downs were suddenly a problem. The defense played about the same, but the offense fell from 3.1 points per drive (sixth nationally) to 2.4 (49th), and Liberty averaged just 17.5 points per game in four losses.

Chadwell’s offensive track record remains strong, and in his past five seasons at Coastal Carolina and Liberty, he’s a combined 50-12. But last year’s No. 60 offensive SP+ ranking was the worst for a Chadwell team since 2019; he and offensive coordinator Willy Korn have questions to answer in that regard.

Ethan Vasko, who originally signed with Chadwell at Coastal Carolina, transfers in to likely start at quarterback; he’ll set up behind a line that returns three starters (including center Aaron Fenimore, who earned all-conference honors as a freshman) and adds Florida State guard transfer Christian Williams. The receiving corps adds Colorado State possession man Jamari Person and returns a pair of potential big-play guys in Elijah Canion and Reese Smith. Though the RB corps is terribly unproven after losing Cooley and backup Billy Lucas, (A) Chadwell offenses always move the ball on the ground, and (B) returnees Vaughn Blue and Julian Gray averaged 6.0 yards per carry between them in a limited sample, and incoming freshman Jaylon Coleman is a four-star prospect.

The defense needed to pick up slack last year with the offense less consistent, and it didn’t really do so. The Flames defended the run pretty well, but their blitzes didn’t get home, and they got burned for quite a few big pass plays. It’s hard to say the pass rush will improve without sacks leader TJ Bush Jr., who transferred to Cal this spring, but the addition of edge transfers Aaron Hester (Florida State) and Derrell Farrar (Appalachian State) could help, and the LU defense overall could benefit significantly from pure experience. Sophomores such as end Brenton Williams, linebacker Ethan Crisp and corner Jamal Miles could enjoy star turns, but Liberty also could start a full 11-man lineup of juniors and seniors, including proven entities such as end (and ace run-stopper) CJ Bazile Jr. and safety A’Khori Jones.

In terms of both experience and upside, this is the most proven roster in Conference USA. But we said the same thing last year. The Flames bear a bit more burden of proof this time around.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Head coach: Tyson Helton (seventh year, 48-32 overall)

2025 projection: 85th in SP+ (102nd offense, 68th defense), 7.7 average wins, 5.6 conference wins

Tyson Helton and WKU have won eight or nine games for four straight seasons with a stellar average SP+ ranking of 66.5. After making one of the best coordinator hires of the 2020s — Zach Kittley came to town in 2021, and WKU surged from 120th to seventh in offensive SP+ — Helton has seen his offense get a little shakier each year, but his defense has slowly picked up the slack. Despite quite a few coordinator changes and an average of 18 transfers per year in and 21 transfers out over the past four seasons, WKU somehow has managed to put out the same results.

If the results don’t change this year, they never will. Helton is dealing with his most upheaval yet. He’ll be breaking in his fourth offensive coordinator in five years (Rick Bowie) and his first new defensive coordinator in four years (co-coordinators, actually: Da’Von Brown and Davis Merritt). Meanwhile, according to the numbers at 247 Sports, 37 players have transferred out while 43 have transferred in. That’s half a roster! Only two starters remain from last year’s lineup — two! — but Helton brought in four starters from other FBS defenses, and the offense will boast prolific and explosive players in quarterback Maverick McIvor (3,828 yards at Abilene Christian last year) and receivers Jairus Mack (22.0 yards per catch at Charlotte), Isaiah Myers (18.2 YPC at Charlotte) and Matthew Henry (18.9 YPC at Western Illinois).

With Bowie, Helton is basically calling back to 2021, when Kittley came from Houston Christian and brought a number of HCU stars with him, including quarterback Bailey Zappe, who proceeded to throw for 5,967 yards and 62 TDs. Bowie was Abilene Christian’s (and McIvor’s) offensive coordinator last year as the Wildcats nearly beat Texas Tech — McIvor threw for 506 yards and three TDs in a 52-51 loss — and reached the FCS playoffs for the first time. Relying almost entirely on newcomers is a pretty scary prospect, but the potential is obvious. In addition to the receivers above, McIvor will also have Kody Epps (BYU), Kelby Williams (Old Dominion) and high-potential holdovers K.D. Hutchinson and Cameron Flowers running routes. Tackle Marshall Jackson, the lone returning starter, is good, and Helton signed eight transfers and five juco players to flesh out the two-deep up front. The RB corps is unproven, but I don’t get the impression WKU will run much.

The defense is equally new and potentially less proven. Of the batch of 16 incoming transfers (plus three juco players), the most intriguing newcomers are probably rush end Dominic Oliver (San Diego State), 315-pound defensive tackle Rylen Su’a-Filo (Southern Utah) and sophomore corner Braxton Myers (Southern Miss), but the overall statistical résumé of the new defenders isn’t quite as strong.

A couple of breaks away from a run

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Head coach: Charles Kelly (first year)

2025 projection: 104th in SP+ (105th offense, 99th defense), 6.6 average wins, 4.5 conference wins

Continuity hires aren’t guaranteed to work. When Michigan replaced Jim Harbaugh with former lieutenant Sherrone Moore in 2024, it didn’t stop the Wolverines’ win total from getting cut in half. And just because Ohio promoted offensive coordinator Brian Smith after winning 31 games in three years and losing head coach Tim Albin, that doesn’t mean the Bobcats won’t fall off course. Every new hire is an opportunity to charge forward or fall apart, regardless of how well the new guy knows the last guy.

I’m still struggling a bit with the change at Jacksonville State, however. With an ever-delightful, run-centric offense, Rich Rodriguez led the Gamecocks to immediate FBS success, going 18-9 over JSU’s first two seasons before returning to West Virginia. Offensive coordinator Rod Smith served as JSU’s interim head coach against Ohio in the Cure Bowl, but instead of handing the reins to Smith or a similarly offense-minded coach, JSU replaced Rodriguez with defensive veteran Charles Kelly.

The 57-year-old Kelly is an Alabama guy who served, delightfully, as both JSU offensive coordinator (1996) and defensive coordinator (1997-98) early in his career. He has coached for Jimbo Fisher, Nick Saban, Deion Sanders and Hugh Freeze in the last decade alone. And after hiring balance-minded offensive coordinator Clint Trickett and having to replace basically 18 starters, he’s going to lead a completely different JSU team onto the field this fall, for better or (more likely, in my estimation) worse.

Kelly has brought some well-traveled former blue-chippers with him: quarterback Gavin Wimsatt (Rutgers/Kentucky), running back Cam Cook (TCU), defensive tackle Khurtiss Perry (Alabama/Virginia Tech), nickel back Tre’Quon Fegans (Alabama/USC/UCF). He didn’t do a ton of portal work in the trenches — which made sense on defense (four of last year’s top six linemen return) but less so on offense (six of last year’s top seven are gone) — but he brought in quite a few wideouts and DBs.

JSU’s history of success stretches far beyond Rich Rod: The Gamecocks won a Division II title in the 1990s and reached the FCS title game in the 2010s. With proper program support, Kelly might be able to win big too. But in the short term, at least, I’m not nearly as optimistic as SP+.

Sam Houston Bearkats

Head coach: Phil Longo (first year)

2025 projection: 107th in SP+ (118th offense, 91st defense), 5.2 average wins, 4.2 conference wins

I recently looked at good and bad luck for 2024, from three different angles: turnovers, close games and injuries/lineup consistency. One team was among the 15 most fortunate in all three categories: KC Keeler’s Sam Houston. The Bearkats did plenty right in charging from 3-9 to 10-3 — the offense limited mistakes and negative plays, and the defense defended the pass beautifully — but happy turnover and injury luck, combined with a 6-0 record in one-score games, is almost impossible to replicate.

With Keeler off to Temple, new head coach Phil Longo takes over a program that is a) likely to see fewer happy breaks, b) replacing every single defensive starter and c) playing its home games in Houston, 70 miles away from Huntsville, while Bowers Stadium undergoes renovations. This seems … suboptimal. After a mostly woebegone stint as Wisconsin’s offensive coordinator, Longo might generate quick offensive success at SHSU — quarterback Hunter Watson is back, as are three starting linemen and Watson’s two most explosive receivers (Qua’Vez Humphreys and Michael Phoenix II), and Longo brought two Wisconsin QB signings with him just in case. Plus, in transfers Shane Porter (North Texas) and Elijah Green (Indiana), he welcomes two RBs who averaged 6.7 yards per carry between them. Throw in Long Island receiver transfer Aviyon Smith-Mack (18.0 yards per catch), and you can talk yourself into the offense.

The defense, however, is completely starting over. Even including three transfers, only four Bearkat defenders saw more than 110 FBS snaps last season. I’m intrigued by smaller-school transfers linebacker JaMair Diaz (21 TFLs and 12 sacks at Glenville State) and defensive end Keelan Cox (six sacks at Texas Southern), but it’s hard to believe new defensive coordinator Freddie Aughtry-Lindsay will have the depth he needs, particularly up front.

Even with a poor Wisconsin run, the Longo hire made some sense — he has plenty of offensive success on his résumé, and you can almost certainly find what you need to run a high-tempo, free-flowing offense in Texas. But even though the projections are at least semi-optimistic, this feels like a massive Year Zero situation for Longo and SHSU.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Head coach: Sonny Cumbie (fourth year, 11-26 overall)

2025 projection: 109th in SP+ (126th offense, 80th defense), 6.0 average wins, 4.1 conference wins

Between the lovely home schedule and offensive experience mentioned above and my aforementioned skepticism of both Jax State and SHSU, I think Louisiana Tech has an opportunity to do something interesting this season. It’s been a little while. Three years under Sonny Cumbie haven’t borne fruit, and Tech hasn’t won more than five games in a season since 2019.

Development will be key. In 2024, Tech was led in passing by a redshirt freshman (Evan Bullock) and in rushing by a sophomore JUCO transfer (Omiri Wiggins); the two most explosive pass catchers were sophomores (Jay Wilkerson and tight end Eli Finley), and the most snaps on the offensive line went to another redshirt freshman (tackle Hayden Christman). There were veterans too — senior slot man Tru Edwards caught 85 passes, senior guard Bert Hale earned honorable mention all-CUSA — but the Bulldogs’ offense was awfully unseasoned.

That Bullock completed 66% of his passes with a 14-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio was encouraging, even if there were a lot of nibbling, short passes involved. But the return of these experienced players, plus the addition of one of the best RBs in NAIA (Keiser’s 6-foot-2, 225-pound Andrew Burnette), has me intrigued. So does the return of Tony Franklin. An early Air Raid adopter, the 67-year-old is back for his second stint as Tech’s OC, and he returns to full-sized football after a brief but dominant stint as Army’s sprint football OC. There’s a lot to replace on the offensive line, but it sure seems like Franklin might have some fun with Bullock and a fast skill corps.

Of course, I’d feel even better about Tech if Cumbie had held onto Jeremiah Johnson. The former Northern Iowa defensive coordinator worked wonders in improving the Bulldogs from 122nd to 67th in defensive SP+ last season, but he was lured away by Coastal Carolina. Cumbie replaced him with former Jax State DC Luke Olson, and Olson will have his work cut out for him: Of the 11 players who saw at least 200 snaps in the front six last season, eight are gone, including all six linemen. The secondary, led by safety Jacob Fields, should be sound, but a really strong run defense needs to start over.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Head coach: Derek Mason (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 125th in SP+ (130th offense, 109th defense), 5.3 average wins, 3.5 conference wins

In a word, Derek Mason’s first year succeeding Rick Stockstill at MTSU was horrendous. The Blue Raiders ranked 131st in SP+ (131st on offense, 122nd on defense) and only finished 3-9 because they won all three of their games that were decided by single digits. Their nine losses came by an average score of 41-17. The passing game was decent, the defense was sporadically able to bend without breaking, and lots of freshmen got experience, especially in the trenches. But Mason, the former Vanderbilt head coach, wasn’t able to come up with many answers, even if MTSU did operate pretty well in the rare tight game. (Vandy was decent in those situations under Mason, too.) Things felt mostly hopeless.

I’m admittedly not making this sound like a “couple of breaks away” team, am I? Well, that probably says something about how many particularly iffy teams CUSA seems to have this season. But it also says something about what MTSU returns. In a conference full of poor returning production numbers, the Blue Raiders rank a solid 46th nationally, and fourth in CUSA, behind only a team with a new head coach (Kennesaw State) and the two FBS newcomers. Mason brought back both coordinators — Bodie Reeder on offense, Brian Stewart on defense — and the Blue Raiders return a solid and experienced quarterback (Nicholas Vattiato), a pair of disruptive defensive tackles (Shakai Woods and Damonte Smith, who combined for 11.5 TFLs and 20 run stops), and a potential all-conference safety in John Howse IV. Mason also found some potential portal gems in running back Rickey Hunt Jr. (Ohio), receiver Amorion Walker (Michigan) and 6-foot-7 tackle Jacob Otts (Rhode Island).

Defensively, I honestly expected a few more transfers. Mason brought in three transfers and two JUCOs in the secondary but mostly let it ride with the front six. Maybe that will pay off if Woods and another promising sophomore, end Anthony Bynum, keep developing. But if a unit takes a bit step forward in 2025, I’m guessing it will be the offense. Regardless, MTSU has a level of continuity and experience that others in the CUSA don’t have; maybe that pays off.

New Mexico State Aggies

Head coach: Tony Sanchez (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 122nd in SP+ (106th offense, 124th defense), 5.4 average wins, 3.4 conference wins

Jerry Kill won 17 games in two seasons at NMSU (2022-23). In the 19 seasons before his arrival, the Aggies averaged 2.8 wins per year. In their first after his departure, they won three. In case someone forgot how hard a job this one can be, reality struck the moment Kill left.

Tyler Martinez is an anchor for the New Mexico State defense. Michael Wade/Icon SportswireWhile Kill was serving as chief consultant to the head coach at Vanderbilt in 2024 (and helping to create a sudden renaissance with quarterback Diego Pavia and other former Aggies), Tony Sanchez was attempting to plot a new way forward in Las Cruces. His 2024 Aggies still ran the ball pretty well, and the play-action game occasionally struck gold. But there was no consistency in the passing game, and an aggressive defense didn’t make enough big plays to counteract the ones it was allowing. The Aggies could engage in track meets at times — they scored 28 or more points in five games — but they still ranked just 120th in points per drive, and the defense was shaky enough that they won only two of those five prolific games.

While the run game was a strength, both leading rushers and six of last year’s top seven linemen are gone. The line still has solid size, and former blue-chip backs Kadarius Calloway (Cal) and Dijon Stanley (Utah) will join either incumbent quarterback Parker Awad or Montana transfer Logan Fife in the backfield. But new offensive coordinator David Yost, a spread offense old hand, usually likes to throw the ball a bit. PJ Johnson III is good at go routes, but we’ll see which of five pass-catching transfers emerges as interesting weapons.

Defensively, we’ll start with the good: Linebackers Tyler Martinez and Sone Aupiu (combined: 23 run stops) are rock solid playmakers, Dakerric Hobbs is one of the most aggressive (and often successful) cornerbacks in the conference, and with Sanchez signing seven JUCO defensive backs, including six safeties, it’s pretty likely that a couple will emerge as solid options. But when you rank 127th in defensive SP+, then lose eight starters, improvement isn’t exactly guaranteed. Sanchez stuck with coordinator Joe Morris, and I like the aggression, but odds are good that the Aggies will still get burned quite a bit.

Just looking for a path to 6-6

UTEP Miners

Head coach: Scotty Walden (second year, 3-9 overall)

2025 projection: 123rd in SP+ (122nd offense, 113th defense), 4.8 average wins, 3.3 conference wins

If Sam Houston was the most fortunate team in the conference in 2024, UTEP was the least. The Miners ranked 101st in turnovers luck, 105th in close-game fortune and 124th in lineup stability. Only three offensive or defensive players started all 12 games and, by my count, 44 started at least one. That is a number I wouldn’t have thought possible. That the team went 3-3 down the stretch might have been a slight sign of improvement, but it was a lost season from the start.

Of those 44 starters, 21 return in 2025, including explosive wideout Kenny Odom and disruptive defenders in tackle KD Johnson and outside linebacker Nate Dyman. But Scotty Walden was super-aggressive this offseason, bringing in two new coordinators — former TCU QBs coach Mark Cala on offense, former Montana State DC Bobby Daly on defense — and 30 transfers. Former USC and Boise State blue-chipper Malachi Nelson was the biggest name of the bunch, but a majority of the transfers were defenders. Among the more intriguing: defensive end Ashaad Hall (11 sacks at SC State) and safety Tyler Jones (four TFLs and 14 passes defended at Tennessee State). Daly’s first Miners defense will be aggressive and reasonably experienced.

Either Nelson or incumbent QB Skyler Locklear will have a decent pair of veteran receivers in Odom and slot man Kam Thomas, but the run game was abysmal last season, and that could make explosive former Charlotte RB Hahsaun Wilson (6.1 yards per carry in 2024) nearly as important as Nelson. The offensive line lost three starters but should still be big and pretty senior-heavy.

Kennesaw State Owls

Head coach: Jerry Mack (first year)

2025 projection: 131st in SP+ (136th offense, 93rd defense), 4.3 average wins, 3.0 conference wins

I hated that, after one tough season in FBS, Kennesaw State fired the only head coach in its history. Brian Bohannon had the Owls in the FCS playoffs by their third year in existence; it was easy to think he should get a first-year FBS mulligan.

I also loved the replacement hire. Jerry Mack was excellent at NC Central in the mid-2010s, and after a few years as Rice’s offensive coordinator and an RBs coach with Tennessee (2023) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (2024), he took over at KSU in December. He kept a solid portion of last year’s defense intact — 13 of the 17 players with at least 200 snaps return — and he also added a Big Ten starter (Purdue linebacker Antonio Stevens), formerly well-touted recruits like end Nasir Smith (Georgia Southern), nickel Kody Jones (Michigan), corner Caleb Offord (Notre Dame/Alabama State) and safety Isaiah Thomas (Miami), and exciting smaller-school transfers like end Elijah Harper (Emory & Henry) and tackle Mike Jones (Virginia Union). This should be a top-half-of-CUSA defense.

The offense, however, projects as the worst in the country. Longtime Josh Heupel assistant Mitch Militello takes the reins of a former option attack; starting quarterback Davis Bryson is now a receiver, and the most proven passer is either Georgia Southern transfer Dexter Williams II (248 yards last season) or Wofford transfer Amari Odom (1,565 in FCS). Meanwhile, no returning rusher topped 29 rushing yards last year, and no returning receiver topped 203 receiving yards. Seven offensive line transfers (including two FBS starters) could transform that unit, but it might take a year of experimentation for Militello to figure out what he has.

Florida International Panthers

Head coach: Willie Simmons (first year)

2025 projection: 129th in SP+ (124th offense, 118th defense), 4.5 average wins, 2.9 conference wins

In 21 FBS seasons, FIU has finished with a winning record four times and won either zero or one game five times. Its last two hires — former Miami head man Butch Davis and former San José State and Colorado coach and resurrection expert Mike MacIntyre — were both extremely logical, but after a brief run of success under Davis, the Golden Panthers have gone a combined 13-40 over the last five seasons. This one ranks pretty high on the hard jobs list.

MacIntyre’s last team both threw the ball and defended the pass pretty well, and FIU improved from 128th to 112th in SP+, but a 1-5 record in one-score finishes resulted in MacIntyre’s firing. One could suggest this was rash, but as with Kennesaw State, the replacement hire was intriguing. A Tallahassee native, Willie Simmons was excellent as head coach at both Prairie View A&M and Florida A&M. His first portal haul included a number of former power-conference prospects, including running back Anthony Carrie (Georgia Tech), receiver JoJo Stone (Louisville), guard Antonio Tripp Jr. (Miami), and defensive ends Dante Anderson and Lamont Green Jr. (both from Florida State).

It doesn’t feel like there are nearly enough pieces, though. Undersized defensive tackle Jamarrion Solomon and corner Brian Blades II are decent veteran building blocks on defense, but they’re also the only two returning defenders who started more than five games. Meanwhile, quarterback Keyone Jenkins (2,557 yards, 22 TDs) returns, but he lost his two best receivers to the portal, and the offensive two-deep will likely be loaded with sophomores. I really like the Simmons hire, but there are probably no quick fixes here.

Welcome to the party

Delaware Blue Hens

Head coach: Ryan Carty (fourth year, 26-11 overall)

2025 projection: 110th in SP+ (113th offense, 105th defense), 5.5 average wins, 3.8 conference wins

And now, the newbies. Neither Delaware nor Missouri State is eligible for the CUSA title game (and would only be bowl eligible with six-plus wins if there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams elsewhere), but both could be pretty decent out of the FBS gate.

That’s especially true for Delaware. Though ineligible for the FCS playoffs last season, the Blue Hens went 9-2 and ranked fifth in FCS SP+, equivalent to about 100th (between Sam Houston and Louisiana Tech) in FBS. They were good despite three quarterbacks logging major minutes — two of them, senior Zach Marker and junior Nick Minicucci, return — and despite quite a few then-sophomores playing major roles. The offense’s two best playmakers (RB Marcus Yarns and WR Phil Lutz) are gone, but RB Jo’Nathan Silver is proven, and six returnees (including Silver) caught double-digit passes. The line, led by left tackle Anwar O’neal and left guard Patrick Shupp, certainly passes the FBS size test.

The defense was as good as the offense last season and returns 17 of the 22 players with double-digit tackles, though star end Melkart Abou-Jaoude transferred to North Carolina. Size up front might be an issue — tackle Dominick Brogna is the only player who was listed at more than 280 pounds last season — but the secondary is big and physical, and safety KT Seay should immediately be one of the best in the conference.

Ryan Carty was KC Keeler’s offensive coordinator when Sam Houston won the FCS national title in spring 2021, and he immediately reestablished Delaware as a top-15ish FCS program when he took over in 2022. He’s letting it ride in 2025, having brought in only a few transfers (most of them redshirt freshmen or sophomores), and his first FBS team is a projected favorite in five games and only a slight underdog in four others. I’d be surprised if this weren’t a pretty fun and competitive season for the Hens.

Missouri State Bears

Head coach: Ryan Beard (third year, 12-11 overall)

2025 projection: 127th in SP+ (76th offense, 136th defense), 4.0 average wins, 3.2 conference wins

Missouri State wasn’t quite as good as Delaware in 2024 (18th in FCS SP+) and doesn’t return quite as much of last year’s production — the Bears must replace a large portion of their skill corps and about half of their defensive regulars. But you could understand if MSU isn’t feeling all that intimidated by the move up to FBS. Conference USA might be better than the Missouri Valley on average, but the Bears are certainly used to playing against FCS super-programs like North Dakota State and South Dakota State, which are annually as good as the best CUSA teams. Strong competition levels don’t automatically make you a strong team, but MSU is pretty battle-tested for a newbie.

If the Bears enjoy first-year success, it will likely be because of the offense: It ranked fifth in offensive SP+ in FCS last season, and 6-foot-5 quarterback Jacob Clark (3,604 yards, 26 TDs) is immediately one of the more proven QBs in Conference USA. He’ll be without five of the seven players who caught at least 20 passes last year, but the wonderfully named returning duo of Jmariyae Robinson and James BlackStrain combined for 62 catches and 953 yards. Ryan Beard was concerned enough about the offensive line to add four transfers, but size won’t be an issue, at least. (Overall, Beard was more active in the portal than Carty, though he, too, brought in more youngsters than instant-impact guys.)

Size should also hold up on defense, where coordinator L.D. Scott will have a line anchored by Gilles Tchio (310 pounds) and Sterling Smithson (325). Maybe that drives solid run defense, but MSU is replacing last year’s top two pass rushers and top three cornerbacks. That’s an obvious concern.

The projections aren’t as optimistic for MSU — the Bears are favorites in only two games. But five other games are projected within 4 points, so it wouldn’t take much overachievement to build a solid first-year win total.