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Nike's Brand is Strong, But Pressures Are Mounting

Introduction Few would dispute that Nike (NYSE:NKE) remains one of the most iconic brands in athletic fashion, with a track record of defining culture, bringing impressive levels of innovation, and delivering at scale globally. However, 2025 is proving to be a challenging year for many of the world’s largest retailers, with mounting pressures from geopolitical […]

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Nike's Brand is Strong, But Pressures Are Mounting

Introduction

Few would dispute that Nike (NYSE:NKE) remains one of the most iconic brands in athletic fashion, with a track record of defining culture, bringing impressive levels of innovation, and delivering at scale globally. However, 2025 is proving to be a challenging year for many of the world’s largest retailers, with mounting pressures from geopolitical tensions, rising threats to supply chains, and uncertain trading conditions. I see shares in the company trading close to fair value, so while Nike is likely going nowhere any time soon, the catalysts that have made it investible over the last few decades are not really working for now.

Company Overview

One of the most instantly recognisable brands in the world, Nike has been designing, marketing and selling athletic footwear, clothing, and equipment since 1964. It generally operates across direct to consumer sales channels, delivering just over $50 billion in revenue in FY24. Net margins during this period were a solid 9%, well above the median average of peers at 5%. However, there will be concerns that this growth appears to be faltering, with the share price down over 35% in a year, forward revenues expected to drop by 4%, and EPS sliding 16%. Following the events of the pandemic, a shift towards direct to consumer business was meant to deliver premium margins and a closer relationship with customers. Although there were signs in previous quarters that this was developing, the wider economic landscape globally has taken a significant toll on the balance sheet. Rising costs in logistics, weakening demand, and discounting from competitors have all hit margins more than management would have liked to see.

With so much of the company’s logistics network in China, Vietnam and Indonesia, the recent tariff tensions have put enormous stress on the profitability analysts are expecting over the coming years, with some suggesting that as much as [url=”]95[/url]% of profits could be at risk in the worst case scenario.

Of course, Nike is not the only company dealing with this landscape, but with newer brands amassing loyal followings from social media and more dynamic brand campaigns, firms such as Lululemon are seeing surges in key markets, such as women-led athleisure. Nike is clearly making moves to correct this, with a partnership with [url=”]Skims[/url] likely to roll out in 2026, but it suggests that the firm is perhaps on the backfoot with these emerging trends.

The Bull/Bear Balance

That said, there is enormous strength in the Nike brand, with a track record of cash-generation, innovative campaigns, and huge deals with athletes such as LeBron James and Kylian Mbappe. From an investor perspective, the 2.7% dividend yield adds a decent level of appeal alongside a strong balance sheet, especially in a period of market transition where some of these newcomers appear to be losing share even faster than some of the more established players.

From my perspective, the real weakness comes from relatively weak momentum and a rather expensive valuation. With a forward P/E sitting at about 31x, EV/EBITDA at 16x and P/S at about 2x, the company’s key metrics are at a decent premium despite not necessarily having the growth to justify them. Following the latest Q4 earnings report, which indicated that inventory clearance is underway, many analysts have slashed expectations, with management forecasting revenue decline of between 8-10%.

Digging into the valuation, I’ve developed a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on the following inputs:

  • Terminal growth: 2.5% based on industry,
  • WACC: 8% based on industry and peers,
  • Revenue CAGR 5Y: 2%,
  • EBIT Margin: approx. 11%.

With these assumptions applied, a fair value of shares comes to about $52 per share. This can be closer to $62 in a more optimistic scenario where top line growth exceeds 5%, and with 13-14% margins, but even in this case, I’d not expect to see much more than 10% returns for investors in the near-term.

Looking across the market to peers with slightly more appealing valuations, such as Adidas with P/E of 15x, I feel that it is hard to get excited about this premium as a new investor.

Analyst Perspectives

Of course, there are plenty of reasons to justify both perspectives, and the divided ratings from Wall Street reflect this well. With 63% of analysts now appearing to be behind Buy or Strong Buy ratings, and 35% holding neutral ratings, I appear to be in the relative minority on the bearish side of the spectrum.

Recent upgrades in the Nike coverage from analysts match this, with about 23 upward revisions for EPS guidance, and just 4 downgrades, suggesting that cost control and potential products reflect opportunities looking ahead. That said, top-line expectations for revenue forecasts have been much more negative.

From my perspective, I have my eye on the next earnings report on June 27th. Investors will be keen to understand the latest inventory levels and strategy for approaching markdowns going forward, but mostly will look to the trend in gross margins.

I’d also want to see some more promising performance, particularly in the critical Chinese market, and hear some progress towards new innovations which will keep investors on-side. Investors will likely want to hear exactly where margin targets are landing for management, and the response being taken to fierce competition across multiple sectors.

Closing Thoughts

By no means is the investor thesis for Nike broken, but I fear that it is nowhere near as strong as the valuation may justify. It is still an elite brand across multiple markets, with strong profitability and operational discipline during a volatile period.

However, I feel that it is far from an automatic pick for investors at present, with growth looking uncertain, and a valuation which leaves little room for error. Investors may be rewarded for patience at this stage, especially if innovation and cost control works out in a negative market backdrop, but I suspect there may be safer opportunities elsewhere. Until management are able to present tangible evidence that revenue is accelerating, and that the brand is moving ahead of leaner competitors, I’ll be keeping my distance.

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Big Ten and Big 12 in public dispute over future of College Football Playoff

At the Big 12 media days, commissioner Brett Yormark was very upfront about what the College Football Playoff expansion should look like. He continues to beat the drum of five automatic qualifiers with eleven at-large bids chosen by the College Football Playoff committee. He fired back at Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, who is pushing […]

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At the Big 12 media days, commissioner Brett Yormark was very upfront about what the College Football Playoff expansion should look like. He continues to beat the drum of five automatic qualifiers with eleven at-large bids chosen by the College Football Playoff committee. He fired back at Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti, who is pushing for more automatic qualifiers, with four each going to the Big Ten and the SEC, and only two each for the Big 12 and ACC, and a small amount of at-large.

Tony Petitti and Brett Yormark aren’t hiding their disagreement over the CFP’s expansion

Petitti joined CBS Sports’ Joel Klatt a few weeks ago to talk about the College Football Playoff expansion and how a decision needs to be made by December 1. He believes the Big Ten and the SEC are due more bids than other conferences, and he doubts that increasing the committee’s at-large choices will make a difference.

““If you go to 16, and you have 11 at-large, you just added even more decision-making…We’ll stipulate the committee does the best job they can. This is not to say the (committee) doesn’t do a good job…They make incredibly difficult decisions based on data…When you start comparing teams that don’t have a head to head and you have very little data to look at between leagues, that becomes really difficult.””

Tony Petitti, Big Ten Commissioner

Brett Yormark thinks that’s a terrible idea and was very clear to voice his disdain over it during the Big 12 media days. He called it a professional model like the NFL and thinks college football should act like college football. There’s a reason it’s different in his mind, and that conferences should be working for the good of all of football, not just their own conference. Which ironically is what Yormark is being accused of by advocating for the 5+11 model.

““We have the responsibility to do what’s right for college football … not what’s right for one or two or more conferences. I think 5-11 is fair. Earn it on the field, assuming we want to expand. I love the current format, but if we’re going to expand, let’s do it in a way that’s fair and equitable and gives everyone a chance.””

Brett Yormark, Big 12 Commissioner

The Big Ten and the SEC have yet to have their media days, and so there will be more expansion thoughts publicly broadcast as the dispute has come out in the open. It’s hard to know how it will all shake out, but the December 1 deadline is looming.





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Adam Hill

LAS VEGAS — There is a four-word sentence that would have been difficult to ever imagine typing even just a few days ago. Mike Gundy is right. × This page requires Javascript. Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings. 0

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Adam Hill

LAS VEGAS — There is a four-word sentence that would have been difficult to ever imagine typing even just a few days ago.

Mike Gundy is right.

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Javascript is required for you to be able to read premium content. Please enable it in your browser settings.

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Stalions’ Wild Rant, Finebaum’s Texas Prediction, and SCORE Act Impact on NIL

Connor Stalions, a former Michigan football analyst, sparked controversy with a wild response to TCU coach Sonny Dykes’ comments about Michigan’s sign-stealing methods during the 2022 College Football Playoff. Stalions claimed he was never fooled by opponents and criticized the performance of Michigan players in that game. The outburst came as Michigan faces potential NCAA […]

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Connor Stalions, a former Michigan football analyst, sparked controversy with a wild response to TCU coach Sonny Dykes’ comments about Michigan’s sign-stealing methods during the 2022 College Football Playoff. Stalions claimed he was never fooled by opponents and criticized the performance of Michigan players in that game. The outburst came as Michigan faces potential NCAA repercussions, with a ruling expected in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, a new Texas vs. Ohio State matchup has the college football world buzzing, especially after analyst Paul Finebaum confidently predicts a Longhorns victory. Additionally, the SCORE Act introduced in Congress could reshape NIL regulations for college athletes.

By the Numbers

  • Stalions admitted to knowing “almost every signal” against seven high-profile opponents between 2021 and 2022.
  • Brice Sensabaugh scored 37 points in the NBA’s Salt Lake City Summer League, setting a new record.

Yes, But

While Stalions’ comments stirred controversy, they also highlight the ongoing debate over competitive integrity in college sports. Critics may view his outburst as an attempt to deflect blame from Michigan’s performance, raising questions about accountability.

State of Play

  • The NCAA investigation into Michigan’s sign-stealing practices is ongoing, with a ruling expected within 30 to 90 days.
  • Ohio State’s football season opener against Texas is set for August 30, with both teams highly anticipated in the upcoming college season.

What’s Next

The NCAA’s impending decision could significantly impact Michigan’s season and coaching staff, while the new NCAA landscape may reshape NIL deals for athletes across the country. As the college football schedule approaches, the Texas vs. Ohio State game is positioned to draw significant attention.

Bottom Line

The unfolding drama around Connor Stalions and the NCAA investigation reflects broader issues in college sports, emphasizing the need for transparency and accountability in athletic programs. With looming regulatory changes, the landscape of college athletics is poised for significant transformation.





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Highest-rated Class of 2026 football recruits from Iowa |

Highest-rated Class of 2026 football recruits from Iowa The recruiting race for the Class of 2026 is already heating up — not just on the field, but in the increasingly complex ecosystem of modern college football, where NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals are reshaping how programs and players navigate early recruitment. For elite underclassmen, […]

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Highest-rated Class of 2026 football recruits from Iowa

The recruiting race for the Class of 2026 is already heating up — not just on the field, but in the increasingly complex ecosystem of modern college football, where NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals are reshaping how programs and players navigate early recruitment. For elite underclassmen, talent alone is no longer the only factor drawing attention; marketability, social media presence, and brand potential are now playing pivotal roles in how offers are extended and decisions are made. The top recruits in the 2026 cycle are not only physically advanced and highly skilled — they’re entering high school with endorsement potential and media savviness.

Stacker compiled a list of the highest rated Class of 2026 football recruits from Iowa using data from 247Sports. Here’s the players from Iowa set to dominate Saturdays (and potentially Sundays) for years to come.

WoodysPhotos // Shutterstock

#9. Colin Whitters (IOL)

– National rank: #771 (3 stars)

– Position rank: #68

– College: Iowa

– Offers: Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State

– High school: West Senior (Iowa City, IA)

David Lee // Shutterstock

#8. Draeden Punt (DL)

– National rank: #718 (3 stars)

– Position rank: #82

– College: Kansas

– Offers: Kansas, Kansas State, South Dakota

– High school: MOC-Floyd Valley (Orange City, IA)

Ron Alvey // Shutterstock

#7. Dreshaun Ross (ATH)

– National rank: #647 (3 stars)

– Position rank: #42

– College: not committed

– Offers: Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Michigan, Minnesota

– High school: Fort Dodge (Fort Dodge, IA)

zoff // Shutterstock

#6. Jeffrey Roberts (WR)

– National rank: #529 (3 stars)

– Position rank: #86

– College: Iowa State

– Offers: Iowa State, Kansas State

– High school: Ames (Ames, IA)

kuzmaphoto // Shutterstock

#5. Kasen Thomas (LB)

– National rank: #484 (3 stars)

– Position rank: #34

– College: not committed

– Offers: Iowa, Iowa State, Arizona, Kansas State, Michigan State

– High school: Bishop Heelan Catholic (Sioux City, IA)

Guzel Studio // Shutterstock

#4. Jayden McGregory (ATH)

– National rank: #396 (4 stars)

– Position rank: #26

– College: not committed

– Offers: Louisville, Kansas, Missouri, Minnesota, Georgia

– High school: Valley (Des Moines, IA)

Bobby Stevens Photo // Shutterstock

#3. Evan Jacobson (TE)

– National rank: #271 (4 stars)

– Position rank: #15

– College: not committed

– Offers: Notre Dame, Florida State, Auburn, Texas A&M, Stanford

– High school: Waukee (Waukee, IA)

Fabricio Barili // Shutterstock

#2. Carson Nielsen (OT)

– National rank: #268 (4 stars)

– Position rank: #23

– College: Iowa

– Offers: Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas State, Minnesota, Missouri

– High school: West (Waterloo, IA)

SEALANDSKYPHOTO // Shutterstock

#1. Julian Manson (ATH)

– National rank: #261 (4 stars)

– Position rank: #15

– College: not committed

– Offers: Iowa, Minnesota, Arizona, Kansas State, Kent State

– High school: West Senior (Iowa City, IA)



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Le’Veon Moss arrest: Mike Elko releases statement on Texas A&M RB

Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss was arrested early this morning for disorderly conduct. Mike Elko has now since addressed the incident regarding his team’s leading rusher last fall. Elko has shared a statement about Moss this afternoon. It was a straightforward one at this time as the Aggies are aware of the matter and intend […]

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Texas A&M RB Le’Veon Moss was arrested early this morning for disorderly conduct. Mike Elko has now since addressed the incident regarding his team’s leading rusher last fall.

Elko has shared a statement about Moss this afternoon. It was a straightforward one at this time as the Aggies are aware of the matter and intend to handle it within the program at A&M.

“We are aware of the situation regarding Le’Veon Moss and will handle the matter internally,” said Elko per Carter Karels at GigEm247.

KBTX in College Station reported on the arrest this morning that took place around 1 a.m. CT. Moss was apparently involved in an argument where he was threatening and “speaking aggressively” someone else. After attempts were made by law enforcement and those in his party to calm him, Moss, as well as someone else with him at the time, were placed under arrest. No other details are known at this time of what caused the incident to begin with. That all comes per KBTX’s Rusty Surett.

Moss has spent the past three seasons with the Aggies. He, in 25 appearances in his career at the school, has 244 carries for 1,363 yards, at 54.5 yards per game and 5.6 per attempt, and 16 touchdowns when rushing. That includes what was a career-best season for him in nine starts last fall as a junior where he had 121 carries for 765 yards, averaging 85 a game and 6.3 per carry, and 10 scores, making him their leading rusher and a selection to the All-SEC Second Team. However, he had a season-ending injury in a loss on November 2nd at South Carolina which kept him out of their final four games.

More could come on this matter at SEC Media Days this week with Texas A&M to be the final team on the schedule with their appearance being last on Thursday. This was pretty clear by Elko, though, with the Aggies likely to only say so much on Moss’ arrest as they handle it themselves internally.



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Kentucky’s interest in 4-star 2026 PF Cam Williams “starting to pick up”

Kentucky men’s basketball is looking to land its first 2026 commitment, but there are plenty of options out there still regularly hearing from the Wildcats. A new name to monitor is four-star power forward Cam Williams (no, not the Kam Williams already on Kentucky’s current roster). The 6-foot-11 prospect out of Arizona is considered the […]

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Kentucky men’s basketball is looking to land its first 2026 commitment, but there are plenty of options out there still regularly hearing from the Wildcats.

A new name to monitor is four-star power forward Cam Williams (no, not the Kam Williams already on Kentucky’s current roster). The 6-foot-11 prospect out of Arizona is considered the No. 16 overall rising high school senior in the country, according to On3. He spoke with KSR at the adidas 3SSB Championships in Rock Hill, SC, on Friday to talk about the Wildcats’ recent push in his recruitment.

“It’s good, it’s starting to pick up,” Williams said of his communication with UK. “Couple days ago, I talked to Coach Mark Pope over the phone, he FaceTimed me, and we just had a good talk, we got to know each other and he was telling me about Kentucky and all that stuff.”

“(Pope) wanted to see where my mindset was on recruiting and if I was still open,” Williams added. “He was just trying to get to know me and my family.”

Kentucky has not extended an offer to Williams (the only school he’s still considering yet to do so), but a connection is quickly forming. Pope, along with assistant coach Jason Hart, have been ramping up the contact since they watched Williams play in Iowa during the second 3SSB session back in May. Hart was the first one to speak with him, even talking with Williams’ coaches and parents, and their relationship has been growing ever since.

Pope has been paying extra close attention to Williams’ games in Rock Hill, SC, this week since college coaches were allowed in the gym starting Thursday. Suiting up for Compton Magic alongside top-five 2027 prospect Bruce Branch III — also a Kentucky target — Williams has noticed Pope watching from the baseline.

“It means a lot, you know?” Williams said of UK coaches coming to his games. “A lot of coaches are here for me, but the biggest thing for me is communication, and they’re starting to pick that up.”

As of right now, Williams has official visits locked in with Purdue, Texas, Duke, and Arizona for September and October. Southern California and North Carolina are also on his radar. A trip to Lexington has not been scheduled, but he says Kentucky coaches have talked about it happening down the road. Williams plans to take his recruitment into next spring with plans of making a decision after his senior season ends.

Want more Kentucky Basketball intel? Join KSR Plus for access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.





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